#1WDC LMI Update 2017 Update on Hawaii's Workforce#2Statewide Outlook by Industries Industry Sectors with the Highest Projected Growth (QCEW): COL Adjusted NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change 2015 2018 2015 - 2018 Current Total Earnings % Change 722511 Full-Service Restaurants 34,897 37,380 2,483 7% $28,538 Total Current Earnings $18,062 2016 Earnings 2016 Jobs 2016 Earnings 2016 GRP Multiplier Multiplier $1,027,185,051 $1,257,648,123 1.49 1.83 Professional Employer 561330 16,948 19,115 2,167 13% $43,342 $27,432 $730,442,454 $826,997,554 1.54 1.59 Organizations 721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 38,246 39,343 1,097 3% $54,237 $34,327 $2,111,611,609 $3,728,882,266 2.07 1.93 621491 HMO Medical Centers 461 1,498 1,037 225% $101,520 $64,253 $127,941,817 $137,058,707 2.68 1.78 238210 Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors 4,624 5,400 776 17% $87,810 $55,576 $459,591,717 95,175 102,736 7,561 8% $45,217 $28,618 $4,456,772,648 $570,584,204 $6,521,170,853 2.09 1.63 Industry Sectors with the Highest Projected Growth (Non QCEW): Current COL Adjusted NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 2018 2015 - 2018 Change % Change Total Total Current 2016 Earnings 2016 GRP 2016 Jobs Multiplier 901200 901199 Federal Government, Military Federal Government, Civilian, Excluding Postal Service 58,274 59,698 1,424 2% Earnings $60,570 Earnings 2016 Earnings Multiplier $38,335 $3,550,746,198 124 173 49 40% $73,686 $46,637 $3,271,116,008 $7,677,298,778 $4,059,413,588 2.57 2.29 2.48 1.71 58,398 59,871 1,473 3% $60,602 $38,356 $6,821,862,206 $11,736,712,366#3Statewide Outlook by Occupations Occupations with the Highest Projected Growth (QCEW): SOC Description 2016 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 2018 2015 - 2018 % Change Change Openings Avg. Hourly Earnings COL Adjusted Median Hourly Earnings 35-3031 29-1141 35-2014 Waiters and Waitresses 15,880 16,483 911 6% 3,249 $15.61 $7.33 Registered Nurses 11,423 11,951 777 7% 1,605 $43.34 $28.25 Cooks, Restaurant 8,572 9,045 710 9% 1,409 $15.15 $8.70 35-3021 47-2061 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Construction Laborers 12,162 12,556 550 5% 1,749 $10.71 $5.82 4,962 5,241 477 10% 782 $25.10 $16.04 52,999 55,277 3,426 7% 8,794 $21.25 $12.51 Occupations with the Highest Projected Growth (Non-QCEW): COL Adjusted SOC Description 2016 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 2015 2018 % Change Change Openings Avg. Hourly Earnings Median Hourly Earnings 55-9999 Military occupations 58,622 59,698 1,424 2% 5,590 $19.16 $11.15 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, 45-2092 645 705 58 9% 114 $13.26 $8.23 Nursery, and Greenhouse Secretaries and Administrative 43-6014 1,823 1,871 47 3% 106 $19.20 $11.91 Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 43-9061 Office Clerks, General 1,879 1,921 41 2% 165 $15.63 $9.65 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids 37-2011 1,071 1,103 36 3% 101 $12.68 $7.54 and Housekeeping Cleaners 64,041 65,298 1,605 3% 6,075 $18.89 $11.04#4Other Data Sources Statewide Forecast Update - UHERO - March 3, 2017 . . ● . Hawaii's healthy labor market conditions will continue. Much of the recent hiring has been in accommodations and food services. Health care has also seen strong job growth, expanding by nearly 3% last year. The next wave of resort and retail related construction and the ramping up of single-family home building will sustain activity near its current level through 2019. Federal government hiring faces uncertain prospects, now that President Trump has issues and across-the- board hiring freeze. While the Department of Defense has clarified that public Naval shipyards are exempt, the impact on other positions remain unclear.#5Risk Factors Could Impact Hawaii's Near Term Economic Future Exposure from Policy ● impact health care, government employment, defense spending, immigration. • Financial Exposure . • ● The continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar increases the cost of foreign visitors to Hawaii, making other foreign travel destinations financially more attractive. Increasing interest rates further strengthen the dollar as a investment from foreign investors. Exposure from Global Factors Continuing Global Debt Crisis Terrorism and political instability#6Agriculture Identified Target Industries: • Information Technology • Health Care • Construction . Shipyard - Federal Government, Military/Water Transportation#7NAICS Description 11 Crop and Animal Production Unemployed (10/2016) Agriculture Sector COL Adjusted 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 2018 2015 - 2018 Current Total Change % Change Earnings Total Current Earnings 266 2016 GRP 2016 Payrolled Business Locations 2016 Taxes 16,093 16,509 416 3% $29,479 $18,658 $533,738,669 458 $43,657,141 Regional Trends – Projected Job Growth by County Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs United States 3,596,174 3,684,397 Change 88,223 % Change 2.5% State of Hawaii 16,093 16,509 416 2.6% Honolulu County, HI 3,909 4,034 125 3.2% Hawaii County, HI 7,671 8,015 344 4.5% Maui County, HI 3,022 2,964 (58) Kauai County, HI 1,491 1,496 5 (1.9%) 0.3%#8ar Agriculture - Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs SOC Code Description Honolulu Hawaii Maui Kauai County, United States Hawaii County, HI County, HI County, HI HI 11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 1,732,705 5,888 916 3,510 988 473 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, 45-2092 Nursery, and Greenhouse 842,057 4,067 1,166 1,656 854 391 45-3011 Fishers and Related Fishing Workers 75,543 1,243 499 383 195 165 ALL KINE STUFF FOR SALE 39-2021 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 90,299 613 100 424 55 34 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and 45-2093 Aquacultural Animals 77,071 403 122 153 96 32 Total 2,817,674 12,213 2,804 6,126 2,187 1,096 ai Food nsamai#9Information Sector 2015 2018 2015 - 2018 % Current Total NAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change Change Earnings 51 Information $1,918,451,919 $218,677,296 $811,016,135 11,499 11,791 292 3% $69,194 Unemployed (10/2016) 155 Regional Trends - Projected Change in Jobs by County Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change United States 3,407,071 3,529,102 122,031 3.6% State of Hawaii 11,499 11,791 292 2.5% Honolulu County, HI 9,172 9,319 147 1.6% Hawaii County, HI 1,000 1,120 120 12.0% Maui County, HI 913 929 Kauai County, HI 384 396 12 16 1.8% 12 3.1% COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings $43,794#10Information - Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs Honolulu SOC Code Description United States Hawaii County, HI Hawaii County, HI County, HI Maui Kauai County, HI Telecommunications Equipment Installers 49-2022 183,360 779 601 89 61 25 and Repairers, Except Line Installers 43-4051 27-2012 Customer Service Representatives Producers and Directors 166,260 578 470 55 37 13 114,352 567 472 35 45 14 41-3099 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 159,822 556 424 60 47 22 Telecommunications Line Installers and 49-9052 79,525 406 290 62 34 19 Repairers Total 703,320 2,885 2,258 301 224 95#11NAICS Description Health Care Sector 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 2018 2015 - 2018 Change % Change COL Adjusted Current Total Total Current Earnings $137,244,119 $4,939,652,698 79,642 84,536 4,894 6% $61,150 Earnings $38,703 62 Health Care and Social Assistance $5,229,048,372 Unemployed (10/2016) Industry Change Summary 1,146 2016 Average Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change Earnings United States 21,165,561 22,624,958 1,459,397 7% $54,742 Hawaii 79,642 84,536 4,894 6% $61,150 Honolulu County, HI 60,579 64,302 3,723 6% $64,372 Hawaii County, HI 8,956 9,507 551 6% $46,012 Maui County, HI 6,940 7,321 381 5% $54,025 Kauai County, HI 3,154 3,387 233 7% $58,146#12Health Care Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, Hawaii County, Maui County, Kauai County, HI HI HI HI 29-1141 Registered Nurses 2,369,146 8,226 6,934 655 368 269 39-9021 Personal Care Aides 2,097,639 6,645 4,457 1,224 619 343 31-1011 Home Health Aides 1,190,099 5,518 4,297 668 375 177 31-1014 Nursing Assistants 1,376,983 4,679 3,622 474 293 290 31-9092 Medical Assistants 597,543 2,907 2,328 261 235 83 Total 7,631,410 27,976 21,639 3,282 1,890 1,162 wwwww#13Construction Sector NAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015-2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 23 Construction $4,373,364,551 $55,824,120 $3,522,276,179 46,205 50,791 4,586 10% $72,466 $45,865 Unemployed (10/2016) 3,447 2016 Average Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change Earnings United States 9,948,900 10,351,581 402,681 4% $53,876 Hawaii 46,205 50,791 4,586 10% $72,466 Honolulu County, HI 31,836 35,643 3,807 12% $79,282 Hawaii County, HI 6,337 6,597 260 4% $54,266 Maui County, HI 5,625 5,942 317 6% $60,378 Kauai County, HI 2,389 2,599 210 9% $55,875#14Construction - Projected Top Occupations For 2018 For the State of Hawaii Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs SOC Code Description United States Honolulu Hawaii County, Maui County, Hawaii County, HI HI HI Kauai County, HI 47-2061 Construction Laborers 1,621,331 7,047 4,771 1,073 755 448 47-2031 Carpenters 1,277,730 6,489 3,973 1,035 1,025 454 47-2111 Electricians 602,511 3,594 2,750 332 414 96 Painters, Construction and 47-2141 537,358 2,776 1,883 385 327 179 Maintenance First-Line Supervisors of Construction 47-1011 582,235 2,519 1,724 337 324 134 Trades and Extraction Workers Total 4,621,165 22,425 15,102 3,163 2,845 1,311#15Shipyard - DOD (6 digit NAICS) Industry Summary for Federal Government, Military 58,622 Jobs (2016) 2.4% $60,570 146% above National average % Change (2015-2018) Nation: -0.2% Avg. Earnings Per Job (2016) Nation: $47,046 Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 2016 Average Earnings United States 1,955,000 1,950,360 (4,640) 0% $47,046 Hawaii 58,274 59,698 1,424 2% $60,570 Honolulu County, HI 55,136 56,496 1,360 2% $62,689 Hawaii County, HI 1,365 1,393 28 2% $21,621 Maui County, HI 1,155 1,175 20 2% $22,434 Kauai County, HI 618 634 16 3% $29,462 Top Occupations – Change (Only Non-QCEW) SOC Code 55-9999 Description Military occupations Total United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii Maui County, Kauai County, County, HI HI HI (4,640) 1,424 1,360 28 20 16 (4,640) 1,424 1,360 28 20 16#16Private Shipyard - Water Transportation Industry Summary for Support Activities for Water Transportation 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 1,311 Jobs (2016) 6.3% $133,317 188% above National average % Change (2015-2018) Nation: 1.9% Avg. Earnings Per Job (2016) Nation: $82,677 Region Matson 2016 Average Earnings United States 103,179 105,102 1,923 2% $82,677 Hawaii 1,275 1,355 80 6% $133,317 Honolulu County, HI 1,120 1,183 63 6% $136,747 Hawaii County, HI 59 74 15 25% $134,119 Maui County, HI 71 77 6 8% $90,241 Kauai County, HI 24 21 (13%) $99,836 Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii Maui County, Kauai County, County, HI HI HI 53-7062 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 20,114 220 199 <10 10 <10 53-5021 Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels 7,007 129 102 <10 16 <10 43-5011 Cargo and Freight Agents 2,884 78 57 12 <10 <10 53-7121 Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders 4,474 73 66 <10 <10 <10 53-7051 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 10,225 62 57 <10 <10 <10 Total 44,704 562 481 35 37 <10#17Conclusions between 2016 to 2018 Hawaii's Real GDP is projected to grow approximately 3.7%. • Hawaii's employment is projected to grow by 1.6% • The targeted economic areas identified by Director Takayama are projected to grow faster than Hawaii's overall job growth.#18. Identified Target Industries: Agriculture Projected to Grow by 416 Jobs or 3% • Information Projected to grow by 292 jobs or 3% • Health Care Projected to grow by 4,894 jobs or 6% • Construction Projected to grow by 4,586 jobs or 10% . Shipyard - Federal Government, Military/Water Transportation • Federal DOD (Not just the shipyard) Projected to grow by 1.424 jobs or 2.4% ● Private Shipyard Projected to grow by 80 jobs or 6.3%#19Other Good News: Alterative Measures of Underemployment U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6 2003 1.4 2 4.3 2004 1 -28.57% 2005 0.9 -10.00% 1.4 1 2006 0.7 -22.22% 1 2007 0.8 14.29% 1.1 2008 1.1 37.50% 1.8 2009 3.5 218.18% 4.3 138.89% -30.00% 3.4 -28.57% 2.9 0.00% 2.7 10.00% 2.9 63.64% 4.2 7.4 4.5 -20.93% 3.6 -14.71% 3.1 -6.90% 2.8 7.41% 44.83% 76.19% 5.2 8.9 -20.00% 4.5 -13.46% 7.5 -15.73% -13.89% 3.7 -17.78% 6.4 -14.67% -9.68% 3.5 -5.41% 6.2 -3.13% 3 7.14% 3.6 2.86% 6.4 3.23% 4.4 46.67% 5.2 44.44% 8.8 37.50% 8 81.82% 9.1 75.00% 15.5 76.14% 2010 3.9 11.43% 3.8 -11.63% 7 -5.41% 7.9 -1.25% 8.9 -2.20% 16.9 9.03% 2011 4.5 15.38% 4.2 10.53% 7.3 2012 3.3 -26.67% 3.2 2013 2.4 -27.27% 2.1 2014 1.9 -20.83% 2015 2016 1.5 1.2 1.8 -21.05% 1.6 -20.00% 1.4 -23.81% 6 -34.38% 4.8 -14.29% 4.4 -11.11% 3.7 -12.50% 3.2 4.29% -17.81% -20.00% 5.5 -8.33% 4.7 -15.91% 4.1 -13.51% 3.6 7.8 -1.27% 9 1.12% 15.1 -10.65% 6.4 -17.95% 7.5 -16.67% 12.8 -15.23% -14.06% 6.6 -12.00% 11.5 -10.16% -14.55% 5.6 -15.15% 10.2 -11.30% -12.77% -12.20% 5.3 -5.36% 9.7 -4.90% 4.6 -13.21% 8.3 -14.43%#20What are the Implication for the WDC and Hawaii's Public Workforce System • Current Unemployment Rate is low, about 3%. Projections and data suggest Hawaii's GDP and employment will experience positive growth through 2018. • In the past, when we got closer to full there is increased need for basic employability skill •⚫ We are putting workers back into industry sectors that are cyclical that still suffer from the vulnerabilities of the lack of economic diversification • Kind of feel that the exposures that were identified earlier feel more pressing. Businesses need new sources of labor - Employees' market. . Economic growth can be limited by worker shortages#21Questions and Discussion