#1Irrigation Efficiency in Chihuahua, Mexico Parr Rosson, Flynn Adcock, Michelle Niemeyer, Emmy Williams, and John Robinson Center for North American Studies Department of Agriculture Economics Texas A&M University, College Station Based on work done by Aaron Hobbs, unpublished paper "The U.S./Mexico Water Dispute: Impacts of Increased Irrigation in Chihuahua, Mexico" May 2003#2. ● U.S./Mexico Water Allocations of Rio Bravo/Rio Grande Under 1944 Treaty Mexico Water Deficit - 726,153 acre-feet Lost LRGV Business Activity from Withheld Minimum Annual Inflows: $135 Million (John Robinson) Issues/Problems Drought Conditions and Greater Water Demand Low Irrigation Efficiency (40%) Population & Trade Growth Along Border Ground Water Depletion#3Objectives • Overview of Water Treaty Provisions • Review Cropping Patterns in Chihuahua, MX ⚫ Estimation of Irrigation Water Use in Chihuahua & Savings from Improved Irrigation Efficiency Discuss Potential Policy Options to Mitigate Impacts of Water Debt with Mexico#41944 Water Treaty Administered by International Boundary & Water Commission (IBWC-El Paso) Delimits Rights to International Waters of Tijuana, Colorado, and Rio Grande (Rio Bravo) Rivers from Fort Quitman, Texas to the Gulf of Mexico U.S. Receives 1/3 of Total Flows or Minimum of 350,000 Acre Feet (af)/Year from Rio Grande River Below Fort Quitman Mexico Receives 1.5 million af/Year from the Colorado Mexico Receives 2/3 of Rio Grande, ALL of Waters from San Juan & Alamo Rivers & Half of the Flow from Rio Grande Below Falcon Dam#51944 Water Treaty Contingencies for Drought • Extraordinary Drought-What is it? - When Mexico has Difficulty Delivering Run- off of 350,000 af/Year Any Deficiencies at the End of 5 Year Cycle SHALL Be Made Up in Following Cycle • Whenever Conservation Capacities of U.S. in Two International Reservoirs Are Filled, a Cycle SHALL Be Terminated & All Debits Fully Paid#6Tributaries & Reservoirs Texas Rio Grande Rio Bravo del Norte Ft. Quitman Pecos River Chihuahua Presidio Rio Conchos Chihuahua 43% Capacity 65% of Inflows Delicias Coahuila Mexico Amistad Reservoir 80% Capacity LRGV Falcon Reservoir 100%Capacity NueRio San Juan Basin Leon ✓ Tamaulipas#7Study Area Francisco I. Madero Reservoir, Delicias 282,000 acre-feet capacity, 134,000 acre-feet on July 20, 2004 Present level: 1,002,480 acre-feet (2/14/05)#8Irrigated Crop Production, Chihuahua, Mexico, 1980-2003 Area (Million H. Acres) and Production (Million Metric Tons) 5.00 Yield Area 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.63 1.04 Production 4.26 Yield (MT/HA) 5 3.61 3.49 3.54 3.12 3.32 3.06 3.02 4 2.72 2.21 3 1.11 1.00 0.65 0.75 0.83 2 2 0.73 0.73 0.75 0.79 0.80 0.78 0.80 0.55 0.00 '80 '85 '90 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 03 '03 SAGARPA =#9Apples 7.2% Irrigation Crop Acreage in Chihuahua, MX 2003 Total Acreage: 797,289 Dry Beans Top 5 Crops, 66.Alfalfa 18.6% Pecans 8.1% 6.8% Cotton 10.9% Cut Oats 4.0% Others 15.3% Veg/Melons 9.5% Estimates: CNAS; Total of 27 crops included in study. Corn 19.6%#10Penman-Monteith Irrigation Water Use Example • Alfalfa ETo: 56.45 inches Crop Coefficient: 0.8833 Seasonal ETo: 56.45 * 0.8833 = 49.86 Annual Rainfall: 13.78 inches Estimated Irrigation Water Use: 49.86 13.78 = 36.08 acre-inches - Estimated Irrigation Water Use in Acre- Feet for Year: 36.08 / 12 = 3.01 acre-feet#115.0 4.0 Irrigation Water Use in Chihuahua, MX Million Acre-Feet 3.0 2 2.2 2.0 1.0 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Author's Estimates, CNAS#12Estimated Irrigated Water Use in Chihuahua, MX 2003 (1,000 acre foot) Pecans 360 Veg/Melons 337 Cotton 333 Wheat 83 Others 386 Apples 404 Estimates: CNAS; Total of 27 crops included in study. Corn 612 Alfalfa 1116#13Apparent Irrigation Efficiency -Delicias Irrigation District- Crop Percent Alfalfa 38 Pecans 36 Peanuts 14 Corn 32 Wheat 58 Furrow & Flood Irrigation Dominant, Some Center Pivot, Sprinkler Systems in Use#14. What is Value of Chihuahua Irrigation Water? $424/acre-foot ($652/ac in LRGV) Total Value of Irrigated Production/Total Water Used Net of Rainfall Improving Irrigation Efficiency from 40 to 60% in Chihuahua — - Saves 1.1 million acre-feet/year Valued at $472 million/year#15● Policy Options Retaliatory Duties on Mexican Agricultural Products Direct Compensation for Texas Producers Divert Flows from Colorado River • Construct New Water Delivery System Improve Existing Water Delivery Systems & Adopt More Efficient Irrigation Technology in U.S. and Mexico#16• • Conclusions Irrigation Water Use Has Increased Switch from Surface Water to Aquifer Switch to More Water Intensive Crops & Higher Yields Antiquated Institutional Framework? • Extraordinary Drought Needs Rigorous Definition ⚫ Stakeholder Input Crucial to Future Environmental Consequences of Population & Trade Growth Are Important