#1IEEJ: May 2011 Country Report Presentation: Pakistan Energy Crisis and Solution By Muhammad Latif Chief, Energy Wing, Planning Commission Presented at: JICA Training and Dialogue Program on ENERGY POLICY 8-28 May, 2011 jiCA#2IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan's Capital: Islamabad#3IEEJ May 2011 Faisal Mosque Islamabad#4IEEJ May 2011 K-2: the second tallest peak#5IEEJ May 2011 Karakuram mountains in North Pakistan#6IEEJ May 2011 Mahdond Lake in Upper swat valley in north of Pakistan#7IEEJ May 2011 The Kunar river in kaghan Valley North Pakistan#8IEEJ May 2011 Spring time in Chitral, North Pakistan#9IEEJ May 2011 Tomb of founder of Pakistan Quaid Azam M. Ali Jinnah in Karachi#10IEEJ May 2011 Sunset at Clifton Beach, Karachi#11IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan Tower in Lahore#12IEEJ May 2011 Badshahi mosque at night in Lahore#13IEEJ May 2011 Hanna lake in quetta Balochistan#14IEEJ May 2011 Tarbela Dam with 3,478 MW Generation Capacity#15IEEJ May 2011 1000 MW Mangla Dam Hydel Plant#16IEEJ May 2011 Thar desert in Sind possessing 175 billion tonne of Lignite#17IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan possesses all the Four Seasons with Extremes • • The hottest temperature ever recorded in Asia and the Fourth highest ever in the world was in Mohenjo-daro, Sindh 53.5° C (128.3° F) on May 26, 2010 and at least 18 people died as a result. Apart from scarcely populated glacial regions in North where temperature falls as low as -50 ° C, the lowest temperature in inhabited area was recorded in Kallat in Balochistan a few years ago, which was -29° C.#18IEEJ May 2011 First Japanese manufactured nuclear turbine under license from GE is installed at KANUPP installed in 1972 This turbine is still in perfect operating condition.#19IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan's Economic, Energy & Electricity Growth (1990 - 2009) 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% GDP -Poly. (GDP) 1.0% H -1.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -3.0% -5.0% Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, HDIP, Pakistan Economic Survey 2009.#20IEEJ: May 2011 Pakistan's Economic, Energy & Electricity Growth (1990 - 2009) 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% GDP Primary Energy Supply -Poly. (GDP) -1.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 3.0% -5.0% Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, HDIP, Pakistan Economic Survey 2009.#21IEE] May 2011 : Pakistan's Economic, Energy & Electricity Growth (1990 - 2009) 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% GDP Primary Energy Supply Electricity Generation -1.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -3.0% -5.0% The close relationship between economic, energy and electricity growth shows the importance of sufficient and affordable electricity. Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008, HDIP, Pakistan Economic Survey 2009.#22IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan's Per capita Energy Consumption is very low Region/Country Million BTU/Capita World average 72 Singapore 477 Canada 427 USA 334 Europe 146 Japan 179 Middle East 127 China 56 Central & S. America 53 Asia & Oceana 43 India 16 Pakistan 14#23IEEJ May 2011 Fossil Fuel Resource Potential of Pakistan (as of 30 June 2010) (MTOE) Oil Natural Gas Coal Resource potential 3,622 6,849 78,450 Proven recoverable 130 1,067 845 reserves Cumulative 88 568 -89 production, so far Remaining recoverable 41 499 797 reserves Annual production Reserves to production ratio 3.3 29.3 1.6 12 years 17 years ~528 years Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2010 23#24Iran IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan Natural Gas Infrastructure ITEM SNGPL SSGC TOTAL Transmission (KM) 6,729 3,294 10,023 Peshawar Distribution (KM) 52,932 30,173 83,105 Towns / Villages No. 1,019 1,533 2,552 BALOCHISTAN Karachi Quetta bukkur NWFP Islamabad Faisalabad Lahore Sui Multan PUNJAB SINDH India JAMMU & KASHMIR Gas Field SSGCL Lines SNGPL Lines Compressor Stations Major Load Centre#25IEEJ May 2011 Comm. Energy Consumption by Sector Industrial 40.3% 2009-10 Total: 38.8 Million TOE Commercial 3.9% Domestic 21.6% Agriculture 2.2% Transport 30.1% Other Govt. 2.0%#26IEEJ May 2011 Electricity Generation 2009-10 Oil 37.8% Total: 95,608 GWh BY SOURCE Hydel 29.4% Coal 0.1% Nuclear & Imported 3.3% Gas 29.4%#27IEEJ May 2011 Electricity Consumption by Sector Commercial 7.5% 2009-10 Total: 74,348 GWh Domestic 46.1% -St.Light, Traction & Ot 0.7% -Bulk Supplies 5.9% Agriculture 13.0% Industrial 26.7%-#28IEEJ May 2011 Sectoral Electricity Consumption Mix in 2004 and 2010 Sector 2003-04 2009-10 Domestic 45.0% 46.1% Commercial 6.4% 7.5% Industrial 30.2% 26.7% Agriculture 11.6% 13.0% Others 6.8% 6.7%#29IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan Energy Security Plan 2030 Nuclear Hydel Coal Renewable Oil Gas Total Existing (2005) 400 6,460 160 180 6,400 5,940 19,540 2010 1,260 900 700 160 4,860 7,880 2015 900 7,570 3,000 800 300 7,550 20,120 2020 1,500 4,700 4,200 1,470 300 12,560 24,730 2025 2,000 5,600 5,400 2,700 300 22,490 38,490 2030 4,000 7,070 6,250 3,850 300 30,360 51,830 Total 8,800 32,660 19,910 9,700 7,760 83,760 162,590 Source: Energy Security Action Plan, Planning Commission of Pakistan, 2005 29#30IEEJ May 2011 Electricity Generation Capacity (MW) Installed Planned for Existing As In 2005 2010** In 2010 Hydro 6,460 7,720 6,480 Oil & Gas Coal Nuclear 12,340 17,360 13,204 160 1,060 150 400 400 400 Renewables 180 880 2 Total Capacity 19,360 27,420 20,258 Winter Capacity (actual) 12,400 19,636 13,832 Summer Capacity (actual) 15,600 23,536 17,878 Demand (Peak Load) 14,621 21,426 19,257* * In 2005, was projected to be 17,904 MW. **As in Medium Term Development Framework, 2005.#31IEEJ May 2011 Electricity Generation - Capacity Factors WAPDA/ NTDC System No. of Capacity Capacity Factor (%) Type Plants (MW) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Hydro 14 6,444 54% 56% 51% 49% IPPS 17 5,923 53%** 63% 64%*** 66% GENCOS 10 4,779 54% 52% 49% 47% Nuclear 1 325 76% 68% 86% 37% Total 42 17,471 54% 57%* 56%* 54%* * Had this been 70%, load-shedding would not be so severe. ** Due to lower demand? *** Due to fuel shortage? Source: GM (Planning), NTDC There is a need to improve the Capacity Factor. Incentive bonus related to production is one of the solutions.#32IEEJ May 2011 Transmission & Distribution Losses and Theft (2007-08) DISCO Transmission Losses (%) Distribution Losses (%) LESCO 12.8 Areas with greater GEPCO 11.1 private industrial load FESCO 11.2 IESCO 10.3 6.6% MEPCO 18.5 PESCO+TESCO 34.5 HESCO 35.9 QESCO 20.8 Total WAPDA 18.5 KESC 5.1% 29.0 OECD Countries Total: 7-8% The high losses need to be reduced. i) Up-gradation of transmission & distribution system; ii) Electricity consumption bills on internet and iii) Incentives to personnel of better performance grids and publicity of worst performing grids.#33IEEJ May 2011 Seasonal Variation of Hydel Generation (2007-08) 3000 4000 -Tarbela 3478 MW Ghazi Barotha 1450 MW -Mangla 1000 MW ■Total 3500 2500 Total 3000 2000 (GWh) 1500 1000 500 0 Jul Ghazi Barotha Mangla Tarbela T 2500 O 2000 TAL h (CMA) 1500 W Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1000 500 =#34IEEJ May 2011 Energy Losses in Power System (Generation, Transmission, Distribution & Consumption) and Improvements Possible Small Inefficient Power Station Fuel Energy Loss Loss MTOE 22.3 7.5 5.7 66% 23% Loss 30%-50% 2.9-4.0 (2009) Achievable (11.1 40% 6.7 8% -10% 6.0 30% 4.0 Large Efficient Combined Cycle Fuel for 4 hour aarte wi I am a Rich Man With half the fuel consumed, the circular debt phenomena could have been avoided.#35IEEJ May 2011 Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) Objective To develop a sustainable planning capability employing an integrated energy system model that will enable a national team of experts to assess impacts of various strategies for meeting future energy requirements in an optimal manner 35#36IEEJ May 2011 Pak-IEM: Institutional Structure Donor Agencies Planning Commission Define policy studies, integrate results into the planning process, and ensure ongoing funding Pak-IEM Advisory Committee Ministries, Agencies, Regulators & Other Stakeholders Technical Support for Model Improvements and Studies National Integrated Energy Modeling Centre Energy Wing staff who maintain the Pak-IEM database, perform policy analysis, and coordinate studies and model improvements Advisory Task Force Experts from the Ministries and Industries to provide technical support and guidance Research Centers & Universities Analysts, professors and graduate students who use and improve the model Study Teams Assembled by Planning Unit for specific studies or tasks 36#37IEEJ May 2011 Pak-IEM: Contributing Stakeholders M/O P&NR Resource Supply Regulators NEPRA, OGRA Future Technologies IEA, USDOE DG Oil, Gas & PC Upstream Refineries SNGPL & SSGCL HDIP Pak-IEM Demand Sectors Agriculture NARC Commercial HB-Pak Demand Projections M/O F, PIDE Residential UETT, HB-Pak Local Experts Power Sector M/o W&P WAPDA, KESC, PPIB NTDC, DISCOS AEDB Thar Coal & Energy Board Industry MEC, ENERCON Transport NTRC 37#38IEEJ May 2011 Pak-IEM: Reference Energy System PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY Mining, e.g. Crude oil → Natural gas Coal Imports, e.g. Crude oil Oil products Exports, e.g. Oil products Coal (PRIMARY ENERGY) Renewables, e.g. → Biomass Hydro Solar Wind CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES END-USE TECHNOLOGIES (FINAL ENERGY) Fuel Processing Plants, e.g. Oil refineries Hydrogen Ethanol Power Plants, e.g. → Conventional IGCC Solar Wind Nuclear CCGT Fuel cells CHP Industry, e.g. Steam boilers Machinery DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICE (USEFUL ENERGY) Commercial, e.g. → Air conditioners → Light bulbs Households, e.g. Space heaters → Refrigerators Agriculture, e.g. Pumps → Tractors Transport, e.g. Gasoline car Fuel cell bus Industry, e.g. → Process steam → Motive power Commercial, e.g. → Cooling Lighting Households, e.g. Space heat Refrigeration Agriculture, e.g. → Water supply Transport, e.g. →> Person-km RESOURCE SUPPLY- TECHNOLOGY COST AND COST CURVES PERFORMANCE DEVICE COST AND PERFORMANCE DEMAND PROJECTIONS 38#39IEEJ May 2011 Current Energy Crisis: Causes • Weak planning & Implementation Unfavorable policies/ environment for private investment due to past policy reversals. Indecisiveness of the relevant departments causing delays. Lack of coordination among stakeholders.#40IEEJ May 2011 Current Energy Crisis: Bottlenecks Many players involved in Thar coal development. Delay in implementation of mega hydel projects. Single supplier for nuclear power technology/ projects (China).#41IEEJ May 2011 Current Energy Crisis: Short Term Measures Immediately Implement Energy Efficiency measures Campaigns for energy conservation Improve Fuel (Oil & Gas) supply by addressing Circular Debt problem. Control Electricity Theft and improve Tariff regime.#42IEEJ May 2011 Current Energy Crisis: Long Term Measures Rationalize gas prices and its inter-sectoral use. Develop Base Load Capacity based on Hydel, Coal and Nuclear power. Discourage use of Oil for power generation. For credible balance between demand and supply, develop integrated energy modeling system. Supply side should be kept consistent with the expected national growth. Involve private sector in energy policy formulation. Close Coordination among various stakeholders in the energy sector Market forces to work in the Energy sector with strong regulator.#43IEEJ May 2011 Expectations from The Training Course Pakistan is going to establish Pakistan Energy Research & Information Center • We will appreciate if Japan can help us in its establishment • What is experience of Japan in this area#44IEEJ May 2011 Thank You ありがとう (Arigatō) Contact: [email protected]