Economic and Fiscal Update

Made public by

Centre Hospitalier Universitaire d'Owendo

sourced by PitchSend

26 of 32

Creator

Centre Hospitalier Universitaire d'Owendo

Category

Government

Published

2014

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Gabon Rising: Realizing the Nation's Potential JUSTICE CENTRE HOSPITALIER UNIVERSITAIRE D'OWENDO Investor Presentation June 2015 | Strictly Private and Confidential#2Disclaimer Disclaimer IMPORTANT: You must read the following before continuing. The following applies to this document, the oral presentation of the information in this document by the Gabonese Republic (the "Republic") or any person on behalf of the Republic, and any question-and-answer session that follows the oral presentation (collectively, the "Information"). In accessing the Information, you agree to be bound by the following terms and conditions. This presentation has been prepared by the Republic and the Managers (as defined below) and has not been independently verified. This document is an advertisement and does not constitute a prospectus for the purposes of the Prospectus Directive (as defined below). The Information does not constitute or form part or all of, and should not be construed as, any offer of, or any invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, or a recommendation regarding, any securities of the Republic, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or any commitment whatsoever or any investment decision. The Information is confidential and is being provided to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, retransmitted or further distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This presentation contains data compilations, writings and information that are proprietary and protected under copyright and other intellectual laws and may not be redistributed or otherwise transmitted by you to any other person for any purposes. The Information is only being distributed to and is only directed at (A) persons in member states of the European Economic Area (other than the United Kingdom) who are "qualified investors" within the meaning of Article 2(1)(e) of Directive 2003/71/EC (as amended and together with any applicable implementing measures in that member state, the "Prospectus Directive") ("Qualified Investors"); (B) in the United Kingdom, Qualified Investors who are investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Order") and/or high net worth companies, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order; and (C) such other persons as to whom the Information may be lawfully distributed and directed under applicable laws (all such persons in (A) to (C) above together being referred to as "relevant persons"). Securities issued by the Republic are only available to, and any invitation, offer or agreement to purchase securities will be engaged in only with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on the Information. The Information has not been independently verified and no responsibility is accepted, and no representation, undertaking or warranty is made or given, in either case, expressly or impliedly, by the Issuer or any of its officers or advisers as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Information or as to the reasonableness of any assumptions on which any of the same is based or the use of any of the same. Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan, Standard Chartered Bank and any other manager (the "Managers") acting in connection with the offering of the securities are acting exclusively for the Republic and no one else, and will not be responsible for providing advice in connection with the Information to any other party. Subject to applicable law, none of the Managers accepts any responsibility whatsoever and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, for the contents of the Information, including its accuracy, completeness or verification or for any other statement made or purported to be made in connection with the Republic and nothing in this document or at this presentation shall be relied upon as a promise or representation in this respect, whether as to the past or the future. The Issuers, its officers and the Managers accordingly disclaim all and any liability whatsoever, whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred above) which any of them might otherwise have in respect of the Information or any such statement. The statements contained in this presentation are made as at the date of this presentation, unless another time is specified in relation to them, and delivery of this presentation shall not give rise to any implication that there has been no change in the facts set forth in this document since that date. Save as otherwise expressly agreed, none of the above persons shall be treated as being under any obligation to update or correct any inaccuracy contained herein or otherwise liable to you or any other person in respect of any such information. No reliance whatsoever may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Nothing contained in this presentation shall be deemed to be a forecast, projection or estimate of the Issuer's future economic performance. This presentation is not intended for distribution or publication in the United States. Neither this document nor any part or copy of it may be distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons in to whose possession this presentation comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. By reviewing this presentation, you represent and agree that (i) you are located outside the United States and you are permitted under the laws of your jurisdiction to receive this presentation or (ii) you are located in the United States and are a "qualified institutional buyer" (as defined in Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"). This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy the securities of the Republic in the United States. The Republic's securities have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act. This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms "believes", "estimates", "projects", "expects", "intends", "may", "will", "seeks" or "should" or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy, plans, objectives, goals, future events or intentions. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and include statements about the Republic's beliefs and expectations. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections and, therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on them. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Although the Republic believes that the beliefs and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such beliefs and expectations will be realised. The information and opinions contained in this presentation or in oral statements of the representatives of the Republic are provided as at the date of this presentation or as at the other date if indicated and are subject to change without notice. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or oral statements of the representatives of the Republic or on assumptions made as to its completeness. By accepting these materials, you will be deemed to acknowledge and agree matters set forth above. THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT DISCLOSE ALL THE RISKS AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUES RELATED TO AN INVESTMENT IN THE SECURITIES/THE TRANSACTION. PRIOR TO TRANSACTING, POTENTIAL INVESTORS SHOULD ENSURE THAT THEY FULLY UNDERSTAND THE TERMS OF THE SECURITIES/TRANSACTION AND ANY APPLICABLE RISKS. 2#3Representatives of the Gabonese Republic Régis Immongault Minister of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective Thierry Minko Head of the Debt Management Office Francis Lendjoungou Advisor, Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective Guy Nazair Samba Advisor, Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 3#4Presentation Outline I. Satisfactory Macroeconomic & Fiscal Situation Despite Oil Price Shock 5 II. Gabon Has Taken Fiscal Measures to Adapt to a Lower Oil Price Environment 13 III. The Current Context Represents an Opportunity for Gabon to Implement Long-Lasting Structural Reforms 18 IV. Gabon is Accelerating the Implementation Pace of its Emerging Gabon 2025 Strategic Plan 22 V. Concluding Remarks 27 4#5JUSTICE CENTRE HOSPITALIER UNIVERSITAIRE D'OWENDO I. Satisfactory Macroeconomic & Fiscal Situation Despite Oil Price Shock#6Solid Economic Growth Despite Exogenous Shocks Gabon has outperformed regional peers despite exogenous shocks. Growth is projected at 4.8% in 2015 in the Revised Budget Law 2015 Continued Positive Real GDP Growth (% p.a.) 7.1% 5.0% 4.4% 2011 Low Inflation (yearly average, %) Gabon Ghana - Gabon Sub-saharan Africa 5.6% 5.6% 5.3% 5.2% 4.2% 2012 2013e -2.6% CEMAC 5.0% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.5% 2.8% 2014e GNI per capita, Atlas method (2013, current US$) Nigeria South Africa -CEMAC 14,320 15.5% 10,650 12.2% 11.7% 10.8% 7.7% 8.5% 8.1% 7.1% 4.6% 5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 2.3% 4.7% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 5,170 2,710 1,810 1,770 1,160 1,050 Equatorial Gabon Angola Nigeria Zambia Ghana Kenya Senegal Guinea Sources: World Bank databank 2013 figures Sources: IMF's WEO database April 2015 except Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective for Gabon. Please note there may be slight differences in methodologies used 6#7Growth is Now Mainly Driven by the Non-Oil Sector The Emerging Gabon Strategic Plan has been a strong driver of diversification for the economy. The share of the non-oil GDP in total nominal GDP increased from 67% in 2011 to 74% in 2014. Overall growth remained high in 2014 despite the negative growth of the oil sector Oil GDP and Non-Oil GDP (% of nominal GDP) ■ Oil GDP ■Non-Oil GDP 50% 33% Y-o-Y Real GDP Growth by Sector (2014e) Primary Sector 1.7% Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing 7.0% 26% Forestry 21.5% Oil (0.3%) Mining (6.8%) 67% 74% 50% 2006 2011 Nominal GDP Contribution by Sector (2014e) Forestry, 0.7% Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing, 2.9% Import Taxes and VAT, 8.3% Non-Commercial Services, 14.4% Oil, 26.2% 2014e Mining, 2.5% Agribusinesses, 1.6% Wood Industries, 1.3% Construction and Public Works, 5.6% Other Tertiary Sector, 14.8% Other Secondary Sector, 15.5% Services, 6.2% Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective (1.1%) (3.7%) Secondary Sector Agribusinesses Wood Industries Other Industries Refining Electricity, Water Construction and Public Works (10.8%) Research, Oil Services Tertiary Sector 1.8% 14.5% 28.6% 12.8% 5.8% 6.3% Transport and Telecoms 8.3% Services 4.7% Commerce 3.4% Banking Services 8.6% Import Taxes and VAT 5.7% Non-Commercial Services 5.8% Total Growth 4.3% 7#8The New Environment Will Enhance Future Production The decline in production in maturing fields is being compensated by the introduction of new extraction techniques, new explorations and an improved regulatory framework The Oil Sector Today and the New Oil Code Gabon's proven reserves are estimated at 3.6 billion barrels The Government's strategy is to encourage investment in exploration as well as in production enhancement in mature fields, in order to curb the decline in oil production In June 2011, Gabon Oil Company, a state-owned company, was created to increase the Government's involvement in oil production In 2014 Gabon adopted a new oil code with the objective of levelling the playing field among operators, fostering transparency and attracting new operators with a favorable tax regime Investment in exploration by oil companies has increased four times in 2014 compared to 2013 15 blocks in 2013 and 9 blocks in 2014 were awarded in the deep and ultra-deep waters to revive the sector Investment in Oil Exploration (USD million) Oil Production (million of barrels) 90.85 88.65 Oil Companies in Gabon (% of 2014 total oil production) Total oil production in 2014: 80.16 million barrels 1,169.55 86.59 Vaalco Gabon Marathon 7% CNRI 1% 84.87 7% Total Gabon Addax 26% 544.77 378.35 387.14 390.26 329.56 80.40 8% 80.16 Maurel & Prom 12% Shell Gabon 20% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Perenco 19% Sources: Ministry of Oil and Hydrocarbons 8#9Prudent Public Finances Management Despite a significant increase in public investments since 2010, the Authorities have always maintained Gabon's public finances in surplus or close to balance Expenditures vs. Revenues (CFA billion) and Fiscal Surplus/ Deficit (% of GDP) 2,486 2,275 1.60% 2011 Subsidies (CFA billion) Total Revenues and Grants Total Expenditures 2,638 2,622 2,333 2,316 1.80% 2.40% 2012 2013e Fiscal Balance (RHS) 2,349 2,009 1,981 2.70% 1,834 2014e Revenues Breakdown (% of total revenues) ■ Oil Revenues -2.90% 2015* ■Non-Oil Revenues 498 476 440 410 45% 42% 49% 56% 71% 303 2011 2012 2013e -39% 2014e 2015* Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 55% 58% 51% 44% 29% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * 2015 Revised Budget Law 9#10Gabon's Strong External Position Is A Protection Against External Shocks Despite the drop in oil export revenues, Gabon has maintained a current account surplus due to the country's export profile Imports and Exports Profile (CFA billion) Current Account and Capital Balances (% of nominal GDP) ■Imports Exports 4,903 ■Current Account Balance 33.6% 4,605 4,672 30.4% 4,190 1,679 1,860 1,924 1,826 2011 2012 2013e Capital Balance 13.0% 7.7% (4.0%) (6.6%) (11.5%) 2014e 2011e 2012e 2013e Sources: BEAC Sources: Rapport du commerce extérieur et résultats de la fiscalité douanière 2014 Exports by Continent (% of total exports) 1% 3% 9% 13% 58% 16% 4% 1% 11% 18% 21% 45% 2011 2014 ■ Americas ■ Asia Europe ■ Africa ■CEMAC ■ Oceania Foreign Reserves (CFA billion and in Months of Imports) CFA billion Months of Imports (RHS) 1,104 2011e 1,436 (3.8%) 2014e 1,347 1,180 5.3 4.7 4.4 2012e Sources: Rapport du commerce extérieur et résultats de la fiscalité douanière 2014 *The 2013 increase is due to the bond issue Sources: BEAC 2013e* 2014e 10#11A Prudent Approach to Debt Management (1/2) Gabon is committed to prudent debt management with the objective of maintaining a 35% debt-to-GDP threshold privileging long-term fixed-rate borrowings Although debt-to-GDP increased from 18.7% in 2010 to an expected level of 38.2% in 2015 due to an exceptional decline in nominal GDP, the government is determined to stabilize this ratio below the 35% threshold in the coming years Debt levels remain well below the CEMAC's recommended threshold of 70% Gabon's debt level compares very favorably to comparable peers Outstanding Debt/ GDP (% of nominal GDP) Debt Service (CFA billions and % of nominal GDP) Gabon threshold: 35% 18.70% 16.9% 16.9% 29.3% 26.3% 38.2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* * The 2015 increase is due to an exceptional decline in nominal GDP 2014 Outstanding Government Debt (% nominal GDP) External Debt Service Internal Debt Service % of GDP 7.6% Nigeria Gabon 10.5% 29.3% Zambia 31.1% 43.0 Côte d'Ivoire 36.4% 4.3% 3.9% Angola 38.0% 3.1% 107.0 South Africa 45.9% 79.5 615 56.0 259 279 Kenya Senegal 48.6% 50.7% 209 Mozambique 55.4% 2011 2012 2013* 2014 Ghana 67.6% * The 2013 increase is due to the bond issue and related Liability Management exercise One of the lowest level of indebtedness compared to selected sub-Saharan Africa peers Sources: IMF's WEO database April 2015, except Debt Management Office for Gabon. Please note there may be slight differences in methodologies used 11#12A Prudent Approach to Debt Management (2/2) The currency mix is balanced between USD and EUR/CFA. The debt mix reflects a higher but manageable share of international capital markets debt. Currency Breakdown (% of 2014 outstanding public debt) 3% Yearly Interest Rate (%) and Maturity in Years 10% 6% 48% 33% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Maturity Interest Maturity in Years Rate in % in Years Interest Rate in % Maturity in Years Interest Rate in % Maturity in Years Interest Rate in % Total Debt 7.88 4.48% 3.95 7.74% 9.02 3.79% 8.68 3.74% External Debt 8.11 4.62% 7.96 4.09% 9.87 3.91% 9.2 3.83% Internal Debt 2.32 1.16% 2.32 1.16% 1.95 2.8% 1.71 2.69% ■ USD EUR ■CNY ■CFA Others External Debt 2008 vs. 2014 (% external debt) 2008 International Capital Markets 43% O Commercial Debt 16% Paris Club Debt 16% Other Bilateral Debt Multilateral Debt 15% 10% Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 2014 International Capital Markets 38% Paris Club Debt 2% Other Bilateral Debt 22% Commercial Debt Multilateral 24% Debt 14% 12#13JUSTICE CENTRE HOSPITALIER UNIVERSITAIRE D'OWENDO II. Gabon Has Taken Fiscal Measures to Adapt to a Lower Oil Price Environment#14The 2015 Revised Budget Law Reflects Gabon's Fiscal Consolidation Efforts in Response to the New Oil Price Environment In an endeavor to lay the ground for a balanced fiscal trajectory in 2015, the Government adopted a conservative approach and adjusted the budget CFA millions, unless otherwise stated 2014 Executed 2015 Initial Budget Law 2015 Revised Budget Law Revised Budget Revenues Oil revenues Non-oil revenues Expenditures 2,349 2,290 1,834 1,035 929 541 1,315 1,361 1,293 Conservative Revenue Assumptions 2,009 2,190 1,943 Current Expenditures 1,366 1,536 1,334 Salaries 691 733 733 Good and Services 265 380 299 Transfers and interventions 410 424 303 Adjusted Expenditures Levels Capital expenditures 606 644 597 Public investment 350 437 319 External project financing 256 207 278 Other 37 10 12 Primary balance 340 100 (109) Interest on debt 111 141 125 Overall balance (commitment basis) Overall balance as a % of GDP 229 (41) 2.7% (235) (2.9%) Stabilization Fund ■ Aimed at absorbing short-term shocks on revenues from commodity price volatility and ensure continuous funding of capital expenditures Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective Additional Buffers Unexecuted Provisions Unexecuted provisions on goods and services, transfers and investments amounting to CFA 93 billion EUR/USD exchange rate The Revised Budget Law assumes a 1.24 EUR/USD exchange rate, compared to the current level of 1.1 EUR/USD and an average of 1.12 EUR/USD YTD 14#15On the Revenue Side, the Authorities Have Retained Conservative Assumptions for 2015 Conservative Assumptions in 2015 Revised Budget Law Brent Price (USD/bbl)¹ and Gabonese Assumption 2014 Revised 2015 Initial 2015 Revised 70 Budget Law Budget Law Budget Law Oil Assumptions 50 Oil production (in millions of barrels) 78.8 74.8 73.1 Gabonese oil price (US$ per barrel) 100.0 80.0 40.0 30 Exchange Rate Assumptions Jan-15 Feb-15 Apr-15 Exchange rate (EUR/US$) 1.32 1.34 1.24 Exchange rate (US$/ CFA) 493 490 530 Brent price Mar-15 Gabonese oil price assumption: US$40/barrel May-15 Jun-15 Total Oil Revenues (CFA bn) 929.2 540.6 Other Assumptions Current EUR/USD Exchange Rate¹ and Gabonese Assumption Oil production (in millions of barrels) 78.8 74.8 73.1 Gabonese oil price (US$) 100.0 80.0 40.0 EUR/USD Gabonese assumption: 1.24 Manganese production (in millions of tonnes) 1.3 3,863.0 4,610.0 4,200.0 1.2 Manganese sales price (US$ per tonne) 223.6 229.2 229.2 1.1 Gold production (in tonnes) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1 Gold sale price (US$ per ounce) 1,360.0 493.3 Exchange rate (CFA per US$) Jan-15 Sensitivity of Budget Balance to Gabonese Oil Prices* assuming EUR/USD at 1.24 1,350.0 490.0 1,350.0 530.0 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 CFA bn 400 200 Primary balance Overall balance (commitment basis) US$48.5 US$58.2 US$65.8 0 (200) (400) 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Oil price (US/barrel) Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective, Bloomberg 1. Bloomberg market data 80 Breakeven Oil Price (US$/ barrel) Primary balance 48.5 Overall balance (commitment basis) 58.2 Overall balance (cash basis) 65.8 85 *Gabon oil prices is the Brent price minus 3 to 5$ per barrel 15#16On the Expenditures Side, the Government Has Reduced Both Current and Capital Expenditures The recently adopted 2015 Revised Budget Law reflects Gabon's fiscal consolidation efforts in response to the new oil price environment Adjustments in Public Expenditures (CFA billion) 2015 Revised 2014 Execution Percent of 2015 Initial GDP Budget Law Current Expenditures 1,366 15.2% 1,536 Budget Law 1,334 Salaries 691 7.7% 733 733 Goods and services 265 2.9% 380 299 Transfers and interventions 410 4.6% 424 303 Capital Expenditures 606 6.7% 644 597 Public Investment 350 3.9% 437 319 External project financing 256 2.8% 207 278 Other 37 0.4% 10 12 Expenditures 2,009 22.4% 2,190 1,943 Expenditures Level (CFA billion) ■Current Expenditures ■Capital Expenditures 995 1,000 925 606 597 1,189 1,340 1,268 1,366 1,334 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Revised law Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective In response to the new oil price environment, the government has taken a conservative approach and adjusted the Initial Budget Law ■ Lower current expenditures driven by: A 21% reduction in goods and services (transportation, stipends, etc.) The removal of consumer fuel subsidies in 2015, following the removal of industrial fuel subsidies in 2014 ■ Capital expenditures have decreased by 7% reflecting: A contraction of government-financed investment by 27%, focusing expenditures on: (i) investments already started and (ii) priority infrastructure investments of the EGSP An increase in externally-financed investments (+34%) to maintain a steady level of capital expenditures ■ Inclusion of a precautionary provisions in the execution of certain expenditure items (goods and services, transfers and interventions, and public investment) to avoid any slippage in the fiscal balance in case of a deterioration in Gabon's oil prices, and totalling CFA 93bn 16#17The Government Has Created a Stabilization Fund to Weather Future Adverse Oil Price Shocks Objective ■ Aims at reducing the impact on public spending of future commodities prices volatility Target Objective to reach US$500m within the next four years ■ 5% of total revenue derived from extractive industries (oil and mining) ■ Exceptional revenue derived from the spread between budgeted prices and actual prices Funding ■ 25% of the proceeds from tax disputes between the State and oil & mining companies Domiciliation Governance ■ 100% of financial income generated by the fund ■ Dedicated account at the BEAC ☐ Management committee, presided by the Ministry of Economy, with the participation of the Ministry of Budget, the Ministry of Mining and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons. Management committee to conduct a comprehensive audit of oil/mining revenues every three months and determine the share of revenues allocated to the fund ■ Investment strategy focused on assets negatively correlated to commodities prices Investment Strategy ■ No expenses related to the management /operations of the Fund Oversight ■ Fund subjected to the control of the Gabonese "Cour des Comptes" (Court of Auditors) Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 17#18JUSTICE CENTRE HOSPITALIER UNIVERSITAIRE D'OWENDO III. The Current Context Represents an Opportunity for Gabon to Implement Long-Lasting Structural Reforms#19Reforming Fuel Subsidies The current oil price context is an opportunity for the government to remove fuel subsidies with limited short-term social impacts Triple impact on budget Direct subsidies to fuel prices (price stabilization mechanism) Low current oil prices are favorable to a review of subsidies: ▪ Limited immediate impact on consumer spending ■ Consumers are given time to internalize possible fuel price adjustments in the medium term Direct subsidies to SOGARA (Soutien à l'Activité de Raffinage): subsidy for each ton produced and imported Indirect subsidies to SOGARA (custom tax exemption) Reform includes: Removing the price stabilization mechanism for consumer gasoline and fuel in 2015, following the removal of subsidies on industrial gasoline in 2014 Maintaining the price stabilization mechanism on butane and kerosene (important for the poorest) Removing State support to refining activity (Soutien à l'Activité de Raffinage) Liberalizing imports of refined products ■ Creation of an independent regulatory body for the fuel market Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 19#20Enhancing Revenues and Optimizing Expenditures The government has undertaken concrete measures to increase tax revenues and rationalize expenditures Custom Taxes Reform Stronger IT capacity to improve customs tax collection and follow-up Investment in technology to rigorously control quantities of wood exported End of discretionary customs tax exemptions and rigorous follow-up of existing exemptions Rationalization of Current Expenditures ■ Containment of public wages, recruitment freeze and launch of a voluntary retirement program ■ General audit of the main public institutions with a focus on payroll ■ Review and consolidation of all autonomous government agencies TAX REFORM CAREFUL SPENDING VAT & Revenue Taxes Reform End of discretionary VAT exemptions Setup of a transparent and efficient mechanism to track VAT refunds Increase in the number and quality of tax audits Limit in tax loopholes Multiplication of recovery actions Rationalization of Capital Expenditures Adoption of a budgeting methodology based upon budget spending targets ■ Strict prioritization of public capital expenditures, with priority given to (i) investment projects already started, and (ii) investments in key enabling infrastructures Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 20#21Gabon Has Launched a Major Business Climate Reform Initiative to Foster Private Sector Involvement Axes One stop shop for investors Ease of doing business Description of the reform "National Agency for Investment Promotion" created in September 2014 as a one-stop shop for investors, to simplify business registration and guide companies in all procedures. Manager appointed following a transparent procurement process PPP Draft Law under review prior to finalization Improvement in ease of starting a business and of obtaining construction permits Improved access to credit (wider range of possible collateral, out-of-court enforcement) Grants and mentoring programs for entrepreneurs (Prize for Excellence in Entrepreneurship) Capacity building program for SMEs Year of implementation 2014-2015 2014 Support to SMES AfDB grant to support start-up incubators for young entrepreneurs 2015 Creation of an agency centralizing information on tenders for outsourcing (e.g. public procurement) to help SMEs access information Customs Tax regime Dispute One-stop shop at the port for import/export procedures and streamlined procedures "E-tax" project: development of online tax services (tele-payment) 2014 2015 Setup of a domestic arbitration court to reduce bottlenecks at court level 2015 settlement Transparency . Gabon has decided to become again a member of EITI. The President of the National Multi-stakeholder group has been appointed by the government, and the EITI roadmap has been approved by the government, with the Minister of Economy responsible for its implementation Ongoing study to implement large institutional reforms related to the National Statistical Systems Improvement in relationships with the international investor community IMF Article IV mission 2014-15 Sectoral laws Hydrocarbons code and mining code to improve transparency and business climate in extractive sectors 2014 2025 objectives: (i) to rank amongst the 10 best performers in Africa; and (ii) to create 22,000 jobs Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 21#22JUSTICE CENTRE HOSPITALIER UNIVERSITAIRE D'OWENDO IV. Gabon is Accelerating the Implementation Pace of its Emerging Gabon 2025 Strategic Plan#23Landmark Infrastructure Projects Under Implementation Since 2010, Gabon has launched a series of interconnected infrastructure projects in the energy and transport sectors to support Emerging Gabon 2025 Energy Sector Projects " " • Grand Poubara Dam Increasing capacity from 160MW to 280MW Extension works to start early 2016 Aim to support the expansion of the Moanda Mining Cluster Est. Cost: CFA 200bn Transport Sector Projects ☐ 697-km Transgabonais completed in 1986 Capacity of 55MW Port-Gentil Thermal Power Plant 95% completed (pending grid connection) ☐ Works started in 2013 Deepwater Ports Transgabonais Railway was initially Rehabilation of the existing infrastructure to reduce slowdowns and double the capacity of the line Est. Cost: EUR 330mil Increasing capacity of Port-Gentil Port and de-silting of Owendo Port undergoing (Partnership with Singapore Port Auth.) New mining port under development in Libreville (US$527m over 3 years, 40% public stake) A new deep water is contemplated to deserve Belinga Alenakiri Thermal Plant Operational since 2014 70MW Thermal Plant Located in the capital city, Libreville Cost: CFA 58bn Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective ☐ BOMAG Roads Improvement of roads is a priority of the Government: road network covers 9,170km and only 9.6% are paved 435km of new roads built and ongoing works to build an additional 980km (examples include Banio bridge and Port Gentil - Omboué bridge) Goal is to connect the five main industrial centres of the country and numerous projects are underway Airport Development of Port-Gentil airport into an international airport in response to increase air traffic 23#24Key Achievements in the Non-Oil Sectors Major progress made in the fastest-growing non-oil sectors include: ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION Mining and Mineral Processing Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry and manufacturing ■ Moanda-Franceville metallurgic cluster currently under development building on Comilog's existing mining facilities and including: ■ C2M silico-manganese factory that aims at transforming up to 35% of the total manganese production in the medium term ■ Noga Mining's planned metal manganese facility with an initial capacity of 750,000t ■ Belinga iron ore project: ■ Technical studies to be finalized at end-2015 ■ Set up of a dedicated engineering school: "Ecole des Mines de Moanda " in early 2015 Public private partnership with Singapore-based OLAM to develop: ■ Palm oil plantations (100,000 ha), to enter into production in 2015 ■ Rubber plantation (28,000 ha), to enter into production in 2019 ■"Grain" project to develop agricultural entrepreneurship Total investment of US$1bn 3,800 job creation potential ■ PPP with Tropical Holdings to develop fishery value chain signed in 2014 ■ Special Economic Zone of N'Kok (1,126ha area) developed on a PPP basis with Olam (which owns 60% of the zone), for a total investment of US$400m ■ Basic infrastructure works completed in 2013 ■ One-stop shop for investors in operation ■ 60% of industrial land allocated ■ 8 companies already operating and exporting, 10 companies in construction phase, over 70 foreign investors registered ■ Key focus: wood processing, metal recycling ■ Special Economic Zone of Port-Gentil legally established and land fully serviced ■ 3 anchor investors in place: Olam (fertilizer project); Samsung (refinery project); OCP (phosphate-based fertilizer project) Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 24 14#25Human Development Policy: The Necessary Enabler Of The PSGE A National Human Development Strategy has been adopted to promote social development through the definition and regular monitoring of numerous social indicators The social challenge in Gabon The proposed strategy aims at: ☐ Correcting gaps in basic social and infrastructure services access (e.g. sanitation, education and health) Fostering economic inclusion of marginalized groups The 4 components of the Social Pact Component 1 Economic safety nets and social transfers 2 Economic activity for poor households 3 Access to basic public services 4 Economic and social integration policy Objective ■ Allow the poor to meet their dietary, health and educational needs, with strong conditionality ■ Allow poor households to develop profitable activities (microcredit, support to micro- projects) ■ Reduce inequalities in access to social / public services through targeted investment in underprivileged areas Better quality housing, rehabilitation of slums, improved access to remote/rural areas ☐ Funding of the Social Pact The social investment strategy requires an annual budget of CFA 80-110 billion/year over 3 years Additional potential funding sources includes: Public current expenditures Savings from subsidies reforms (e.g. energy subsidies) Involved line ministries' budgets Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective 25 5#26CREMONA Telemenia 26#27JUSTICE CENTRE HOSPITALIER UNIVERSITAIRE D'OWENDO V. Concluding Remarks#28Key Investment Highlights A large and diversified natural resource endowment A robust economic performance despite oil price volatility, boosted by a rapidly expanding non-oil sector An ambitious and deeply transformative economic development strategy to become an emerging country by 2025 A prudent fiscal policy and a strong commitment to reforms A prudent public debt management and strong external position despite oil price volatility A political stability based on a vision of an inclusive, one-nation political system 28#29Summary of Potential Bond Offering Issuer Issuer Ratings Format Currency Size Tenor Expected Issuer Ratings Use of Proceeds The Gabonese Republic S&P: B+ (Stable) / Fitch: B+ (Stable) / Moody's: Ba3 (Stable) 144A/Reg S US Dollar TBD TBD S&P: B+ (Stable) / Fitch: B+ (Stable) / Moody's: Ba3 (Stable) Listing Minimum Denominations Governing Law Joint Lead Managers Financing of various infrastructure projects in the framework of the Emerging Gabon strategic plan Irish Stock Exchange US$200,000 x US$1,000 English law Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered Bank 29#30Questions & Answers UNITI GREDIEMUR UNION TRAVAIL JUSTICE

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Budget 2023 Summary image

Budget 2023 Summary

Government

Engagements pour l'action: République du Congo image

Engagements pour l'action: République du Congo

Government

Ease of Doing Business in Uttar Pradesh image

Ease of Doing Business in Uttar Pradesh

Government

Intensive Household Survey 2014 Overview image

Intensive Household Survey 2014 Overview

Government

Linking EU Acquis Chapters with SDGs image

Linking EU Acquis Chapters with SDGs

Government

Manitoba Economy and Fiscal Update 2023 image

Manitoba Economy and Fiscal Update 2023

Government

2030 Energy Strategy image

2030 Energy Strategy

Government

Constituency Development Fund Overview image

Constituency Development Fund Overview

Government