#1UNESCO unesco Presentation of Kazakhstan's Cost Calculation Model SDG 4.2 Nyi Nyi Taung, Programme Specialist, UNESCO Bangkok Masaya Noguchi, Consultant, UNESCO Bangkok UP DOWN A>B>C>D 70%#2Education Costing and Financing Models (1/2) What is Education Costing and Financing Model? The Education Costing and Financing model aims to simulate reality by estimating and assessing future circumstances based on changes in given variables. It take policy options, technical feasibilities, and financial constraints into account in order to project future resourcing and budgeting needs that would serve as a basis for policy dialogue. Data sources EMIS, National education statistic report, UIS database, WB EduStat, OECD Stat. Summary of ECE statistics Population . ECE-aged population ECE enrollment • GER by age and gender . Enrollments by PP school type Number of existing resources • # of teaching/non-teaching staff Scenario Setting Access, Quality, and Equity Targets from SDG 4.2 indicators Projection Results Population . ECE-aged population Pupils GER, pre-priamry Enrollments by PP school types Human and Physical resources Teachers needed Classrooms needed Financial requiremnets Recurrent costs • # of PP school Economic conditions • GDP and GDP growth International aid trends National Education system UNESCO unesco . Capital costs Economic Variables Impact of COVID-19 Expenditure framework • • Financial source Total expenditures Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Education 203010#3Education Costing and Financing Models (2/2) Methodology to project funding gap School-aged population Intake and flow rates Teachers & other staffs Pupil-teacher ratio Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Enrolments by grade UNESCO unesco Funding Gap Buildings & Unit equipments Cost Financial Requirements Financial Resources Pupil-classroom ratio Learning materials Number of learning materials Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan | | Public Spending National Wealth (GDP) Government Budget Budget to Education Sector Household Contribution Development Partner's Contribution Stakeholder Contribution Education 203010#4Existing Education Costing Models [Global Level] UNESCO GMR costing model (2015) Education Commission Costing model (2016) ❖ For regional advocacy Asia-Pacific Regional Education Costing Model [Regional Level] UNESCO costing model ESCAP version (2018) AP Regional Costing and Financing Model (2020) For ESP Development • [Country Level] UNESCO EPSSim v1.0 (2001) UNESCO EPSSim v2.9b (2012) UNESCO SimuED (2020) BARMM Costing Model • SDG 4.2 Costing Model For Thematic Analysis BARMM Education Simulation Model (Philippine) SDG 4.2 Costing Model ASIA-PACIFIC United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Sustainable Development Goals Education Costing Model unesco unesco BARMM Education Simulation Model GG Our young people will be the vanguards of tomorrow. We need them to be well-educated and in good health. Education and health will help our children and youth to take on the challenges of leading the Bangsamoro nation in the future. A healthy body produces a healthy and sound mind, which is critical for future leaders in their decision-making process and nation-building." Minister Mohegher Iqbal Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Kazakhstan SDG 4.2 Costing Model unesco UNITED NATIONS ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE Education 203010#5How much would it cost to achieve SDGs Target 4.2 in Kazakhstan? How many teaching staffs are required to achieve equitable access to ECE? How much would financing gap be to achieve equitable access to ECE? How much would the government need to spend to compensate financing shortfalls? UNESCO unesco Education 203010#6Kazakhstan SDG 4.2 Costing Model Kazakhstan SDG 4.2 Costing Model The main purposes are: ➤ To be used as a projection tool to estimate the physical / human resources and financial requirements to facilitate policy discussion to achieve SDG 4.2 targets, as well as Kazakhstan Education Sector Plan. To provide evidence-based information on efficient increase in stakeholders' investment for quality ECCE. Model Type Main objective Coverage: year Coverage: country UNESET unesco UNITED NATIONS ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Excel-based demographic simulation Model Kazakhstan SDG 4.2 Costing Model unesco ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE QAZAGOTAN To estimate education provision and costing of education to achieve ESP and 4.2 Targets 2019-2030 One country (Kazakhstan) Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Education 6 203010#7Kazakhstan SDG 4.2 Costing Model Future prospect to achieve SDG 4.2 Access Target Access Target Targets 100 Baseline 2020 Target 2030 GERS of ECE (Historical trends and its forecast) 100% (SDG 4.2 Target) 80 GER forecast with linear trendline estimation 62.5 75.2% 60.7 75.2 % 60 62.5% 57.7 57.6 54.0 59.7 (Linear Forecast) Target of Sustainable Development Goal 4.2 (International Target) 100% 40 20 Kazakhstan needs to scale up investments to ECE section to achieve the international access target (100 %: universal access to ECE from SDG 4.2). Source: Calculated by UNESCO Bangkok based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics data UNESCO unesco Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan 0 2012 2014 2016 GER SDG 4.2. Target 2018 2020 2022 Prospect 2024 2026 2028 2030 Education 203010#83 Projection Scenarios to estimate financial requirements to achieve SDG 4.2 target Baseline Scenario 1 (Status Quo) Scenario 2 (SDG 4.2 - a) Scenario 3 (SDG 4.2 - b) Access Target Boys Age 3 69.1% 69.1% 100% 100% Age 4 68.9% 68.9% 100% 100 % Age 5 45.2% 100% 45.2% 100 % Age 6 20.4% 20.4% 100% 100% Girls Age 3 68.8% 68.8% 100% 100% Age 4 69.0% 69.0% 100% 100 % Age 5 42.2% 42.2% 100% 100 % Age 6 15.7% 15.7% 100% 100% Financial Target Government education expenditure as % of GDP 2.96 % 2.96 % 2.96% 5% UNESCO unesco Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Education 203010#9Projection Results From the SDG 4.2 Costing Model How many teaching staffs are required to achieve equitable access to ECE? Required number of human resources to achieve national and international scenarios. Status quo (Scenario 1) 100% Access target Required number of ECCE teachers SDG 4.2 Target (Scenario 2 and 3) Status quo (Scenario 1) 100.0 % 350,000 89.3% 82.2% 300,000 SDG 4.2 Target (Scenario 2 and 3) 80% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60.8% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 -Total 71.5% Required # of teachers 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 7 16 5 + 3 2 1 Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR) 0 0 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 Teaching staff Non-teaching staff -Pupil/teacher ratio Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Education 203010 age 3 age 4 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 age 5 age 6 UNESCO unesco#10Projection Results From the SDG 4.2 Costing Model How much would financing gap be to achieve equitable access to ECE? Financial requirements would rise to achieve equitable access to ECE (SDG 4.2 target) in Kazakhstan. Financial requirements to achieve scenario targets (million KZT) 1,400,000 Status quo (Scenario 1) SDG 4.2 Target (Scenario 2 and 3) 1,200,000 1,000,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 777,209.3 800,000 800,000 606,945.7 600,000 513,629.2 600,000 398,460.4 400,000 307,671.0 200,000 0 2019 2022 2025 UNESCO unesco 2027 2030 464,927.2 400,000 307,671.0 200,000 685,121.2 877,282.3 1,253,550.5 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 ■Capital investment ■Recurrent (salaries) ■Recurrent (non-salaries) Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Education 203010#11Projection Results From the SDG 4.2 Costing Model How much would financing gap be to achieve SDG 4.2 targets? Financial gaps would rise to KZT 421,076 million for SDG 4.2 target (Scenario 2). To compensate for financial shortfall, the government need to increase government expenditure on education as % of GDP or government education expenditure on pre-primary education as % of education expenditure by 2030 ➤ EX) Increase government education expenditure from 2.96% of GDP (Scenario 2) to 5 % (Scenario 3). Status quo (Scenario 1) Funding gaps (KZT million) SDG 4.2 Target (Scenario 2; 2.96 % of GDP for edu) SDG 4.2 Target (Scenario 3; 2.96 % of GDP for edu) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 832,474.7 1,209.3 629,554.9 600,000 517,968.7 606,945.7 398,460.4 513,629.2 400,000 307,671.0 381,522.6 307,189.3 200,000 0 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 UNESCO unesco 877,282.3 685,1212 629,554.9 464,9272 517,968.7 307,671,0 381,522.6 307,189.3 1,253,550.5 832,474.7 1,369,441.3 1,253,550.5 921,226.3 696,218.6 877,282.3 446,089.3 685,121.2 307,189.3 464,927.2 307,671.0 2019 2022 -Cost 2025 2027 2030 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 -Expenditure Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan Education 203010#12Utilize SDG 4.2 Costing Model for Policy Dialogue Summary unesco ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE UNITED NATIONS ESCAP Kazakhstan SDG 4.2 Costing Model Commission for Asia and the Pacific Identify cost items and unit costs required for ensuring expanded access to inclusive quality ECCE. Scenario name Scenario 1 Early Childhood Educational Development programmes Net enrollment ratio Make projections of costs using a simulation model. Plan for more equitable distribution of education resources between regions and identity groups. Identify funding gaps and resources. Policy dialogues for mobilizing adequate resources. UNESET unesco Unit: million/thousand : constant KZT million Number of enrollments in pre-primary education 400,000 219.077 239,405 261,619. 277.562 303,317 45.0% 200,000 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 0 40.0% 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 35.0% 30.0% age age 1 age 2 Number of enrollments in preschool education, by gender 200,000 134,4927,120 112,5506,521 100,000 142,7264,836 156,0207,297 123,0396,365 25.0% 0 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 20.0% 13.5% 18.6% 18.5% 18.5% 18.6% 15.0% Boys Girls Number of enrollments in preschool education, by type 237,083 257,820 10.0% 5.0% 300,000 200,000 100.000 224,191 206,151 189,558 6:3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 9,5190 9,990265 0.0% 2019 2025 0,29135 30,386.093 0,338,166 2030 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 Public Private Other Total age 0 age 1 --age 2 Pupil/teaching staff ratio and number of teaching staffand and non-teaching staff, total 10,000 9.000 35.8 8,000 7,000 5,40 6,000 6,259 5.000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Public 40 10,000 35.0 26.0 6.40 25.0 6.104 7.366 0 0 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 30 Teaching staff Non-teaching staff Pupil/teaching staff ration 35.0 35 8,666 7.980 25 Private 880 40 35.0 860 20 866 868 887 20 840 887 803 820 0 15 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 Teaching staff Non-teaching staff Pupil/teaching staff ration 10 Other 5 500 25.0 25.0 25.0 35.0 403 35.0 0 2009 2022 2025 2027 2030 Teaching staff Non-teaching staff Pupil/teaching staff ratio 0 0 2019 2022 2025 2027 2030 Teaching staff Non-teaching staff -Pupil/teaching staff ratio Number of KG by school type 4,000 3,033 3,000 2.616 2,776 2.578 2,394 2,191 242 371 2,062 1,896 2,000 1,000 300 295 303 0 33 71 304 101 0 - Total Public Private Other 2019 2022 2025 2027 Presentation of the Results of the SDG 4.2 Costing Program and Practical Possibilities of Using the Model for Kazakhstan 303152 2030 Education 203010#13UNESCO unesco Demonstration Education 203010