#1Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 404 American Jewish Population Project Toca Logat 265-697-H PENNSYLVANIA REPORT An Analysis of the Jewish Electorate for the Jewish Electorate Institute by the American Jewish Population Project At the request of the non-partisan Jewish Electorate Institute, researchers at the American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University's Steinhardt Social Research Institute conducted an analysis of hundreds of national surveys of US adults to describe the Jewish electorate in each of the 435 districts of the 116th US Congress and the District of Columbia. Surveys include the American National Election Studies, the General Social Survey, Pew Political and social surveys, the Gallup Daily Tracking poll, and the Gallup Poll Social Series. Data from over 1.4 million US adults were statistically combined to provide, for each district, estimates of the number of adults who self-identify as Jewish and a breakdown of those individuals by age, education, race/ethnicity, political party self-identification and political ideology. The percentages of political identity are not sensitive to quick changes in attitudes that can result from current events and they are not necessarily indicative of voting behaviors. The following report presents a portrait of the Jewish electorate in Pennsylvania and its 18 congressional districts.¹ Daniel Kallista Daniel Parmer Elizabeth Tighe Daniel Nussbaum Raquel Magidin de Kramer Xajavion Seabrum Leonard Saxe February 2021 ajpp.brandeis.edu#2American Jewish Population Project Pennsylvania is home to ~299,000 Jewish adults, comprising about 3% of the state's electorate.2 Worth 20 electoral votes, the state was won narrowly by Donald Trump (+0.7%) in 2016 and by President Biden (+1.2%) in 2020. OVERVIEW: THE PENNSYLVANIA JEWISH ELECTORATE The majority (~78%) of Jewish adults in Pennsylvania resides in eight congressional districts. All, with the exception of PA-18, are located in an Eastern region of the state known as the Delaware Valley. Erie About two thirds (67%) of Pennsylvania's Jewish electorate identifies with or leans toward the Democratic Party compared with 65% of the Jewish electorate nationally.3 0 to <5K 5K to <10K JEWISH ADULTS 67% 26% Democrat & Lean Democrat Independent (4%) Republican & Lean Republican Total does not sum to 100% due to omitted "Other" category. Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 10K to <20K >20K Pittsburgh Allentown Philadelphia 1#3American Jewish Population Project STATE-LEVEL DEMOGRAPHICS Adults with a College Degree 29% Pennsylvania adults % 55 Pennsylvania Jewish adults 57% US Jewish adults A little over half of the Pennsylvania Jewish electorate are college educated. Compared to the general adult population of the state, the Pennsylvania Jewish electorate is more likely to be college educated (55% vs. 29%); however, Jewish adults in Pennsylvania are less likely to have a college degree compared to Jewish adults nationally (57%). Age 11% 11% 17% 16% 15% 13% 12% 18% 18% 16% 29% 24% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE The Jewish electorate is older than all adults in Pennsylvania, with a greater proportion of adults ages 65+ (29% vs. 24%, respectively). Jewish Adults PA Adults 2#4American Jewish Population Project STATE-LEVEL POLITICS Jewish adults in Pennsylvania are more likely than all Pennsylvania adults to identify as Democrat (67% vs. 49%, respectively) when asked if they identify with a political party. They are less likely to identify as Republican (26%) and as Independent (4%) than all Pennsylvania adults (44% and 7%, respectively). When asked about political ideology, Jewish adults in Pennsylvania are far more likely to identify as liberal (44%) than all adults in the state (26%). Jewish adults are also far less likely to identify as conservative (19%) than all adults (37%). Both groups, Jewish adults and the general Pennsylvania population, identify as moderate in approximately equal proportions (37% and 38%, respectively). Partisan Identification, Jewish Adults vs. PA Adults Democrat Lean Democrat Political Orientation, Jewish Adults vs. PA Adults Liberal 55% 12% Jewish Adults 44% 37% 12% PA Adults Jewish Adults 26% PA Adults Independent (No Lean) 4% 7% Republican / Lean Republican 17% 9% 31% 13% Age of Independents Within Pennsylvania's Jewish electorate, those in younger age groups are more likely to identify as Independent, while those in older age groups are more likely to identify with either the Democratic or Republican Party. Jewish adults ages 18-24 are over 50% more likely to identify as Independent than Jewish adults ages 65 or older (34% vs. 20%, respectively). Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE Moderate 37% 38% Conservative 19% 37% % Independent among Pennsylvania Jewish Adults, by Age Group 18-24 34% 25-34 30% 35-44 28% 45-54 25% 55-64 23% 65+ 20% 3#5American Jewish Population Project CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS Congressional Jewish Pct. Jewish Representative Districts Adults * Erie PA-4 9.9 54,000 Madeleine Dean (D) PA-I 6.9 40,000 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) PA-16 PA-3 6.7 39,000 Dwight Evans (D) PA-15 PA-2 6.2 34,000 Brendan Boyle (D) PA-5 5.1 27,000 Mary Gay Scanlon (D) PA-17 Pittsburgh PA-18 PA-13 PA-18 3.2 16,000 Mike Doyle (D) PA-6 2.0 11,000 PA-7 1.9 11,000 Chrissy Houlahan (D) Susan Wild (D) 0 to <5K 5K to <10K 10K to <20K > 20K PA-14 * Estimates are based on a synthesis of sample surveys and may have a margin of error between +/- 1,000 to 5,000, depending on the estimate. PA-12 PA-8 Allentown PA-9 PA-7 PA-4 PA-1 Philadelphia PA-10 PA-6 PA-2 PA-11 PA-3 PA-5 PA-0 Republican representative PA-0 Democratic representative Eight of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts account for about 78% of the state's Jewish electorate. Each of the eight districts has an adult Jewish population greater than 10,000, and all except PA-18, which includes Pittsburgh and its surrounding areas, are located in the eastern region of the state known as the Delaware Valley. Pennsylvania's 2nd, 3rd, and 5th districts span portions of Philadelphia. Of the state's top eight congressional districts by Jewish adults, only PA-1 is represented by a Republican. The top four districts alone-PA-4, PA-1, PA-3, and PA-2-account for over half of the Pennsylvanian Jewish electorate. The majority of Jewish adults in these districts identify with or lean Democratic, ranging from 61% in PA-1 to 83% in PA-3. They are also predominantly liberal in political ideology, ranging from 41% in PA-2 to 58% in PA-3. PA-4 54,000 Jewish Adults PA-1 40,000 Jewish Adults 4% 34% Independent/ Republican & No Lean Lean Republican PA-3 39,000 Jewish Adults 83% Democrat & Lean Democrat 4% 9% Independent/ Republican & No Lean Lean Republican PA-2 34,000 Jewish Adults 70% Democrat & Lean Democrat <1% Independent/ No Lean 28% Republican & Lean Republican 69% 3% Democrat & Independent/ Lean Democrat No Lean Lean Republican 26% Republican & 61% Democrat & Lean Democrat 42% Liberal 38% 20% Moderate Conservative 45% Liberal 37% 18% Moderate Conservative 58% Liberal 29% 13% Moderate Conservative 41% Liberal 40% 20% Moderate Conservative Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 4#6American Jewish Population Project Competitive Districts Twelve of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts were considered safe for their incumbent representatives ahead of the 2020 House elections. Of these twelve, half are represented by Democrats and half by Republicans. The six remaining districts were rated as follows: PA-7 and PA-17 were considered likely to remain Democratic, PA-16 to likely remain Republican, PA-8 leaned Democratic, PA-1 leaned Republican, and PA-10 was considered a toss-up race for Republican Scott Perry.4 Ahead of the presidential election, six of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts were rated as competitive. Of these, just three-PA-1, PA-6, and PA-7-have significant Jewish populations.4 Incumbent representatives won reelection in all 18 of Pennsylvania's congressional Districts. Although just one of the three competitive districts in the presidential election went for Joe Biden, he carried the state by 2% of the vote. His win in Pennsylvania, combined with that in Georgia, ultimately clinched him the presidency. Pennsylvania 2020 House Races Six of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts were considered competitive House races in 2020. PA Districts Six of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts were considered reliable for Republicans ahead of the 2020 House races. None have a significant Jewish population. 6 Solid R Going into the 2020 House elections, Representative Mike Kelly (R) was considered likely to hold on to his seat in district PA-16, which does not have a significant Jewish population. Competitive District PA-1 leaned Republican going into the 2020 House races and is represented by Brian Fitzpatrick (R). His district is home to the second-largest Jewish adult population in the state, accounting for -13% of the state's Jewish electorate. 1 2 1 1 6 Solid D Six of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts were considered solid for Democrats going into the 2020 House races. All have significant Jewish populations, ranging from ~11,000 adults in PA-6 to ~54,000 in PA-9. Altogether, they account for about three-fifths of the state's Jewish electorate. Going into the 2020 House elections, Representative Conor Lamb (D) was considered likely to hold on to his seat in district PA-17, which does not have a significant Jewish population. Susan Wild, who represents PA-7, was also considered likely to keep her seat. Her district is home to -11,000 Jewish adults, accounting for just under 4% of the state's Jewish electorate. PA-10 was rated as a Republican toss-up district ahead of the 2020 House races. Represented by Scott Perry (R), it does not have a significant Jewish population. Ahead of the 2020 House races, competitive district PA-8 leaned Democratic. Represented by Matt Carwright (D), it does not have a significant Jewish population. Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 5#7American Jewish Population Project PA-4 District Profile PA-4 is home to the largest Jewish population in the state and is represented by Madeleine Dean (D). The incumbent was expected to retain her seat ahead of the 2020 House election and the district was considered likely to go for Joe Biden in the presidential election. As anticipated, both races were called for the Democratic Candidates. PA-4 spans the majority of Montgomery County and is home to ~54,000 Jewish adults, accounting for ~10% of the state's overall electorate. The vast majority (~96%) of Jewish adults in PA-4 reside in 34 ZIP Codes in the eastern half of the district, encompassing the communities of Willow Grove, Glenside, Ambler, Blue Bell, Norristown, King of Prussia, Collegeville, and Harleysville among others. Election Results: PA-4 2016 Presidential 2018 Congressional 57.9% 63.5% 38.5% 36.5% R D R D 2020 Presidential 2020 Congressional 62.1% 59.5% 36.8% 40.5% R D R D The majority of the PA-4 Jewish electorate identifies with or leans toward the Democratic Party (69%), and a plurality identifies as liberal (44%). 19505 18041 18073 16503 18076 18054 -96% of Jewish adults in this district reside in 34 Eastern ZIP Codes* just outside of Philadelphia. 19472 10074 TR545 19435 19525 10464 10402 19438 10473 19426 10468 10403 19401 10422 19482 19405 19428 1900219044 Philadelphia * Eastern ZIP Codes: 19001, 19002, 19006, 19009, 19012, 19025, 19027, 19031, 19034, 19038, 19040, 19044, 19046, 19075, 19090, 19095, 19422, 19436, 19437, 19444, 19477, 19004, 19035, 19066, 19072, 19401, 19403, 19405, 19406, 19426, 19428, 19438, 19456, 19462. 10% of the voting-age population is Jewish Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative 44% 40% 16% 54,000 Jewish Adults Partisan Identification 96% of the Jewish electorate lives in 34 ZIP Codes in the East Age 23% 18-34 56% 13% 9% 17% 26% 35-64 69% Democrat & Lean Democrat 3% Independent/ No lean 26% Republican & Lean Republican+ 51% 65+ Brandeis † Interpret data with caution. The coefficient of variation (CV) for the "lean" political estimate is greater than 30%. STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 6#8American Jewish Population Project PA-1 District Profile PA-1 has the second-largest Jewish population in the state and is represented by Republican Brian Fitzpatrick. Ahead of the 2020 House races, the district leaned Republican and was expected to be competitive in the presidential race as well. Although Fitzpatrick won his race by a significant margin (+13.2%), the district went for the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden. Spanning the entirety of Bucks County, as well as a portion of Montgomery County, PA-1 is home to ~40,000 Jewish adults, accounting for 7% of the district's voting-age adults. A little over two thirds of the Jewish electorate resides in 15 Eastern ZIP Codes, encompassing the communities of Levittown, Fairless Hills, and Richboro among others. Election Results: PA-1 2016 Presidential 2018 Congressional 47.1% 49.1% 51.3% 48.7% D R D 2020 Congressional R 2020 Presidential 52.2% 46.4% 56.6% 43.4% R D R D The majority (61%) of Jewish adults in this district identifies with or leans toward the Democratic Party. When asked about their political views, Jewish adults in PA-1 identify as liberal and moderate in approximately equal proportions (40% and 38%, respectively). 6.9% of the voting-age population is Jewish 1840 18054 7004) 10067 -68% of Jewish adults in this district reside in 15 Eastern ZIP Codes* just outside of Philadelphia. * Eastern ZIP Codes: 18940, 18954, 18966, 18974, 19007, 19020, 19021, 19030, 19047, 19053, 19054, 19055, 19056, 19057, 19067. 40,000 Jewish Adults 68% of the Jewish electorate lives in 15 eastern ZIP Codes Partisan Identification Age Political Ideology Liberal Moderate 23% 18-34 49% Conservative 12% 13% 21% 26% 35-64 40% 38% 22% 61% Democrat & Lean Democrat 4% Independent/ No lean Lean Republican 34% Republican & 51% 65+ Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 7#9American Jewish Population Project PA-7 District Profile The 7th district has the eighth-largest Jewish population in the state and is represented by Susan Wild (D). Although the district was considered a toss-up for the presidential race, Wild was considered likely to keep her seat following the 2020 House elections. In the end, both Democrats won in PA-7, each by a little over 4% of the vote. PA-7 spans the entirety of Lehigh and Northampton Counties, as well as part of Monroe County. The district is home to -11,000 Jewish adults, accounting for 2% of the district's voting-age adults. A little over two thirds of the PA-7 Jewish electorate resides in 23 ZIP Codes in the southeastern portion of the district, encompassing the communities of Allentown, Bethlehem, Emmaus, Coopersburg, and Easton among others. About two thirds of Jewish adults in the 7th district identifies with or leans toward the Democratic Party (62%). When asked about their political views, the proportion of Jewish adults who identify as liberal and moderate is roughly equivalent (40% and 38%, respectively). Election Results: PA-7 2016 Presidential 2018 Congressional 47.6% 48.7% 53.5% 43.5% R D 2020 Presidential R D 2020 Congressional 51.5% 47.2% 47.9% 52.1% R D R D 8354 18353 18360 18350 18013 18072 18091 18040 18038) 18064 0085 18014 18045 18343 ~67% of Jewish adults in this district reside in 23 Southeastern ZIP Codes.* 18088 18035 18086 18079 18050 18067 18020 18080 18042 18017 18053 ROSY 18078 18052 18016 1810918018 18066 10102 1801518055 1806018104 Allentown 18103 18051 18195 10 1808718046 18031 1806218049 18068 18092 * Southeastern ZIP Codes: 18015, 18016,18017, 18018, 18020, 18032, 18034, 18036, 18037, 18042, 18045, 18049, 18052, 18055, 18062, 18068, 18092, 18101, 18102, 18103, 18104, 18105, 18109. 18011 1.9% of the voting-age population is Jewish Political Ideology 11,000 Jewish Adults 67% of the Jewish electorate lives in 15 southeastern ZIP Codes Partisan Identification Age Liberal Moderate Conservative 26% 18-34 52% 10% 17% 19% 24% 40% 38% 22% 35-64 62% Democrat & Lean Democrat 36% Republican & Lean Republican+ 50% 65+ † Interpret data with caution. The coefficient of variation (CV) for the "lean" political estimates is greater than 30%. Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 8#10NOTES American Jewish Population Project 1 Methodology: Individual-level data from all surveys were combined using Bayesian multilevel modeling with poststratification. Poststratification included geographic distributions of respondents by ZIP Codes within congressional districts, and demographic characteristics of age, educational attainment, race/ethnicity, population density, as well as interactions of age by educational attainment, population density by age, and population density by educational attainment. Modeling is based to Jewish adults who self-identify as Jewish when asked about their religion. Estimates of "Total Jewish Adults" are obtained by adding to the model-based estimate, independent estimates of the percentage of Jewish adults who do not identify religiously as Jewish. This percentage can range from a low of 10% to a high of 30% depending on the region. 2 State-level Jewish adult totals are estimated from AJPP 2020 models and adjustments for Jewish adults who do not identify religiously as Jewish. 3 Partisan lean of Independents was estimated using a design-based pooled analysis method in which each survey's original survey weights were adjusted for survey specific designs and sample sizes. This method is not as sensitive to estimation of rare populations as the Bayesian methods used for the main Jewish population estimates but provides an initial ballpark estimate of the groups of interest. Follow-up studies will compare these estimates to those derived from more fully developed Bayesian model-based estimates. 4 Congressional district competitive scores from Cook Political Report House Race Ratings (Nov 2, 2020) and FiveThirtyEight's Partisan Lean (Oct 19, 2020); data accessed January 2021. Brandeis STEINHARDT SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE 6