#1Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990-2030 Nevada Division of Environmental Protection 2016 Report NDEP#2This page left intentionally blank#3Table of Contents Disclaimer... List of Tables Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 List of Figures. Acronyms and Abbreviations Executive Summary... 1. Introduction Overview Approach, Datasets, and General Methodology... 1.1 1.2 2. State of Nevada Greenhouse Gas Emissions.. 2.1 Historical Emissions (1990 to 2013). 2.2 Projected Emissions (2014 to 2030). 2.3 Nevada and the United States 3. Electricity Generation 3.1 Overview 3.2 Historical Emissions......... 3.3 Projected Emissions 4. Transportation 4.1 Overview 4.3 5. 5.1 4.2 Historical Emissions. Projected Emissions Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Overview 5.2 Historical Emissions 5.3 Projected Emissions 6. Industrial Process. 6.1 Overview 6.2 Historical Emissions........ 6.3 Projected Emissions 7. Waste Management.. 7.1 Overview 7.2 Solid Waste...... 7.2.1 Historical Emissions....... 7.2.2 Projected Emissions i iii iv iv vi vii 1 1 3 5 5 8 9 11 11 12 14 16 16 16 19 20 20 21 23 25 25 .25 .27 29 29 30 30 31#47.3 Wastewater. 7.3.1 Historical Emissions...... Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 8.3 9. 8. 8.1 7.3.2 Projected Emissions Agricultural Sector Emissions. Overview 8.2 Historical Emissions........ Projected Emissions Fossil Fuel Industry Sector Emissions. 9.1 Overview 9.2 Historical Emissions...... 9.3 Projected Emissions 10. 10.1 Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry. Overview 10.2 Historical Emissions......... 10.3 Projected Emissions ii 32 32 33 34 34 34 36 38 38 38 41 43 43 43 46#5Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Disclaimer The information contained in the Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Projections, 1990- 2030 report is for public use; every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. The information presented is as timely and accurate as practicable; no expressed or implied guarantees are made. Information contained herein may be freely distributed and used for noncommercial, scientific, and educational purposes. Inquiries made in reference to this report should be directed to: Nevada Bureau of Air Quality Planning 901 South Stewart Street, Suite 4001 Carson City, Nevada 89701-5249 Or you can call us: (775) 687-9349 iii#6Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 List of Tables Table ES-1: Nevada Historical Emissions by Sector, MMTCO2eq. Table 1-1: The 100 Year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for Selected GHGs' Table 1-2: The GHGs Considered in the Various Sections of the Report.. Table 1-3: Key GHG Inventory Data Sources.. Table 2-1: Nevada Historical Emissions by Sector, MMTCO₂eq.. Table 3-1: Electricity Generation Sector Historical Emissions, MMTCO₂eq Table 4-1: Transportation Sector Historical Emissions, MMTCO2eq Table 5-1: Fuel Types Consumed by Sub-Sector Table 5-2: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sector Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) Table 6-1: Reported Industrial Processes in Nevada Table 6-2: Industrial Process Emissions (MMTCO2eq). Table 7-1: Sources Used to Estimate Waste Management Sector GHG Emissions Table 7-2: Nevada Solid Waste Emissions (MMTCO2eq). Table 7-3: Nevada Wastewater Emissions (MMTCO2eq).. Table 8-1: Sources Used to Estimate Agricultural Sector GHG Emissions Table 8-2: Nevada Agricultural Sector Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Table 9-1: Sources Used to Estimate Fossil Fuel Industry GHG Emissions Table 9-2: Nevada Fossil Fuel Industry Emissions (MMTCO2eq). viii 1 2 4 6 12 18 20 21 25 26 29 31 32 34 35 38 39 45 Table 10-1: Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry Sector Emissions (MMTCO2eq)... List of Figures vii Figure ES-1: 2013 Nevada Gross GHG Emissions by Sector and Relative Contributions of GHGs. Figure ES-2: Nevada Historical and Projected Gross Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO2eq)............ ix Figure 2-1: Nevada Gross Historical Emissions by Sector and Net Historical Emissions, 1990-2013......... 5 Figure 2-2: Relative Contributions of Gross Emissions by Sector, Select Years. 7 Figure 2-3: Relative Contributions of Individual GHGs, 1990 - 2013 8 Figure 2-4: Nevada Historical and Projected Gross Sector Emissions, 1990 – 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) Figure 2-5: Relative Contributions of Gross Emissions for Nevada and the US, 2013 Figure 3-1: Electricity Generation Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq) - 9 10 13 Figure 3-2: Electricity Generation Sector Generation by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2015 (MWh). Figure 3-3: Historical and Projected Electricity Generation Sector Emissions,........ 14 15 Figure 4-1: Total Historical Transportation Sector Emissions Compared Against VMT and Nevada State Population, 1990 to 2013... 17 Figure 4-2: Fuel Type CO2 Emissions Compared to VMT in Nevada, 1990 - 2013 18 Figure 4-3: Historical and Projected Transportation Sector Emissions, 1990 – 2030 (MMTCO2eq) Figure 5-1: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq)........ 19 22 iv#7Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 5-2: Relative Contributions of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sub-Sector Emissions, 1990-2013 22 Figure 5-3: Historical and Projected Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sector Emissions, 1990. 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) Figure 6-1: Industrial Process Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq). 24 27 Figure 6-2: Relative Contributions of Industrial Process Related GHGs, 1990 - 2013 Figure 6-3: Historical and Projected Industrial Process Emissions, 1990 – 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) Figure 7-1: Solid Waste Emissions, 1990 – 2013 (MMTCO2eq) 27 - 28 31 Figure 7-2: Historical and Projected Solid Waste Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq). Figure 7-3: Wastewater Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq)..... 32 33 Figure 7-4: Historical and Projected Wastewater Treatment Emissions, 1990 – 2030 (MMTCO2eq). Figure 8-1: Agricultural Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO₂eq). 33 35 Figure 8-2: Relative Contributions of CH 4 and N2O of Agricultural Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 Figure 8-3: Historical and Projected Emissions for the Agricultural Sector, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO2eq).... 37 Figure 9-1: EIA Historical Energy Production Estimates for Nevada, 1960 - 2015 Figure 9-2: Nevada Fossil Fuel Industry Emissions, 1990 - 2015 (MMTCO2eq) Figure 9-3: Relative Contributions of Fossil Fuel Industry Emissions, 1990 - 2015. 36 39 40 41 Figure 9-4: Historical and Projected Emissions for the Fossil Fuel Industry, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq)... 42 Figure 10-1: Land Cover in Nevada......... 44 Figure 10-2: Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry Sector Emissions Sources and Emissions Sinks, 1990 2013 (MMTCO2eq). 45 V#8Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Acronyms and Abbreviations AAPFCO AVMT BOD BTU CH4 CO2 CO₂eq eGRID ΕΙΑ EIA-SEDS EPA FIA GDP GHG GHGRP GWP HFC IPAA IPCC LFGTE LMOP LPG MMTCO₂eq MW MSW N₂O NASS NDEP NGCC NIFC NPC NRS ODS PFC PHMSA PUCN SF6 SIT SIT 2016 SPPC EPA VMT WIP Association of American Plant Food Control Offices Annual Vehicle Miles Travelled Biochemical Oxygen Demand British Thermal Unit Methane Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide equivalent Emission & Generation Resource Integrated Database US Energy Information Administration Energy Information Administration State Energy Data System US Environmental Protection Agency USDA-Forest Inventory and Analysis Program Gross Domestic Product Greenhouse Gas Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program Global Warming Potential Hydrofluorocarbon Independent Petroleum Association of America Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Landfill-Gas-to-Energy Landfill Methane Outreach Program Liquefied Petroleum Gas Million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent Megawatt Municipal Solid Waste Nitrous Oxide National Agricultural Statistics Service Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Natural Gas Combined Cycle National Interagency Fire Center Nevada Power Company Nevada Revised Statutes Ozone Depleting Substance Perfluorocarbon US Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration Public Utilities Commission of Nevada Sulfur hexafluoride State Inventory Tool The 2016 version of EPA's State Inventory Tool Sierra Pacific Power Corporation United States Environmental Protection Agency Vehicle Miles Travelled Waste in Place vi#9Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Executive Summary The Nevada Revised Statutes (NRS) require that a statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory be prepared and issued at least every 4 years. It further stipulates that the report must include the origin, types, and amounts of GHGs emitted throughout the state, and all supporting analyses and documentation. This report represents a comprehensive inventory of anthropogenic GHG emissions in Nevada that specifically considers the 6 GHGs listed in NRS 445B.137: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N₂O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). This report was developed using the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) State Inventory Tool (SIT). The SIT is a series of emissions calculators broken up by sectors designed to help states develop GHG inventories. This report utilizes the SIT to estimate historical emissions from 1990 to 2013 and project future emissions to 2030 for eight different sectors in Nevada.¹ 2 The inventory of Nevada's GHG emissions estimates 2013 gross GHG emissions totaled 44.039 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2eq) and net GHG emissions totaled 39.251 MMTCO2eq. These emissions estimates are far less than the state's peak in 2005 when there were an estimated 60.362 MMTCO2eq of gross and net GHGs emitted.³ The state's two largest sectors in terms of GHG emissions are electricity generation and transportation. Combined, the combustion of fossil fuels for the generation of electricity and transportation related purposes accounted for 67 percent of the state's total 2013 emissions. Figure ES-1 illustrates the relative gross GHG contributions of the various sectors considered in this report and also the relative contribution of the GHGs themselves to total Nevada emissions in 2013. Note that the land use, land use change, and forestry (forestry) sector is absent from Figure ES-1 as it acted as an emissions sink in 2013. Figure ES-1: 2013 Nevada Gross GHG Emissions by Sector and Relative Contributions of Waste Management 4% Agriculture 3% Fossil Fuel Industry 2% Industrial Processes 8% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 16% Transportation 33% Electricity Generation 34% GHGs N₂O 2% HFC, PFC, and SF6 3% CH4 12% CO₂ 83% 1 2013 is the most recent year with datasets available for all of the GHG sources considered. 2 Net GHG emissions are calculated as total gross emissions minus the net amount of CO2 sequestered by natural ecosystems (e.g. forestry sector). 3 That gross and net emissions were the same implies that the forestry sector was a source and not a sink for emissions in that particular year. vii#10Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Total Nevada emissions have increased 25 percent since 1990 but have decreased 27 percent from the 2005 peak. In general, a correlation exists between population growth and GHG emissions. For example, the increase in GHG emissions from 1990 to 2005 closely follows the Nevada's population growth during the same period. However, disregarding changes in population, large changes in GHG emissions can also occur as a result of changes in production technologies or methodologies that release GHGs. For example, the large decline in GHG emissions after 2005 resulted from the retirement of Mohave Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant. A similar situation, though with far less impact, occurred more recently in the waste management sector. With the installation of landfill-gas-to-energy technology (a process which converts CH 4 biogas into electricity) at Nevada's largest landfill, emissions in the sector were reduced by more than 500,000 MTCO2eq (a nearly 22 percent decrease in emissions). Table ES-1 provides a sector-by-sector summary of GHG emissions in Nevada for select years from 1990 to 2013. Table ES-1: Nevada Historical Emissions by Sector, MMTCO2eq Sector Electricity Generation Transportation 1990 1995 2000 16.855 18.267 24.771 9.807 11.967 15.091 2005 26.213 17.226 2010 2011 16.858 14.190 14.665 15.144 14.112 13.502 14.057 14.492 2012 2013 Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Industrial Processes 4.441 5.848 5.987 6.819 6.880 6.037 6.025 6.807 1.214 1.556 2.298 2.573 3.230 3.403 0.749 1.003 1.384 1.808 2.144 2.209 1.484 1.550 1.642 1.636 1.558 0.412 0.493 0.593 0.739 0.785 -5.851 -8.073 -0.635 3.349 -6.121 34.962 40.684 51.765 60.362 45.567 3.425 3.550 2.136 1.751 1.570 1.563 1.436 0.855 0.860 Waste Management Agriculture Fossil Fuel Industry Forestry Total Gross Emissions* Total Net Emissions * 0.849 -2.183 -0.329 -4.788 41.759 42.726 44.039 29.110 32.612 51.130 60.362 39.446 39.575 42.397 39.251 Gross emissions only account for the forestry sector on years when it is a source of GHG emissions Emissions were projected to the year 2030. These emissions projections consider estimates of future emissions as well as known changes to a sector. Figure ES-2 shows Nevada's GHG emissions from 1990 to 2030 with a dashed vertical line separating where the historical period ends and the projections begin. Between 2014 and 2030 the transportation sector is expected to become the largest source of GHG emissions in the state. Total emissions statewide will remain relatively flat between 2013 and 2030 where emissions are projected to increase by less than 1 MMTCO2eq. This is due, in part, because as Nevada continues to move away from coal-fired electricity generation, emissions in the electricity generation sector will continue to decline. viii#1160 60 Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 20 20 30 40 50 50 10 10 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure ES-2: Nevada Historical and Projected Gross Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) 11 I 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electricity Generation Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Waste Management Fossil Fuel Industry Transportation ■Industrial Processes Agriculture ■Forestry ix#12Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 1. Introduction 1.1 Overview During the 2007 Nevada Legislative Session, the legislature passed Senate Bill 422, which is now codified in the Nevada Revised Statutes (NRS) Chapter 445B.137 and 445B.380. NRS 445B.137 defines the gases that are collectively referred to as greenhouse gases (GHG) and NRS 445B.380 requires that a statewide GHG inventory be prepared and issued at least every 4 years beginning in 2008. It further stipulates that the report must include the origin, types, and amounts of GHGs emitted throughout the state, and all supporting analyses and documentation. This report represents a comprehensive inventory of all anthropogenic GHG emissions in Nevada as it considers all 6 GHGs listed in NRS 445B.137: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). This report was developed using the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) State Inventory Tool (SIT).¹ 1, 2 The SIT is a series of emissions calculators broken up by sectors designed to help states develop GHG inventories (the SIT is discussed in more detail in 1.2). The GHGs considered in this report each have characteristic global warming potentials (GWPs) and therefore contribute to the overall atmospheric greenhouse effect differently. The GWP is used to derive a common metric, known as the CO2 equivalent (CO2eq), which uses the GWP of CO2 as a reference unit. The biggest difference in values between this report and the 2012 version is that the 2012 report used GWPs from the International Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) third assessment and this report utilizes the GWPs from the IPCC's fourth assessment. Table 1-1 lists the GWPS on a 100 year horizon for the gases considered in this report. The use of CO2eq allows estimating and comparing total GHG emissions from sources emitting different GHGs. 3,4 Table 1-1: The 100 Year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for Selected GHGs Gas GWP CO₂ 1 CH4 25 N₂O 298 HFC-23 14,800 HFC-32 HFC-125 675 3,500 1 The six GHG gases listed in NRS 445B.137 are similarly included in the definitions of a GHG by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2 3 https://www.epa.gov/statelocalclimate/state-inventory-and-projection-tool (accessed October 2016). IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom 996 pp. 4 While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since updated the GWPS for the GHGs listed in Table 1-1, the modeling software provided by the EPA that is used in this report has not been updated to reflect those changes. The IPCC's most recent GWP's are published in their fifth assessment: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ (accessed October 2016). 1#13Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Gas HFC-134a HFC-143a HFC-152a GWP 1,430 4,470 124 HFC-227ea HFC-236fa HFC-4310mee 3,220 9,810 1,640 PFC-14 (CF4) 7,390 PFC-116 (C2F6) 12,200 PFC-3-1-10 (C4F10) 8,860 PFC-5-1-14 (C6F14) 9,300 SF6 22,800 This 2016 report covers the period from 1990 to 2030, covering historical and current emissions inventories from 1990 to 2013 and future emissions projected to 2030. The report is organized into sections covering each of the following sectors that produce GHGs: • Electricity Generation; • Transportation; • Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (stationary emissions from fossil-fuel burning only); • Industrial Processes (i.e., all non-energy related activities); • Waste Management; • • Agriculture (all non-energy related activities); Fossil-Fuel Industry (e.g., coal and natural gas production and distribution); and • Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (Forestry). The presence (or absence) of specific activities in a sector largely determines the type of GHGs emitted. Table 1-2 summarizes the types of GHG emissions that each sector is expected to release in Nevada; a filled box in the table indicates that the specific GHG is emitted in that sector. Table 1-2: The GHGs Considered in the Various Sections of the Report Sector CO₂ CH4 N₂O HFCs PFCs SF6 Electricity Generation Transportation Residential, Commercial, Industrial (fossil fuel burning for energy-related activities) Industrial Processes* (non-energy related activities) Waste Management Agriculture Fossil Fuel Industry Forestry** *HFCS, PFCs, and SF6 are calculated together in this sector **CO2 can be emitted into the atmosphere and sequestered from the atmosphere in this sector 2#14Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 1.2 Approach, Datasets, and General Methodology The principal goal of this report is to provide a general understanding of Nevada's historical, current, and future GHG emissions. In most cases, the approach followed was the one used by the EPA in its national GHG emission inventory, the EPA's SIT, and those methods suggested in its guidelines for states. National inventory guidelines are based on the recommendations developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6, an international organization responsible for, among other tasks, coordinating methods for national GHG inventories. The EPA's SIT was used as a starting point for all inventories and projections; initial estimates were revised when more accurate state and local datasets became available. The key sources for the data used in this report are listed in Table 1-3. In gathering the data, and in cases where data sources conflicted, priority was given to local and state data and analyses, followed by regional and national data. In the absence of available data, the most appropriate statistical methodology was used to either interpolate or extrapolate the missing data points. In spite of any possible instance of under/overestimates in emissions estimates related to using particular datasets, the methods used in this report are considered by NDEP to be the most reliable available methods at the time this report was produced. The data and methodologies used in this report are specifically designed to compile a GHG emission inventory at the state level on an annual time scale; for this reason, the scale of this emission inventory is too coarse to effectively measure and evaluate the results of most individual GHG reduction programs or statute changes. For the purpose of this inventory, emissions that were caused by activities that occurred within the geographical boundaries of the State of Nevada were reported. However, it is important to recognize that GHG emissions are not always spatially associated with the related activities. For instance, production (the source of emissions) and consumption of electrical power (the related activity) can take place at very different locations, sometimes in different states. This distinction is particularly critical in evaluating the impact of potential demand mitigation strategies. For example, reuse, recycling, and source reduction can lead to emission reduction from lower energy requirements in material production (e.g., paper, cardboard, and aluminum) even though the emissions associated with material production may not occur within that particular state. 5 https://www.epa.gov/statelocalclimate/developing-state-greenhouse-gas-inventory (accessed October 2016). 6 https://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm (accessed October 2016). 7 In instances when regional and/or national data are used, the disaggregations can result in under/overestimates of emissions versus the other states in the original "group". This is due to the methods of redistribution which are largely comparisons of populations and in some cases gross domestic products (GDPs). Instances where this uncertainty could lead to an appreciable change in estimated emissions are noted throughout the report. 3#15Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Sector All Sectors Electricity Generation Transportation Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Table 1-3: Key GHG Inventory Data Sources Source US EPA State GHG Inventory Tool, 2016 version (SIT 2016) Nevada State Demographer The United States Census Bureau US Energy Information Administration (EIA) EPA Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN) Energy Information Administration State Energy Data System (EIA-SEDS) Nevada Department of Transportation EIA-SEDS EIA-SEDS USGS Minerals Yearbook US Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program Industrial Processes ΕΙΑ Waste Management Agriculture Fossil Fuel Industry Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry US EPA Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP) NDEP Bureau of Waste Management USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) The Association of American Plant Food Control Officials (AAPFCO) Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) US EIA US Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) USDA-Forest Service Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Information Provided Emission factors and other sector specific data Nevada population data US population data Fossil-fuel consumption at state level Net generation of electricity GHG emissions at the plant level Power company regulatory filings Annual consumption of fossil-fuel for the electricity generation sector, disaggregated by type of fuel Total Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (AVMT) Annual consumption of fossil fuel for the transportation sector, disaggregated by type of fuel Fuel consumption Annual production and consumption, and projected consumption for different minerals Sector GHG emissions Emission factor and national SF6 consumption data for electric power transmission and distribution. Electricity sales at national and state level Waste in place (WIP) data Information on gas-recovery technologies (in- place and planned) Annual solid waste emplacement Livestock population and crop statistics for Nevada Fertilizer use data Oil and natural gas production Oil and natural gas production Natural gas transmission and distribution Forest productivity Acreage affected by fires 4#16Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 2. 2.1 State of Nevada Greenhouse Gas Emissions Historical Emissions (1990 to 2013) The analysis of Nevada's GHG emissions indicates that for 2013 (the most recent year with datasets available for all of the GHG sources considered) statewide gross GHG emissions were estimated to be 44.039 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2eq). Figure 2-1 shows Nevada's gross historical emissions from 1990 to 2013, where emissions are aggregated by sector and emissions for the forestry sector are only shown when they are positive.8 GHG emissions increased every year from 1990 to 2000 but emissions peaked in 2005 at 60.362 MMTCO2eq. With the retirement of the Mohave Generating Station that year, gross emissions decreased by more than 5 MMTCO2eq between 2005 and 2006. Further, the economic recession that occurred between 2007 and 2009 reduced emissions across nearly all sectors as Nevada's entire economy suffered from the recession's effects. Figure 2-1 also includes a black dashed line indicating the state's net GHG emissions. Net emissions are the difference between GHG emissions and sinks in a given year. Because forestry sector emissions largely act as a sink for GHG emissions (the forestry sector is the state's only true GHG sink), statewide net emissions are generally lower when this sector is considered as both a source and a sink. Figure 2-1: Nevada Gross Historical Emissions by Sector and Net Historical Emissions, 1990 - 2013 60 60 Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fossil Fuel Industry Waste Management Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Electricity Generation Forestry Agriculture Industrial Processes Transportation Net Emissions 8 Forestry sector emissions are largely dependent upon wildfires and prescribed fires (wildland fires) in the state. Typically the forestry sector acts as a sink for CO2 but when there are many acres burned by wildland fires in a single year then emissions can be positive. 5#17Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Historical emissions estimates from all sectors are presented in Table 2-1. The trends in Nevada's smaller sectors are more easily distinguished when presented this way. In 2013, two sectors contributed 67 percent of total gross emissions in the state (electricity generation and transportation). Forestry sector emissions are clearly the state's most volatile as uncontrolled wildfires are difficult to predict, control, and contain. Table 2-1 also highlights the impact of Nevada's increasing population on emissions across almost all sectors. That is, emissions from all sectors rose with similar increases in population until a meaningful change took place in that sector that reduced emissions (those changes are discussed in each sector's respective section). Table 2-1: Nevada Historical Emissions by Sector, MMTCO₂eq Sector Electricity Generation Transportation 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 16.855 18.267 24.771 26.213 16.858 14.190 14.665 15.144 9.807 11.967 15.091 17.226 14.112 13.502 14.057 14.492 Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 4.441 5.848 5.987 6.819 6.880 6.037 6.025 6.807 Industrial Processes 1.214 Waste Management 0.749 Agriculture 1.556 2.298 1.003 1.384 1.484 1.550 1.642 2.573 3.230 1.808 2.144 2.209 3.403 3.425 3.550 2.136 1.751 1.636 1.558 1.570 1.563 1.436 Fossil Fuel Industry Forestry 0.412 0.493 0.593 -5.851 -8.073 -0.635 0.739 0.785 0.849 0.855 0.860 3.349 -6.121 -2.183 -0.329 -4.788 Total Gross Emissions* 60.362 45.567 41.759 42.726 44.039 Total Net Emissions 34.962 40.684 51.765 29.110 32.612 51.130 60.362 39.446 39.575 42.397 39.251 * Gross emissions only account for the forestry sector on years when it is a source of GHG emissions The state's two dominant sectors for GHG emissions are electricity generation and transportation. In 2013, electricity generation was 34 percent of gross emissions and transportation was 33 percent of the state's gross emissions. The positions of these two sectors in terms of contributions to the state's total emissions have not changed since 1990 when they were 48 and 28 percent, respectively. Figure 2-2 illustrates the relative contributions of each of the sectors investigated in this report to Nevada's total GHG emissions for the year's 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2013. While minor changes to Nevada's minor GHG contributing sectors is more noticeable above in Table 2-1, putting all of the sectors into comparison to total emissions in Figure 2-2 puts into perspective the relative importance of each source that makes up Nevada's total GHG emissions. The biggest change in emissions in the state between 1990 and 2013 has been the rise and fall of electricity generation sector emissions. With the retirement of the Mohave Generating Station in 2005 and NV Energy moving away from coal-fired generation towards cheaper and cleaner burning natural gas, emissions in the sector peaked in 2005 with millions of metric tons more emissions than that sector currently emits (see Section 3: Electricity Generation). 6#18Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 2-2: Relative Contributions of Gross Emissions by Sector, Select Years 1990 Industrial Processes 4% Waste Management 2% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 13% 2010 Transportation 28% Waste Management 5% Industrial Processes 7% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 15% Agriculture 4% Fossil Fuel Industry 1% 2000 Agriculture 3% Industrial Processes 4% Waste Management 3% Electricity Generation 48% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 12% Agriculture 3% 2013 Fossil Fuel Industry 2% Transportation 31% Electricity Generation 37% Transportation 29% Waste Management 4% Industrial Processes 8% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 16% Agriculture 3% Fossil Fuel Industry 1% Electricity Generation 48% Fossil Fuel Industry 2% Transportation 33% Electricity Generation 34% This report also looks at the State's GHG emissions in terms of the individual contributions of the gases. Figure 2-3 shows the relative contributions of each GHG to Nevada's gross emissions. Emissions have clearly been dominated by CO₂ with 81 percent of emissions on average and 83 percent of 2013 emissions, followed by CH 4, with 14 percent of emissions on average and 11 percent of 2013 emissions, N₂O, with 3 percent of average emissions and 2 percent of 2013 emissions, and finally HFCS, PFCs, and SF6 which contributed 2 percent on average and 3 percent in 2013. The years in the Figure where CH4 emissions are a much larger portion of total emissions are due to large wildfires (see 1996, 1999, 2005 through 2007, and 2012). 9 Figure 2-3 ignores the effects of carbon sequestration in the forestry sector. 7#19Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 2-3: Relative Contributions of Individual GHGs, 1990 - 2013 100% ■CO2 90% ■CH4 80% HFC, PFC, and SF6 70% ■N20 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2.2 Projected Emissions (2014 to 2030) In nearly all sectors, there is projected to be a very slow but constant increase in GHG emissions for the period 2014 to 2030 which will be driven by predicted population and economic growth. In fact, over the entire period of study, 1990 to 2030, emissions incrementally increase with economic and population growth in nearly every category. The only instances when emissions decreased were during recessions or when a transformative technology was introduced to a sector that resulted in emissions being permanently reduced. Figure 2-4 illustrates Nevada's gross historical and projected emissions by sector from 1990 to 2030 with a dashed vertical line marking where the historical period ends and the projections begin. Overall, these projections indicate that Nevada's gross emissions of GHGs will increase by less than 1 MMTCO2eq between 2013 and 2030, reaching 44.877 MMTCO2eq in 2030. This is largely due to the continued emissions reductions in the electricity generation sector through the retirements of the state's aging coal-fired power plants and their replacement with natural gas and renewable energy-based forms of electricity generation. While statewide emissions will be nearly 10 MMTCO₂eq greater than 1990 emissions, it is more than 15 MMTCO2eq less than the State GHG emissions peak in 2005. 00 8#2060 60 Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 20 20 30 40 50 50 10 10 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 2-4: Nevada Historical and Projected Gross Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) T I 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electricity Generation Transportation Residential, Commercial, and Industrial ■Industrial Processes Waste Management Agriculture Fossil Fuel Industry ■Forestry 2.3 Nevada and the United States In comparing Nevada's GHG emissions to total US GHG emissions, there are multiple differences. First, total US GHG gross emissions were 6,800 MMTCO2eq for 2013.10 Net US emissions, after accounting for land use, land use change, and forestry sinks, were estimated to be 6,040.4 MMTCO2eq. Nevada accounted for 0.65 percent of both gross and net US GHG emissions; Nevada accounted for 0.88 percent of the US population in 2013. 2013 US GHG emissions were estimated to be 21.5 MTCO₂eq per person, whereas Nevadans are estimated to emit 15.7 MTCO2eq per person. The relative contributions of GHGs from each sector in this report when comparing the US and Nevada also differ. Figure 2-5 illustrates the relative contributions of both Nevada and US 2013 GHG emissions broken up by sector for comparison. Nationally, the US creates, on average, far more GHGs from the residential, commercial, and industrial combustion of fossil fuels (21 percent) than Nevada (16 percent). Agriculture emissions are also appreciably higher nationally (9 percent versus Nevada's 3 percent). Nevadans generate far more GHGs from the transportation sector than are generated nationally; 33 percent of Nevada's emissions are transportation based as compared to 26 percent nationally in 2013. Much of this likely has to do with Nevada's geography and comparatively small population per square mile of land. 10 EPA (2016) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 - 2014, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, D.C. EPA/430-R-16-002. April 15, 2016, p ES-4. 9#21Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Nevada Figure 2-5: Relative Contributions of Gross Emissions for Nevada and the US, 2013 Fossil Fuel Industry US Waste Management 4% Agriculture .2% 3% Industrial Processes 8% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 16% Transportation 33% Electricity Generation 34% 10 Fossil Fuel Industry Agriculture 9% 5% Waste Management 2% Industrial Processes 6% Electricity Generation 31% Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 21% Transportation 26%#22Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 3. 3.1 Electricity Generation Overview GHG emissions associated with electricity generation have long accounted for a significant fraction of Nevada's total emissions and the amount of GHGs released (overwhelmingly CO2, but in smaller amounts CH and N2O) depends on the type and quantity of fuel consumed during the production of electricity. Historically, Nevada's generation mix has been largely dependent on coal, a high carbon content fuel, but this has been changing over the past decade as the state's aging coal-fired power plants are retired and replaced with natural gas-fired power plants. Natural gas has about 55 percent the carbon content of coal per unit of useful energy. Thus, as Nevada's generation mix has begun to include more natural gas, Nevada has had less GHG emissions in spite of producing more electricity. 12 11 Historical emissions were calculated using two methods. From 1990 to 2009 emissions were calculated using the SIT. The SIT depends on information from the Energy Information Administration State Energy Data System (EIA-SEDS) to perform its calculations. The EIA-SEDS provides fuel consumption estimates for the electricity generation sector at the state level by calculating fuel consumption at a multi-state level and distributing the results back to the states. The fuel consumption estimates (the EIA-SEDS data) are then each multiplied by a specific emission factor that depends on the fuel type and the GHG being estimated. From 2010 to 2013 emissions were determined using the methodologies of EPA's Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID). 13 This database is a comprehensive source of data on the environmental characteristics of almost all electrical power generated in the United States. Unfortunately, eGRID is not updated on an annual basis. So instead of using eGRID directly for every year, the data sources that eGRID depends on were used to estimate GHG emissions when eGRID data was not directly available. 14 Projected emissions were determined by considering the emissions from Nevada's existing fleet of generating facilities (their expected usage, remaining useful life, etc.) and then adding to that the expected emissions of new generating facilities that are expected to be added to the state's fleet by 2030. New facilities were determined using regulatory filings submitted by Sierra Pacific Power Corporation (SPPC) and Nevada Power Company (NPC), collectively NV Energy. As a requirement to operating in the state, NV Energy has to submit Integrated Resource Plans and Energy Supply Plans to the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN) every 3 years for both SPPC and NPC. These documents provide information as to when NV Energy is expecting to put into service new units and what types of units it expects them to be. Knowing when a unit is expected to go into service, what type 11 Ibid, p 3-6. 12 This method does have drawbacks such as possible errors in the distributions resulting in under/overestimates of emissions. 13 When information was unavailable, CH4 and N2O emissions (minute contributors to total sector emissions) were still determined using the SIT. 14 https://www.epa.gov/energy/egrid (accessed October 2016). 11#23Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 of unit that is expected to go into service, and the expected average usage of the new unit provides enough information to estimate emissions. 3.2 Historical Emissions Electricity generation emissions are largely dependent on the fuel source being used to generate electricity. Nevada has for the past decade been moving away from coal-fired electric generation in favor of cleaner, less expensive, natural gas and, to a lesser extent, a variety of renewable energy sources (solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, and wind). Since the retirement of the Mohave Generating Station 15, electricity generation emissions have been reduced by more than 10 MMTCO2eq. In 2013, emissions were 15.144 MMTCO2eq as compared to 2005 emissions (2005 was the last year that Mohave was in operation), which were 26.213 MMTCO2eq. Table 3-1 lists historical emissions from the electricity generation sector. It also lists the CO2 emissions of the three main fossil fuel types used in the generation of electricity in the United States. This shows the proliferation of natural gas as the primary fuel source in the state and the slow decline of coal-fired generation. Table 3-1: Electricity Generation Sector Historical Emissions, MMTCO₂eq 1990 1995 Total CO2, all fuels 16.777 18.190 2000 2005 24.673 26.114 Coal 15.198 14.792 18.049 17.977 2010 16.801 7.180 2011 2012 2013 14.152 14.611 15.107 5.699 4.268 5.559 Petroleum 0.249 0.024 0.054 0.019 0.000 0.167 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas 1.331 3.374 6.569 8.118 9.621 8.286 10.343 9.548 Total CH4, all fuels Total N₂O, all fuels Total Emissions 0.005 0.005 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.073 0.072 0.087 0.091 0.039 16.855 18.267 24.771 26.213 16.858 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.031 0.027 0.031 14.190 14.665 15.144 Figure 3-1 illustrates historical electricity generation sector emissions in the state from 1990 to 2013. Very large changes to the state's emissions often have to do with the opening or closing of a plant (for example 2005 versus 2006 emissions and the closure of the Mohave Generating Station). The short term changes to emissions, or those that generally happen on an annual basis, have far more to do with things like the weather and the economy. An especially hot summer could mean hundreds of thousands of A/C units being used when they otherwise wouldn't and power plants would need to be utilized to meet that demand and thus emissions increase. 15 The Mohave Generating Station was a 1,580 MW coal-fired power plant in Nevada that was retired in 2005. 12#24Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 30 Figure 3-1: Electricity Generation Sector Emissions, 1990 – 2013 (MMTCO2eq) 25 20 15 10 N20, all fuels ■CH4, all fuels 5 CO2, Natural Gas CO2, Petroleum CO2, Coal 0+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 An alternative way to look at Nevada's electricity generation sector is through generation. Figure 3-2 illustrates data provided by the EIA on electricity generation amounts by fuel type in the state from 1990 to 2015.16 One of the benefits to viewing the sector presented in this way is that all fuel types are considered, not just ones that emit GHGs. The renewable generation of electricity has long been a part of Nevada's diverse generation mixture. The generation of electricity via hydroelectric dams and geothermal deposits has been present prior to 1990 and the recent expansion into solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, and wind show that renewable generation has become a relied upon portion of the state's generation mix. The increasing use of renewable generation is important in mitigating GHG emissions because it means that for every megawatt (MW) of fossil fuel generation that is replaced with renewable generation, or for every MW of renewable capacity that is installed to meet future demand, GHG emissions are being offset. 17 Nevada currently has three coal-fired power plants in the state. Two of these plants, the Reid Gardner and North Valmy generating stations, have planned and tentative retirement dates prior to 2030, respectively. The third, TS Power Plant owned by the Newmont Mining Corporation, is a 242 MW plant that went into operation in 2008 and overwhelmingly supplies its generation to the Corporation's mining activities. It is likely that this plant will be in operation well past 2030. With the planned retirements of Reid Gardner and North Valmy generating stations NV Energy must replace the generating capacity of these plants to continue to meet consumer demand. 16 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data.cfm#generation (accessed October 2016). 17 The Reid Gardner Generating Station had its first unit come online in 1965 and will see its final unit shutdown at the end of 2017; the North Valmy Generating Station, whose first unit went into operation in 1981, has a tentative retirement planned for 2025. 13#25Generation (MWh) Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 3-2: Electricity Generation Sector Generation by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2015 (MWh) 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Coal Natural Gas Hydroelectric ■Geothermal Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Petroleum Other Biomass Wood and Wood Derived Fuels Wind Other Other Gases 3.3 Projected Emissions Electricity generation sector emissions are expected to continue to decline in the state. As stated above, with the retirements of the state's aging coal-fired power plants, that coal-fired capacity will need to be replaced and NV Energy has indicated in separate PUCN filings that they intend to do so primarily with natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) facilities." In 2030, sector emissions are projected to be 11.803 19 18 MMTCO2eq and the electricity generation sector will no longer be the primary source of GHG emissions in the state. Figure 3-3 illustrates historical and projected electricity generation sector emissions in Nevada from 1990 to 2030 with the dashed line in the figure showing where historical emissions end and projected emissions begin. NV Energy's filings to the PUCN indicate, under a business-as-usual case, when they are expecting to put a new unit online and the specific types of units that they are planning to put into use. This information is used with estimates of the new unit's average usage to project 18 NV Energy indicated that the Reid Gardner Generating Station's generating capacity would be replaced with NGCC capacity in Volume 12 of NPC's 2016-2035 Integrated Resource Plan (PUCN docket #15-07004) and they indicated that North Valmy's capacity would be replaced with a NGCC unit in Volume 10 of its SPPC's 2017-2036 Integrated Resource Plan (PUCN docket #16-07001). 19 The transportation sector is projected to overtake the electricity generation sector in terms of emissions as early as 2015. 14#26Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 emissions.20 Emissions from existing units are estimated using averages of past emissions. One of the problems with estimating emissions in this way is that a unit that has historically been underutilized has the possibility of being used to capacity in the future to meet demand, which may result in underestimated emissions. Figure 3-3: Historical and Projected Electricity Generation Sector Emissions, 1990 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 30 25 20 15 10 10 5 N20, all fuels ■CH4, all fuels Natural Gas ■Petroleum ■Coal 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20 While it is reasonable to assume that that some of the needed capacity from the retiring base-load coal-fired facilities could be replaced with renewable generation, thereby further reducing the state's GHG emissions, the business-as-usual cases presented by NV Energy do not make that assumption so it is not assumed here. 15#27Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 4. 4.1 Transportation Overview The transportation sector has been and continues to be a significant source of GHG emissions in the state, second only to the electricity generation sector (Section 3). However, with the continued shutdown of coal-fired electric generating units across the state and the adoption of natural gas and renewable energy generation (e.g., solar, wind, and geothermal), the transportation sector is projected to exceed the electricity generation sector in terms of emissions as early as 2015 and will become the largest source of GHG emissions in the state. Historical and projected emissions for the transportation sector were calculated based on the SIT. The GHGs calculated in this sector are CO2, CH 4, and N2O. CO2 emissions from vehicles are considered to be relatively easy to estimate as they are the result of fossil fuel combustion and can be directly related to the type of fossil fuel and the amount combusted. CH 4 and N2O emissions from gasoline and diesel- powered vehicles are the result of complex combustion dynamics that, while dependent on many factors like installed vehicle technologies, air-to-fuel ratio, temperature, and other characteristics, can only be estimated to a degree of certainty. Emissions from alternative fuel vehicles are also considered. In estimating CO₂ emissions, the SIT depends on information from the EIA-SEDS to perform its calculations. The EIA-SEDS provides fuel consumption estimates for the transportation sector at the state level. It does this by calculating fuel consumption on a multi-state, regional level and then distributing the results back to the individual states in the region. 21 When projecting emissions, it takes into consideration the average fuel consumption of recent years in order to get future consumption estimates at a multi-state, regional level before redistributing the results back to the states in the region. In order to estimate CH and N2O emissions (minor contributors to total sector emissions), the types and conditions of vehicles, vehicle fuel types, and vehicle miles of travel (VMT), each in a given year, are needed. CH4 and N2O emissions are estimated by disaggregating said data into different vehicle categories and classes of age (using national averages) and applying emissions factors for various vehicle attributes. The SIT provides estimates for all of the needed data and provides opportunities for states to replace the data when and if they have more refined estimates (typically generated by state/local entities) they would prefer to use. 4.2 Historical Emissions Historical emissions from the transportation sector peaked in 2007 at 18.508 MMTCO2eq and this appears to have been due to the economic recession. In 2013, emissions were estimated to be 14.492 MMTCO2eq. Figure 4-1 illustrates total sector emissions compared to VMT and also compared to Nevada's population. Figure 4-1 clearly depicts a breakdown in the correlation that at one point existed between these datasets and total sector emissions during the recession. 21 This method can result in under/overestimating emissions as the disaggregations for the original region is based on comparisons of population and GDP amongst the state's in the group. 16#28Population VMT (millions) Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 4-1: Total Historical Transportation Sector Emissions Compared Against VMT and Nevada State Population, 1990 to 2013 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 VMT Total Emissions 2 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Population 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Total Emissions 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Figure 4-2 illustrates the CO2 emissions of the three major fuel types as a 2D area affect compared to VMT in the state. Even though all three fuel types show the effects of the recession in terms of reduced emissions, jet fuel/kerosene shows the most pronounced and prolonged retraction in emissions. If you consider that jet fuel/kerosene usage 22 is predominantly associated with air travel, it appears as though the disparity between transportation emissions and VMT that begins with the recession can largely be attributed to air travel in Nevada returning to pre-recession levels at a very different rate than the rest of the fuel use in the sector. 22 Kerosene is also used to a much lesser extent in diesel powered vehicles (where it is referred to as #1 diesel). 17#29Fuel Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 20 Figure 4-2: Fuel Type CO2 Emissions Compared to VMT in Nevada, 1990 - 2013 30,000 18 16 14 12 10 8 16 + 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 I CO2, Jet Fuel/Kerosene I CO2, Distillate Fuel 5,000 I CO2, Motor Gasoline VMT 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 VMT (Millions) Historical emissions from the transportation sector are listed in Table 4-1. The table shows total sector emissions and total CH4 and N2O emissions for select years and it also highlights the emissions from fuels that either make up a very large portion of sector emissions or are used to power AFVs in the state. Diesel powered vehicle fuel emissions come from jet fuel/kerosene (to a much lesser extent) and distillate fuel (which is the majority of diesel vehicle fuel emissions); when used in diesel-powered vehicles these fuels are otherwise referred to as #1 and #2 diesel, respectively. The SIT does not provide for the separation of fuel types in a way to highlight diesel fuel emissions specifically. Table 4-1: Transportation Sector Historical Emissions, MMTCO₂eq Total CO2, all fuels 1990 9.438 Distillate Fuel 1.418 1995 2000 2005 2010 11.435 14.521 16.794 13.880 1.844 2.694 3.674 3.253 2.987 2011 2012 2013 13.282 13.855 14.311 3.094 3.177 Jet Fuel, Kerosene 1.638 2.947 3.753 3.341 1.541 1.249 1.835 1.945 LPG 0.005 0.005 0.000 0.021 0.017 0.014 0.022 0.019 Motor Gasoline 5.468 6.521 7.940 9.531 8.808 8.619 8.591 8.817 Natural Gas 0.043 0.046 0.070 0.149 0.211 0.258 0.376 0.308 Other Fuels 0.866 0.072 0.064 0.078 0.050 0.048 0.044 0.045 Total CH4, all fuels 0.043 0.047 0.040 0.033 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.022 Total N₂O, all fuels Total Emissions 0.326 0.486 0.530 9.807 11.967 15.091 0.400 0.210 0.197 0.179 0.160 17.226 14.112 13.502 14.057 14.492 Despite the increase in VMT since 2009, transportation emissions have been somewhat stable due to a cleaner fleet of motor vehicles statewide. This is the result of the EPA's strengthening of vehicle emissions standards. Beginning in 1996, vehicles not only came equipped with an onboard diagnostics system to self-test for emissions systems failures, but they also faced much more rigorous federal emissions standards. The EPA has continued to strengthen new vehicle emissions standards as well as vehicle fuel standards. As older vehicles "age-out" of the fleet consisting of all on-road vehicles and are 18#30Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 replaced with newer models, the fleet will emit less CO2 per vehicle as a whole and grow cleaner. However, even though the fleet continues to grow cleaner on a per vehicle basis, this is counterbalanced by an increasing number of vehicles on Nevada's highways and higher AVMT, which may contribute to a growth in emissions. 4.3 Projected Emissions Total sector emissions in 2030 are projected to increase to 16.698 MMTCO2eq, which is still lower than the sector's 2007 high. Figure 4-3 shows the historical and projected emissions estimates from the transportation sector from 1990 to 2030. The dashed vertical line in the figure shows where the historical period ends and the projections begin. The sector will remain largely flat in terms of emissions over the projected period with the overwhelming majority of emissions coming from CO2 based sources such as motor gasoline, distillate fuel, and jet fuel/kerosene. This stands to reason when considering the advances in vehicle technologies that will likely lead to the automotive industry meeting the EPA's Model Year 2022 to 2025 average 54.5 miles per gallon fuel economy standard. Decreases in fleet-wide fuel consumption will proportionally reduce CO2 emissions, which will be offset by projected increases to the state's population and subsequent increases in numbers of vehicles and VMT. Figure 4-3: Historical and Projected Transportation Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2030 Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 16 4 (MMTCO₂eq) T Total N2O, all fuels Total CH4, all fuels Other CO2 CO2, Jet Fuel/Kerosene I CO2, Distillate Fuel CO2, Motor Gasoline 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 19 2025 2030#31Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 5. Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 5.1 Overview This section summarizes the GHG emissions associated with the burning of fuels in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Industrial Process emissions, that is, emissions associated with the transformation of raw materials from one state to another that results in the release of GHGs into the atmosphere, is discussed in Section 6. The GHG emissions accounted for in this sector are CO2, CH4, and N₂O. Emissions are generally calculated by applying specific emission factors (expressed in mass of carbon per unit of energy content, e.g. lbs GHG/BTU) and combustion efficiency (expressed in percentages) to the different types of fuels consumed in each sector. Table 5-1 lists the types of fuel consumed by each sub-sector. 23, 24 Table 5-1: Fuel Types Consumed by Sub-Sector Fuel Type Residential Commercial Industrial Coal Coal Coal Other coal Natural Gas Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Distillate fuel Distillate fuel Distillate fuel Kerosene Kerosene Kerosene Liquefied Petroleum Petroleum Gas (LPG) LPG Motor gasoline Residual fuel LPG Motor gasoline Residual fuel Lubricants Asphalt/Road oil Crude oil Feedstocks Still gas Special naphthas Unfinished oils Waxes Aviation gasoline blending components Motor gasoline blending components The SIT also takes into account that some industrial processes (e.g., road asphalting or synthetic rubber production) consume fossil fuels (e.g., oil or LPG) in a manner that permanently stores that fuel into the final product with no emissions into the atmosphere. The SIT provides emission factors, energy content, combustion efficiencies, and the fractions of permanently stored fuels. Fuel consumption data was provided by the EIA-SEDS.25 23 ICF (2016) User's Guide for Estimating Direct Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion Using the State Inventory Tool, ICF International, Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. February 2016, p 1.6. 24 Some fuels that are considered by the SIT are not included in this table as there was zero consumption in Nevada over the 1990 to 2013 period. 25 It is important to note that the way the EIA-SEDS disaggregates fossil-fuel can result in under/overestimates of emissions versus the other states in the original "group". This is due to the methods of redistribution which are largely comparisons of populations and in some cases gross domestic products (GDPs). 20#32Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 5.2 Historical Emissions Nevada's 2013 residential, commercial, and industrial emissions were estimated to be 6.807 MMTCO2eq. Sector emissions accounted for 15.3 percent of the state's net GHG emissions in 1990 and 17.4 percent 2013. Table 5-2 below lists historical sector emissions by GHG and by sub-sector. Emissions from this sector for 2013 are dominated by CO2 (more than 99 percent). Table 5-2: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sector Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Total CO2 4.399 1990 1995 2005 5.797 5.907 6.773 2000 2010 2011 6.841 2012 2013 6.001 5.989 6.763 Residential 1.192 1.310 1.835 2.217 2.363 2.393 2.168 2.454 Commercial 1.067 1.432 1.625 1.760 1.823 1.872 1.758 1.930 Industrial 2.140 3.056 2.470 2.796 2.655 1.736 2.064 2.379 Total CH4 0.029 0.034 0.042 0.030 0.027 0.026 0.025 0.031 Residential 0.021 0.023 0.030 0.019 0.017 0.017 0.016 0.021 Commercial 0.005 0.006 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Industrial 0.003 0.005 0.004 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.003 0.004 Total N₂O 0.012 0.016 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.013 Residential 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.004 Commercial 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.002 Industrial 0.007 0.010 0.007 0.010 0.008 0.005 0.007 0.007 Total Emissions 4.441 5.848 5.987 6.819 6.880 6.037 6.025 6.807 Figure 5-1 depicts sector emissions from 1990 to 2013. Industrial sub-sector emissions were the major GHG contributor until 2011 when they were surpassed by residential emissions. Figure 5-2 illustrates the relative contributions of each of the sub-sector's GHG emissions from 1990 to 2013. Emissions of CO2, largely from the combustion of natural gas, were the largest source of emissions in both the residential and commercial sub-sectors while petroleum was the largest source of emissions in the industrial sub-sector. 21 24#33Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 5-1: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO₂eq) 8 Industrial 7 ■Commercial Residential 10 3 2 1 0- 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure 5-2: Relative Contributions of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sub- Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 Residential 100% 80% 60% 40% Natural Gas Wood Petroleum ■Coal 20% 0% + 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Commercial Natural Gas Wood Petroleum ■ Coal 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 22#34100% 80% Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 60% Natural Gas ■Wood 40% Petroleum Coal 20% Industrial 0% T T 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 5.3 Projected Emissions Residential, commercial, and industrial sector emissions projections were calculated using the SIT. Through the utilization of EIA-SEDS fuel consumption projections, the SIT projects GHG emissions. It also utilizes EIA fuel-specific carbon coefficients that are paired with corresponding combustion efficiencies. The one drawback to this approach is that it does all of this in a top-down fashion. That is, the EIA-SEDS (and the SIT projection tool) project fuel consumption on a multi-state "regional" level and disaggregates the results back to the states by comparing the populations and GDPs of the states in the region. The result, in this instance, is to project that Nevada emissions will be immediately reduced by more than 1 MMCO2eq and then not reach 2013 levels again before 2030. Figure 5-3 illustrates the historical and projected emissions estimates from the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors from 1990 to 2030. The dashed vertical line shows where the historical period ends and the projections begin. Once again, the SIP projection tool creates a reduction in emissions that NDEP does not believe is accurate. Unfortunately, there is no better way to estimate future emissions in this sector. The only significant trend in these projections is that sector emissions will continue to rise. Total sector emissions in 2030 are projected to be 6.420 MMTCO2eq which is less than the 2013 estimate of 6.807 MMTCO2eq. 23#358.0 Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 20 2.0 1.0 0.0 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 5-3: Historical and Projected Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) I Industrial Commercial Residential 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 14 24#36Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 6. Industrial Process 6.1 Overview This section reports GHG emissions from non-energy related industrial processes in Nevada. In these processes, it is the transformation of raw materials from one state to another that results in the release of GHGs into the atmosphere. The GHGs associated with industrial process related activities that were considered in this report include CO2, N2O, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF). Table 6-1 lists the industrial processes that were considered in this report, the associated type of GHG emissions, and a brief description of sources and methodologies used to estimate GHG emissions. Processes that are not present in Nevada or for which no data is available, but are considered in the SIT, are not considered in this report. Table 6-1: Reported Industrial Processes in Nevada Associated Data Source Activity Data Required GHG emissions SIT Cement Manufacture CO₂ Emission factors and production data for clinker and cement kiln dust Lime Manufacture CO₂ Limestone and Dolomite CO₂ Use Ammonia production & CO₂ Urea consumption Soda Ash Consumption CO₂ Emission factors and production data for high-calcium lime and for dolomitic lime Emission factors and consumption data for limestone, dolomite, and magnesium produced from dolomite Emission factors and ammonia production and urea consumption data Emission factors and consumption data for ash Emission factor, production data, and percent N2O Released after pollution control for nitric acid production National emissions, state and U.S. population USGS Minerals Yearbook Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program SIT USGS Minerals Yearbook Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program SIT USGS Minerals Yearbook SIT SIT USGS Minerals Yearbook US Census and NV Census SIT NV GHG Emission Inventory (2012) Nitric Acid Production N₂O Ozone Depleting Substance SIT (ODS) Substitutes HFC, PFC, SF6 US Census and NV Census Semiconductor HFC, PFC, SF6 Manufacturing Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Systems HFC, PFC, SF6 National emissions, Economic Census Emission factor and national SF6 consumption data for electric power transmission and distribution. Electricity sales at national and state level SIT SIT DOE - EIA 6.2 Historical Emissions Nevada's 2013 industrial process emissions were estimated to be 3.550 MMTCO2eq. This accounted for 8 percent of the state's gross GHG emissions. Table 6-2 below lists historical industrial process emissions. Emissions have steadily increased since 1990 largely due to the manufacture of Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS) substitutes. According to the EPA's 2016 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, "[t]he use and subsequent emissions of HFCS and PFCs as ODS substitutes has been increasing... This increase was in large part the result of efforts to phase out CFCs and other ODSs in the United States. In the short term, this trend is expected to continue, and will likely continue over the 25 25#37Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 27 next decade." There is a large increase in lime and cement manufacturing related emissions between 2009 and 2010 (and going forward). This is due to a change in datasets in these two processes. In 2010, facilities started reporting their GHG emissions directly to the EPA; those emissions are available to the public through the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). Prior to 2010, in this report, cement and lime manufacturing related emissions were estimated using the SIT methodologies. Table 6-2: Industrial Process Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Sub-Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 Total CO2 1.045 0.936 1.275 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.273 1.162 1.872 2.012 1.981 2.053 Cement Manufacture 0.288 0.270 0.359 0.362 0.216 0.421 0.433 0.397 0.438 Lime Manufacture 0.744 0.621 0.861 0.843 0.902 1.405 1.531 1.539 1.551 Limestone and Dolomite Use 0.029 0.036 0.047 0.025 0.027 0.030 0.026 0.045 Soda Ash 0.013 0.016 0.019 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.019 0.018 0.019 Urea Consumption 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total N₂O - 0.250 0.271 0.253 - - - - Nitric Acid Production 0.250 0.271 0.253 Total HFC, PFC, and SF6 0.169 0.370 0.753 1.048 1.291 1.358 1.391 1.444 1.497 ODS Substitutes 0.001 0.203 0.632 0.903 1.171 1.262 1.294 1.347 1.400 Semiconductor Manufacturing 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Systems Total Emissions 0.167 1.214 0.167 0.120 0.143 0.120 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 1.556 2.298 2.573 2.453 3.230 3.403 3.425 3.550 Figure 6-1 shows the historical process emissions from 1990 to 2013 and Figure 6-2 shows the relative contributions of the GHGs to this sector's emissions from 1990 to 2013. When looking at lime manufacture, the impact of using the GHGRP's dataset (that is based on directly reported facility emissions) is clearly shown. Also, HFC, PFC, and SF6 are all highly potent GHGs (see Table 1-1) and as they continue to replace ODSs the emissions associated with this process will continue to rise. 26 EPA (2016), Op Cit, p 4-97. 27 This alternative dataset was used as per the SIT methodologies. 26#38Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 6-1: Industrial Process Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO₂eq) Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Systems Semiconductor Manufacturing IODS Substitutes Nitric Acid Production Urea Consumption Soda Ash Limestone and Dolomite Use 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 I Lime Manufacture Cement Manufacture Figure 6-2: Relative Contributions of Industrial Process Related GHGs, 1990 - 2013 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% HFC, PFC, and SF6 10% ■N20 CO2 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 6.3 Projected Emissions The method of projecting emissions from industrial processes differed based on the process, and were conducted as recommended by the SIT. In general, trends from the period 1990-2013 (with a focus in some instances on the years following the recession) were used to project emissions for 2014-2030. In some cases, different and/or alternative approaches were adopted and compared. Figure 6-3 illustrates historical and projected GHG emissions for the industrial process sector; the dashed vertical line marks the end of historical emissions and the beginning of the projections. The first thing that might be 27#39Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 noticed in the projections is the rate of increasing ODS substitute emissions. ODS substitute emissions are projected to increase from 1.460 MMtCO2eq in 2013 to 2.277 MMtCO2eq in 2030. Their contribution to total IP GHG emissions will increase from 39.4 percent in 2013 to 50.5 percent in 2030. The next two-largest contributors of GHG emissions are lime and cement manufacture and they have comparatively little growth in the near term. Increases in emissions related to these sectors are largely dependent upon construction of new manufacturing facilities and there simply aren't any that have been announced. 5 + ♡ Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) 1 Figure 6-3: Historical and Projected Industrial Process Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Systems Semiconductor Manufacturing ODS Substitutes Nitric Acid Production Urea Consumption Soda Ash Limestone and Dolomite Use Lime Manufacture Cement Manufacture 28#40Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 7. Waste Management 7.1 Overview 28 Waste management sector GHG emissions are separated into two source categories, solid waste and wastewater treatment. Emissions from solid waste in Nevada are calculated based on waste in landfills. In landfills, CO2 and CH 4 are produced through the decomposition of organic matter. The decomposition process is relatively complex and long-lived and results in a biogas consisting of roughly equal parts CO2 and CH 4 by volume. Neither the directly emitted CO2 nor the converted CO2 emitted from combusting CH at landfills are counted as anthropogenic GHG emissions. This is because the carbon primarily released by the decomposition of organic materials derived from biomass sources (e.g., food waste and yard trimmings) is an initially sequestered, equivalent amount of carbon (in the form of CO2) drawn from the atmosphere. While some of Nevada's landfills simply flare recovered landfill gas, thereby converting the CH4 portion of the biogas into CO2, the largest of Nevada's landfills collects and burns its biogas to generate electricity in a process known as landfill-gas-to-energy (LFGTE). Wastewater emissions in Nevada are the result of the treatment of municipal and industrial wastewater. Generally, wastewater is treated by technologies designed to accelerate naturally occurring processes. Aerobic and anaerobic conditions are created, resulting in the release of CH 4 through the decomposition of organic matter in the wastewater and the release of N2O through the concurrent nitrification and denitrification of the wastewater. The SIT methodologies were used to estimate GHG emissions. Emissions for solid waste were estimated by using historical EPA landfill estimates 29, data received from the NDEP's Bureau of Waste Management, and the EPA Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP), which was also used in this report to estimate the impacts of landfill flaring and LFGTE projects. Emissions from the treatment of municipal wastewater were estimated using Nevada state population figures. Emission factors and emissions from the treatment of industrial wastewater used in the processing of red meat were provided in the SIT. The sources of the dataset used to estimate waste management sector GHG emissions are summarized in Table 7-1. Table 7-1: Sources Used to Estimate Waste Management Sector GHG Emissions Process Source Reference Emission factors Solid waste totals - SIT - SIT http://ndep.nv.gov/bwm/index.htm - NDEP Bureau of Waste Management Landfill flaring and LFGTE projects - EPA Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP) https://www.epa.gov/lmop Wastewater treatment - SIT 28 No municipal solid waste in Nevada undergoes incineration. N2O is a direct result of waste incineration. Therefore, there are no N2O emissions associated with solid waste in Nevada. 29 EPA's landfill estimates are based on waste-in-place (WIP) figures (obtained via a variety of sources including the Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP) and working with local state agencies across the country) redistributed across the years of activity based on Nevada's population statistics. 29#41Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 7.2 Solid Waste It is estimated that landfill waste continues to emit CH4 for decades after its initial emplacement. Emission rates from landfills follow a first order decay model, with ever-diminishing levels of CH 4 being released for decades. Depending on the climate, the rate of decay of the organic matter in landfills can change (arid climates such as Nevada's means landfill waste takes longer to decay). Therefore, in order to calculate annual emissions from landfills it is not only important to estimate the current waste in place (WIP), (i.e., the amount of waste since the beginning of landfill activity), but also the relative amount of waste that has been historically emplaced on an annual basis. Landfill waste in this report is divided into two categories, municipal solid waste (MSW) and industrial landfill waste. MSW is solid waste that originates from residential, commercial, and institutional sources. Industrial waste is non-hazardous solid waste generated at industrial plants and construction sites, and from demolition debris. MSW and industrial waste are stored in the same landfills in Nevada but are assumed to have different organic fractions; that is, the percentage of organic matter in their waste that will decompose to form CO2 and CH 4. The EPA assumes that MSW has a 65 percent organic fraction and that industrial waste has an 11 percent organic fraction. These assumed organic fractions are then applied to Nevada's ratio of MSW to industrial waste (Nevada's ratio is assumed to be different from the national average) and the CH4 producing capacity of Nevada's industrial landfill waste can be calculated.31 7.2.1 Historical Emissions 30 Nevada's solid waste emissions in 2013 were 1.449 MMTCO2eq. This represented roughly 4 percent of the state's gross CO2eq emissions. Solid waste emissions peaked in 2011 at 1.915 MMTCO2eq. That emissions peaked is due to the installation of gas-recovery systems. The installation of gas-recovery systems in Nevada did not occur until the late 1990s (the first landfill flaring activity began in 1998 and the first LFGTE project began operating in 2012). The installation of this equipment significantly reduces the GWP of Nevada's landfills as it effectively converts the CH 4 fraction of the landfill's emissions into CO2.32 Table 7-2 lists historical solid waste emissions estimates. Figure 7-1 shows the historical emissions from 1990 to 2013; in the figure actual emissions are solid and avoided emissions from gas- recovery systems are the dashed areas at the top of the figure. 30 EPA (1993) Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United States, Estimates for 1990: Report to Congress, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation. Washington, D.C. EPA/430-R-93-003. April 1993, 4- 19. 31 The assumed CH 4 producing capacity of industrial landfill waste as a percentage of the CH 4 producing capacity of the MSW nationally is 7 percent. This report assumes Nevada's producing capacity is 10.22 percent. 32 Note that the 100 year GWP of CH 4 is 25 times greater than that of CO2. 30#42Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 1990 0.620 0.840 Sub-Sector Waste Emissions Table 7-2: Nevada Solid Waste Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) 1995 2000 2005 1.219 MSW 0.562 0.762 1.106 Industrial Waste 0.057 0.078 0.113 Avoided emissions Landfill Flaring LFGTE -0.052 -0.052 1.455 0.149 -0.052 -0.052 2010 1.603 2.015 2.078 1.828 0.187 2011 2012 2013 2.133 2.180 1.885 0.193 -0.163 -0.163 -0.294 -0.731 -0.163. -0.163 1.935 0.198 1.978 0.202 -0.163 -0.163 -0.131 -0.569 0.620 0.840 1.167 1.551 1.852 1.915 1.839 1.449 Total Emissions Figure 7-1: Solid Waste Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO₂eq) Landfill flaring 2.5 LFGTE ■MSW 2.0 Industrial waste Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) 1.5 10 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 7.2.2 Projected Emissions Emissions from solid waste are expected to grow through 2030 with the previous 2012 peak being surpassed in 2022. This is because waste is tied to changes in population. As Nevada's population increases, so too will its solid waste. Projections of solid waste have been traditionally tied directly to changes in Nevada's population; that is, when the population increases by a particular percent, there is an equal increase in waste disposed. One of the problems with this method is that it fails to consider changes in recycling efforts, gas-recovery systems, and other changes relating to how people manage their waste and how waste is treated once it gets to the landfill. Because of this, projected emissions in this report are based on forecasted post-recession WIP figures. In this estimate, projections for solid waste emissions do not include increases to landfill gas-recovery systems as none have been formally announced and data in regards to the scaling of existing systems was unavailable. Figure 7-2 shows the historical emissions and a projection of solid waste emissions; actual emissions are solid and avoided emissions from gas-recovery are the dashed areas at the top of the figure. The vertical dashed line marks the end of historical emissions and the beginning of the projections. 31#43Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 7.3 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 7-2: Historical and Projected Solid Waste Emissions, 1990 – 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) Landfill flaring LFGTE MSW Industrial waste 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Wastewater The disposal and treatment of municipal and industrial wastewater results in the emission of CH 4 and N2O. The amount of CH 4 produced depends on the organic content (or loading) of the water (expressed in terms of biochemical oxygen demand); wastewater with a high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) will emit more CH4. Emissions of N2O depend on the nitrogen content of the wastewater, which is itself dependent on the consumption of dietary proteins in the population. 7.3.1 Historical Emissions Wastewater emissions in Nevada are a minute source of the state's total GHG emissions. Nevada's total wastewater emissions in 2013 were 0.302 MMTCO2eq. Because wastewater emissions are in general tied to population, every year that the state's population increases the emissions associated with the treatment of wastewater will likely also increase. Table 7-3 lists historical wastewater emissions and Figure 7-3 shows the historical emissions from 1990 to 2013. Note that the emissions associated with the treatment of industrial wastewater are negligible. 33 Table 7-3: Nevada Wastewater Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) Sub-Sector Municipal Wastewater Treatment CH4 Emissions NO Emissions Industrial CH4 Total Emissions 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.129 0.163 0.217 0.257 0.292 0.293 0.298 0.302 0.098 0.122 0.162 0.192 0.032 0.041 0.055 0.065 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.129 0.163 0.217 0.257 0.218 0.216 0.075 0.076 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.292 0.293 0.221 0.223 0.077 0.078 0.000 0.298 0.302 33 In Nevada, industrial wastewater emissions are the result of the processing of red meat. 32#44Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 0.35 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 7-3: Wastewater Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq) Industrial CH4 Municipal N20 0.30 ■Municipal CH4 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 7.3.2 Projected Emissions Emissions from wastewater treatment were projected by forecasting the linear trend from the 1990 to 2013 historical period, as recommended by the SIT. Emissions from the treatment of wastewater are predicted to account for less than 20 percent of total waste management emissions without any significant change in their contribution for the period 2014 to 2030. Figure 7-4 shows the historical and projected wastewater treatment emissions; the vertical dashed line marks the end of the historical emissions and the beginning of the projections. Figure 7-4: Historical and Projected Wastewater Treatment Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 0.50 Industrial CH4 0.45 Municipal N20 0.40 ■Municipal CH4 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 33#45Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 8. 8.1 Agricultural Sector Emissions Overview This section reports CH4 and N2O emissions from agricultural activities in Nevada. Several processes are considered in the agricultural sector, but in this report they are generally categorized as enteric fermentation, management of livestock manure, management of agricultural soils, and agricultural residue burning. Enteric fermentation produces CH4 and is a natural product of animal digestion; ruminants (four-stomached mammals such as cattle, sheep, and goats) are particularly high CH4 emitters because of their unique digestive process. Livestock manure (i.e., animal waste) produces both CH4 and N₂O during the manure's natural decomposition process. Agricultural soils emissions are the result of the release of N2O. This occurs through three main pathways; 1, direct emissions due to the harvesting of plants; 2, direct and indirect emissions from fertilizer application; and 3, direct and indirect emissions due to animal waste in pastures, ranges, and paddocks. Finally, agricultural residue burning emissions (both CH4 and N2O) are the result of burning crop wastes. 34 Depending on their source, emissions associated with energy production for use in the agricultural sector are split between Section 3: Electricity Generation and Section 5: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors. Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels used in agricultural equipment are included in Section 4: Transportation. The SIT methodologies were used to estimate GHG emissions. Emissions were estimated by relating estimated livestock populations, crop production, and fertilizer use with process specific emission factors. The sources of the dataset used to estimate agricultural sector GHG emissions are summarized in Table 8-1. Process Table 8-1: Sources Used to Estimate Agricultural Sector GHG Emissions Source Reference 8.2 Emission factors Livestock population data Crop production data Fertilizer use data - SIT - National Agriculture Statistics Service of the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service of the USDA The Association of American Plant Food Control Officials (AAPFCO) via the SIT Historical Emissions https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/ https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/ http://www.aapfco.org/ Nevada's agricultural sector is a minor source of the state's GHG emissions. Historical agricultural emissions peaked in 2001 with 1.702 MMTCO2eq and this is due largely to emissions from enteric fermentation also peaking in 2001; sector emissions have been in slow decline since. Table 8-2 shows the agricultural sector emissions broken down by sub-sector. Total 2013 agricultural sector emissions were estimated to be 1.436 MMTCO2eq. Overall, emissions from enteric fermentation accounted for roughly 58 percent of total sector emissions; agricultural soil management (including synthetic and 34 The process of agricultural residue burning releases CO2 as well as CH and N₂O, but in accordance with international GHG accounting guidelines, the SIT Agriculture module does not include CO2 emissions from crop residue burning. 34#46Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 organic fertilization, tilling practices and production of nitrogen-fixing crops) accounted for about 27 percent; and manure management accounted for about 14 percent of total emissions in the agriculture sector. While residue burning is practiced in Nevada, emissions from this activity were negligible. Table 8-2: Nevada Agricultural Sector Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Sub-Sector Enteric Fermentation Manure Management Ag Soils Agricultural Residue Burning Total Emissions 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.900 0.946 0.970 0.978 0.879 0.891 0.909 0.839 0.126 0.142 0.167 0.169 0.200 0.201 0.208 0.205 0.457 0.461 0.505 0.489 0.479 0.477 0.446 0.392 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.484 1.550 1.642 1.636 1.558 1.570 1.563 1.436 Figure 8-1 shows agriculture sector emissions from 1990 to 2013 highlighting the emissions of each of the above mentioned processes; note that agricultural residue burning emissions are not visible in Figure 8-1 because its contributions are negligible. Figure 8-2 shows the relative contributions of CH4 and N2O emissions of the agricultural sector in Nevada. CH4 is the main gas contributing to agricultural sector GHG emissions and this is because enteric fermentation leads to CH4 generation. Figure 8-1: Agricultural Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq) Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Ag Soils Agricultural Residue Burning ■Manure Management Enteric Fermentation 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 35#47Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 8-2: Relative Contributions of CH 4 and N₂O of Agricultural Sector Emissions, 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% N20 Emissions 10% ■CH4 Emissions 0% 1990 1990-2013 1995 2000 2005 2010 8.3 Projected Emissions Projected emissions in this sector were based on the assumption that growth in this sector would largely resemble recent historical trends in changes to livestock populations, agricultural soils, and agricultural residue burning. The methods presented in the SIT were applied to forecasted livestock populations in order to estimate emissions. Emissions from both enteric fermentation and manure management are dependent on livestock populations. Forecasted changes to livestock populations based on post- recession totals show that there will be very little growth in Nevada's population of livestock. Forecasting the emissions from the agricultural soils and agricultural residue burning sub-sectors shows similar results. The data from these forecasts show a relatively insignificant source of CO2 emissions in the state will grow by roughly 12 percent by 2030. This increase equates to less than half of a percent of Nevada's 2030 emissions. The projections show that total GHG emissions from the agricultural sector will increase by about 200,000 metric tons of CO2eq in 2030 (versus 2013 figures). Agricultural sector emissions are not projected to surpass the maximum total emissions that this sector achieved in 2001. Overall, these projections show that this sector will continue to be a minor contributor of GHGs in the state. Figure 8-3 shows the historical and projected emissions from the agricultural sector. The vertical dashed line marks the end of historical emissions and the beginning of the projections. 36#48Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 8-3: Historical and Projected Emissions for the Agricultural Sector, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) 0.4- 0.2 Agricultural Residue Burning Manure Management Ag Soils Enteric Fermentation 0.0 1990 1995 + 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 37#49Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 9. 9.1 Fossil Fuel Industry Sector Emissions Overview This section reports CH 4 emissions from all phases of natural gas and oil systems in Nevada. 35 Natural gas emissions are associated with production, transmission, venting, and distribution; oil emissions are associated with production, refining, and transport. Emissions associated with energy production from fossil fuel combustion and energy consumption by these processes are included in Section 3: Electricity Generation and in Section 5: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial. The methodologies in the SIT were used to estimate GHG emissions. The sources of the dataset used to estimate fossil fuel industry GHG emissions are summarized in Table 9-1. In 2013, the most recent year with a full inventory of emissions, fossil fuels industry emissions accounted for 2 percent of gross emissions in the state. Process Emission factors Table 9-1: Sources Used to Estimate Fossil Fuel Industry GHG Emissions - SIT Source production report published by the State Reference http://minerals.nv.gov/Programs/Oil_and_Gas/Forms _Report/ http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/ Natural gas production Natural gas processing Natural gas transmission Natural gas distribution Oil Production - Nevada Oil Patch, a bi-monthly of Nevada Commission on Mineral Resources - US EIA State Energy Data System - US EIA - U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) -Annual Reports - U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) -Annual Reports - Nevada Oil Patch, a bi-monthly production report published by the State of Nevada Commission on Mineral Resources - US EIA State Energy Data System - US EIA http://www.eia.gov/ http://phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline/library/data-stats http://phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline/library/data-stats http://minerals.nv.gov/Programs/Oil_and_Gas/Forms _Report/ http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/ Oil Refined http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_r50_ a.htm Oil Transported Assumed to be equal to oil refined 9.2 Historical Emissions Natural gas and oil production in Nevada peaked in the early 1990's. Natural Gas production peaked in 1991, the EIA's first year of recorded commercial production, at 53 million cubic feet. Oil production in Nevada peaked in 1990 when the state produced just more than 4 million barrels which was 0.15 percent of 1990 US production (2.68 billion barrels). From 2011 to 2015 production in the industry has been relatively stagnant with natural gas production averaging roughly 9,300 cubic feet per day and oil production averaging roughly 936 barrels per day. Figure 9-1 below shows historical production of natural gas and oil in Nevada. 35 Note that there is no coal production in Nevada; its emissions would otherwise be included in this section. 38#5036 Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 9-1: EIA Historical Energy Production Estimates for Nevada, 1960 - 2015 Oil Natural Gas 36 20 10 10 20 30 30 40 40 Natural Gas (Million Cubic Feet) 50 50 500 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Due to the absence of a coal industry in Nevada and the limited natural gas and oil production that does take place in the state, emissions from production, processing, transmission, and distribution represent a very small fraction of the state's overall GHG emissions. Historically, emissions from the fossil fuel industry have represented less than 2.2 percent of total emissions across all sectors, with the relative contribution of natural gas in the sector increasing from 88.7 percent in 1990 to 99.7 percent in 2015. Table 9-2 shows the fossil fuel industry emissions with natural gas broken down by production, transmission, and distribution. Historical natural gas and oil emissions from 1990 to 2015 are illustrated in Figure 9-2. Sub-Sector Total Natural Gas Production Transmission Distribution Oil Total Emissions Table 9-2: Nevada Fossil Fuel Industry Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.366 0.477 0.586 0.733 0.780 0.845 0.851 0.857 0.858 0.863 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.206 0.260 0.287 0.353 0.332 0.393 0.396 0.401 0.400 0.400 0.158 0.215 0.298 0.379 0.447 0.451 0.454 0.456 0.457 0.462 0.046 0.016 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.412 0.493 0.593 0.739 0.785 0.849 0.855 0.860 0.861 0.866 US EIA State Energy Data System, http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/ (accessed September 23, 2016). 39#51Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 9-2: Nevada Fossil Fuel Industry Emissions, 1990 - 2015 (MMTCO2eq) 0.2 Oil Natural Gas 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Transmission and distribution of natural gas are the major sources of GHG emissions in the sector. This is due largely to the transportation and distribution of natural gas in the state that is not directly related to natural gas produced within the state. Nevada is both a net importer of natural gas (and oil for that matter) and also a "throughway" of natural gas from where it is produced to where it is inevitably used. Figure 9-3 looks at the relative contributions of emissions from the natural gas and oil sub-sectors to highlight just how large a share of the emissions of the fossil fuel industry sector come from the transmission and distribution of natural gas. 40 40#52Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 100% Figure 9-3: Relative Contributions of Fossil Fuel Industry Emissions, 1990 – 2015 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Oil NG Production ■NG Transmission ■NG Distribution 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 9.3 Projected Emissions Projected emissions in this sector were based on the assumption that natural gas and oil emissions would not significantly change in Nevada before 2030. The methods presented in the SIT were applied to estimates of changes in the natural gas and oil sectors in order to project emissions through 2030. Emissions from natural gas production were held constant to their 2015 levels; these emissions have largely gone unchanged over the past 20 years and it is not expected that they will significantly change in the next 15 years. Natural gas transmission emissions were based on forecasting growth in the transmission pipeline mileage in the state. Natural gas distribution emissions estimates were calculated based on forecasting growth in the plastic distribution pipeline and an historical average of the protected steel distribution pipeline. Oil production, refining, and transport emissions estimates were held constant to the most recent 5 year historical average (2011 to 2015). Based on these assumptions, total GHG emissions from the fossil fuel industry will increase by about 75,000 MTCO2eq by 2030. Overall, these projections show that this sector will continue to be a minor contributor of GHGs in the state. Figure 9-4 illustrates the historical and projected emissions from the fossil fuel industry. The vertical dashed line marks the end of historical emissions and the beginning of the projections. 41#53Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 9-4: Historical and Projected Emissions for the Fossil Fuel Industry, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO₂eq) T 0.1- 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 42 Oil ■NG Production ■NG Distribution ■NG Transmission 2025 2030#54Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 10. Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry 10.1 Overview This section includes GHG emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry activities. Temperate forests in the Northern hemisphere are in general CO2 sinks, as their net carbon flux balance (i.e., carbon emissions minus carbon sequestration) is negative, hence actively contributing to offset anthropogenic GHG emissions. The strength of these sinks, per unit of area, depends on many factors, such as forest species composition, climate variability, and the occurrence of perturbations like wildfires and diseases. Other natural ecosystem types (e.g., grasslands, shrublands, wetlands) also contribute to the overall carbon flux balance, but the current scientific consensus is that they are, on average, close to carbon neutral. The main approach adopted to estimate carbon (in the form of CO2) sequestration in forests relies on estimating the magnitude of distinct carbon pools (i.e., the total amount of carbon found in each pool, or stock, such as aboveground biomass, soil, roots, etc.) in the forest ecosystems and their change through time (i.e. the net change of carbon in all pools of a forest, which is equated to carbon flux between the forest ecosystem and the atmosphere, or other compartments of the biosphere). The USDA-Forest Service collects, manages, analyzes and makes available such data through the Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA). 37 In this respect, a positive change in overall carbon stocks per unit of area of a forest indicates net carbon uptake (i.e., CO2) from the atmosphere. However, carbon stocks can change as a result of land use change (i.e., cause an increase or decrease of forested areas), or logging and wildfire events, which both decrease the amount of forest carbon stocks. Land use and land use change only marginally contribute to GHG emissions in Nevada. Nevertheless, wildfires and prescribed fires (wildland fires) can significantly contribute to the annual carbon balance of the forests and other natural ecosystems. It is important to note that the carbon released by fires in forests and other natural ecosystems is not accounted in the GHG inventory. This is because the loss of carbon from forests is already accounted for by either the carbon-pool inventory approach (in forests), or because it balances an equivalent amount of carbon previously sequestered through photosynthesis (in other natural ecosystems). CH4 and N2O are also released during fires and they need to be included in the GHG inventory as emissions. The SIT provides methodologies and emission factors to estimate net GHG emissions from the forestry sector. Historical data on the areas affected by fires in Nevada were obtained from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). 38 10.2 Historical Emissions Forests in Nevada covered approximately 3,100,000 hectares in 200639, equivalent to 11% of Nevada's land. Figure 10-1 shows land cover in Nevada, of note is Nevada's largely undeveloped state (nearly 85 percent of the State is federally owned). 37 http://www.fia.fs.fed.us/ (accessed September 2016). 38 http://www.nifc.gov/ (accessed September 2016). 43#55Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Figure 10-1: Land Cover in Nevada Land Cover Barren Land Cultivated Crops Deciduous Forest Developed, High Intensity Developed, Low Intensity Developed, Medium Intensity Developed, Open Space Emergent Herbaceuous Wetlands. Evergreen Forest: Hay/Pasture Herbaceuous Mixed Forest Open Water Perennial Snow/Ice Shrub/Scrub Woody Wetlands Emissions from wildland fires and CO2 uptake by forests are the two main factors contributing to total sector emissions. Table 10-1 lists sector emissions as well as CO2 uptake and wildfire emissions for select years. Forest uptake was relatively constant across the 1990 to 2013 time period, with estimates ranging between 6 and 9 MMTCO2eq sequestered from the atmosphere every year. Wildfire emissions were extremely variable as they depend entirely on the intensity of the fire season and total acres burned, with emissions ranging from as little as 0.353 MMTCO2eq in 2009 to 16.853 MMTCO2eq emitted in 1999. Figure 10-2 shows the relative contributions of land use, land use change, and forestry sub- sector emissions in two separate charts, one showing GHG emissions and the other showing CO₂ sinks. 39 Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, MRLC, http://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd2006.php (accessed October 2016). 44#56Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 Table 10-1: Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry Sector Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) Sub-Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Forest Carbon Flux -8.820 Wildland Fire Emissions 3.164 CH4 Emissions 2.723 N2O Emissions 0.441 -8.858 -6.682 0.970 6.262 0.835 5.390 0.135 0.872 -6.682 -6.134 10.246 0.274 8.819 0.236 1.428 0.038 2011 2012 2013 -6.134 -6.134 -6.134 4.214 6.071 1.613 3.627 5.225 0.587 1.388 0.846 0.225 Other Sub-Sectors Total Emissions 18 -0.196 -0.185 -0.216 -0.216 -0.261 -0.264 -0.266 -0.268 -5.851 -8.073 -0.635 3.349 -6.121 -2.183 -0.329 -4.788 Figure 10-2: Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry Sector Emissions Sources and Emissions Sinks, 1990 - 2013 (MMTCO2eq) ■N20 from Settlement Soils Emissions (MMTCO2eq) Emissions (MMTCO2eq) 16 14 14 12 10 8 6 4 Wildland Fires Urea Fertilization Liming of Agricultural Soils 2 0+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -2 -4- 6 -8 -10 -12 -14 Landfilled Yard Trimmings and Food Scraps -16 Urban Trees ■Forest Carbon Flux -18 45#57Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 10.3 Projected Emissions Very little is known about the effects of climate variability on a 10 to 20 year time scale and the effects that it has on forest productivity and the ability that forests have to offset anthropogenic GHG emissions. Also, disturbances to forests (e.g., wildfires and disease) are highly unpredictable and can strongly alter forest dynamics and productivity. For these reasons, no reliable or recommended methods are provided by the SIT to estimate sector emissions. Due to this limitation, projections for the sector were estimated by averaging 1990 to 2013 emissions and applying that average to the 2014 to 2030 period. It is estimated that, on average, the land use, land use change, and forestry sector will sequester 3.179 MMTCO2eq per year for the 2014 to 2030 period. 46 46