Chinese Zinc and Copper Market Analysis

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2017

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#1Teck Focus on China: Economic Outlook April 4, 2018 Michael Han, Chief Economist#2Forward Looking Information Both these slides and the accompanying oral presentation contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) and comparable legislation in other provinces. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts", "intends", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variation of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Teck to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include statements relating to expectations regarding Chinese economic growth, urbanization and development, and the impact of these trends on our business. These forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary materially. These statements are based on a number of assumptions, including, but not limited to, assumptions noted in the various slides and oral presentation, as well as assumptions regarding continued demand growth and supply constraints. Events or circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially. Factors that may cause actual results to vary include, but are not limited to: factors noted in the various slides, footnotes and oral presentation, unanticipated developments in business and economic conditions globally and in China, and changes in general economic conditions or conditions in the financial markets. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. Further information concerning assumptions, risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements and our business can be found in our most recent Annual Information Form, as well as subsequent filings of our management's discussion and analysis of quarterly results, all filed under our profile on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and on EDGAR (www.sec.gov). Teck does not assume the obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. 2 Teck#3China's Economic Outlook China Strives to Become a High-Income Economy • It aims to avoid the middle-income trap • Strong growth drivers remain Steady Growth is Expected in 2018 • • Key risks are under control Coal & steel benefit from supply side reforms 3 Teck#4China Strives to Become a High-Income Economy Top 10 Economies in 20161 China's Gap by GNI Per Capita² (trn $US) United States 18.62 China 11.20 14,000 12,000 The World Bank classifies high-income economies as those with a GNI per capita of >US$12,236 in 2018 Japan 4.94 10,000 Gap to fill Germany 3.48 United Kingdom 2.65 8,000 France 2.47 6,000 India 2.26 4,000 Italy 1.86 China's GNI per capita was US$8,250 in 2016 Brazil 1.80 2,000 Canada 1.53 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Teck#5Urbanization Will Continue to be a Growth Driver Regional disparity remains Urbanization Rates1 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% LO 5 GDP Per Capita, 20162 58.5% 60.0% in 2020 20,000 in 2017 15,000 36.6% in 2014 45.0% in 2020 10,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Urbanization rate based on residency -Urbanization rate based on "Hukou" 5,000 Top 5 Bottom 5 Top 5 ■Tianjin ■Beijing ■Shanghai Jiangsu ■ Zhejiang Bottom 5 ■Shanxi Tibet ■Guizhou ■ Yunnan ■Gansu Teck#6A New Megacity Will Be Built: Xiongan The New Area, about 100 km southwest of downtown Beijing, will span three counties: Xiongxian, Rongcheng, Anxin Beijing Hebei Province Rongcheng Xiongxian Baoding Anxin Tianjin • "A major historic and strategic choice" that would be "crucial for the millennium to come"1 • The decision is an integral part of measures to transfer non-capital functions out of Beijing • Innovation will be the fundamental driver in building and developing the Xiongan New Area Xiongan will be of national significance The New Area will cover about 100 square km initially about 200 square km in mid-term about 2,000 square km in the long-term 6 Teck#7Xiongan will be Larger than New York Xiongan1 7 2018 Teck#8Xiongan will be of National Significance Similar to Shenzhen and Pudong Shenzhen Special Economic Zone1 Established 1980s Shanghai Pudong New Area1 Established 1990s 2018 2018 8 Teck#9"Belt and Road" to Boost Infrastructure Significantly . . . The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has 84 approved members China has invested >US $50 billion in countries along the routes from 2014-20161 The Asian Development Bank forecasts that "developing Asia will need to invest US$26 trillion from 2016 to 2030, or US$1.7 trillion per year, if the region is to maintain its growth momentum, eradicate poverty, and respond to climate change" Rotterdam 9 Duisburg Venice - Land Routes ■. Maritime Routes Istanbul China's Proposed New Silk Road Trading Routes Moscow Nairobi Bishkek Samarkand O Dushanbe Tehran orgas Urumqi Lanzhou O Xi'an Beihai Gwadar Port CalcuttaO Colombo Beijing Fuzhou Quanzhou Guangzhou Haikou (Guangzhou Bay) Jakarta Kuala Lampur Teck#10China's High Savings Rate Underpins Robust Growth China's debt is being brought under control Gross Domestic Savings (% GDP) 1 Debt-to-GDP Ratio² % of GDP 10 60 50 2320 ° 40 30 20 10 300% 250% Debt as % of GDP 58% 56% 56% 56% 58% % 200% 59% 55% 44% 46% 47% 48% 39% 150% 33% 36% 100% 134% 139% 154% 164% 167% 166% 166% 50% 0% Brazil China India Korea, Rep. United States 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 ■2013 2014 2015 2016 Corporate debt ■ Household debt Government debt Teck#11Total profit (USD billion) Coal & Steel Benefit from Supply-Side Reforms 40 35 30 2112505 11 T Coal mining Steel production ■Jan-Aug 2015 Jan-Aug 2017 Industrial Profit Gains¹ % share of total 39% Other 29 industries Coal and Steel 800 700 61% 600 500 400 300 200 100 Total secondary sector with 31 industries Total profit (USD billion) Teck#12Summary: China • • The will, leadership and growth potential to become a high-income economy in the medium term Steady growth in 2018; moderately softer than 2017 Additional financial de-risking but access to credit will remain ample Supply-side reforms and crackdown on polluters ongoing Commodity sector strength underpinned by steady demand and continuous supply-side reforms 12 Teck#13Notes Slide 4: China Strives to Become a High-Income Economy 1. 2. Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. Slide 5: Urbanization Will Continue to be a Growth Driver 1. 2. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC database. Note: 2016 GDP per capita is the most up-to-date data. Slide 6: A New Megacity will be Built: Xiongan 1. Source: Xinhua News. Slide 7: Xiongan will be Larger than New York 1. Source: Baidu. Slide 8: Xiongan will be of National Significance 1. Source: Baidu. Slide 9: "Belt and Road" to Boost Infrastructure Significantly 1. Source: Xinhua News; Xi's speech at the 2017 Belt and Road Forum; the official website of AIIB and ADB report 2017: "Meeting Asia's Infrastructure needs". Slide 10: China's High Savings Rate Underpins Robust Growth 1. 2. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. Source: The People's Bank of China, National Bureau of Statistics of China, JP Morgan. Slide 11: Coal & Steel Benefit from Supply-Side Reforms 1. Source: China Academy of Social Sciences, CEIC database. 13 Teck#14Teck Focus on China: Zinc & Copper Markets April 4, 2018 Michael Schwartz, Manager, Market Research Lily Lei, Senior Market Research Analyst#15Forward Looking Information Both these slides and the accompanying oral presentation contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) and comparable legislation in other provinces. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts", "intends", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variation of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Teck to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include statements relating to expectations regarding Chinese zinc demand, Chinese zinc mine production and expected constraints and depletion and Chinese copper demand expectations and smelter capacity. These forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary materially. These statements are based on a number of assumptions, including, but not limited to, assumptions noted in the various slides and oral presentation, as well as assumptions regarding continued demand growth and supply constraints. Events or circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially. Factors that may cause actual results to vary include, but are not limited to: factors noted in the various slides, footnotes and oral presentation, unanticipated developments in business and economic conditions globally and in China, and changes in general economic conditions or conditions in the financial markets. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. Further information concerning assumptions, risks and uncertainties associated with these forward-looking statements and our business can be found in our most recent Annual Information Form, as well as subsequent filings of our management's discussion and analysis of quarterly results, all filed under our profile on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and on EDGAR (www.sec.gov). Teck does not assume the obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required under securities laws. 15 Teck#16Zinc Teck#1717 Thousand Tonnes Steady Demand Growth & Increasing Zinc Intensity Chinese Zinc Demand to Grow ~2-4%1 More Cars Expected to be Galvanized² 8,000 35,000 42% 45% 40% 7,000 37% 40% 30,000 35% 32% 35% 6,000 29% 25,000 24% 21% 30% 5,000 4,000 3,000 Thousand Units 20,000 25% 15,000 20% 15% 2,000 1,000 0 10,000 5,000 10% 5% 0 0% ■Others ■Machinery ■Construction ■Consumer goods Auto ■Infrastructure 2013 2014 2015 Galvanized cars Galvanized % Non-galvanized cars Teck#18Environmental/Safety Inspections & Depletions Constraining zinc mine production Most Regions Reporting Negative Growth1 Estimated Zinc Mine Growth Rarely Achieved² -43kt, -22% +36kt, +6% -50kt, Huoshaoyun -15% 28kt, -33kt, 9% -31% -58kt, -25% -4kt, -1% -144kt, +8kt, -17kt, -20% +3% -12% . Entire country under environmental & work safety inspections Blue regions are also suffering from depletion • 2017 mine production down 1% YoY 18 Thousand Tonnes 600 400 360 350 270 300 250 200 200 180 135 100 60 0 -50 -200 -400 -600 -630 -800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Early-year estimate Adjusted estimate Teck#1919 Zinc Mine Projects Increasingly Delayed. Impacted by inspections and low zinc ore grades Future Mine Growth Heavily Dependent On One Single Project¹ Mine Depletion & Low Grades of Projects² Thousand Tonnes 1000 2017 2018 800 145kt 136kt 600 400 200 Chaihe-Erdaohe stage 2 0 Niukutou Panlong Biliyagu Aerhada stage Baoshan engpan Bachagou West Kouhezi Wolitu Beishan 8 2019-2020 7 886kt 3 6 Changba Chagan Jiawula olajier Bangzhong Lijia Jinshi Yaojialing Wenshan Dulong Ore Grade, Zinc % 5 + 2 1 0 ■Existing mines ■New projects Teck#2020 20 Thousand dmt 500 China to Require More Zinc Concentrate Imports Concentrate Stocks Rise, Seasonal Build Insufficient¹ 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 China Will Have to Import More Zinc in Concentrate² 250 1,561 1,600 1,452 1,456 1,447 200 150 100 50 TCs on Imports ($/dmt) 0 Thousand Tonnes, Zinc in Concentrates 1,400 1,200 1,101 1,000 854 800 600 400 200 0 Port Concs Stocks TCs on Imported Concs The seasonal winter build in concs stocks was done at high cost (low TCs) to smelters; 2017 build was insufficient to cover requirements, increasing scope for imports Teck#21Thousand Tonnes Increasing Demand for Zinc Metal Imports De-stocking to Continue Despite Seasonal Rebound 1 More Imported Zinc Metal Required to Fill the Gap³ 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 ■Smelter + Consumer Stocks² 1,600 ■Bonded Stocks 1,400 ■Domestic Commercial Stocks 1,200 Thousand Tonnes 1,000 800 652 600 525 400 200 0 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13- Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 784 1,382 1,328 1,261 21 Seasonal metal build heavily weighted to imported bonded stocks; If China does import 1.4 Mt of concentrates, still requires 1.3 Mt of metal imports Teck#22Copper Teck#2323 Thousand Tonnes Steady Demand Growth & Increasing Copper Intensity Increasing Copper Intensity with Booming Electric Vehicles² Chinese Copper Demand to Grow ~3-4%1 12,000 1,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 ■ Others ■ Appliances ■Transport ■Construction 2019E Machinery Power 2020E Thousand Tonnes 800 7 million EVs in 2025 600 2 million EVs in 2020 400 200 0 ■Plug-in CVs Battery Electric CVs ■Commercial Vehicles (CVS) ■Plug-in PVs Battery Electric PVs Passenger Vehicles (PVS) Teck#2424 Thousa ousand Tonnes/ / Year 13th Five-Year Plan Driving Copper Demand (2016-2020) Potential Annual Growth in Most Sectors1 300 250 200 150 100 50 282 202 71 60 21 19 -7 -75 Trillion Significant Power Grid Investment² 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Up -37% 20% Up -42% -50 -100 Power grid Building & construction Renewable energy EVs EV Charging infrastructure Urban transit system Railway Road RMB 1.5 23% 37% 1.0 25% 0.5 52% 43% 0.0 11th - 5yr Plan Completed 12th - 5yr Plan Completed 13th - 5yr Plan Estimate ■Transmission Distribution-Urban Distribution-Rural Teck#25Rapid Growth in Chinese Copper Smelter Capacity Limited domestic mine growth Chinese Copper Mine Projects1 +2Mt of Smelting Projects in the Pipeline² 400 2017 2018 2019 280 kt 1,640 kt 230 kt 300 0 Dabaoshan Hongniu Zhibula Shaxi Pulang Jinchuan expansion Tongshan expansion Thousand Tonnes Qulong Duobaoshan phase II Chengmengshan Xiongcun 100 FengkaiYuanzhuding Chifeng Fubo Hongnipo 200 300 T T 2017 2018 2019 2020 400 104 kt 36 kt 123 kt 121 kt Thousand Tonnes, Blister 100 200 45 25 Yantai Guorun Heding YCC Yimen YCC Dianzhong Zhongqi Copper Qinghai Copper Lingbao Jincheng Tongling Jinchang Qinghai Copper Chinalco Nanguo Copper Baiyin YCC Chifeng Yantai Guorun Chifeng Jinjian Zijin Teck#2626 Thousand Tonnes China More Important in Global Copper Market Buying more copper from the rest of the world Substantial Concentrate Imports Growth1 Continuous Growth of Imported Copper Units 2 10,000 45% 12,000 40% 37% 40% 10,000 8,000 33% 35% 29% 30% 30% 8,000 6,000 24% 22% 25% 19% 15% 20% 4,000 14% 15% 2,000 10% Thousand Tonnes 6,000 4,000 2,000 5% 0 0 0% Scope for Concentrate Imports Chinese Mine Production 2019E 2020E Demand for imported cathodes shifting towards concentrate and scrap; Copper scrap imports to drop 300-400 kt under China's ban ■Copper anode imports ■Copper cathodes Imports ■Copper scrap imports ■Copper concs Imports Teck#27Notes Slide 17: Steady Demand Growth & Increasing Zinc Intensity 1. 2. Source: NBS/CNIA, CAAM, ChinalOL, Wind, CEIC, Teck. Source: Mysteel, Teck. Slide 18: Environmental/Safety Inspections & Depletions 1. 2. Source: NBS/CNIA. Source: BGRIMM, Antaike, Teck. Slide 19: Zinc Mine Projects Increasingly Delayed 1. 2. Includes mine projects with zinc capacity >20 ktpa. Source: BGRIMM, Antaike, Teck. Source: BGRIMM. Slide 20: China to Require More Zinc Concentrate Imports Source: MyMetal, Industrial sources, Teck. 1. 2. Source: China Customs, Wood Mackenzie, Teck. Slide 21: Increasing Demand for Zinc Metal Imports 1. 2. 3. Source: SHFE, MyMetal, SMM, Industrial sources, Teck. "Smelter + consumer stocks" refers to zinc metal held in the plants of smelters and semi producers and those on the road; "Bonded stocks" refers to zinc stored in bonded zones and will need to complete Customs clearance before entering China; "Domestic commercial stocks" refers to zinc stored in SHFE warehouses and other domestic commercial warehouses not registered in SHFE. Source: China Customs, Wood Mackenzie, Teck. Slide 23: Steady Demand Growth & Increasing Copper Intensity 1. 2. Source: NBS, ICA, Wood Mackenzie, CEC, ChinalOL, Teck. Source: Government plans, CAAM, ICA, Teck. Slide 24: 13th Five-Year Plan Driving Copper Demand (2016-2020) Source: ICA. 1. 2. Source: CEC, ICA. Slide 25: Rapid Growth in Chinese Copper Smelter Capacity 1. 2. Includes mine projects with copper capacity >10 ktpa. Source: BGRIMM. Source: CRU, BGRIMM, SMM, Teck. Slide 26: China More Important in Global Copper Market 1. 2. Source: China Customs, Wood Mackenzie, BGRIMM, Teck. Source: China Customs, Wood Mackenzie, SMM, Teck. 27 Teck#28Teck Focus on China April 4, 2018 Michael Han, Chief Economist Michael Schwartz, Manager, Market Research Lily Lei, Senior Market Research Analyst

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