#1Puerto Rico Employment Trends after Hurricane Maria: Evidence from the New Puerto Rico QWI An Analysis Using Publicly-Available Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Data November 2022 Presenter: Moises Yi Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All tables and figures use data that is publicly available. United States® Census Bureau 1#2Background • LEHD recently expanded QWI series to include Puerto Rico • QWI ideal data product for several types of analysis: Quarterly frequency allows a detailed analysis of trends before/after major events QWI is unique in that it allows for simultaneous stratification by characteristics of employers (e.g. industry) and workers (e.g. age, race). As of today, QWI data for Puerto Rico is available through 2022q1. United States Census Bureau 2#3Hurricane Maria • Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico on September 2017 causing widespread devastation There was an increase in net outmigration and sharp decline in private-sector employment. Both trends were partly reversed the following year. • QWI allows for analysis at quarterly level. A key advantage relative to other sources is the availability of worker demographic data. United States Census Bureau 3#4Using QWI to study employment trends after Hurricane Maria • Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico on September 2017 (2017Q3) • This research looks at the recovery through 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic affected employment across the nation. • • All analysis employs "beginning of quarter" employment figures The Ul records underlying QWI just include total earnings in each quarter for each worker at each covered job, but we often want to observe a stock of employment QWI infers "beginning of quarter" employment based on positive earnings on either side of a quarterly boundary United States Census Bureau 4#5How is Employment Reported? Beginning-of-Quarter Job Previous Quarter Reference Quarter (1-1) Next Quarter (t) (t+1) Beginning-of-Quarter Employed NOT End-of- Quarter Employed Example: • 2017q4 begins on October 1, 2017 To be counted in "Beginning of Quarter Employment for 2017q4", workers need positive earnings in both 2017q3 and 2017q4 United States Census Bureau 5#6Outline ● • ● . Baseline Employment Characteristics Aggregate Impacts Demographic Trends Industry trends Conclusion United States Census Bureau 6#7Baseline Employment Facts (Pre- Maria 2017Q2) United States Census Bureau 7#8United States Census Bureau Puerto Rico Industry composition 2017Q2 Puerto Rico .05 .1 .15 .2 0 Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Manufacturing Admin and Support Svcs Accommodation and Food Svcs Educational Services Prof, Scientific, Technical Svcs Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Construction Information Transportation and Warehousing Management of Companies Other Svcs (except Public Admin) Real Estate and Rental Agriculture, Fishing and Hunting Arts. Entertainment, and Recreation Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators for 2017q2. Utilities 8#9United States® Census Bureau .15 .2 Industry composition 2017Q2 – Puerto Rico vs. US - 0 .1 95 .05 Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Manufacturing Admin and Support Svcs Accommodation and Food Svcs Educational Services Prof, Scientific, Technical Svcs Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Construction Information Transportation and Warehousing Puerto Rico Management of Companies Real Estate and Rental Agriculture, Fishing and Hunting Other Svcs (except Public Admin) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction US Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators for 2017q2. Utilities 6#10United States Census Bureau Puerto Rico Age composition 2017Q2 0 .2 .4 .6 Below 24 25-44 Above 45 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators for 2017q2. 10#11United States Census Bureau Age composition 2017Q2 - Puerto Rico vs. US .2 Below 24 25-44 Above 45 Puerto Rico US Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators for 2017q2. 11#12Aggregate trends after Hurricane Maria United States Census Bureau 12 12#13Figure 1. Puerto Rico Employment Post-Hurricane Maria (In thousands) United States® Census Bureau 700 -Hurricane Maria 2017 680 660 640 620 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators R2022Q3, Beginning of Quarter Employment (Not seasonally adjusted). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. 13#14Demographic Trends United States Census Bureau 14#15Figure 2. Puerto Rico Employment by Age (Indexed to Pre-Hurricane Maria employment) In percent 1.15 Above 44 Hurricane Maria 2017 25-44 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 Below 25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators R2022Q3, Beginning of Quarter Employment (Not seasonally adjusted). United States® Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. 15#16Public information available in QWI explorer An official website of the United States government Here's how was know United States Census QWI Explorer Geography Level Puerto Rico Indicator Emp-Beginning of Quarter Employment Count Get Data C Share Get Report Share 1.5 1.0 Adv Settings LEHD Home Help and Documentation United States Census Bureau Filters/Aggregations Time: x-Aus Geography: None Industries: Non Firm Ownership: All Private Ownership Firm Age/Size: None Worker Characteristics: None 0.50- N 0.0 2017 03 14-18 19-21 22-24 2017 Q2 1.000 1.000 1.000 2017 Q3 1.104 0.988 0.973 2017 Q4 0.892 0.943 0.971 2018 Q1 1.115 0.982 0.923 2018 Q2 1.381 1.074 0.954 2018 Q3 1.626 1.158 0.980 2018 Q4 1.381 1.162 1.036 2019 Q1 1.659 1217 1:015 2019 Q2 1.644 1.199 0.995 2019 Q3 1.744 1.218 0.997 2019 Q4 1.421 1.199 1.034 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 QJ Group X-Axis Quarters 11 Quarters Selected Normalize on X-Axis Age Then Age Groups Selected Normalize on Group Accessibility | Information Quality | FOIA | Data Protection and Privacy Policy | US Department of Commerce | Census Home Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, LEHDI e-mail CES QWI [email protected] 16#17United States® Census Bureau Share Age distribution 2017Q2 vs 2019Q4 0.25 0.20- 0.15- 0.10 0.050- 0.0- 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. 17#18Industry Trends United States Census Bureau 18#19United States Census Bureau Industry composition 2017Q2 vs 2019Q4 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 Construction Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental Management of Companies Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction Transportation and Warehousing Accommodation and Food Svcs Wholesale Trade Prof, Scientific, Technical Svcs Utilities Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Health Care and Social Assistance 2017Q2 Manufacturing Other Svcs (except Public Admin) Admin and Support Svcs 2019Q4 Retail Trade Information Educational Services Agriculture, Fishing and Hunting 19#20Figure 3. Puerto Rico Employment in Weak Growth Industries (Indexed to Pre-Hurricane Maria employment levels) In percent 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Hurricane Maria 2017 0 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 Educational services Information Retail trade Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting United States Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators R2022Q3, Beginning of Quarter Employment (Not seasonally adjusted). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Includes employment and earnings data by group for all states for which such data are available. 20#21United States® Census Bureau Figure 4. Puerto Rico Employment in Strong Growth Industries (Indexed to Pre-Hurricane Maria employment levels) In percent 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Hurricane Maria 2017 0 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 Construction Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Transportation and warehousing Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators R2022Q3, Beginning of Quarter Employment (Not seasonally adjusted). 21#22Industry by Age Trends United States Census Bureau 22 22#23Figure 5. Puerto Rico Construction Employment by Age (Indexed to Pre-Hurricane Maria employment) In percent 2.5 - Hurricane Maria 2017 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 Above 44 25-44 Below 25 United States Census Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators R2022Q3, Beginning of Quarter Employment (Not seasonally adjusted). Bureau 23#24Age distribution - Construction - 2017Q2 vs Share 0.30 0.25- 0.20- 0.15- 0.10- 0.050- 0.0 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99 United States Census Bureau 24 24#25United States® Census Bureau Figure 6. Puerto Rico Finance Employment by Age (Indexed to Pre-Hurricane Maria employment) In percent 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Hurricane Maria 2017 0 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 Above 44 25-44 Below 25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators R2022Q3, Beginning of Quarter Employment (Not seasonally adjusted). 25 25#26Age distribution - Finance - 2017Q2 vs 2019Q4 Share 0.30- 0.20- 0.10- 0.0. United States Census Bureau 14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99 26#27Conclusion • • ● Employment in Puerto Rico declined following Hurricane Maria, but recovered by the end of 2019 The recovery in employment levels was largely driven by the youngest and oldest workers. Recovery was uneven across industries. • Many high growth industries experienced large increases in youngest and oldest workers. United States Census Bureau 27#28Thank You! Additional Resources: • . QWI Explorer: https://qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov America Counts Story: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/09/job- recovery-after-hurricane-maria.html Contact: . • Moises Yi [email protected] • To learn more about QWI or get answers to specific questions, email CES.QWI. [email protected]. . United States Census Bureau 28 28