#1SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU The Many Faces of South Dakota Past, Present and Future Dr. Weiwei Zhang State Demographer Director, State Data Center Assistant Professor Department of Sociology and Rural Studies South Dakota State University Scobey Hall 234 [email protected] 4th Annual South Dakota State Demography Conference May, 2016#2SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU This presentation is... A demographic narrative of South Dakota With a look back to the history And an focus on the present and future.#3SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Are We Growing?#4SDSU SDC The U.S. Premier 900,000 SOUTH DAKOTA - STATE POPULATION GROWTH FROM 1860 TO 2010 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -49,888 -15,007 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 YEAR 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010#5SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Percent Change, 2000-2010 9.7 7.9 li 4.1 United States South Dakota 7.8 9.7 6.7 4.7 14.1 Iowa Minnesota Montana Nebraska North Wyoming Dakota#6SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Sub-Geography • • County: N=66 County Based Statistical Area (CBSA): metropolitan counties and micropolitan counties. Metropolitan: Sioux Falls, SD, Rapid City, SD, and partially Sioux City, IA-NE-SD contain at least one urbanized area of 50,000 population or more • 8 counties Micropolitan: Spearfish, Vermillion, Watertown, Yankton, Pierre, Aberdeen, Mitchell, Huron, Brookings • • areas with at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population 13 counties#7Counties in South Dakota by Metropolitan and Micropolitan Classification W Spearls frcity Aberdeen city Watertown city Pierre city Huron city Brookings city Rapid City ally Urban Core of CBSA CBSA Boundary Rural County Micropolitan County Metropolitan County Source: Metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas (metro and micro areas) are geographic entities delineated by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The term "Core Based Statistical Area" (CBSA) is a collective term for both metro and micro areas. Prepared by State Data Center, South Dakota State University Mitchel alty Sioux Falls city 0 12.5 25 Yankton city 50 50 75 100 Miles#8Percent Population Change between 2000 and 2010 South Dakota Counties Campbell County McPherson County Marshall County Corson County Roberts County Harding County Brown County Perkins County Walworth County Edmunds County Day County Grant County Butte County Meade County Lawrence County W- Dewey County Potter County Faulk County Codington County Ziebach County Spink County Clark County Deuel County Hamlin County Sully County Hand County Hyde County Hughes County Stanley County Beadle County Kingsbury County Brookings County Haakon County E Pennington County Buffalo County Jerauld County Sanborn County Miner CountyLake County Moody County Jones County Lyman County Custer County Jackson County Mellette County Brule County Aurora County Davison County Hanson County McCook County Minnehaha County Douglas County Shannon County Tripp County Fall River County Bennett County Todd County Hutchinson County Turner County Lincoln County Charles Mix County Gregory County Bon Homme County Yankton County Clay County Union County Loss greater than 10% Loss 5-10% Loss less than 5% Gain less than 5% Gain 5-50% 0 12.5 25 50 75 Gain greater than 50% 100 Miles#9SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU From 2000 to 2010... # Change % Change South Dakota 59,336 7.9 Minnehaha 21,187 14.3 Pennington 12,383 14.0 Lincoln 20,697 85.8 Clark -452 -10.9 Fall River -359 -4.8 Hutchinson -732 -9.1#10SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner POPULATION GROWTH FROM 1880 TO 2010 OF SELECTED COUNTIES: MINNEHAHA, PENNINGTON, LINCOLN 29,631 23,926 21,879 57,697 50,872 42,490 70,910 95,209 86,575 109,435 123,808 148,282 88,565 81,343 70,361 58,195 59,349 169,468 100,948 44.828 8251 34,053 5896 9.143 2244 12,161 5,610 12,453 12,928 20,079 23,799 1880 13,918 1890 13,171 1900 12,767 1910 12,371 1920 11,761 24,131 13,942 1930 15,427 1940 1950 1960 Lincoln County -Minnehaha County Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 SDSU Pennington County#11The Pr 15,000 14,000 POPULATION CHANGE BETWEEN 1880 AND 2010 FALL RIVER, HUTCHINSON, CIARK COUNTY, SOUTH DAKOTA 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Fall River County Hutchinson County -Clark County 1880 1890 1900 1910 SDSU Ⓡ 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010#12SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner 100% Percent of the State Population by Metro, Urban Non-Metro, Rural Status, 1990-2014 90% 20.4 19.6 23.3 25.7 80% SDSU 70% 32.7 33.2 60% 34.4 35.1 50% 40% 30% 47.7 46.3 42.4 20% 39.2 10% 0% 900 1990 2000 Metropolitan Counties 2010 I Urban Counties, non-metro 2014 Rural Counties#13SDC The U.S. Censu Premier Loca COUNTY POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2014, ACROSS THE GEOGRAPHY OF 12 STATES SDSU North Dakota Minnesota South Dakota lowa Nebraska Kansas Missouri Michigan Wisconsin Ohio Illinois Indiana N Loss: >15% Stable: bewteen 5% Loss and 5% Increase 0 62.5 125 250 375 500 Miles Loss: 5-15% Increase: 5-15% By State Data Center, South Dakota State University Increase: 15-30% Increase: 30-50% Increase: >50%#14SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Many Faces: Youth and Elderly#15SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU South Dakota is one of: The ten States With the Highest Percent's Under Age 15 and Age 65 and Over: 1900, 1950, and 2000#1645 40 40 35 30 Percent Youth and Elderly, South Dakota 1900-2010 25 20 20 -Youth (Under 15 Years) -Elderly (65 Years and Over) 15 10 5 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 SDSU Ⓡ#17SDC The U.S. Census Bu Premier Local Pa DISTRIBUTION OF YOUTH POPULATION AS A SHARE OF THE COUNTY POPULATION ACROSS THE GEOGRAPHY OF 12 STATES N A North Dakota Minnesota South Dakota Iowa Nebraska Kansas Missouri Wisconsin Michigan Ohio Illinois Indiana State Boundary <=20% >20% and <=25% >25% and <=30% Miles >30% and <=35% >35% 0 62.5 125 250 375 500 By State Data Center, South Dakota State University Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-year ACS estimates. Prepared by State Data Center Ⓡ SDSU#18SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Par✶--- SDSU Population trends: GLOBAL U.S. NUMBER PERCENT 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 2035 projection 65 and older: 15 to 64: PROJECTIONS 20.9% 60.5% Younger than 15: 18.6% Total: 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 65 and older 15 to 64 2000 2010 Younger than 15 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: 2012 Revision, June 2013#19Population Aged 65 and Plus Data: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Prepared by State Data Center, South Dakota State University < 5% >= 5% and < 15% >= 15% and < 20% >= 20% and < 30% >= 30% United States = 13.7%#20SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Prem Lincoln County, South Dakota, 2010 Males +100 90 -80 -70 -60- -50 -40 -30 -20- 10- Females Mean age: 33.5 Median age: 32.0 Dependency ratio: 53.2 Aging index: 9.0 0 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 SDSU#21SDC The US Census Bureau's Premi SDSU Mean age: 44.1 Median age: 46 Hutchinson County, South Dakota, 2010 Males Dependency ratio: 79.0 Aging index: 25.0 1.00 100 -90 - 80 -70 - 60 -50 Females 业 0.75 0.50 0.25 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00#22SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner Percent Population in Poor By Age Group Population State Total Population Under 18 Population 18 to 64 years Population 65 years and years over Illinois 14.10% 19.90% 13.00% 8.50% Indiana 15.40% 21.80% 14.50% 7.30% Iowa 12.40% 16.10% 12.20% 7.40% Kansas 13.70% 18.70% 13.00% 7.60% Michigan 16.80% 23.60% 16.20% 8.20% Minnesota 11.50% 14.70% 10.90% 8.00% Missouri 15.50% 21.60% 14.60% 8.90% Nebraska 12.80% 17.40% 12.00% 7.80% North Dakota 11.90% 14.10% 11.40% 10.80% Ohio 15.80% 22.80% 14.90% 8.00% South Dakota 14.10% 18.20% 13.10% 11.00% Wisconsin 13.00% 18.10% 12.30% 7.80% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-year ACS estimates. Universe: Population with poverty status determined SDSU#23SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Many Faces: Non-White Populations#24SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Par NON-WHITE POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF COUNTY POPULATION, SOUTH DAKOTA <=5% >5% and <=10% >10% and <=20% >20% and <=50% >50% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-year ACS estimates. Prepared by State Data Center SDSU#25SDC The U.S. Census Burear Premier Local Partn GROUP COMPOSITION OF THE MINORITY POPULATION BY COUNTY, SOUTH DAKOTA NH_Black NH_Asian AmericanIndian Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-year ACS estimates. Prepared by State Data Center Ⓡ SDSU#26SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Race/Ethnicity Composition of the State Population, 2000 and 2010 Race/Ethnicity 2000 2010 White, Alone 88.7% 85.9% Black, Alone 0.6% 1.3% American Indian and Alaska Native, Alone 8.3% 8.8% Asian, Alone 0.6% 0.9% Hispanic, Alone 1.4% 2.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000 and 2010. Prepared by State Data Center#27SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Many Faces: Foreign-Born#28The Pr 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Foreign-Born Population and Percentage of Total Population South Dakota: 1860-2014 120,000 100,000 ■Foreign-Born Population Percent of Total Population 80,000 0.0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014 SDSU Note: (1) Data shown for 1860 to 1880 for South Dakota are for the Dakota Territory and include North Dakota. South Dakota and North Dakota were formed from Dakota Territory and admitted as states in 1889. (2) Data shown for 1950 and after are sample data. (3) Source: U.S. Census Bureau 60,000 40,000 20,000#29SDC The U.S. Premie % Population by Place of Birth in the Foreign Born Population South Dakota, 1990-2013 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 2000 2013 SDSU Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 one-year ACS estimates and Decennial Census 1990 and 2000. Prepared by State Data Center Born in Ocreania Born in Latin America Born in Europe Born in Asia Born in Africa#30SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Newly arrived foreign born, 2008 19% Newly arrived foreign born, 2005-2007 13% Foreign born arrived, prior to 2005 68%#31SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU Native Foreign born EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Less than high school graduate 8.50% 32.70% High school graduate 31.70% 24.70% Some college or associate's degree 33.00% 16.20% Bachelor's degree 18.90% 11.80% Graduate or professional degree 7.80% 14.60% Median Household income (dollars) 50,712 38,923 Average number of workers per household 1.25 1.47#32SDC The U.S. Census Bureau's Premier Local Partner SDSU End of this presentation. But, there are many other changes in our state and local populations beyond the coverage of this presentation...