#1. 1874 PXXTORAGE COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL Energy ⚫ Energy for Manufacturing • Energy for circular pathways . • Energy Balance Capacity for Decarbonization •1 TW in 2035 ⚫ 1.75 TW in 2050 More than recycling: The importance of multiple metrics for a Circular Economy for PV in the Energy Transition Economics ⚫ Circular business models ⚫ Circular Supply • Chains $ Impacts of Photovoltics for Decarbonization Carbon ⚫Carbon intensity of circular pathways • Minimize carbon impacts Equity ⚫ Jobs • Health • Sustainable Supply Chains Mass •Material Demands ⚫ Lifecycle Wastes Heather Mirletz*, Silvana Ovaitt, Sridhar Seetharaman, Teresa M. Barnes Sept. 20th, 2023 40th EU PVSEC, 5CO.6.6 *Heather. [email protected] Best Student Presentation Nominee#2Current Capacity: 1.2 TWdc Deployment 2022: 240+ GWdc World Decarbonization Goals & 5 PV Deployment Rates m Annual Installations [TWdc] N H 0 2000 Global Historical Deployment 75 TW 60 - 50 90 86 TW 80 - 70 HN WU O Zog 10 40 30 20 Cumulative Solar Capacity [TW] + Replacements 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source Deployment Goals Deployment Rate Scaling vs by 2030 2022 2019 IEA Net Zero 15 TW 630 GW/year x2.6 2021 US Solar Futures 16 TW 600 GW/year x2.5 2021 Zhang et al, Energy & Env. Sci. 70+ TW 2023 Haegel et al. Nature 75 TW 3000 GW/year 1500 GW/year x12.5 x6.3 Masson et al. Snapshot of Global PV Markets - 2023. IEA PVPS Task 1; 2023. COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 2#3Circular Economy for PV Sustainability MANUFACTURING USE (RELIABILITY) REDUCE MATERIAL AND PRODUCT DESIGN REMANUFACTURE RESOURCE EXTRACTION RECYCLE REUSE/ REPURPOSE 目 WASTE Q CYCLE REUSE RECOVERY CI = 1 - Mass of the product Virgin Material Waste V + W -WR(x) 2M + Σx 2 WF(x) Waste from recycling process Waste from Feedstock & Manufacturing Where's the Energy? Saidani et al. A taxonomy of circular economy indicators. J. of Cleaner Production. 2019. Smith and Jones. "Circularity Indicators: An Approach to Measuring Circularity: Methodology." Ellen MacArthur Foundation. 2019. COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 3#4Multiple Metrics How do we measure impact of circular choices for PV lifecycles? Virgin Material Reduce Extraction of Virgin Materials Waste Reduce Wastes throughout PV lifecycle Energy Demand Minimize Energy demands of processes and materials Carbon Intensity Minimize carbon intensity of lifecycle Installed Capacity Maintain PV Capacity to meet Energy Transition G Net Energy Energy Generated minus Energy Demand Energy Balance Energy Generated divided by Energy Demand Supply Chain Security Just and Reliable sourcing of materials COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 4#5PV in Circular Economy Tool PV ICE Materials and Systems Flow Concept (Mass Flow) Energy + Carbon (Dev) Yearly New Installs Degradation System-dynamics, geospatial, open-source model that evaluates the material, energy and carbon viability of the PV manufacturing, deployment, reuse, and recycling industries across the Energy Transition, allowing exploration of supply chains with varying degrees and types of circularities. # New Installs % by technology n technology Glass Silicon Silver etc. Installed Capacity Modules loss based on exped lifetime + Early losses (Weibull Pdf) Exit Material Glass Silicon Ag, Al, etc. Includes pathways for circularity specific for PV REUSE (RESELL & MERCHANT TAIL), REPAIR, REMANUFACTURE, RECYCLE https://www.nrel.gov/pv/pv-ice-tool.html COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES | 5 ONREL#6Mass and Energy in Dynamic with time, accounting for: PV module evolution process improvements PV ICE historical market shares System boundary: cradle to grave of module materials Example: Glass Batch Prep Module Manufacturing [m2] Electricity Melt & Methane Refine Direct process electricity and fuels Form 4 Post Form Material Manufacturing E Glass Manufacturing [kWh/kg] [kg] E generated [kWh/yr] Use E module Manufacturing [kWh/m²] Layup Laminate + Potting Framing + QC Test NREL 6#7Explore 3 PV Module Design Aspects Circular Design Scenario Names R-Action Aspect Reduce Efficiency High Efficiency + Long Life Reduce & Lifetime Reuse Long Life + Recycling Recycled Si PERC Circular + Long life Remanufacture Material & Recycle Circular + High eff Circularity COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 7#8What if... we prioritized one aspect at the expense of the other two? Extreme Long-Lived High Efficiency Circular Lifetime "Extreme" Scenarios Efficiency Reduce Reduce & Reuse Mass Circularity Remanufacture & Recycle COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES | 8 ONREL#9Reduce & Reuse What if... 2/3 design aspects could be improved by 2050, to a less perfect level? Ambitious ---High Eff + Long-life ---Long Life + Recycling --Recycled Si + Long-life ---Circular + Long-life ---Circular + High Eff Lifetime "Ambitious" Scenarios Efficiency Reduce - Mass Circularity Remanufacture & Recycle COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES | 9 ONREL#10Baselines Business As Usual Currently commercialized Technologies and their expected improvements -PV ICE -PERC -SHJ —TOPCon Low Quality "Business as Usual" Scenarios Efficiency Reduce Reduce Lifetime & Reuse Mass Circularity Remanufacture & Recycle COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES | 10 ONREL#11G Full manuscript submitted to EPJ for peer-reviewed publication: H. Mirletz et al. "More than Recycling: The importance of multiple metrics for a Circular Economy for PV in the Energy Transition" Takeaways#12All Scenarios Require Replacements by 2100 里 90 80 70 Effective Capacity: No Replacements Capacity Target PV_ICE Efficiency Lifetime Material Circularity 60 50 40 PERC SHJ TOPCon Low Quality Long-Lived High Eff Circular High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Effective Capacity [TW] 30 Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular Long-life 20 Circular High Eff 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Short lifetimes (15 yrs) do not meet capacity targets without replacements pre-2050 Long Lifetime maintains capacity COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 12#13Annual Manufacturing and Deployment with Replacements Annual Installs with Replacements Decade Average Post 2050 Business as Usual 00 8 7 Extreme >8 TW Ambitious A Efficiency Lifetime Material Circularity ~6 TW/yr 10 LO Annual installed [TW] 4 Range of Literature Predicted Annual Manufacturing m N 1 2022 Deploy Rate והיח!: 2060 2080 2100 Minimum Deployment High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular + Long-life Circular + High Eff 0' 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 Minimum Deployment PV_ICE PERC SHJ TOPCon Minimum Deployment Long-Lived Deployment = Manufacturing Manufacturing = environmental impacts, Mints. SPV Supply Report 2023 Low Qualit infrastructure, logistics, supply chains... jobs... | 13#14Cumulative Deployment 2000-2100 with Replacements ☑ Cumulative Installs with Replacements Baseline 400 Extreme 4.5x Efficiency Lifetime Material Circularity Ambitious 4.5x 350 300 Cumulative installed [TW] 250 200 150 100 50 0 PV ICE PERC SHJ TOP Con Low Quality Long-Lived 1.6x High Eff Circular Short lifetimes = 4.5x min deployment Long lifetimes = 1.6x min deployment High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular + Long-life Circular + High Eff 86 TW minimum deployment COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL |14#15Material Circularity: Great at Waste Minimization Cumulative Lifecycle Wastes Lifecycle Wastes [billion tonnes] m 6 00 8 7 ம் 2- 1 0 Baseline PV_ICE PERC SHJ TOP Con Low Quality Long-Lived Extreme High Eff Circular Efficiency Lifetime Ambitious Material Circularity High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular + Long-life Circular + High Eff COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 15#16Material Circularity: Reduces Virgin Material Demand 8 00 10 Cumulative Virgin Material Demand [billion metric tonnes] 0 2 4 60 Cumulative Virgin Material Demands Efficiency Lifetime Baseline Extreme Ambitious Material Circularity 12 PV_ICE PERC SHJ TOP Con Low Quality Long-Lived High Eff Circular High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular + Long-life + High Eff Circular COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 16#17Annual Material Demands [million metric tonnes] 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 But no matter how Circular, Virgin material demand is not eliminated Annual Material Demands Decade Average Post 2050 Business as Usual Extreme Ambitious Efficiency Lifetime Material Circularity 50 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2000 2020 2040 PV_ICE 2060 2080 2000 2020 Long-Lived High Eff PERC SHJ TOPCon Low Quality Circular 2040 2060 2080 2100 High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular + Long-life Circular High Eff COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 17#18Bifaciality: Improves Net Energy Normalized Net Energy Σ Energy Generated - Σ Energy Demands Baseline But, only 10% 0.10 Net Energy Normalized [Fraction] 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 Extreme C Efficiency Lifetime Ambitious Material Circularity High Eff + Long-life + Long-Life + Long-life Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular Circular + High Eff PV ICE PERC SHJ TOP Con Low Quality Long-Lived High Eff Bifaciality improves net energy Bifaciality + Lifetime Maximizes net energy Circular COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL 18#19Σ Energy Generated Σ Energy Demands Lifetime: Maximizes Energy Balance Extreme Energy Balance Baseline 70 Ambitious 60 60 50 40 40 Energy Balance [Unitless] 10 0 30 PV_ICE PERC THS TOP Con Low Quality Long-Lived High Eff Circular High Eff + Long-life Long-Life + Recycling Recycled-Si + Long-life Circular + Long-life Circular + High Eff Lifetime improves energy balance Lifetime +Reuse OR +Efficiency maximizes energy balance Efficiency Lifetime Material Circularity COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL 19#20Multi Metric Performance Ambitious Extreme Business as Usual 甲 P Total Deployment Material Lifecycle Demand Wastes Energy Demands Net Energy Balance Energy Scenario TW bmt bmt TWh TWh Unitless PV ICE 191 10.1 5.1 PERC SHJ 188 8.2 2.1 122,000 7,569,000 144,000 7,044,000 50 63 188 7.8 2.0 116,000 7,719,000 67 TOPCon 188 8.0 2.1 119,000 7,644,000 65 IRENA reg. loss 265 11.0 4.2 Long-Lived 145 8.7 3.2 107,000 7,333,000 193,000 6,995,000 37 70 High Efficiency 263 12.2 8.1 Circular 401 9.3 1.2 150,000 7,699,000 52 154,000 7,034,000 47 High Eff + Long-life 189 9.0 4.7 Long Life + Recycling 152 8.8 2.9 112,000 7,328,000 110,000 7,740,000 71 66 Recycled Si + Long-life 227 8.2 1.3 147,000 7,041,000 49 Circular + Long-life 272 8.9 1.5 148,000 7,040,000 49 Circular + High Eff 401 7.2 1.9 137,000 7,051,000 52 Minimize Maximize bmt = billion metric tonnes Benefit Harm COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 20#21Multi Metric Performance Ambitious Extreme Business as Usual P Total Deployment Scenario TW bmt Material Lifecycle Demand Wastes bmt Energy Net Energy Demands Energy Balance PV ICE 191 10.1 5.1 TWh TWh Unitless 144,000 7,044,000 50 Benefits Harms 0 2 PERC SHJ TOPCon 188 8.2 2.1 122,000 7,569,000 63 4 0 188 7.8 2.0 116,000 7,719,000 67 4 0 188 8.0 2.1 119,000 7,644,000 65 4 0 IRENA reg. loss 265 11.0 4.2 193,000 6,995,000 37 0 4 Long-Lived 145 8.7 3.2 107,000 7,333,000 70 3 0 High Efficiency 263 12.2 8.1 150,000 7,699,000 52 Circular 401 9.3 1.2 154,000 7,034,000 47 1 High Eff + Long-life 189 9.0 4.7 110,000 7,740,000 71 3 2 2 O 0 Long Life + Recycling 152 8.8 2.9 112,000 7,328,000 66 3 0 Recycled Si + Long-life 227 8.2 1.3 147,000 7,041,000 49 2 1 Circular + Long-life 272 8.9 1.5 148,000 7,040,000 49 1 Circular + High Eff 401 7.2 1.9 137,000 7,051,000 52 Minimize Maximize 2 Maximize Minimize 2 bmt = billion metric tonnes Benefit Harm COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 21#22Takeaway Messages 1) Material Circularity (Remanufacture, Recycle) Minimizes waste (76%) Can reduce cumulative virgin material demands (up to 29%) 2) No scenario eliminates virgin material demands • Speed of energy transition Source materials sustainably Manufacturing yields and short circular pathways preferred 3) Efficiency and bifaciality (Reduce) • alone improves net energy (9%) and reduces peak material demands (30%) need to combine with other design aspects to improving more metrics 4) Lifetime Extension (Reliability and Reuse) • Minimizes material and Energy Demands, maximizes energy balance Plays well with others, minimizes harms, maximizes benefits No matter what else you do, don't forget to make it last. COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES ONREL | 22#231874 ORAD Full manuscript submitted to EPJ for peer-reviewed publication H. Mirletz et al. "More than Recycling: The importance of multiple metrics for a Circular Economy for PV in the Energy Transition" 1 甲 Thank you! Questions? NREL/PR-5K00-87736 COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES NREL G [email protected] or [email protected] PV ICE Tool: https://www.nrel.gov/pv/pv-ice-tool.html, https://github.com/NREL/PV ICE This work was authored [in part] by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08G028308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) under Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) Agreement 38269 and 38699. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Inclusion and Diversity: One or more of the authors of this paper self-identifies as an underrepresented ethnic minority in science. While citing references scientifically relevant for this work, we also actively worked to promote gender balance in our reference list.