#1Public Opinion Poll: Residents of North Macedonia January 30 February 10, 2020 - CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE#2• • • • • • Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted on behalf of International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research by Brima market research firm. Data was collected from January 30 to February 10, 2020, through face-to-face interviews using TAPI (Tablet Assisted Personal Interviewing), in the home of the respondent by trained interviewers. A sample of 1,222 respondents age 18 and over was surveyed. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. The response rate was 73 percent. The sample is nationally representative of the adult 18+ population by age, gender, region, urbanicity and ethnicity. The design is based on State Statistical Office (SSO) estimates for December 31, 2018. Estimates for ethnicity are based on the 2002 Census. A stratified multistage probability sampling method was used, with stratification based on three stages: • • Stages 1: Probability proportionate to size (PPS) into eight regions, by urbanicity and ethnicity (Macedonian/Others and Albanian). Stage 2: Allocation of number of primary sampling units (PSUs) by municipalities within each stratum, taking municipal population size into account. Stage 3: Random selection of actual PSUs within municipalities. The "next birthday method" was used to select respondents, in combination with an ethnic quota. The data was weighted for age, gender, region and ethnicity. Age, gender and regional weights correspond to the 2018 SSO estimates. The ethnicity weight factor corresponds to the 2002 Census. Figures in charts and tables may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. All sub-group bases cited in this presentation are weighted. • This poll was conducted with support from the National Endowment for Democracy.#3Political Party Glossary AA: Alliance for Albanians Party Name Alternative BESA: Movement Besa DOM: Democratic Movement of Macedonia DPA: Democratic Party of Albanians DUI: Democratic Union for Integration LDP: Liberal Democratic Party The Left: Levica SDSM: Social Democratic Union of Macedonia VMRO-DPMNE: Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization - Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity 3#4Political Context Spring 2020 North Macedonia is expected to become a full member of NATO. April 12, 2020 - Snap parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. January 3, 2020 - A caretaker government which includes representatives of the opposition is elected. It is mandated for 100 days in office prior to parliamentary elections and it is responsible for organizing fair, democratic and credible elections. October 19, 2019 - Prime Minister Zoran Zaev calls for snap parliamentary elections. • October 18, 2019 - The European Council fails to approve the start of EU accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania following rejection by France. June 27, 2018 - Macedonia and Greece sign the Prespa Agreement, leading to a change in the country's name to North Macedonia and resolving a 27-year dispute which was an obstacle to the country's integration into the EU and NATO. May 31, 2017 - An SDSM-led government takes power following 11 years of rule by VMRO-DPMNE. The largest ethnic Albanian party, DUI, is part of the SDSM-led government. Previously, DUI was part of the VMRO-DPMNE-led government. 4#5Economic Outlook of the Country CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE#6In general, would you say that North Macedonia is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? Feb-20 Jul-18 23% 37% Aug-17 27% 33% 30% 31% 43% 1% 30% 2% 40% 2% Mar-17 14% 28% 56% 2% Nov-16 26% 24% 48% 3% Apr-16 20% 21% 58% 2% Jan-16 28% 24% 46% 3% Oct-15 24% 26% 48% 2% Jun-15 23% 28% 48% 1% Dec-14 29% 31% 39% 2% Sep-14 36% 24% 39% 19 May-14 39% 27% 33% 2% Feb-14 31% 26% 41% 2% Nov-12 27% 27% 44% 2% Dec-10 22% 30% 48% 1% Sep-10 19% 36% 43% 2% May-10 23% 31% 45% 2% Dec-09 31% 35% 32% 2% Sep-09 29% 40% 29% 2% Jun-09 26% 32% 40% 2% Apr-09 24% 36% 38% 3% Feb-09 25% 38% 36% 1% Dec-08 32% 33% 33% 2% Sep-08 34% 33% 31% 3% Jun-08 38% 32% 28% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Right direction Neutral ■Wrong direction ■Don't know/Refused to answer 6#7What is the most important problem facing North Macedonia today? And what is the second most important problem? (Spontaneous responses) Unemployment 19% 10% 29% The economic situation Poverty, low standard of living* 14% 9% 23% 10% 12% 22% Low or nonpayment of salary or pension 9% 9% 18% Youth emigration 9% 9% 18% Corruption 6% 9% 15% 27% corruption Crime 6% 6% and crime 12% The general political situation 5% 5% 10% Integration in EU 3% 1% 4% Rule of law/Law and order 2% 5% 7% combined First mention Second mention The name issue** 2% 1% 3% No future for the youth, employment for the youth 2% <1% 3% Pollution 2% 4% 6% Healthcare 1% 3% 4% Education 1% 2% 2% Agriculture, low prices of agricultural products 1%1% 2% Other 8% 12% 20% Don't know 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% *Response category also includes "problems of common people" **Name issue refers to the country's name change as part of the Prespa Agreement 7#8In your opinion, did Zaev's Government dedicate itself to solving the first most important problem North Macedonia is facing that you mentioned before?* 28% 4% 8% 34% *n=1,219, those who mentioned first important problem 26% Yes, completely ■In general, yes In general, no Not at all Don't know/Refused to answer 8#9In the next two years, will the economy in North Macedonia get better, get worse, or stay the same? Feb-20 24% Jul-18 38% Aug-17 33% 45% 32% 35% 22% 9% 22% 8% 23% 9% Mar-17 21% 33% 31% 15% Nov-16 24% 36% 27% 13% Apr-16 21% 32% 35% 11% Jan-16 26% 33% 32% 10% Oct-15 20% 39% 33% 9% Jun-15 19% 43% 29% 9% Dec-14 23% 43% 29% 5% Sep-14 21% 44% 29% 7% May-14 26% 40% 29% 6% Feb-14 25% 40% 30% 5% Nov-12 25% 34% 35% 6% Dec-10 28% 34% 33% 4% Sep-10 23% 36% 37% 4% May-10 29% 32% 35% 4% Dec-09 34% 30% 30% 5% Sep-09 31% 37% 28% 4% Jun-09 30% 30% 35% 5% Apr-09 31% 29% 35% 5% Feb-09 29% 30% 37% 4% Dec-08 33% 29% 31% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Get better ■Stay the same ■Get worse ■Don't know/Refused to answer 9#10In your opinion, over the last year has unemployment...? February 2020 10% 26% 19% 30% 9% 6% July 2018 9% 23% 30% 27% 5% 7% August 2017 13% 31% 17% 29% 4% 6% March 2017 18% 26% 11% 32% 7% 6% November 2016 18% ■Increased a lot 28% 12% 25% 9% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Increased somewhat The same ■Decreased somewhat ■Decreased ■Don't know/ a lot Refused to answer 10 10#11How is your family's economic situation compared to one year ago? Feb-20 3% 19% 58% Jul-18 5% 15% 63% Aug-17 2% 14% 61% Mar-17 % 10% 54% Nov-16 3% 12% 51% Apr-16 2% 13% 50% Jan-16 5% 15% 45% Oct-15 2% 12% 52% Jun-15 2% 11% 51% Dec-14 2% 13% 54% Sep-14 4% 12% 54% May-14 2% 13% 53% Feb-14 2% 12% 51% Nov-12 2% 11% 43% Dec-10 2% 12% 44% Sep-10 2% 10% 43% May-10 2% 11% 43% Dec-09 2% 11% 45% Sep-09 % 15% 44% Jun-09 3% 12% 43% Apr-09 2% 10% 44% Feb-09 2% 14% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% ■Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse 60% 14% 5%1% 12% 5% 16% 6% 1% 23% 11% 20% 13% 21% 14% 1% 23% 12% 18% 15% 22% 13% 1% 22% 10% 20% 10% 1% 21% 10% 20% 14% 1% 26% 18% 26% 16% 26% 19% 26% 19% 26% 16% 26% 15% 26% 17% 26% 18% 25% 17% 70% 80% 90% Much worse Don't know/Refused to answer 100% 11#12How would you describe the current economic situation of your household? 11% 1% 5% 32% 51% ■ Very good ■Somewhat good ■Somewhat bad ■ Very bad Don't know/Refuse to answer 12 12#13Is your household monthly income sufficient to satisfy monthly needs? 39% 9% 17% ■Yes, completely ■Yes, somewhat ■Not sufficient 35% ■Not at all 13#14Speaking personally, is your overall quality of life...? Feb-20 18% Jul-18 17% Aug-17 15% 59% 59% 60% 23% 23% 1% 24% Mar-17 9% 52% 38% Nov-16 13% 50% 37% Apr-16 13% 44% 42% 1% Jan-16 18% 45% 37% 1% Oct-15 14% 50% 36% 1% Jun-15 11% 52% 37% Dec-14 12% 53% 34% Sep-14 13% 47% 38% 1% May-14 15% 53% 32% 1% Feb-14 17% 51% 31% 1% Nov-12 13% 48% 39% 1% Dec-10 15% 47% 37% 1% Sep-10 13% 47% 40% May-10 17% 45% 38% Dec-09 14% 48% 37% Sep-09 16% 50% 33% 1% Jun-09 16% 48% 36% Apr-09 13% 49% 37% 1% Feb-09 15% 50% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Getting better ■Staying the same ■Getting worse ■Don't know/Refused to answer 14#15Elections and Political Parties CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE#16What issue do you think politicians talk TOO MUCH about? (Spontaneous response) Integration in the EU Personal and party interests Conflict between parties Demagoguery, political marketing Crime Name issue Economic development, investment Elections General political situation Entrance into NATO Unimportant things 16% 11% 10% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% do do do do 4% 4% 4% The "Racketeering" case* 3% Corruption 3% Law and order, rule of law 2% The Public Prosecution Law** 2% Other Don't know/Refused to answer 0% 8% 5% 5% 10% 15% 20% *Refers to the indictment of the head of the Special Prosecutor's Office for involvement in an extortion case. **Refers to the recently passed Law on the Public Prosecution, which increases the competence of the Public Prosecutor's Office. 16#17What issue do you think politicians should talk MORE about? (Spontaneous response) Economic development, investment Poverty, low standard, problems of common people Unemployment and solving the issue of unemployment Youth problems, youth emigration 30% 14% 12% 10% Education 4% Low or non-payment of salary or pension 3% Improving the standard of living 3% The future of the country, its reform and development 2% EU Integration and NATO 2% Social problems, social care 2% Law and order, rule of law 2% Other 14% Don't know/Refused to answer 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 17#1860% Which political party do you think is the best to address each of the following issues: 50% 50% 40% 30% 38% 34% 50% 36% 18% 20% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9% 10% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 3%3%2% 4%3% 4%3%3% 3%3% 3%3% 0% Environment, Support youth Support women Fight corruption Grow the economy pollution SDSM VMRO-DPMNE DUI BESA AA DOM ■ None Don't know/Refused to answer *Only political parties named by at least 2 percent are presented. 18#19Do you agree or disagree that VMRO-DPMNE acts constructively in opposition? 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 13% 11% 10% 5% 31% 25% 23% 22% 21% 21% 20% 13% 0% Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/ Refused to answer ■ July 2018 ■February 2020 19#20I will read you a list of political parties. Please tell me if you have a highly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or highly unfavorable opinion of this party. (Net favorability of political parties, Don't know/Refused is not displayed) 15% 11% 2% 22% 22% 1% 4% 4% 6% 15% 10% 11% 8% 7% 8% 12% 14% 17% 20% 19% 17% 17% 14% 14% 18% -19 -28 38% 38% 36% 47% -38 51% 57% -44 56% 64% 60% -54 -58 -63 -65 -70 SDSM VMRO-DPMNE DOM LDP Movement BESA (Party of Bilall Ziadin Sela) AA (Party of Alternative (Party of Afrim Gashi) DUI DPA Kasami) ■ Very favorable ■ Somewhat favorable ■Somewhat unfavorable ■ Very unfavorable 20 20#21To which political party do you belong? VMRO-DPMNE SDSM 12% 11% DUI 7% BESA 4% AA 4% DPA 1% Other 1% Don't belong to any party Refused to answer 40% 52% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 21 24#22I will read you a list of names of political persons. Please tell me if you have a highly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or highly unfavorable opinion of this individual. (Net favorability of political persons, Don't know/Refused is not displayed) 21% 18% 10% 29% 7% +9 22% 2% 2% 5% 3% 21% 6% 13% 13% 11% 14% 14% 1% 8% 9% 17% 20% 10% 12% 15% 12% 17% 16% 13% 14% -15 -19 -24 24% 24% -29 27% 48% 35% 59% 53% 45% 55% 64% -49 -50 -54 -56 -64 Maja Minister Zoran Morachanin, President Former Prime Stevo Pendarovski Zaev Goran Milevski, leader of DOM leader of LDP Hristijan Mickoski, leader of VMRO-DPMNE ■ Very favorable ■Somewhat favorable Bilall Kasami, leader of BESA Nikola Gruevski, former leader of VMRO- DPMNE Ziadin Sela, leader of AA Somewhat unfavorable Afrim Gashi, leader of Alternative Ali Ahmeti, leader of DUI ■ Very unfavorable 22 22#23When you think about people in political life, who is the one person in North Macedonia whom you view most favorably? (Spontaneous response) 13% 1,6% Zoran Zaev 16% 10% 6% Hristijan Mickoski 2% Ali Ahmeti Algo February 2020 6% 5% 3% Ziadin Sela 1% .4% July 2018 August 2017 3% 3% 7% March 2017 Nikola Gruevski 11% 16% 3% Bilall Kasami 2% Stevo Pendarovski 2% Nikola Dimitrov 2% 1% 5% Gjorge Ivanov 5% 9% 1% Mila Carovska 41% 45% None 31% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 23 23#2435% 30% Do you think there are conditions in the country to hold free and fair elections? 25% 24% 20% 15% 10% 5% 33% 22% 15% 6% 0% ■Definitely yes ■Probably yes Probably no ■Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer 24 24#25How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections on April 12? February 2020 46% July 2018 61% August 2017 61% 28% 7% 3% 10% 6% 21% 4% 3%1% 10% 22% 4% 2% 8% 2% March 2017 59% 18% 7% 3% 6% 7% November 2016 0% 20% ■Very likely ■Very unlikely 62% 40% ■Somewhat likely I Would not vote 60% 22% 4% 4% 4% 5% 80% ■Somewhat unlikely Don't know/ Refused to answer 100% 25 25#26How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections on April 12? (Disaggregated by age groups) 56+ years old (n=394) 56% 22% 4% 3% 10% 4% 36-55 years old (n=426) 43% 28% 6% 4% 11% 8% 18-35 years old (n=403) 38% 33% 10% 3% 9% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer 26#27If elections were held this coming Sunday for which party, if any, would you vote?* SDSM VMRO-DPMNE 7% DUI 7% 7% 5% Alliance for Albanians (party of Ziadin Sela) 2% 5% 4% Movement BESA (party of Bilall Kasami) 1% 4% 1% DPA 1% 1% 1% The Left 1% 2% Other 1% 4% None/Will spoil the ballot 2% 5% 12% 4% 6% I would not vote on the day of the elections Undecided/Don't know Refused to answer *See glossary of political parties on Slide 3. 17% 21% 20% 16% 18% 17% ■February 2020 July 2018 August 2017 21% 19% 22% 12% 23% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 27#28Attitudes toward Euro-Atlantic Integration and Foreign Relations CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE#29Do you support North Macedonia becoming a member of the European Union? Feb-20 80% Jul-18 83% Aug-17 Mar-17 77% 72% Nov-16 76% Apr-16 71% Jan-16 72% Oct-15 72% Jun-15 80% Dec-14 76% Sep-14 72% May-14 72% Feb-14 76% Nov-12 84% Dec-10 87% Sep-10 90% May-10 92% Dec-09 94% Sep-09 96% Jun-09 93% Apr-09 Dec-08 Sep-08 Jun-08 95% 92% 93% 94% Apr-08 96% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% ■Yes ■No Don't know/Refused to answer 16% 4% 14% 3% 20% 3% 21% 6% 19% 5% 23% 7% 22% 6% 22% 6% 14% 6% 20% 4% 23% 5% 20% 8% 19% 6% 12% 4% 9% 4% 9% 1% 7% 1% 6% 1% 4% 1% 6% 1% 4% 1% 7% 1% 5%1% 4% 2% 3%1% 80% 90% 100% 29#30What is most important for North Macedonia's accession to the EU? Implementation of domestic reforms requested by EU Political will by the EU to accept N.Macedonia into the EU Both of these Other 1% Don't know/ Refused to answer 10% 24% 30% 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 30 30#31In how many years do you think North Macedonia will become a member of the EU? 1-5 6-10 More than 10 Never Don't know/ Refused to answer 8% 7% 28% 35% 18% 21% 16% 25% 27% 23% 25% 25% 24% 17% 25% 21% 27% 15% 14% 18% 17% 18% 17% 16% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Feb 2020 ■ July 2018 ■April 2016 ■ January 2016 1 October 2015 31#32Do you think North Macedonia is closer to EU entry today, or was it closer when it first received its EU candidate member status?* 20-Feb 18-Jul 17-Aug 17-Mar 13% 16-Nov 16-Apr 18% 24% 16-Jan 24% 15-Oct 25% 15-Jun 21% 44% 41% 57% 59% 47% 56% 27% 35% 19% 29% 24% 24% 28% 29% 26% 50% 26% 51% 50% 26% 28% 14-Dec 28% 44% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Now ■When first received its EU candidate status ■Don't know/Refused to answer *First received in December 2005 32#33Do you support North Macedonia becoming a member of NATO? Feb-20 76% 21% 3% Jul-18 77% 19% 4% Aug-17 75% 21% 4% Mar-17 71% 21% 8% Nov-16 77% 18% 5% Apr-16 73% 20% 8% Jan-16 76% 18% 7% Oct-15 74% 19% 7% Jun-15 83% 12% 5% Dec-14 83% 13% 4% Sep-14 77% 15% 7% May-14 78% 16% 6% Feb-14 85% 11% 4% Nov-12 87% 9% 4% Dec-10 91% 6% 3% Sep-10 89% 10% 2% May-10 89% 10% 2% Dec-09 91% 8% Sep-09 94% 5% Jun-09 92% 7% 1% Apr-09 Dec-08 Sep-08 Jun-08 94% 6% 1% 89% 9% 2% 90% 8% 2% 90% 8% 2% Apr-08 92% 5% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ■Yes ■No 50% ■Don't know/Refused to answer 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 33#34How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements: "North Macedonia's interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with..." France Feb-20 25% 31% 18% 20% 6% Feb-20 55% 27% 6% 8% 3% European Jul-18 Union Aug-17 58% 21% 9% 8% 4% 55% 25% 6% 10% 4% Feb-20 52% 31% 7% 6% 4% Germany Jul-18 48% 29% 12% 7% 4% Aug-17 46% 31% 9% 8% 6% Feb-20 41% 31% 12% 12% 4% United Jul-18 44% 27% 11% 14% 4% States Aug-17 47% 25% 10% 13% 5% Feb-20 43% 40% 8% 5% 4% Turkey Jul-18 43% 30% 14% 8% 5% Aug-17 40% 33% 11% 9% 7% Feb-20 27% 27% 14% 25% 7% Russia Jul-18 34% 27% 16% 18% 6% Aug-17 27% 23% 14% 29% 7% Feb-20 23% 30% 14% 24% 9% China Jul-18 Aug-17 28% 30% 18% 17% 8% 25% 27% 15% 24% 9% T 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer 34#35Which one of these countries helps North Macedonia's national interests the most? 23% 27% European Union 18% 17% 10% 16% United States of America 22% 17% 17% 14% Turkey 18% 15% 10 Russia Germany China 289 11% 18% 8% February 2020 ■ July 2018 August 2017 March 2017 3% 14% None of them 13% 18% 17% 3% 3% All of them ,5% 4% 6% Don't know/Refused to answer 9% 6% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 35#36CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE Government's Performance#37Based on its actions and behavior, do you consider the Government of Zoran Zaev to be transparent or nontransparent? 60% 51% 52% 50% 46% 47% 43% 40% 37% 30% 20% 10% 0% Transparent 35% 32% 10% 19% 17% 10% Nontransparent Don't know/ Refused to answer December 2014 ■August 2017 ■ July 2018 ■February 2020 *Answers from December 2014 refer to the government led by Nikola Gruevski, VMRO-DPMNE. 37#38How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "The Government led by SDSM is open and accountable to the citizens and the public"? 40% 34% 35% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 12% 10% 5% 31% 19% 28% 26% 19% 0% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree ■ July 2018 ■February 2020 7% 3% Don't know/ Refused to answer 38#39Has Zoran Zaev done his job well enough to deserve re- election? 15% 54% ■ Yes 31% No Don't know/ Refused to answer 39#40Which three ministers in Prime Minister Zaev's Government were not doing their job as they should? (Up to three responses permitted) Zoran Zaev Radmila Shekerinska (Defense, DPM)* 8% 1% -1% 4% 3% 2% 1% First mention Kocho Angushev (Economy, DPM) Venko Filipce (Health) Sadula Duraku (Political System, DPM)** Bujar Osmani (European Affairs, DPM) Renata Deskoska (Justice) Naser Nuredini (Environment) Arber Ademi (Education) Nikola Dimitrov (Foreign Affairs) 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% - 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% Second mention Oliver Spasovski (Internal Affairs, DPM) Nina Angelovska (Finance) Husni Ismaili (Culture) 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Third mention - 1% Mila Carovska (Labor and Social Policy) 1% 2% 2% Trajan Dimkovski (Agriculture) Kreshnik Bekteshi (Economy) Damjan Manchevski (Administration)*** 1%1% — 1% Goran Sugarevski (Transport and Communications) 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% Other 2% 5% 6% All of them 27% Don't know/Refused to answer 28% 4% 4% *DPM stands for Deputy Prime Minister 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% **Political System and Relations among the Communities **Information Society and Administration 40#41Which three ministers in Prime Minister Zaev's Government were doing the best job? (Up to three responses permitted) Zoran Zaev 11% 2% 2% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% Mila Carovska (Labor and Social Policy) Oliver Spasovski (Internal Affairs, DPM) Bujar Osmani (European Affairs, DPM) Radmila Shekerinska (Defense, DPM) Nikola Dimitrov (Foreign Affairs) Venko Filipce (Health) Nina Angelovska (Finance) 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% First mention 3% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% Second mention Third mention Kreshnik Bekteshi (Economy) Arber Ademi (Education) 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Renata Deskoska (Justice) 1% 2% 2% Kocho Angushev (Economy, DPM) 1%1% -1% 1%1% -1% Trajan Dimkovski (Agriculture) Goran Sugarevski (Transport and Communications) 1%1% -1% Other 2% 5% 7% None Don't know/Refused to answer 40% 13% 6% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 41#42Governance and Strength of CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE Institutions#43Is North Macedonia more or less stable today than it was one year ago? Feb-20 20% Jul-18 37% Aug-17 28% 54% 35% 45% Mar-17 4% 25% Nov-16 13% 44% Apr-16 5% 25% Jan-16 15% 35% Oct-15 18% 38% Jun-15 5% 35% Dec-14 16% Sep-14 18% May-14 22% Feb-14 23% Nov-12 21% Dec-10 18% Sep-10 19% May-10 14% 51% 47% 45% 43% 50% 53% 54% 42% Dec-09 25% 54% Sep-09 27% 54% Jun-09 22% 58% Apr-09 21% 60% Feb-09 24% 51% Dec-08 30% 46% Sep-08 33% 47% Jun-08 26% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% ■More stable ■Same ■Less stable 60% 25% 1% 25% 3% 25% 2% 70% 2% 40% 2% 67% 3% 47% 3% 42% 3% 58% 2% 31% 2% 31% 4% 27% 5% 33% 3% 28% 19 29% 1% 26% 43% 20% 18% 19% 17% 2% 24% 2% 23% 2% 17% 3% 25% 2% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Don't know/Refused to answer 43#44How would you describe the current internal political situation in North Macedonia? Feb-20 43% Jul-18 42% Aug-17 44% Mar-17 5% 62% Nov-16 21% 57% Apr-16 5% 55% Jan-16 19% 59% Oct-15 29% 51% Jun-15 15% 61% Dec-14 42% Sep-14 39% May-14 44% Feb-14 39% Nov-12 40% Dec-10 42% Sep-10 48% May-10 28% Dec-09 44% 55% 43% Sep-09 56% Jun-09 51% Dec-08 54% Sep-08 53% Jun-08 44% Apr-08 23% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Peaceful and stable ■Intense and uncertain ■Critical and unstable 43% 12% 2% 40% 14% 4% 44% 10% 2% 32% 2% 17% 5% 38% 2% 19% 3% 16% 4% 23% 2% 43% 12% 4% 46% 12% 4% 41% 9% 6% 45% 12% 4% 45% 13% 3% 43% 13% 3% 41% 9% 2% 15% 2% 10% 3% 35% 6% 3% 38% 7% 4% 36% 7% 3% 36% 8% 4% 34 43% 10% 3% 13% 3% 80% ■Don't know/Refused to answer 90% 100% 44#45Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for our country or not? 11% 12% ■Yes, it is the best possible form of government for our country 16% 61% No, there are other forms of government that could be equally good for our country No, there are other forms of government that are better than democracy Don't know/Refused to answer 45 £5#46The rule of law in a democracy could be understood as "a state when all people and institutions are accountable to the law and the Constitution, and the Constitution and the law are equally applied towards all." How strongly do you agree or disagree that rule of law exists in our country? February 2020 17% 28% 18% 31% 6% July 2018 14% 29% August 2017 18% 23% 19% March 2017 12% 26% 21% November 2016 17% 30% 29% 20% 24% 4% 36% 4% 36% 6% 28% 6% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer 46#47Now I would like to discuss corruption with you. When I say corruption, I mean having to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe because someone misuses their position for personal gains. To what extent, if any, has corruption had a negative impact on you? 27% 7% A lot of negative impact 26% Some negative impact 26% 14% ■Little negative impact ■No negative impact Do not know/Refused to answer 47#48In the past 12 months, how often, if at all, have you had to do a favor, give a gift or pay a bribe? 60% 6% 3% 3% 7% ■Daily 21% ■Weekly ■Monthly ■Less frequently Not at all Do not know/Refused to answer 48#49February 2020 Do you think your phone conversations are: 35% 46% July 2018 34% 45% August 2017 39% October 2015 35% June 2015 31% 52% 19% 21% 46% 15% 50% 15% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Private and safe? That is, you and the other person in the conversation are the only ones aware of the conversation. Not private and safe? That is, there is a possibility that your conversations are being listened to and/or recorded by a third party. Don't know/Refused to answer 42 49#50To what extent do you trust or distrust each of the following institutions:...? Your municipal government 9% 31% 26% 30% 4% Education institutions 9% Government 8% do do 46% 26% 16% 44 4% 27% 25% 37% 3% The State Election Commission 6% 33% 24% 29% 8% Police 6% 40% 29% 23% 2% Public health care institutions 6% 44% 28% 22% 1% CSOS/NGOs 6% 35% 27% 22% 9% Opposition 6% 31% 24% 34% 5% Media 4% 43% 33% 18% 2% The State Commission for Prevention of Corruption 4% 25% 24% 40% 7% Parliament 3% 28% 29% 37% 26 2% Public prosecution 3% 21% 22% 50% 4% Courts/Judiciary 2% 21% 27% 49% 2% Political parties 2% 27% 28% 40% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ■Trust a great deal ■Somewhat trust ■Somewhat distrust ■Distrust a great deal ■Don't know/Refused to answer 50 50#51CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE Social Cohesion#5250% 45% Fill in the blank: Macedonia is...*/North Macedonia is...* (Multiple responses permitted) ** 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 43% 38% 15% 30% 27% 26% 10% 21% 20% 18% 11% 5% 3% 1% 0% My country My homeland My state All of the above None of the above Other Macedonia is... North Macedonia is... A split sample method was applied on this question: half of the sample was asked how they feel about "Macedonia" and the other half was asked how they feel about "North Macedonia." * n=628, margin of error ± 3.9% ** n=594, margin of error ± 4.0% 52 52#53What language(s) do you speak at a level to be able to study and work in that language? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted) Macedonian Albanian Serbian/Croatian/Bosnian English German 7% Turkish 5% Roma 3% Other 3% 0% 21% 21% 27% 83% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 53 33#54Should all citizens, regardless of ethnic background, be proficient in Macedonian language as the official state language? 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 86% 84% 0% Yes 15% 9% 5% 1% No Don't know/ Refused to answer ■ July 2018 ■February 2020 54 5.4#55Our country recently changed its name to North Macedonia. Did this affect the identity of ethnic Macedonians? 47% 7% ■ Yes 46% ■ No ■Don't know/ Refused to answer 55 55#56According to you, to what extent is there political division and polarization in North Macedonia? 9% 31% 3% 6% To a great extent To some extent 50% To a little extent Not at all Don't know/Refused to answer 56 56#57According to you, to what extent do each of these institutions create political division and polarization in North Macedonia? Government 39% 34% 13% 7% 7% Opposition 32% 37% 15% 7% 9% Media 27% 44% 15% 7% 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% To a great extent To some extent To a little extent Not at all ■Don't know/Refused to answer 57 40#58How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about life in North Macedonia? Women and men have equal conditions to advance in politics 26% 39% 20% 12% 3% Women and men have equal conditions to advance at their workplace 27% 37% 22% 12% 19 Women and men have an equal share in taking care of the household, looking after children, looking after the elderly, etc. 21% 41% 25% 12% 19 I am satisfied with my life in N. Macedonia 11% 36% 29% 24% 19 I am able to have a proper work-life balance (only empoyed)* 19% ■Completely agree 50% 21% 8% 19 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Somewhat disagree Don't know/Refused to answer *n=578, margin of error ±4.3% Somewhat agree ■Completely disagree 58#59Is there any member of your household who has emigrated to live and/or work abroad? 49% 1% 16% 15% Yes, in the last year Yes, in the last three years Yes, three and more years ago No 19% Refused to answer 59 59#60How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country's adult population are included in political decision making? How important is that [...] are included? Women 49% Young adults 63% People with disabilities 31% 0% 36% 9% 3% 2% 27% 6% 2% 2% 43% 12% 6% 8% 20% 40% 60% ■Very important Somewhat unimportant Don't know/Refused to answer 80% 100% Somewhat important ■Very unimportant 60 60#61Do you think that today's generation of young people has a good future in our country or not? 4% 19% 77% ■Has a good future Doesn't have a good future ■Don't know/ Refused to answer 61 52#62CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE Environmental Awareness: Usage of Plastic Bags#63On average, how many single-use plastic bags do you get on a daily basis to carry your purchases? None 1 2 34 50 7% 76 6 or more 2% Don't know/ Refused to answer 0% 6% 4% 5% 20% 25% 31% Average use: 2.15 single-use plastic bags a day 10% 20% 30% 40% 63 63#64In your opinion, how much, if at all, do plastic bags/biodegradable bags pollute the environment? Plastic bags Biodegradable bags 29% 6% 3% 62% 19% 11% 40% 30% ■Significantly pollute the environment, with damaging consequences to it Pollute the environment, but not significantly Don't pollute the environment Don't know/Refused to answer 64 64#65According to you, what are the best measures to decrease the use of plastic bags? (Up to two responses permitted) Incentivize use of resuable bags Forbid use of plastic bags Add a mandatory fee for plastic bags None 8% Don't know/ Refused to answer 3% 19% 50% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 65 99#66How do you throw your garbage away at home? In plastic carrier bags In plastic garbage bags In both Directly in the bin 1% Don't know/ Refused to answer 1% 24% 22% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 66 66#67Do you sort waste in your home? Do you separate waste from plastic, glass, paper, food, etc.? Yes, all the time 11% Yes, most of the time Yes, but rarely No 20% 25% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 67#68CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE Sources of Political News#69How much did you follow political news yesterday? I followed all of it 16% 22% 24% I followed most of it 19% I followed some of it I did not follow any of it 23% 28% 34% 28% 21% 26% 22% 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% ■February 2020 July 2018 ■August 2017 * Don't know/Refused to answer is not displayed. 69 69#70Where did you follow political news yesterday? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; among those who answered that they followed at least some political news yesterday) 100% 89% 90% 84% 81% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 35% 36% 29% 30% 20% 10% 6% 5% 3% 0% Television Internet, online, social media Printed media, newspapers 26% 20% 10% 9% 6% 7% Family and friends Multiple sources (TV, internet, newspapers, | August 2017 (n=710; margin of error ± 3.6) | July 2018 (n=853; margin of error ± 3.4) ■February 2020 (n=888; margin of error ± 3.2) friends) 70 0#71What are your most used sources of political news? (Multiple responses permitted) 100% 89% 90% -86% 85%84% 80% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Television 32% 35% 32% 29% 27%27% 22% 39%38% 39% 12% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% 6% 5% 2% 4% 3% 2% Radio Print media Family/ Friends Political parties Internet/ Websites I November 2016 March 2017 August 2017 July 2018 ■February 2020 71#72Which television station do you watch most often for political news? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted) Sitel 26% 11% 5% AlsatM 19% 5% 1% Kanal 5 15% 20% 8% MTV (Macedonian language) 8% 2% 2% Telma 8% 8% 7% 24 Vesti 7% 7% 6% Alfa 3% 3% 3% MTV (Albanian language) 3% 1% TV Shenja 1% 2% 2% TV 21 1% 5% 4% Local TV station 2% 2% Do not watch TV 8% 0% 10% First mention 20% 30% 40% 50% Second mention Third mention 72#73Which daily newspaper do you read most often for political news? (Spontaneous response) 4% Lajme Koha 4% Sloboden pecat 3% Vecer 2% Nova Makedonija 2% Do not read newspapers Don't know/Refused to answer 2% 83% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% ■February 2020 73#74CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE Demographics#75Gender Female Male Demographics Age 18-35 33% 36-55 56+ 32% Ethnic Macedonian background Albanian Other 11% 25% 35% 50% 50% 64% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 75#76Demographics Education Complete tertiary/higher education Complete secondary school 24% 51% Complete primary school 19% No formal education/Incomplete primary school 6% Occupation Blue-collar worker 31% White-collar worker 9% Professional 4% Agricultural 3% Unemployed 16% Housewife 9% Student/Pupil 7% Retired 21% Other 1% Working sector Religious Refused to Answer 1% Private sector Public sector 26% 74% Orthodox Christianity background Islam 64% 35% Christianity-other | 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 76#77Center for Insights in Survey Research 202.408.9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls CENTER FOR INSIGHTS IN NED SURVEY RESEARCH A PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE BRIMA GALLUP INTERNATIONAL