#1>>OECD BETTER POLICIES FOR BETTER LIVES Labour Migration in North Macedonia - How to make the most of it? Roundtable meeting Skopje, 27 September 2022 wwww ww OECD Global Relations South East Europe Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft Confédération suisse Confederazione Svizzera. Confederaziun svizra Swiss Confederation wwwwww#2Presentation Outline g) 00 1. Characteristics of Migration 2. Labour Market Outcomes in OECD Countries 3. Remittances as Income and Investment Source 4. Migration and Diaspora Policies 5. Way Forward - Policy Recommendations 2#31. Characteristics of Migration - Trends WB6 migrants in OECD countries 2010/11 (left) 2015/16 (left) Emigration rate to OECD (right) 1,200 30% 1,000 25% 800 20% gg 15% 400 200 10% 5% 0 0% ALB BIH * KOS MKD MNE SRB North Macedonia has one of the lowest emigration rates in the region with 18% of its population living in OECD countries. 600 First residence permits attained by WB6 citizens in European countries Thousand ALB MKD BIH MNE KOS SRB 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Note: More information is available at Figure 1.3 of the publication Labour Migration In The Western Balkans. Source: OECD (2016) OECD Database on Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC), The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (2022); Eurostat (2022), Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level [DEMO_GIND]. Emigration to Europe has increased by 1.5 times between 2011 and 2019. However, with the COVID-19 pandemic, it declined by 42% in 2020. Note: European destination countries include EU Member Countries, European Economic Area non-EU countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) and Switzerland. Source: Eurostat (2021), First permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship [MIGR_RESFIRST] This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99 and the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo's declaration of independence. 3#41. Characteristics of Migration - Destinations Thousand 500 Macedonian migrants are predominantly living in a handful of traditional OECD destination countries... 400 300 200 100 0 Top OECD destination countries of WB6 migrants 2015/16 2010/11 li..... ITA GRC USA DEU AUT USA DEU AUT ITA DEU ITA CHE DEU USA ITA DEU AUT FRA ALB Source: OECD (2016), DIOC BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB Number of first residence permits issued to WB6 citizens in CEE countries Thousand 40 ...but emigration to Central Eastern European countries increased by almost five times since 2013 until the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. 30 50 20 20 10 0 2013 2014 ALB 2015 BIH 2016 KOS 2017 MKD 2018 MNE 2019 SRB Note: CEE countries are Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. 4 Source: Eurostat (2021), First permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship [MIGR_RESFIRST] 2020#5100% 80% 1. Characteristics of Migration – Education levels Education level of the working-age population in OECD countries and ■Low at home ■Medium ■High 60% 40% 20% 90 0% OECD Home OECD Home OECD Home OECD Home OECD Home OECD ALB BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB Note: Data for 2015. Sources: OECD (2016), DIOC; Eurostat (2021), Population by educational attainment level, sex and age (%) [EDAT_LFSE_03]; World Bank and Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (2022) Home There is a higher share of both low-educated and highly educated Macedonian diaspora compared to the average education level of the population at home. 100% 80% More recent migrants from North Macedonia are more educated than those who arrived earlier. 60% 40% 20% 0% Distribution of education levels among WB6 migrants in OECD countries by duration of stay Medium ■Low ■High Settled Recent Settled Recent Settled Recent Settled Recent Settled Recent Settled Recent migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants migrants ALB BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB Note: Settled migrants are defined as migrants who arrived prior to 2010. Recent migrants are defined as migrants who arrived in the country of destination between 2010 and 2015. Source: OECD (2016), DIOC 5#61. Characteristics of Migration - Motivations A variety of social, economic and political factors drive emigration from the WB6 economies. If you have migrated, what was the main reason to move to another country? (%) ■Important or Very important as % of total sample Because of corruption or political instability in my home economy Better employment possibilities Improvement of the standard of living Better public/social services Better perspectives for my children Higher salaries Better health system Better education Better pension systems Difficulties to find an employment that matches my qualification in the home economy I want to be close to people I care for I want to live in a place with a higher cultural diversity Source: OECD survey, N=374. Better opportunities for my own business 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6#7- 1. Characteristics of Migration – Main drivers Skills mismatches and labour shortages in the WB6-% of respondents stating that... ■ ...aplicants' lack of skills is the reason for unfilled vacancies ■ ...emigration of the labour force is the reason for unfilled vacancies ...skills learned in the education system do not meet the needs of their job Education systems have difficulties producing needed skills, reinforcing skills mismatches and shortages. 100% WB6 development gaps as shares of EU and CEEC-11 averages (2020) 1% of EU employment rate ■% of CEEC-11 employment rate ■% of EU GDP per capita ■% CEEC-11 GDP per capita % of EU poverty headcount ratio (right axis) % of CEEC-11 poverty headcount ratio (right axis) 120% 2,000% 100% 1,500% 80% 60% 1,000% 40% 500% 20% 0% ALB BIH KOS 0% MKD MNE SRB WB6 average Source: World Bank (2021), World Development Indicators 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ALB BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB WB6 average Sources: RCC (2021), Balkan Public Opinion Barometer 2021; Balkan Business Opinion Barometer 2021 Development gaps with EU and Central Eastern European Countries remain large. 7#82. Labour Market Outcomes in OECD Countries Labour market outcomes of Macedonian migrants are comparable to other WB6 migrants. But they remain worse than those of the average foreign-born population. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Labour market outcomes of WB6 migrants in OECD countries (aged 15-64) ■ Employment rate Labour force participation rate ► Unemployment rate 2010/11/2015/16 2010/11 2015/16/2010/11/2015/16/2010/11/2015/16 2010/11 2015/16/2010/11/2015/16 2010/11/2015/16 ALB BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB OECD foreign- born Gender gaps in employment outcomes of WB6 migrants are significant, and the gaps for Macedonian migrants are larger than the WB6 average. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: OECD (2016), DIOC ALB Gender gaps in employment outcomes of WB6 migrants in OECD countries Notre Data for 2015 Source: OECD (2016), DIOC Labour force participation - Men Employment rate - Men Labour force participation - Women ◇ Employment rate - Women BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB OECD foreign born 8#92. Labour Market Outcomes in OECD Countries Almost half of highly skilled Macedonian migrants are over-qualified for the jobs they do in OECD countries - a share slightly higher than the WB6 average. Over-qualification rates of WB6 migrants in the OECD area 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ALB BIH ■2010/11 KOS MKD ■2015/16 MNE SRB OECD foreign-born Note: Overqualified is defined as having tertiary education (ISCED 5-8) and an occupational skill level that is low or medium (ISCO 4-9). Over-qualification is only calculated for highly skilled migrants. Source: OECD (2016), DIOC. 9#103. Remittances as Income and Investment Source 18% North Macedonia received remittances equivalent to an estimated 2.5% of its GDP in 2019, a smaller share than other WB6 economies. 16% 14% 12% 10% There are barriers (e.g. high transfer costs) preventing their full investment potential. Remittance inflows to WB6 economies and selected CEE countries -2019 ► 2011 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% KOS BIH MNE ALB SRB HRV BGR ROU HUN MKD SVK CZE SVN POL OECD members Source: World Bank (2021), World Development Indicators Remittance transfer costs to Western Balkan economies ■Average cost of sending EUR 140 euros (as a %) in main remittance corridors, Q3 2021 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% DEU ITA AUT DEU AUT DEU ITA CHE DEU AUT DEU FRA ALB BIH KOS MKD SRB Note: The line represents the commitment set by Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10.c to reduce the transaction cost of remittances to 3%. For Switzerland, the percentage is calculated as the average costs of sending 160 CHF. Source: World Bank (2022), World Bank Remittance Price Worldwide Database 10#114. Migration and Diaspora Policies in North Macedonia North Macedonia's main migration policy strategy is the Resolution on Migration Policy (2021-2025). A strategy for diaspora engagement is also in place: National Strategy for Cooperation with Diaspora (2019- 2023). It concentrates on: • . Improving the regulatory framework and the institutional capacities to support political and social inclusion of the diaspora Build trust and establishing and expanding the cooperation with the diaspora in different areas (education, science and youth, culture) • . However, the strategic framework can be reinforced by for example: Further develop the policy framework to support the return of students and knowledge transfers from scientific and professional diaspora Improve migration data collection Влада на Република Северна Македонија 2021-2025 РЕЗОЛУЦИЈА НА МИГРАЦИСКАТА ПОЛИТИКА НА РЕПУБЛИКА СЕВЕРНА МАКЕДОНИЈА REZOLUTA E POLMIKES SE MIGRIMIT TE REPUBLIKES SE MAQEDONISË SE VERIUT RESOLUTION ON MIGRATION POLICY OF THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA onal Strategy of the Republic of Macedonia for cooperation he diaspora 023#12- 5. Way Forward – Policy Recommendations • Strengthen the management of labour migration flows and improve the outcomes of labour migrants in destination countries. · Reinforce migration management by improving institutional co-ordination and boosting migration data collection. Support migrants' employment outcomes abroad by strengthening and harmonising curricula and skills recognition systems, and using partnerships with destination countries. Alleviate the strength of push factors for emigration. Ameliorate the conditions for living, working and investing in the Western Balkans by pursuing economic and social reforms. Improve citizens' education and labour market outcomes by strengthening skills policies and improving employment conditions. In particular, improve the quality of education and strengthen the link between the education system and labour market demand. It is important to further mainstream migration into the development of policies in key areas such as education and the labour market. 12#13- 5. Way Forward – Policy Recommendations • • Maximise the development benefits from emigration. Build trust and strengthen the engagement with the diaspora by capitalising on the many and active diaspora associations that already exist in the region. Make the most of the diaspora's financial resources by formalising remittances and attracting diasporal investments more strategically. Encourage diaspora investment by facilitating administrative and regulatory processes, and establish a dedicated interactive platform for diaspora engagement. Assist the new initiatives that support diaspora investment at the local level. Facilitate emigrants' return and reintegration into the labour market by providing incentives and simplifying administrative procedures. Continue to develop a policy framework for promoting and supporting the return of students and knowledge transfers of the scientific and professional diasporas. 13#14OECD BETTER POLICIES FOR BETTER LIVES Thank you for your attention! For further information, please consult our website: www.oecd.org/south-east-europe GLOBAL RELATIONS Policy Insights Labour Migration in the Western Balkans: Mapping Patterns, Addressing Challenges and Reaping Benefits Find the full publication here: oe.cd/labourmigration Find the key findings for North Macedonia here: oe.cd/LMMKD OECD BETTER POLICIES FOR BETTER LIVES Contact: Mr. Martin KOHTZE " www Project manager at OECD South East Europe Division e-mail: [email protected] OECD Global Relations South East Europe wwwwww 14