#1Technology Collaboration Programme by lea US Heat Pump Market - 2021 Update Ed Vineyard, Senior Advisor, Department of Energy Building Technology Office, USA Van Baxter, Distinguished R&D Engineer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA The HPT TCP is part of a network of autonomous collaborative partnerships focused on a wide range of energy technologies known as Technology Collaboration Programmes or TCPs. The TCPs are organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA), but the TCPs are functionally and legally autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the HPT TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries. www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#2Technology Collaboration Programme by lea US Response to International Policies Paris Climate Accord (Requires nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for GHG emissions reduction; signed 04/2016, effective 11/2016) • US withdrew on November 4, 2020; rejoined on January 19, 2021. Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol • US has not ratified the amendment yet, but in April 2021 it pledged to do so. US has enacted American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act of 2020 that requires EPA to implement HFC phasedown plans to reach 15% of 2011-2013 levels by 2036. • EPA is proposing its first rule under the AIM Act of 2020 by issuing HFC allowances by October 2021 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#3Technology Collaboration Programme by lea US Response to International Trends IEA projects space cooling energy demand to grow by over 4 times in non-OECD countries and 1.5 times for OECD countries by 2050 • R&D on more efficient cooling and refrigeration technologies. • Proposed new IEA HPT Annex on "Comfort & Climate Box" for cooling- dominated climates, Annex 53 on advanced cooling/refrigeration technology development. Future Path 1: Advanced Vapor Compression with Low or Ultra-Low GWP Refrigerants* Future Path 2: Non-Traditional Technologies (Zero-GWP) (Source: U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Office, Emerging Technologies Program) *Naturally occurring fluids may be the only options for compression-based technologies by 2050 Annex 53 Two possible paths www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#4Technology Collaboration Programme by lea US Refrigerant Policies EPA's Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) · EPA is not currently pursuing further delisting of HFCs through SNAP Some states are considering legislating to reduce the use of HFCs in new HVAC equipment - California, Delaware, Maryland, and New York are the only states, so far, with laws in-place - New Jersey and DC are working on legislation www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#5Technology Collaboration Programme by lea US Goals and Objectives Decarbonize the US power sector by 20351 Establish a 2030 net-zero emissions standard for new commercial buildings. The ultimate goal is to reduce the carbon footprint of the nation's buildings by 50% by 2035 and reaching net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050. • Modernize and upgrade buildings to be affordable, resilient, accessible, energy efficient, and electrified. DOE, GSA, and EPA Announce New Programs to Electrify Buildings, Invest $30M in America's Workforce and Save Consumers Money2 • DOE has launched the Initiative for Better Energy, Emissions, and Equity (E3 Initiative), focused on advancing the research, development, and national deployment of innovating clean and efficient building heating and cooling systems, putting $10M toward accelerating the research and adoption of heat pump technologies through: - - Nationwide Advanced Water Heating Deployment Initiative to increase market adoption of high-efficiency, grid- connected Heat Pump Water Heaters in residential and commercial buildings, Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge to accelerate performance of cold climate heat pump technologies, New collaborative research, development and deployment (RD&D) efforts partnering National Laboratories and manufacturers to accelerate the development of low to no-GWP refrigerants. New ENERGY STAR standards have been finalized for central AC/HP and residential water heater to advance heat pump technology.3 Sources: whitehouse.gov, 2whitehouse.gov, 3energystar.gov www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#6Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Minimum Efficiency Requirements & Shipment Weighted SEER for Split-System ACs and HPs 1979 First appearance of SEER for AC SEER 16 13 Effective January 2006 AC: 13 SEER HP: 13 SEER, 7.7 HSPF SCOPC 5 4 Effective January 20231: New rating methods² AC: 13.4 SEER2 (North) : 14.3 SEER2 (<45 kBtu/h; Southeast, Southwest) : 13.8 SEER2 (≥45 kBtu/h; Southeast, Southwest) HP: 14.3 SEER2, 7.5 HSPF2 1This transition is still under discussion, and it is possible the transition could extend beyond 2025. 2 In 2017, as part of efficiency standards proceeding, DOE announced changes to the rating methods and associated efficiency descriptors for central AC. (Source: 85 CFR 20218) Effective January 2015: AC Regional minimums AC: 13 SEER (North) : 14 SEER (Southeast) : 14 SEER/12.2 EER (<45 kBtu/h; Southwest) : 14 SEER/11.7 EER (≥45 kBtu/h; Southwest) HP: 14 SEER, 8.2 HSPF 2 1992: 10 Min. efficiency requirements established for AC, HP and many other consumer 7 product classes 1990 1995 2000 Effective January 1992 AC: 10 SEER HP: 10 SEER, 6.8 HSPF Sources: 10 CFR 430.32 (Current), 10 CFR 430.32 (2013), AHRI 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 HA MT OR 10 North: HDD 5000 RI PA NJ CT OH DE IL IN HU KV HU UT CO KS 110 Southwest: HDD 5000 (Hot-Dry) 030 HI TX NC TH SC AR AL GA Southeast: HDD<5000 (Hot-Humid) www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#7Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Annual New Home Construction ● · New SF and MF housing permits steadily increasing since 2011 New Mobile home and MF home sizes relatively constant since 2014 New SF home sizes trending down slightly since 2015 Miljontal Mobile Homes Total Permits Issued 2 Multifamily 1 Single-Family 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Single-Family 3 Source: census.gov Avg. sq ft (x1000) 2 Mobile Homes Multifamily 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#8Technology Collaboration Programme by lea · Residential Sector Space Heating Energy Use Total residential sector site energy consumption relatively constant from 2000-2020 - ~10.5 to 11.5 Quads (~11.1 to 12.1 EJ) - Forecast to increase by ~10% by 2050 SH fraction accounted for between 40-50% of total 2000-2020 - Forecast to drop to ~37% by 2050 Energy Consumed (Quadrillion Btu) 14 Space Heating 12 (% of Total) 10 4 2 0 2000 Total Space Heating Source: eia.gov 50% 40% 30% 20% Forecast 10% 2025F 2030F 2035F 2040F 2045F 2050F www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT 0%#9Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Electricity Price Rising electricity price for residential building customers compared to other sectors A barrier for the penetration of HP in residential sector - Drives R&D to improve the performance and efficiency Source: eia.gov cents per kWh 14 Residential 12 10 8 4 2 Commercial Transportation Industrial 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#10Technology Collaboration Programme by lea HVAC Systems in Homes Hot Water or Steam Electric, Other or None 100% 100% Houses without Central AC or HP 80% 80% 60% 60% Warm-air furnace Houses with Central AC or HP 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 1995 Single-Family Homes With and Without Central AC or HP Source: census.gov Heat Pump (Air-source or Geothermal) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Type of Heating System Used in New Single-Family Houses Completed www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#11Number of housing units (million) Technology Collaboration Programme by lea HVAC Systems by Climate Region 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 40 30 20 10 No heating Other Steam/HW HP Furnace No Cooling Indiv AC ■Central HP Central AC Total commercial floorspace (billion sq ft) 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 40 30 20 10 □ No Heating Other Pkg Htg Boilers District Heat Indiv Space Ht HP Furnaces No Cooling Other Pkg AC Central Chillers District CHW Indiv AC HP Central AC 0 Very cold Mixed- Mixed- Hot- Marine /cold humid dry/Hot humid -dry Residential Buildings Sources: 2015 RECS, 2012 CBECS Very cold Mixed- Mixed- Hot Marine /cold humid dry/Hot humid -dry Commercial Buildings www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#12Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Annual Shipments (Unitary AC, HP, and Furnaces) Miljontal 4 Unitary AC 3.42M Miljontal CO 4 3.42M Gas Furnace 2 1.34M 2 1.34M Unitary Air-Source HP Unitary Air-Source HP Oil Furnace 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 50% 40% 30% 20.0% 20% 50% 36.6% 40% 30% 20% 10% HP Shipment (% of Total Unitary AC and HP) 0% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 Source: AHRI 29.3% 50.2% HP Shipment (% of Total Furnace and Unitary HP) 10% HP surpassed Gas Furnace shipments in 2020 for 1st time. & trend maintain through 1st half of 2021 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#13Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Shipments (GSHP) Steady increase since 2003, partly due to a 30% federal tax credit for units placed in service after 2008 through 2016 - Tax credit were reinstated in 2019 and will be available until 2023.3 Sources: ¹eia.gov, 2energystar, ³energystar.gov Tusental 300 Estimated total GSHP shipments based on market penetration of Energy Star units² 250 200 150 100 Total GSHP 50 shipments1 Energy Star GSHP units shipped² 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#14Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Shipments by Equipment Size (Central AC and HP) Miljontal Residential size AC and HP (19 kW or less) accounted for 95-97% of total shipment in the past 20 years 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 ■ 2000 2005 ■ 2010 ■ 2015 ■2020 12.9-15.8 Under 4.8 4.8-6.4 6.4-7.9 7.9-9.6 Source: AHRI Residential Size AC and HP 9.6-11.4 11.4-12.9 Miljontal 10 00 8 CO 6 4 2 0 Size (kW) 187.5 & Over 158.2-187.5 111.3-158.2 93.7-111.3 173.2-93.7 54.2-73.2 39.5-54.2 28.4-39.5 19-28.4 15.8-19 12.9-15.8 11.4-12.9 9.6-11.4 7.9-9.6 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ■6.4-7.9 4.8-6.4 Under 4.8 15.8-19 19-28.4 28.4-39.5 Size (kW) 39.5-54.2 54.2-73.2 73.2-93.7 93.7-111.3 111.3-158.2 158.2-187.5 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT 187.5 & Over#15Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Key Research Challenges - Need for improving: efficiency and capacity of heat pumps for cold climates - efficiency of HPs and ACs for cooling-load-dominated climates High installed cost and lack of sustained performance/ reliability of high-efficiency systems Need for reducing GWP of refrigerants used in heat pump equipment (space conditioning and water heating) Solutions for problematic heat pump installations such as space and electrical panel constraints (particularly for retrofit & renovation applications) Decarbonization of the US power grid by 2035 Electrification of building sector Source: energy.gov www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org SHPT#16Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Current R&D Focus New Heat Pumping Technologies Regional solutions for improving HP performance, cold-climate and hot climates Integrated HP technologies for optimizing whole-building energy use Electric HPWH with low-GWP Cold climate RTUs with low-GWP Technology Type Non-vapor compression Heat Exchanger Technologies Advanced heat exchanger manufacturing techniques Next-generation membrane technologies for cost-effective integration with conventional technologies to reduce energy for dehumidification Non-vapor Compression Technologies (long term focus) Nontraditional cooling/refrigeration cycles Non-vapor compression HPWH Non-vapor compression supplemental heat for low temperature operation Reducing the cost of premium efficiency technologies COP Air Conditioning Systems COP cooling ≥ 12.3 Source: energy.gov R&D Target Installed Cost Premium per unit (2020$/(kBtu/h)) Residential: 16.8, Commercial ≤ 15.4 www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#17Technology Collaboration Programme by lea R&D Partners Emerging Technologies Program Technology Sub-Program Areas - Building Envelope - Windows Building Equipment - Lighting R&D - Building Electrical Appliances, Devices and Systems - Building Controls - Thermal Energy Storage - Building Energy Modeling Source: energy.gov Appliance and Equipment Standards Program •Identify equipment/appliances needing further R&D support; set minimum efficiency standards Building Energy Codes Program To facilitate development of appropriate codes and standards Residential Building Integration Program Commercial Building Integration Program •To bridge the gap from technology commercialization to broad market acceptance National labs, academia, small businesses, manufacturers, and other industry stakeholders •R&D to advance technology levels and support commercialization Standards and certifying bodies and technical organizations (e.g., ASHRAE, AHRI) •To help accelerate market acceptance Partnering Programs within US Department of Energy Building Technology Office www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#18Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Summary and Outlook • The US HP market has shown steady growth since 2010. - Growing at faster pace relative to competing space heating technologies. • The use of ASHPS in cold climates is becoming more feasible through promising R&D and market developments. • To cope with environmental concerns and rapid increase of cooling/refrigeration demand, current R&D emphases are primarily on advancing development of: . - - More efficient cooling/refrigeration systems including nontraditional cycles, Alternative or advanced compression cycle technologies, Lower GWP refrigerant alternatives. Governmental actions, along with public and private-sector incentive programs, promote deploying more efficient HP systems. The future of HP technologies will be highly influenced by the stringent minimum standards, R&D, tax credits and incentive programs. www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT#19Technology Collaboration Programme by lea Questions Ed Vineyard [email protected] Van Baxter [email protected] www.heatpumpingtechnologies.org HPT