#1South Sudan: A Path to Peace Alex Pearson, Kayla Campion, Jinhee Huh, Shana Zelenka#2LIBYA EGYPT Red Sea SAUDI ARABIA MALI NIGER CHAD ERITREA YEMEN Khartoum SUDAN BENIN NIGERIA TOGO CAR SOUTH SUDAN CAMEROON Gulf of Aden SOMALIA ETHIOPIA ELEMI Juba TRIANGLE EQUATORIAL GUINÉA GABON CONGO DRC UGANDA KENYA http://www.lahistoriaconmapas.com/atlas/country-map13/south-sudan-map-2016.htm UAE OMAN Indian Ocean VOA#3Colonialism Sudan had been going through process of "Arabization” and “Islamization" since the invasion of the country by Arab tribes from Upper Egypt during the Middle Ages Process interrupted by Britain colonizing Sudan in 1890s Settlement of Christian missionaries in South, various religious customs still exist (animists and shari'a law in rural areas) British fill top administrative posts with officials, ignore southern Sudan and focus on educational needs of the north Johnson, Douglas H. The Root Causes of Sudan's Civil Wars. Fountain Publishers, 2003.#4Beginning of First Civil War in Sudan Arab-led government in Khartoum promised to create govt. where both North and South are represented; instead, they appoint northern officials to political positions in the South Southern Sudanese rebel groups forming, such as the Southern Defence Force • Mutiny by Equatorial Corps in southern city of Torit, with southern Sudanese killing northern officers and their families First Civil War begins in 1955 and Britain quick to grant Sudan independence in 1956#5First Civil War Continued... Fighting between North and South intensifies with the rise of the southern rebel group "Anya Nya” in 1960s Largest and most effective military campaign, able to coordinate mass influx of weapons into the country (Cooper 1) Shaped dynamics of the first separatist movement with command structure: the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Finally, in 1972, President Jaafar Nimeiri of Sudan granted "a measure of autonomy for southern Sudan" with Addis Ababa Agreement that ended war#6Addis Ababa Agreement • Signed in 1972 Three key points: Acknowledged that war occurred from "legacy of uneven development between North and South" and expressed desire to reach lasting solution Recognized cultural and historical differences between and declared Southerners “have a right to develop their respective cultures and traditions...and to regional autonomy" Nimeiri proposed to achieve these goals by "extending the amnesty law, developing the South, appointing a minister of Southern Affairs and calling on all Southerners to build a united and democratic Sudan" (Shinn 240) Decade of peace follows, but agreement fails to dispel tensions that originally caused war Shinn, David H. Addis Ababa Agreement: was it destined to fail and are there lessons for the Current Sudan Peace Process? In: Annales d'Ethiope. Volume 20, 2004. pp. 239-259.#7Second Civil War in Sudan 1983-2005 Secret coup о Prime Minister Abdallah Khalil Tension forcing the south to convert to Islamization Implementation of the Sharia Law by the NIF Exacerbated tension over Abyei Dinkas and Misseriya Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) HANZICH, R. (2011). Struggles in South Sudan: Five Months to Resolve 55 Years of Structural Violence. Harvard International Review. https://sofrep.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/south-sudan-war-905x603.jpg#8SPLA Schism Army splits into SPLA and SPLA-Nasir in attempt to overthrow SPLA chairman SPLA-N lead by Riek Machar and Lam Akol Machar eventually becomes vice president Caused the formation of several other rebel groups Resulted in massacre of Bor Dinka tribesmen led by Riek Machar in 1991 Increases ethnic tensions between Dinka and Nuer#9Dinka and Nuer Ethnic Tensions Span back to the 1500's "Derived from a common stock, speak closely related languages, formerly occupied a common ecological zone, share a common transhumant system of economic production, and display other cultural similarities" (Kelly, 1) • Despite commonalities... the Dinka and Nuer have conflicted with each other for over a century. The tension that exists between the Dinka and the Nuer embedded itself into the newly developed country Kelly, Raymond C. The Nuer Conquest. The University of Michigan, 1985. DINKA NUER https://nyamiledotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/nuer-din ka.png?w=560&h=295#10Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Signed in January of 2005 Ended Sudan's Second Civil War Aimed to reinvent and unite Sudan between the North and South "reinvent Sudan as a more inclusive, more equal country" (Thomas, 2). Created a six-year interim period until separation could be an option Intended to allow for the state to rebuild with unity so that come the end of the six-year period, unity would be a more "attractive option" than separation (Thomas, 2) Did not address the underlying concerns of the war and was broadly goal based instead of offering actual plans so in 2011, South Sudan was created https://radiotamazuj.org/sites/default/files/images/Garang%20and%20Taha.jpg Thomas, Edward. South Sudan: A Slow Liberation. Zed Books: London, 2015.#11Current State of Peacelessness South Sudan allowed more peacekeepers Atrocities such as sexual violence, child soldiers, civilian massacres and burning food supplies UN ready to impose arms embargo against South Sudan о Russia has vetoed U.S propose to halt importing weapons, travel restrictions and freeze oversea assets on certain individuals Peacekeepers are not protecting civilians Potential for genocide? "Risk of mass atrocitites"- Ban Ki-Moon CFZM UN NU SENGUPTA, Somini, 2016, "U.S, in Shift, Backs Arms Embargo for South Sudan as Genocide Risk Rises, New York Times Gettleman, Jefferey, 2016, South Sudan to Allow More Peacekeepers, but Force Will be no "Panacea", New York Times http://www.un.org/News/dh/photos/large/2013/December/12-30-2013SouthSudan.jpg#12Direct Violence Sexual and Ethnic violence Throughout the conflict, there have been enormous occurrences of "conflict-related sexual violence" and UN officials have been concerned with systematic ethnically targeted rape." (Blanchard, 7) AFP In July, 2016, fighting erupted in Juba (the Capital) and transcended into Yei, where UN investigations concluded that "more than 100 women and girls are reported to have been raped or gang-raped," with Nuer as targeted victims ("South Sudan"). Overall, sexual assault persists, and despite UN efforts to enforce sanctions in response to the sexual violence, there has been little accountability Blanchard, Lauren Ploch. "Conflict in South Sudan and the Challenges Ahead." Congressional Research Service. 22 September 2016, 1-22. "South Sudan." Security Council Report, 1 September 2016. http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/7 2914000/jpg/_72914157_021021101-1.jpg#13Structural Violence Power Structures The power structures in South Sudan lift the elites and hinder the rest of the state Traditionally, "power has been structured around two major role divisions: chiefs and elders are peacemakers, while the youth, [are typically] organized into warrior age sets” (Deng, 13) Poverty Therefore, the humanitarian crisis continues to affect those who are disadvantaged by the power structures, with the mass amounts of individuals impacted being minorities and everyday families and citizens Half of the population living in poverty - damaged economy due to war 309% inflation rate о Country is spending more on military expenditure Hunger 43% of the total population faces food insecurities Effects of war and poverty Deng, Francis M. Bound by Conflict: Dilemmas of the Two Sudans. Fordham University Press, 2015. "About South Sudan". 2016. UNDP.#14Structural Violence - Health Health situation in critical condition, yet health sector is chronically underfunded and there is a lack of reliable health statistics Maternal mortality rate the highest in the world (2,050 deaths per 100,000 live births) or a 1 in 7 chance of dying during pregnancy or birth Variety of diseases and epidemics: Malaria (44,000 deaths per year) Tuberculosis (affects 228 per 100,000 people 1/4 of children under 5 are stunted due to malnutrition Highest under 5 mortality rate in world, with 135 deaths per 1,000 births Of 17 Neglected Tropical Diseases recognized by WHO, South Sudan has them all (Dracunculiasis from contaminated water) Lack of access to healthcare (1.5 doctors for every 100,000 citizens) https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/121114_Downie_HealthSudan_Web.pdf#15Structural Violence Sexual о The direct sexual violence that is taking place in South Sudan directly correlates to the structural violence of women and children, along with ethnic structural violence The more sexual violence occurs, gender inequality persists, and the opportunity and power of women decreases As long as sexual violence takes place in South Sudan, structural violence will continue to persist against poorer communities of South Sudan, reinforcing unequal institutional power http://www.theearthtribe.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/2015_07_afr_south_sudan_dsc_5478_resize.jpg#16South Sudan Peace Strategy#17Peaceful Settlement (IGOs) Prevent any outbreak of violence and human rights violations Neutral third party mediator Mediate negotiations between ethnic groups Alleviate tensions and ongoing violence о Help build trust between different ethnic groups Different negotiating techniques instead of a compromise Expanding the pie Nonspecific compensation Logrolling Cost-cutting Bridging#18Peacekeepers Currently underway Peacekeeping force of 12,000 Recently accepted more peacekeepers with no conditions • Large peacekeeping force funded by UN Serve as barrier between clashing factions UN http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-sudan-accepts-peacekeepers-conditions-43790852 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/africa/2013/12/20/U-N-says-peacekeeping-base-in-South-Sudan-attacked.html#19Disarmament Disarm South Sudanese civilians and government as well as Sudan Use a buy back based method Funding will come from UN Peacekeepers should be arms collectors Gun deaths in Australia Before 1996 gun law After gun law 800 700 618 600 514 500 400 300 126 242 226 200 100 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2012 DEVELOPING STORY http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/1224/Could-the-US-learn-fr om-Australia-s-gun-control-laws https://thinkprogress.org/australian-group-calls-for-boycott-of-u-s-until-america -fixes-its-gun-laws-af2468f3cf88#.6026ev2yu 8:22 Today U.S. SHOOTING DAR 34° OBAMA WANTS U.S. TO IMPLEMENT SAME LAWS AS UK & AUSTRALIA#20Truth and Reconciliation Commission Parallel The TRC created in South Africa in 1994 The TRC will not only be "given the job of uncovering past wrongdoing,” but its purpose will be to "facilitate national healing" and unify the Dinka and the Nuer along with all citizens of all genders, class, and race (Barash & Webel, 446 & 496). Be developed by South Sudan political elites UN will oversee In order to ensure the proper “restoration of a state of peace to the relationship where the entities are least not harming each other, and can begin to be trusted not to do so in the future" (Santa-Barbara, 176). Barash, David P., and Charles P. Webel. Peace and Conflict Studies. SAGE Publications, 2014. Santa-Barbara, Joanna. "Reconciliation." Handbook of Peace and Conflict Studies. Routledge, 2007, 173-186.#21Humanitarian Aid IGOS will be there to alleviate immediate sufferings Food, clean water, medical aid Internally displaced people Assistance and care to people о Provide help as much as they can Remain neutral "About South Sudan". 2016. UNDP. http://blog.zerohungerchallenge.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/04-03-2014SouthSudan.jpg unicef UR-A#22Human Rights In order to reach peace, human rights have to be at the core of the new democracy and government "Human rights and peace are inextricably connected." (Barash & Webel, 419) Create a charter of human rights Based off of the 1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights Will clearly lay out the human rights laws in the state Integrated Peace Tools Democratization Govt. officials operating in open and transparent fashion that ensures "rule of law" Process which "requires that all the key stakeholders be accounted for in the process leading to an agreement" President Kiir and VP Machar must agree to ceasefire Military action must not become habitual response to disagreement (SPLM/A) Continued equal representation for men and women Barash, David P., and Charles P. Webel. Peace and Conflict Studies. SAGE Publications, 2014. Gendered/Feminist Perspectives In order to ensure a more equal and just government in the effort towards peace, gendered/feminist perspectives need to be prioritized South Sudan Constitution will include a charter for the creation of South Sudan Women Representation Committee (WPC) О representation, incorporation, protection, and recognition (Ellerby) Overseen by the UN Ellerby, Kara. "A Seat at the Table is not Enough: Understanding Women's Substantive Representation in Peace Processes." Peacebuilding, 4, 2, 2016, 136-150.#23Sustainable Development Economic development Industrial conversion: Oil to Water 49,500 million m³/year available renewable water 658 million m³/year water currently used (1%) Water access catalyzes economic development and growth Can sell water to neighbors for revenue Environmental protection Oil production ceases Investment in agriculture provides irrigation Impede desertification in the north Expand infrastructure in an environmentally responsible manner Aquifer Type and Productivity Unconsolidated - Low to High Unconsolidated - Low to Moderate Sedimentary Intergranular Low to High http://earthwise.bgs.ac.uk/images Igneous Volcanic - Very Low to High Basement Low#24Sustainable Development - Health Better health facilities and technology IGOS Improve mortality rates Lower rates of malnutrition Affects pregnant women, increases mortality rates Delivery of medical supplies о Infrastructure Establish rehabilitation centers Victims, especially women and children face post traumatic stress disorders, depression due to sexual violence and other traumatic experiences http://blog.giwps.georgetown.edu/womens-health-in-conflict-in-south-sudan/#25Sustainable Development - Education Only 27 percent of people over the age of 15 are literate, most of them men Realistic United Nations goals for education in South Sudan: O Ensuring all boys and girls complete free, equitable, and quality primary and secondary education O Ensuring all boys and girls have access to early childhood development and care to ready them for primary school Ensuring equal access for all men and women to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university Eliminate gender disparities in education and ensure equal access to all levels of education and vocational training for the vulnerable, including persons with disabilities, indigenous peoples and children in vulnerable situations Ensure that all youth and a substantial portion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy United Nations#26Sustainable Development - Gender Equality Improved literacy rates among women and girls would increase women's participation in government Implementation of appropriate funding in gender-oriented policies The UN pledges to protect women's rights during armed conflicts, prevent impunity for gender-based crimes, mainstream gender aspects in peacekeeping operations and increase women's participation in the various phases before, during, and after armed conflicts http://www.pri.org/region/south-sudan#27Critique Peaceful Settlement • Neutrality factor Could either alleviate or exacerbate tensions Unfruitful negotiations - conflict continues for longer period of time Possibility that negotiations might fail and either sides are satisfied with the outcome Conflict would restart https://paanluelwel2011.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/ceasfire.jpg?w=614 OK, GENTLEMEN, CEASE... ...FIRE!#28Critique TRC Possible ineffective reconciliation between the elites who will heed the TRC • Will not truly recognize their own role in the creation of the conflict, and therefore, not be able to heal and move forward as a united country. Can only be effective if all members who are a part of the TRC are able to realize and recognize their own role in the creation of the conflict The TRC requires thorough participation, and if not conducted properly, the Reconciliation process will be significantly flawed, and therefore, ineffective http://citifmonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ machar-and-kiir-620x330.jpg#29Critique Democratization Relies heavily on the implementation of previous peace tools (ex. Sustainable development, disarmament) Int. orgs must be willing to take on responsibility of helping to restructure South Sudan government Requires culture shift#30Critique Water and Industrial Conversion Transfer from one single industry economy to another Relies on water resource being plentiful Could become tempting to surpass renewable supply Exhausting supply could increase environmental and economic issues Shaky ethical ground selling water to deprived neighbors