#1REPUR WRI INDONESIA APIK REGION PAPUA NIVERSITAS PAPUA Scenario for West Papua contribution for NDC from forestry sector Dr. Eng. Hendri, Dr. M. Karuniasa, Dr. Saraswati Prabawardani, Kati Syamsudin, Wednes S. Pradafitri 3rd APIKI INDONESIA NETWORK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2020: Nature-based Solutions for the Implementation if NDC and NAP in Developing Countires, International Webinar, September 30, 2020#2CONTENTS: Megabiodiversity Vs Deforestation and economic growth - LCDI M Dynamic System Modelling - Concept, SFD, Validation BAU, CM1 (29%), CM2 (41%) Scenarios, NDC forestry R sector in West Papua C Mitigation Vs Economic - Green Development RESILIENCE SUSTAINABLE SMART DEVELOPMENT#3237 MALUKU INTRODUCTION: Mega- biodiversity in Sahul Shelf RESILIENCE SUSTAINABLE SMART DEVELOPMENT The islands of Papua and New Guinea are home to the third- largest tropical rainforest in the world with a diversity of bird and plant species. (S) 1,113,445.43 ha (Mnukwar, 2018) PETA TUME IZIN KONSESI PERTAMBANGAN (2009) IUPHHK Hutan Alam ( IUPHHK-HTI (376 200 IUPHHK Perkebunan (552 87 SAKNUMFOR JANDIGAR B are word MONDAN KYAPURA PUNCATURIA P PAPUA P ப The poverty rate in the 2nd national ranking (21.51%) and economic growth up to 4.87% per year (W) To simulate carbon management from the forestry sector in West Papua into long- term low-carbon sustainable development Manokwari Declaration (2018) and Mou with Bappenas (2019) for LCD planning 70% of its territory as a conservation area and to improve the welfare of indigenous peoples (Perdasus), Provincial Development Paradigm. Comitment West Papua to enter NDC (0) KETERANGAN: Ibukota Propins Batas Kabupaten Total Luas Hutan :40.546.360 Ha Hutan Lahan Kering Primer Hutan Lahan Kering Sekunder Konsesi Tambang Mineral & Batubara (2.701.283,30 Ha) Konsesi Tambang Minyak & Gas Daratan (9.271.769,109 Ha) dan Lautan (10.827.439 N E W Social Bearable Equitable Sustainable Environment Economic Viable Deforestation and Degradation Degradation rate of 1.05% per year (primary forest area will reach 6,226,200 ha in 2010 and will continue to be degraded to 5,758,700 ha in 2018) and the secondary forest conversion into shrubs or non-forest areas reached 2.41% per year (T)#4METHODOLOGY: The method used in this research is system dynamics modelling General variables for forest management modelling Value & Parameter Unit Estimation Method No Variable name Total Goss Regional 1 Domestic Product 41,362 (2010) billion Total GRDP data (BPS Papua Barat 2010-2018) RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD GRDP of forestry data (BPS) Papua Barat 2010-2018) Recapitulation of forest and land cover (KLHK 2010-2018) Emission Data x Emission Factor (IPCC, 2006) Estimation (1- Forestry Percentage Emission/ Emission Target) x Validation AME = (Si - Ai)/ Ai x 100% where AME is absolute mean error, A is actual value, and S is the value of simulation (GRDP) GRDP of 2 1,361 (2010) billion forestry sector Deforestation 3 and 58,200 (2010) ha degradation 4 Emission 10,522,475.13 (2010) 26.30 (CM1) and tonCO₂e Forest 5 -18.43 (CM2) Management (2010) Investment Fraction#5RESULT: BAU Data (2010-2018) Primary Forest Non-Forest Forest Total GRDP 2010 2018 ■2010 2018 48% 49% 52% 51% 59% RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD Forestry Emission 41% 2010 2018 2010 2018 72% Secondary Forest 2010 2018 45% 55% Degradation rate, 1.05% per year (50.000 ha/year) ☐ Deforestation rate, 2.41% per year (4,000 ha/year) Secondary forest rate, 2.86% per year (60,000 ha/year) Total GRDP growth rate, 4.87% per year (2.000 billion IDR) Forestry emission rate, 12.40% per year (4,200,000 tCO2e), Gain-Loss method 28%#6RESULT: SFD BAU Capital of non- förestry PB Investment of non- forestry PB о Forestry Emission PB BAU Investment Growth non-forestry PB Deforestation & Degradaation PB BAU Forestry Emission Factor Deforestation & Degradation Growth BAU ICOR hon-forestry PB RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD Capital of forepy PB Investment of forestry PB ICOR/Forestry PB Investment Growth Forestry PB GDRP non-forestry PB-BALI Total GRDP PB BAU GRDP Forestry PB- BAU#7RESULT: SFD NDC 2030 Emission Target form Forestry Forest Use Management Investment Fraction RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD Capital of non- forestry PB-CM11 Invesment of nom forestry PB-CM1 ICOR on-brestry AB-CM1 Capital of forestry PB- CM1 Investment of forestry PB-CM1 ICORForestry PB- CM1 Investment Growth non-foretry PB- copy1 Emission reduction PB-CM1 Forestry Emission 2030-BALI Deforestation & Degradation PB CMI Emisi Kehutanan PB CM1 Forestry Emission Factor-CM1 Deforestation & Degradation Growth BAU-CMI GDRP non-forestry PB-CM1 Total CORP PB CM:1 GRDP Forestry PB- CM1#8RESULT: VALIDATION Years Deforestation & Total GRDP Forestry GRDP Degradation Data Simulation Data Simulation Data Simulation 2010 58,200 145,479 41,362 41,205 1,362 1,120 2011 58,200 161,335 42,867 43,467 1,424 1,242 2012 401,500 178,920 44,423 45,856 1,542 1,377 2013 738,400 198,422 47,694 48,380 1,420 1,527 2014 147,600 220,050 50,260 51,047 1,563 1,694 2015 149,200 244,034 52,346 53,866 1,663 1,878 2016 62,900 270,633 54,711 56,845 1,642 2,083 2017 141,000 300,141 56,907 59,995 1,701 2,310 2018 100 332,845 60.454 63,326 1,972 2,562 Average 195,233 227,948 50,114 51,554 1,588 1,755 S R S R S R AME 0.1678 0.0287 0.1052 This value indicates that the AME value is <0.3, which means that the model is valid RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD#9RESULT: SIMULATION ANALYSIS ton CO 2 e 80,000,000 60,000,000 miliar 8,000 6,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 RESILIENCE DEVELOPME SUSTAINABLE SMARTD 10 11 12 13 14 - Forestry Emission PB BAU -Forestry Emission-CM1 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 - Emission Target form Forestry 2030-CM1 - Emission Target form Forestry 2030-CM2 - Forestry Emission-CM2 4,000 2,000 + + 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 - GRDP Forestry PB-BAU GRDP Forestry PB-CM1 GDRP Forestry PB-CM2 Non-commercial use only! miliar 120,000+ 90,000+ 60,000- 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 -Total GRDP PB BAU - Total GDRP PB-CM1 - Total GDRP PB-CM4 Non-commercial use only!- BAU scenario 2030 is still maintaining of 70% forest cover. ➤ CM1 scenario can save forest up to 71.57% until 2030 from BAU scenario or maintaining forest to 84.64%, decreased forestry GRDP up to 71.57% from BAU and total GRDP up to 5.19%, declined forestry emission of a 0.28 time (71.57%) of BAU. ➤ CM2 scenario can save forest up to 91.04% until 2030 from BAU scenario or maintaining forest to 84.64%, decreased forestry GRDP up to 86.93 % from BAU and total GRDP up to 6.59 %, delined forestry emission of a 0.09 time (90.93%) of BAU#10RESULT: GREEN DEVELOPMENT Policy Policy Economic Economic . • Identifying of company permits located in forest areas Collaborating with Bappenas in implementing the Low Carbon Development Indonesia program at the provincial level • Promoting downstream industry from non-timber forest products such as nutmeg oil, masohi oil, eucalyptus oil, cacao, coffee, and others Developing the economy from environmental services such as the clean water industry and natural tourism RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD#11RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD CONCLUSION: BAU CM 1 & CM 2 SD The forest management model can be used to predict deforestation and degradation quite well as well as predictions of forest cover which still keep 70% forest cover until 2030. Using Simulation model with CM1 (69.61%) and CM2 (91.04%) scenario, the GRDP of forestry sector and emission reached to a 0.28 (-71.57%) and 0.09 time (-90.93%) from the BAU scenario and maintained of 85-87% forest cover in West Papua Province. While, the Total GRDP of CM1 and CM2 has decreased by 5.19% and 6.59%, respectively Developing low carbon development from forestry sector by considering the green economy for forest sustainability#12ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: WRI INDONESIA Thanks to Tracking and Strengthening Climate Action (TASCA) project funded by International Climate Initiative (IKI) RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD#13RESILIENCE DEVELOPM SUSTAINABLE SMARTD REFERENCES: [1] Bappeda Papua Barat, Profil Daerah Papua Barat, Manokwari, (2007). [2] Central Statistics Agency Indonesia, Profil Kemiskinan di Indonesia Januari 2020, Jakarta, (2020). [3] Central Statistics Agency Papua Barat, Papua Barat Dalam Angka, Manokwari, (2019). [4] Dianjaya, A.R., and P. 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[11] UNEP, Forest in a Green Economy: A Synthesis. 100 Watt, St-Martin-Bellevue, France, (2011). [12] West Papua Government, Rencana Aksi Daerah Penurunan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca Provinsi Papua Barat 2013-2020, (2013) [13] Wong, G.Y., C. Luttrell, L. Loft, A. Yang, T.T. Pham, D. Naito, S.A. Mvondo, and M. Brockhaus, Narratives in REDD+ Benefit Sharing: examining evidence within and beyond the forest sector, Journal of Climate Policy 19, 8: 1038 – 1051, (2019). [14] World Wildlife Fund, Bird's Head and Bomberai Peninsulas of Indonesian Papua, ESA, Observing the Earth, (2004). (https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Bird_s_Head_and_Bomberai_Peninsulas_of_In donesian Papua)#14SAVE OUR FOREST & NATURAL RESOURCES Don't leave tears but bring water springs for the next generation