Espirito Santo Oil & Natural Gas Yearbook 2021
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ESPÍRITO SANTO OIL & NATURAL GAS YEARBOOK | 2021
CHAPTER 2 EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION OF OIL IN ESPÍRITO SANTO
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2.6. Production projection
For the projection of oil and na-
tural gas production in Espírito
Santo, the use of accounting ru-
les was adopted as a methodo-
logy to capture the production
trend focused on the regional
supply of the input. The values operator, and platform. More in-
were projected until 2025 consi- formation about the methodolo-
dering a detailed analysis of the gy can be obtained at portaldain-
hydrocarbon supply profile and in dustria-es.com.br/categorias/
connection to the exploration and notas-tecnicas/arquivos.
production phases of each field,
2.6.1. Projection of Offshore
Production in Espírito Santo
Offshore production represents
the majority portion of the total oil
and natural gas volumes produced
in Espírito Santo. The evolution of
offshore extraction determines the
total volume produced in the state
and, for the next years, it is expect-
ed that this configuration will re-
main the same. It is expected that
by 2025 offshore oil production will
have an average annual decline of
2.7%, reaching a production of 64.4
million barrels. For natural gas, an
average annual increase of 1.02%
is projected until 2025, reaching a
production of 2.1 billion m3.
Charts 21 and 22 present the re-
cent evolution and the projection
of offshore production until 2025.
The downward trend in input pro-
duction can be explained by the
natural decline of offshore produc-
ing fields (Appendix I), especially
in Parque das Baleias and Parque
das Conchas, which concentrate
the State's offshore oil and gas pro-
duction. Furthermore, there is the
fact that the last communication of
offshore commerciality took place
in 2008 and that there was no of
fer of offshore oil fields in the last
traditional auction rounds. This
scenario signals a low number of
new offshore projects in the State
and the consequent concentration
of future production in projects
that were developed in the past.
2.7%
is the expected average
annual drop through 2025
in offshore oil production,
reaching 64.4 million
barrels
1.0%
is the average annual
increase expected until
2025 in offshore natural
gas production, reaching
2.1 billion m³
The downward trend
in oil production can
be explained by the
natural decline of
offshore producing
fields, especially in
Parque das Baleias
and Parque das
Conchas
With the new platform at
Parque das Baleias, an
increase is projected for
2025, of:
52.2%
in oil production
65.6%
in natural gas production
For the years between 2021 and
2023, less accentuated drops are
projected due to better use of the
production in Parque das Conchas
and the temporary non-interruption
of the State's offshore fields due to
low prices, an episode witnessed
in 2020 due to the Covid-19 health
crisis. Moreover, it is expected that
the new operator of Polo de Peroá
will invest in the revitalization of the
area and thus increase the reserve
recovery factor, which is likely to in-
crease natural gas production.
A significant change was consid-
ered between 2024 and 2025 when
Petrobras intends to startup a new
platform at Parque das Baleias. The
project provides for the unification
of the Novo Campo de Jubarte,
formed by the Jubarte, Baleia Azul,
Baleia Franca areas, parts of Cach-
alote and Pirambu. Upon imple-
mentation of the project, a 52.2% in-
crease in oil production and 65.6% in
natural gas production is projected
for 2025 compared to 2024.
Chart 21 Projection of Offshore Oil Production in Espírito Santo (in thousands of barrels)
139,490
133,869
118,721
101,517
87,144
73,891
64,781
64,443
56,589
51,836
2,218
49,617 42,353
22,090
2016
2017 2018 2019
Production Projected
2020
Prepared by: Ideies and LCA
2021 2022 (p) 2023 (p) 2024 (p) 2025 (p)
Parque das Baleias New Plataform
Chart 22 - Projection of Offshore Natural Gas Production in Espírito Santo (in millions of m³)
3,815
3,959
3,432
2,640
2,277
2,074
1,971
1,752
1,570
1,478
72
821
1,406
1,253
2016 2017 2018
Production
2019 2020
Projected
2021 2022 (p) 2023 (p) 2024 (p) 2025 (p)
Parque das Baleias New Plataform
Prepared by: Ideies and LCAView entire presentation