#1FUTURE AGENDA Open Foresight AA The Future of Autonomous Vehicles Global Insights gained from Multiple Expert Discussions 1 May 2020 CC creative commons#2FUTURE AGENDA CONTEXT WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM · THE WAY FORWARD • • • CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES RESEARCH INSIGHTS CONCLUSIONS MORE INFORMATION Contents This document provides an overview of the key insights on the future of AV. Based on insight from multiple expert discussions, it shares different views and highlights the core areas of progress, and associated implications, that we can anticipate by 2030.#3FUTURE AGENDA CC AUTONOMOUS DRIVE CONTEXT#4FUTURE AGENDA Sα- A wicked problem is a social or cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: 1. 2. 3. 4. 1/3 Incomplete or contradictory knowledge, The number of people and opinions involved, The large economic burden, and The interconnected nature of this with other problems. A Wicked Problem The future of autonomous vehicles is considered to be a complex 'wicked' problem. To address it, we need to understand and challenge many different expert perspectives.#5FUTURE AGENDA FUTURE AGENDA VEHICLE LANDSCAPE Review existing research Map the emerging landscape 111 FUTURE AGENDA THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Maple Expert D Explore gaps via global dialogue Identify the key priority opportunities Prepare and Support hosts with share global report implications Global Insights This project has identified where and what the key opportunities are by collectively challenging and sharing the future of AVS plus the key drivers of change across a number of pivotal locations.#6FUTURE AGENDA Future of Autonomous Vehicles Key Insights Frankfurt 22 MAY 2019 C Common Standards Inadequate Harmonisation More Congestion O Truck Automation Incentives for Collaboration First/Last Mile F Communication between Systems Acceptance of Accidents Cyber Security Risks Silicon Valley Crash Avoidance Cyber-Security Common Standards 11 FEB 2020 AV Certification Rethinking Planning Intelligent Infrastructure Regulation AI/HD Mapping Automated Freight Los Angeles London 05 JUL 2019 Toronto 04 NOV 2019 28 MAR 2019 Austin 24 OCT 2019 Inadequate Harmonisation Rethinking Planning Common Standards Mobility as a Service Public Private Partnerships First / Last Mile Deeper Collaboration Social Impact Data Connectivity Road Deaths per 100,000 Citizens (WHO, 2018) TOTAL China 18.2 UAE 18.1 USA 12.4 New Zealand Canada Germany Japan Singapore 3.6 3.1 Sweden 2.8 Top 3 Challenges O Top 3 Opportunities Top 3 Future Issues Gothenburg 30 SEP 2019 Tokyo Shanghai 06 JUL 2018 FUTURE AGENDA Open Foresight Dubai Impact of Regulation Cyber Security Social Impact 17 OCT 2019 Public Transport Systems Automated Freight Controlled Environments Data Sharing Rethinking Transport Planning Robo-taxi Fleets 13 JUN 2019 30 APR 2019 Melbourne Data Sharing More Congestions Security Systems O Full Truck Automation First/Last Mile Robo-taxi Model F Reimagining Planning Safety of AV ROI Singapore (ITS) C Cyber-Security Impact of Regulation Crash Avoidance 20 OCT 2019 O Automated Freight Controlled Environments Public Transport Systems Rethinking Planning Social Impact Data Sharing Singapore Data Sharing 07 JUN 2019 Inadequate Harmonisation Security Systems Robo Taxis Truck Automation Urban Delivery Environmental Impact Insurance and Liability Less vs More Congestion Top 25 AV Ready Nations Wellington Data Sharing Security Systems Common Standards O Rethinking Planning TI 11 JUN 2019 Remote Support Centres First / Last Mile Social Equity AV is Public Transport MaaS KPMG https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/nl/pdf/2019/sector/autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index-2019.pdf Expert Dialogue We held eight expert workshops plus six extra discussions which have identified major challenges, new opportunities and emerging issues for the next decade.#7FUTURE AGENDA MOVI DB Australia & New Zealand Driverless Vehicle Initiative DRIVE SWEDEN HOCHSCHULE ✓ FRESENIUS UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES NZTRANSPORT AGENCY WAKA KOTAHI LKY Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University of Singapore M Metro SIEMENS Transurban suiting FRANKFURT HOLM HOUSE OF LOGISTICS AND MOBILITY M MOTT Σ MACDONALD E BRISTOL University of the West of England wsp Our Hosts and Partners Leading organisations involved in the hosting of events included a broad mix of transport agencies, universities, consultancies, trade bodies and logistics companies DB#8FUTURE AGENDA CC WHERE WE HAVE COME FROM#9FUTURE AGENDA Future of Autonomous Vehicles Where we have come from 1939. GM Futurama Concept - World's Fair - New York 1945. Cruise control invented Google completes 500,000. miles of autonomous driving Caterpillar starts robotics trail 1953. RCA Labs test wire-guided miniature car NuTonomy spun out of MIT 2014- 1963. UK TRRL automatic vehicle guidance research project launched Port of Rotterdam launches 1967. Remote controlled car tested 2013 • at Ohio State University 1968. Vienna Convention on Road Traffic enforces driver control of car automated guided vehicles FlixMobility founded in Germany Amazon acquires Kiva Systems for $775m -- 1977 • First Semi-Automated Vehicle Test - Tsukuba, Japan Lyft founded as Zimride 1980. German Bundeswehr tests military robot vehicle Google Baidu Tesla Lyft Uber Volvo Amazon predicts drone deliveries within 5 years Tesla announces Autopilot UK Government allows AV testing Oxbotica spun out of Oxford University Mercedes S Class includes semi-automated features Google fully automated prototype tested NIO founded in Shanghai Uber recruits key talent from CMU robotics centre Tesla Autopilot capability. introduced Audi, BMW and Daimler acquire HERE for $3bn from Nokia Volvo launches Drive Me project in Sweden Volvo pledges that by 2020 no one will be killed in a Volvo GM invests $500m in Lyft autonomous vehicle partnership GM acquires Cruise Automation for $1bn Apple invests $1bn in Chinese ride share Didi Chuxing Ford and VC firms invest in NuTonomy Qualcomm acquires NXP for $39bn Toyota and Uber announce partnership Lyft announces partnership with NuTonomy Peugeot-PSA announces partnership with NuTonomy Uber completes 2m miles in automated testing Bosch and Nvidia announce Al partnership Intel acquires Mobileye for $15bn Apple starts testing autonomous vehicles Ford invests $1bn in Argo Al Audi and Nvidia announce Al partnership Daimler and Nvidia announce Al partnership 2017 • Intel invests in HERE 2018- Waymo spun off as separate company from Google Amazon drone testing in Cambridge, UK Tesla Autopilot completes 300m miles of operation US Federal AV policy agreed Pony.ai founded Samsung acquires Harman Industries for $8bn Uber AV prototypes in San Francisco and Pittsburgh Drive.ai spun out of Stanford University Uber acquires Otto truck start-up Starsky Robotics truck technology unveiled Baidu announces Apollo AV platform and fund US Federal AV policy 2.0 agreed Ford Lyft partnership announced Lyft partners with drive.ai Waymo testing without a safety driver. NuTonomy acquired by Aptiv for $400m Tesla semi-truck announced Beijing permits AV testing on public roads US Federal AV policy 3.0 agreed Waymo semi truck announced Self-driving Uber car kills pedestrian Baidu completes 140,000 km of self-driving in a year in Beijing Volvo launches Vera autonomous platform --- PJA Lyft completes 5,000 self- driving car rides in Las Vegas 2019 China permits city governments to issue AV road licences Baidu begins mass production of Apollo self-driving bus Uber shuts down AV truck project Waymo completes 5m miles of testing 2020 and beyond • Didi Chuxing spins out self-driving car unit • Ford acquires Journey Holding and Quantum Signal Al Baidu completes 1m miles of test driving Toyota partners with Baidu's Apollo platform Amazon announces launch of drone delivery for Prime Apple acquires Drive.ai Volvo and Uber launch self-driving production car Lyft IPO Uber IPO Rio Tinto starts autonomous truck mining with Caterpillar Inc Tesla 'Autonomy Day' announcements Tesla driver killed in Autopilot mode Port of Rotterdam tests autonomous navigation California DMV grants permit to Waymo for testing Apollo shuttle bus trial at Shanghai Expo Waymo subsidiary established in Shanghai Google completes 300,000 automated driving miles 2015. Apple launches project Titan 1987. EU Eureka Prometheus Project launched 2012 • Florida authorises AV testing 1991 • US Congress passes the ISTEA Transportation Authorization bill Peloton truck AV company founded 1994. Eureka Prometheus project robotic cars drive 1000km 2011- Nevada authorises AV testing 1995. Carnegie Mellon first US coast-to-coast autonomous drive 4500km 2010 ⚫ TUB self-driving vehicles demo in Germany 1995. Mercedes S Class drives from Munich to Copenhagen using computer vison Uber founded 2016 1996 • Advanced Cruise-Assist Highway Research Association Demo - Japan 2009- Google Self-Driving Car project launched 1997 • USDOT Automated Highway System Demo - San Diego, California 2008 • Rio Tinto launch Mine of the Future project 1998 Google founded 2007- DARPA Urban Challenge - California 1999. Mobileye founded - Tel Aviv 2005. DARPA Grand Challenge - California 2000. Adaptative cruise control launched by Bosch Baidu founded 2004 • DARPA Grand Challenge - California 2003 Tesla Founded AV Development Timeline The possibility of developing an autonomous vehicle has been explored for many years. Since 1939, projects have been building momentum towards today's intensive activity.#10FUTURE AGENDA CC THE WAY FORWARD#11FUTURE AGENDA Realistic Expectations After a reset in 2019, more realistic ambitions for autonomy are providing greater focus for OEMs and big tech as well as guiding investor expectations on timelines and impact.#12FUTURE AGENDA ? CERTAINTIES AND UNCERTAINTIES CC#13FUTURE AGENDA 1 AVs will Initially be Expensive: With all the up-front investment as well as the additional technology that will be embedded within the vehicles and the wider intelligent infrastructure, the price of AVs will be significantly higher than today's cars and trucks. Over time, costs will reduce but there will continue to be a premium. Fleet operations will thus dominate the early years as the economics rely on Return on Investment. 2 High Utilisation is Critical: For the target cost-per-mile to be viable, AV fleet business models assume high daily use of vehicles - potentially up to 24/7. Each AV will drive between 100,000 and 300,000km a year and so will more follow a consumer product lifecycle than a traditional long-term transportation model. Updates and upgrades will be frequent. 3 China and the US in the Front Seat: Given the size of the domestic market, technology development already underway, the level of investment underway, government support and proactive regulation, alongside the US, China and Chinese companies will also play a major role in the field. In the US the regulatory environment enables private funding to drive early deployment. A China discussion highlighted that the central government had given Shanghai alone $50bn to invest to be a world leader EV and AV. 4 Monitoring is Assumed: While highly automated and able to eventually operate autonomously, all AVS will be monitored by both people and machines. Human supervision, either in the vehicle or remotely, will be required by regulators and expected by users in the early years and, over time, as trust builds some of this will be undertaken by machines. 5 Autonomous Vehicles will Look Different: Although much of the testing is taking place with adapted conventional cars and trucks, when they are deployed at scale by fleets AVS will be distinctive. Autonomous trucks will eventually be cab-less while autonomous cars will be designed for multiple person shared occupancy. Prototypes such as Volvo Truck's Vera and Cruise's Origin are good examples. For privately-owned passenger cars, coming in significant volumes after 2030, interiors are also likely to evolve substantially. What We Know While there are multiple debates, we see five main issues on which many agree. These are close to 'certainties' upon which assumptions and scenarios can be based.#14FUTURE AGENDA FUTURE AGENDA Open Foresight AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES THE EMERGING LANDSCAPE An Initial Perspective 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 67 7. 8. 9. Where will be the key hot-spots for AV development and deployment? Which sociopolitical forces may accelerate the adoption of full Level 4/5 automation? Where is advanced regulation most likely to act as a catalyst for AV deployment? What level of safety (crashes) is acceptable for the full launch of AV in the next decade? Will AV increase or decrease total traffic flow and congestion? Will automated mobility services replace, reduce or extend the reach of public transport? Of all the technologies in the mix, which ones are in greatest need of further development before the benefits of AV can be realised? What are the distinct benefits from AV that are not already coming from current and future-connected ADAS? How important will international standards and commonly shared technologies be for AV adoption - or will it be more regional? 10. Which will be the pivotal organisations, cities and governments that control adoption rates? 11. Who will lead on integrating all the varied systems needed to enable AV to operate? 12. Who will customers trust more to deliver a safe, reliable and comfortable AV experience? Initial Questions An initial perspective mapped the autonomous vehicle landscape and identified twelve key questions to explore via the research project.#15FUTURE AGENDA FUTURE AGENDA Open Foresight THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES An Interim Report based on Multiple Expert Discussions 1. 2. 3. 4. 3456 5. 6. 7. 78 8. 9. What lessons can be learned from other sectors - for example, mobile and healthcare? How much will AVs be tied to EVs, and therefore intertwined with charging infrastructure roll-out etc.? Will air-taxis have impact beyond a few niche locations? How will drones used for parcel delivery integrate with drones for other purposes? How will planning evolve to become a public/private partnership? Will private companies contribute to the cost of the infrastructure, and will public sector agencies allow for this? Will the growth of AVS mean more open/liveable/walkable urban public spaces? How will cities adapt today's public transport systems in an era in which automated MaaS overlaps their mission? How will designers overcome resistance to sharing rides with strangers? 10. For what types of routes and freight will Level 4 truck automation happen first? 11. How will supply chain approaches be transformed by Level 4 truck automation? 12. What effect will growth in AV urban/suburban parcel/grocery/food delivery have on other road users? Further Exploration In the interim report we identified an additional 12 questions from the first tranche of workshops that we then sought to addresses in the second half of the project.#16FUTURE AGENDA CC RESEARCH INSIGHTS#17FUTURE AGENDA Data Sharing Automated Freight Regulation and liability FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES First and Last Mile More Congestion Rethinking Planning Six Macro Themes From the discussions, a number of key issues were prioritised, debated and explored in depth Within these, there are six pivotal high-level macro drivers of change are focus of greatest debate.#18FUTURE AGENDA Cyber Security Remote Support Systems Improved Safety Common Standards Controlled Environments Data Sharing Truck Platoons Automated Freight Urban Delivery Regulation and liability FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES First and Last Mile Drones for Goods Air Taxis Environmental and Social Impact More Congestion Less Parking Rethinking Planning Public Transport Systems Robo-Taxi Fleets Resistance to Sharing Priority Areas for Focus Underlying and connected to these six, there are another additional fourteen priority topics of focus. Together these 20 areas can all be considered pivotal for the future of AVs.#19FUTURE AGENDA CC Systemic Considerations#20FUTURE AGENDA Regulation and Liability The regions that gain most will be those where regulation acts as a catalyst for AV deployment. Successfully addressing reporting requirements and liability will be critical for adoption.#21FUTURE AGENDA Common Standards International standards and commonly shared technologies may be essential for driving global rather than regional AV adoption. Without them, a more fragmented approach will be taken.#22FUTURE AGENDA Improved Safety Reducing accidents and road deaths is the political priority behind support for AV. While many benefits can be gained from ADAS, the promise of further major safety improvements is pivotal.#23FUTURE AGENDA A Environmental and Social Impact Ensuring that autonomous vehicles are cleaner than alternative options may be a pre-requisite in many regions, while the benefit of AVs for wider society is a crucial issue for public endorsement.#24FUTURE AGENDA cc 140 D More Congestion Decreasing congestion on the roads is a core ambition for AV advocates, but many recognise that, with mixed fleets operating for several years, we may initially see an increase in urban traffic.#25FUTURE AGENDA XAPELA AL TABERNA Orange APELA Less Parking Effective deployment of AVS could mean not only fewer vehicles on the streets, but also that parking spaces are removed enabling narrower roadways and more pedestrian space.#26FUTURE AGENDA Rethinking Planning Poor coordination between transit systems, urban planning and solutions may delay AV benefits. For full impact it will be necessary to take a more flexible approach to planning.#27FUTURE AGENDA CC Moving People#28FUTURE AGENDA STIN LET'S FULLY WELCOME REFUGEES AGENT BERTOCCHI FAMOUS HANG BACON SALAM Federation Square 3518 PT ONE You're in the (FREE TRAM ZONE> SEALIFE NEX ANZ 350 Public Transport Systems Autonomous buses, shuttles and new mobility solutions to fill transport gaps are introduced. Security, flexibility, reach, interconnectivity and funding are the primary issues for many cities.#29FUTURE AGENDA Marina Bay Sands Hotel Safdie Architects 207m FLUX FLUX CC Resistance to Sharing Public support for ridesharing will require a re-evaluation of vehicle design for small groups. Concerns about privacy and safety mean strangers may be unwilling to travel together.#30FUTURE AGENDA W WAYMO TCP 381524 Robo-Taxi Fleets Robo-taxis are the way forward for passenger transport in suburbs and cities. As part of 'Mobility as a Service' robo-taxis change travel patterns, car ownership, and have to integrate with public transport.#31FUTURE AGENDA First and Last Mile Improving the inefficient first and last mile has health, energy and efficiency benefits. In urban environments, scooters, bikes and small autonomous robots all have a role to play.#32FUTURE AGENDA Air Taxis Several major cities will support the introduction of air-taxis - initially to allow the elite to bypass increasing congestion on the streets, but later for wider citizen use.#33FUTURE AGENDA CC 138 734 0226 716 312 Goods Transport#34FUTURE AGENDA 11 Drones for Goods Investment in timely drone delivery services accelerates deployment in multiple locations. Concerns about safety and collisions are overcome with automated UAV air traffic control.#35FUTURE AGENDA Urban Delivery Small, slow-moving, autonomous robots offer attractive ROI and act as an accelerator of deployment. They enable safe, clean, convenient and low-cost delivery and help to raise public confidence in AV.#36FUTURE AGENDA Ibn Taps Shiny Pape Automated Freight Driverless expressway trucks will transform long-haul journeys and the wider logistics sector. As safety goals are met and costs are reduced, regulatory support evolves with deployment.#37FUTURE AGENDA -- REAL IMPROVING SAFETY AND SAVING FUEL Po Truck Platoons As the first level of deployed automation, truck platoons help build wider momentum while delivering tangible improvements in efficiency, cost of transportation, energy use and safety.#38FUTURE AGENDA Controlled Environments Automation within controlled environments continues to expand steadily. AVs within airports, port terminals and logistics facilities start to venture onto the open road.#39FUTURE AGENDA Data and Security#40FUTURE AGENDA 25.112 +O+ D C 15:524537.5 21.82 O+ Data Sharing Better, deeper and more secure, data sharing is pivotal to enabling the full AV ambition. Mobility brands agree protocols for V2X interaction and support the use of shared data sets.#41FUTURE AGENDA B 1 1 1 1 101 1 1010 11 AA I 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 A 1 1 E 1 1 10 10 10 11 01 a 10 10 日 1 1 1 1 0 1 10 0 0 D 0 0 001 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 00 01 01 1 日 D 1 B 1 1 10 10 10 1 1 1 0 1 101 11 A 10 10 ! A1 01 ☑ 0 1 1 1 1 0 101 10 1010 Cyber Security With a rising threat of hacks, denial of service, vandalism and theft of data, organisations seek to protect AV through building common approaches for broader, closed but collaborative systems.#42FUTURE AGENDA Remote Support Centres Manned support centres initially provide oversight, support and emergency response for all AVS. In the absence of drivers, public transport vehicles require clear remote human supervision.#43FUTURE AGENDA CC CONCLUSIONS#44FUTURE AGENDA 1. Fleets are now driving progress: In terms of the dominant business models, momentum is clearly behind both robo-taxis and truck fleets. 2. Automated trucks are coming: Freight has much to gain in terms of efficiency; this has regulatory momentum and wide industry support. 3. Safety is a pre-requisite: Expectations are high, but as many advances are already in process, improvements look likely. 4. Congestion is a conundrum: While the aim is for less congestion and the role of connectivity is pivotal, user behaviour and Transportation Network Company (TNC) strategies could initially mean more congestion. 5. Multiple options for the last mile: There are many alternatives in the mix, all bridging different needs and location gaps. 6. First vs widespread deployment: Where and why we see initial AV services may not necessarily align with where mass impact will occur. 7. Deeper collaboration will be needed: Moving from partnerships to long-term multi-party collaboration is seen as a critical enabler. 8. Technical standards may not be pivotal: Although comprehensive technical standards are advocated, they are not essential for AV; in some regions, safety standards will support regulation. 9. Regulators are influencing deployment: Proactive regulation is attracting companies, but the balance of light vs. heavy regulatory approaches may impact this. Nine Thoughts We can see nine core issues as significant for the next decade. All are intricately inter-connected but collectively define the highly 'wicked' problem to address.#45FUTURE AGENDA @ MORE INFORMATION CC#46FUTURE AGENDA Dr. Tim Jones Tim is a recognised expert in innovation, growth and futures. A leader in collaborative programs, for over 20 years he has helped leading organizations explore new fields and identify new areas for potential growth. https://uk.linkedin.com/in/innovationstrategy [email protected] +44 7801 755 054 Richard Bishop With over 25 years in this domain, Richard brings a unique perspective to the automated vehicles arena worldwide focusing on partnership development, applications, industry analysis and business strategy. https://www.linkedin.com/in/richardbishopconsulting/ [email protected] +1 443 695 3717 Project Website: www.futureautonomous.org More Information If you would like additional details on this project, how it was undertaken or any of the insights shared in this report, please contact either of the authors.#47FUTURE AGENDA Open Foresight Future Agenda, 84 Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | @futureagenda