#1Lessons Learned and Impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident The 60th Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, Istanbul, Turkey, November 1-5, 2013 Tatsujiro Suzuki Vice Chairman, Japan Atomic Energy Commission [email protected] Note: The views expressed here are of my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the JAEC nor the government. 1#2Lessons Learned from Fukushima accient "Preventable", "Think Unthinkable" 2#3Five Major Lessons from Gov't Committee* and the Diet Commission** on the Accident • Man-made Disaster: "It was preventable" • Emergency Response: "Unprepared" Protecting Public Health: "Communication Failure" Regulatory Framework: "Captured by the Utility Industry" • International dimension: Importance of information disclosure and sharing * Investigation Committee on the Accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations, Final Report Recommendations, July 2012. http://icanps.go.jp/eng/Saishyu Recommendation.pdf ** The National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAIIC), Final Report, July 2012. http://naiic.go.jp/en/ 3#4Nuclear Emergency: Institutional Arrangement under the Law* JAEC PM Office NG Nuclear Emergency HQ NSC NISA TEPCO HQ +PM office enter moved to Fukushima NISA+TEPCO Local Gov't Fukushima Daiichi *Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness (ASMCNE) 4#5"Man-made Disaster" - It was preventable The accident was preventable if the operators and regulators acted properly based on the information available to them (by the Diet. Commission) • The scale of tsunami was "beyond. imagination" of TEPCO and regulators, but that their preventive measures were insufficient against tsunami and severe accident. (by the Gov't committee) 5#6TEPCO Has Evaluated High-Tsunami : Tsunami Study has been reported Tsunami Height Analysis (2010) to NISA 10 0 10-1 10-2 نا 10 10° 10-5 10 10 10 20 津波高さ m 平均 0.95フラタタイル 0.84プラクタイル 0.50プラタタイル 0.15フラウタイル 0.05フラタタイル 30 IL 40 • 2008: TEPCO studied Jogan- Tsunami June, 2009: TEPCO asked civil engineering society to evaluate their analysis June 2009:TEPCO reported to NISA on preliminary results • March 7, 2011: NISA was briefed on "possible 10m height tsunami at Fukushima." http://www.meti.go.jp/earthquake/nuclear/backdrop/20110911.html 6#7Most Important Lessons Learned from Fukushima: "Thinking Unthinkable" and "Resilience" "The Investigation Committee is convinced of the need of a paradigm shift in the basic principles of disaster prevention programs for such a huge system, whose failure may cause enormous damage."- from the Interim Report by the Gov't investigation committee (Dec. 2011) "Thinking unthinkable" is essential in preparing for the emergency and for energy security. "Resilience" beyond "defense in depth" is needed for preparing "unexpected crisis". - - Resilience means a capability to respond to "unexpected crisis" as well as to restore safe and secure status of the social system. 7#8Impact on Global Nuclear Energy Development 8#9From "Nuclear Renaissance" to "Failed Dream"? by "The Economist" INSIDE THIS WEEK: TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY The Economist SEPTEMBER 4TH 2007 www.xomowist.com Waiting for Petraeus The credit crisis, continued In search of the good company India's airline magnate Time to abolish Belgium The Economist The end of cheap China A shock at the polls for the Gandhis Goodbye Super Tuesday At last, progress on prostate cancer The broken-windows man HARD 10TH-16 2012 Economist.com Nuclear power's new age Nuclear energy The dream that failed A 14-PAGE SPECIAL REPORT "A nuclear revival is welcome so long as the industry does not repeat its old mistakes" --The Economist, September 8, 2007 "For nuclear to play a greater role, either it must get cheaper or other ways of generating electricity must get more expensive."- The Economist, March 10, 2012 9#10IAEA Global Nuclear Power Development Current Status (IAEA) Nuclear power today On 21 November 2011, 443 nuclear power plants (NPPs) operated in 30 countries worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 366.6 GWe. GWe 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Total Number of Reactors Africa America-Latin America - Northern "Where does nuclear Asia - Far East power go from here?" Asia - Middle East and South Europe Central and Eastern 65 NPPs under construction Europe-Western 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Operational Long-Term Shutdown Under Construction Source: H-Holger Rogner, Head, Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)Department of Nuclear Energy, International Atomic Energy Agency, "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030," November 2011. As of July 31, 2013, 434 nuclear power plants (370.5 GWe) are operating and 69 units. are under construction, one unit in long term shutdown. http://www.iaea.org/pris/ 10#11no. of construction starts 20 20 10 0 IAEA 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 Source: H-Holger Rogner, Head, Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)Department of Nuclear Energy, International Atomic Energy Agency, "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030," November 2011. 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 50 40 30 30 40 year life time TMI accident Chernobyl accident Fukushima accident Global Nuclear Power Plant Construction (IAEA) : Replacement of old reactors are coming.... Construction starts 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 11#12Global Nuclear power production is in decline Figure 1: Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World % Nuclear Electricity Production in the World 1990-2012 (in TWh and share of electricity production) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 066 MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING 1995 195 max. 17% 2000 TWh 4000 3500 max 2,660 TWh 2,346 TWh 3000 2005 2500 2000 10% 1500 N Source : IAEA-PRIS, BP, MSC, 2013 http://www.world nuclearreport.org/ 1000 500 12 12#13Asia: No major policy changes, still committed to nuclear power Bangladesh: There is no change in plans to promote nuclear policy. Bangladesh signs with agreement between Russia about the construction of Rooppur NPP in November 2011. China: Important role of nuclear power in China is not changed. China has temporarily stopped the authorization of new projects after the accident, but the construction of NPP has restarted now. India: Domestic energy demand is increasing, and nuclear power is considered to be an important option as a clean energy source (no change). Construction of new NPPs are progressing according to the existing plan. Indonesia: 49.5% of the population is in favor (35.5% opposition) for against nation's nuclear policy. Nuclear power is considered as one of the main power source to support energy security. Kazakhstan: There is no change in plans to promote nuclear power. many people are aware that there is no other option to incorporate nuclear power for the realization of nation's policy. South Korea: There is no change in nuclear policy. Based on the "4th Comprehensive Nuclear Energy Promotion Plan", South Korea continues to build NPPs in six locations from 2012 to 2017. Malaysia: There is no change in plans to begin the operation of Malaysia's first nuclear reactor in 2021. Vietnam: There is no change in plans to promote nuclear power. Vietnam plans to build high safety NPPs learned from Fukushima accident with Japan and Russia in cooperation. Taiwan: Announced an energy policy to reduce the dependence on nuclear power. Thailand; Decided the postponement of the plan to build five NPPs for 3 years. 13#14Estimates of Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity: Comparison of estimates in 2013 and 2011 Estimates for 2030 Estimates for 2050 Estimated Actual in 2011 Estimated in 2011 in 2013 in 2011 in 2013 World Total -13% -21% Nucl. Capacity (GWe) Low Estimate 501 435 560 440 368.8 High Estimate 746 722 1228 1113 -3% -9% Share (%) Low Estimate 5.2 4.5 2.7 2.2 7.1 High Estimate 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.6 Far East -18% -14% Nucl. Capacity (GWe) Low Estimate High Estimate 180 147 220 189 79.8 255 268 450 412 +5% -8% Share (%) Low Estimate High Estimate 6.4 5.3 4.2 3.7 5.0 7.5 8.1 8.6 8.0 Source: International Atomic Energy Agency, "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050," 2011 Edition http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS1 31.pdf 2013 Edition http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/RDS-1-33 web.pdf 14#15Gt CO2 A portfolio of technologies is needed Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS vs 4DS 40 30 20 60 50 62 10 0 2009 2020 2030 End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 31% End-use fuel switching 9% 2040 2050 CCS 20% Renewables 29% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% Nuclear 8% Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change. http://www.iea.org/etp/etp2012/presentations/ 15#16• Issues and Challenges for Japan Fukushima Daiichi Decommissioning and Restoring life in Fukushima area Restoring Public Trust in Nuclear Safety and Energy Policy • Major Issues remain to be solved regardless of future of nuclear energy (with emphasis on nuclear safety and security) - Spent fuel management - Plutonium stockpile management 16