Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call

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United

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united

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Industrial

Published

2018

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#1Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call October 17, 2018 A STAR ALLIANCE MEMBER UNITED#2Safe Harbor Statement Certain statements included in this presentation are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and anticipated financial and operating performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as "expects," "will," "plans," "anticipates," "indicates," "believes," "estimates," "forecast," "guidance," "outlook," "goals" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements that do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties, or which indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon information available to us on the date of this presentation. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aircraft fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); economic and political instability and other risks of doing business globally, including political developments that may impact our operations in certain countries; demand for travel and the impact that global economic and political conditions have on customer travel patterns; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the effects of any technology failures or cybersecurity breaches; the impact of regulatory, investigative and legal proceedings and legal compliance risks; disruptions to our regional network; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; costs associated with any modification or termination of our aircraft orders; potential reputational or other impact from adverse events in our operations, the operations of our regional carriers or the operations of our code share partners; our ability to attract and retain customers; our ability to execute our operational plans and revenue-generating initiatives, including optimizing our revenue; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; the impact of any management changes; our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aircraft fuel if we decide to do so; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to any fuel or currency hedging programs; labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of any collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including Open Skies agreements and environmental regulations); industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; weather conditions; our ability to utilize our net operating losses to offset future taxable income; the impact of changes in tax laws; the success of our investments in airlines in other parts of the world; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Part I, Item 1A., "Risk Factors," of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2017, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. UNITED 2#3Opening Remarks Oscar Munoz Chief Executive Officer A STAR ALLIANCE MEMBER UNITED#4Strong year-over-year earnings per share led by 11% total revenue growth $2.15 Earnings Per Share $2.25 3Q17 36% $3.06 $3.06 3Q18 GAAP As adjusted¹ ■ ■ Reported adjusted pre-tax earnings¹ of $1.1B with an adjusted pre-tax margin¹ of 9.7% Served record number of passengers in quarter ▪ Recaptured ~100% of the year-over-year increase in fuel expense in the quarter Reported pre-tax earnings of $1.1B with a pre-tax margin of 9.6% ■ 1 Excludes special charges, the mark-to-market impact of equity investments and imputed interest on certain capitalized leases. For a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation, see UNITED Appendix A 4#5Raised full-year 2018 adjusted EPS guidance a third time in 2018 to $8.00-$8.75 Currently expect to recover approximately 90% of the year-over-year increase in fuel costs in 2018 Incremental full-year 2018 fuel headwind versus January guidance currently expected to be $700M Commercial initiatives and asset utilization expected to contribute to improved results Plan to continue to grow at a pace that maximizes profitability ■ $6.50 - $8.50 January Guidance Target adjusted earnings per share, diluted $7.00 - $8.50 April Guidance 2018E 12% $7.25 $8.75 July Guidance 2018E $8.00-$8.75 2018E1 $11.00 $13.00 2020E² 2018E 1 Excludes special charges and the mark-to-market impact of equity investments, the nature of which are not determinable at this time, and imputed interest on certain capitalized leases. Accordingly, UAL is not providing earnings guidance on a GAAP basis. 2 Excludes special charges and the mark-to-market impact of equity investments, the nature of which are not determinable at this time. Accordingly, UAL is not providing earnings guidance on a GAAP basis. UNITED 5#6Operations and Revenue Update Scott Kirby President A STAR ALLIANCE MEMBER UNITED#7Best in class operations and improved customer service drove record 3Q passengers flown and revenue 69.6% UA YTD 181 D:00² 69.1% DL 64.9% AA ¹Year-to-date through September 30, 2018 2 Consolidated system flights Source: masFlight 49.3% WN 3Q18 Passengers Flown (millions) 38.7 2016 39.3 2017 9% 42.9 2018 3Q18 Total Revenue (billions) $9.9 2016 $9.9 2017 11% $11.0 2018 UNITED 7#8Our growth plan is working Domestic PRASM +6.7% Healthy close-in yields and leisure demand International PRASM +4.5% Strong premium cabin performance 1 Includes DEN, IAH and ORD flying 2.3% 3Q18 System Metrics Year-over-year H/(L) 5.6% Rest of System Capacity 9.7% 6.8% Mid-Continent Hubs ¹ PRASM UNITED 8

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