Cenovus's Diversified & Resilient Business Model

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

8 of 83

Creator

Cenovus logo
Cenovus

Category

Energy

Published

2024F

Slides

Transcriptions

#1INVESTOR DAY 2024 cenovus ENERGY#2LAND ACKNOWLEDGEMENT . Cenovus would like to acknowledge in our many operating areas we work on the traditional lands of multiple Indigenous Peoples. In Canada, this includes First Nations, Métis and Inuit, and in the United States this includes tribal nations. We extend our most sincere thanks and respect to the members of these nations. cenovus ENERGY 2#3INVESTOR DAY - MARCH 5, 2024 Agenda 8:30 am 8:40 am Introduction and opening remarks - Jason Abbate, SVP Investor Relations Strategy & vision - Jon McKenzie, President & CEO 9:00 am 9:30 am Commercial value chain - Drew Zieglgansberger, EVP & CCO Integrated operating portfolio - Keith Chiasson, EVP & COO 10:00 am Break 10:15 am Sustainability & ESG - Rhona Del Frari, CSO & EVP Stakeholder Engagement 10:35 am Financial framework - Kam Sandhar, EVP & CFO 11:00 am Q&A session - Cenovus Leadership Team cenovus ENERGY 3#4STRATEGY & VISION Jon McKenzie President & CEO#5CENOVUS'S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Integrated portfolio delivers to maximize shareholder value Top-tier safety performance and sustainability leadership Safe and reliable operations Best-in-class Upstream and Downstream assets Practical approach to sustainability Note: See Advisory cenovus ENERGY Cost leadership Financial discipline Returns-focused capital allocation Generate growing free funds flow Conservative capital Low-cost structure across the portfolio structure Operating costs G&A Strong balance sheet Sustaining capital Disciplined approach to capital allocation Disciplined focus on shareholder returns Investments aligned to core strategy Greater than cost of capital returns at bottom of the cycle prices Sustainable and growing base dividend Increasing return of excess free funds flow to shareholders 5#6DELIVERING RESULTS Track record of improving business fundamentals 2017-2020 2021-2022 2023 2024 - 2028 $6.0 billion long-term debt reduction¹ Significant sustaining capital and operating cost reductions Improved market access for our Oil Sands production Strategic divestitures Husky acquisition and the integrated model Strategic divestitures $3.9 billion in shareholder returns² $5.4 billion long-term debt reduction Realized over $1.4 billion in synergies Toledo acquisition and startup Superior startup $2.8 billion in shareholder returns² $1.6 billion long-term debt reduction Initiated three-year high- value growth investment cycle 100% excess free funds flow to investors Maintain net debt at $4.0 billion Complete growth investment cycle Focus on disciplined operations and integration Downstream profitability Sunrise acquisition Note: See Advisory. 1) Long-term debt including current portion, as at June 30, 2017. 2) Includes, as applicable, base & preferred dividends, NCIB purchases, variable dividends and payments allocated to the common share warrant obligations. cenovus ENERGY 6#7GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND CONTINUES TO RISE Cenovus is positioned to meet growing demand MMbbls/d 120 Global oil demand is linked to economic growth 1,2 Global GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) 100 80 ☐☐ 60 40 40 20 20 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2022 I OECD Oil Demand Non-OECD Demand Global GDP per capita 14,000 12,000 From 2024 to 2035: 10,000 The global population 8,000 6,000 4,000 will rise by over 750 million people.2 Global GDP will continue rising.3 The need for oil continues now and into the future. 2,000 0 2035F 1) Energy Institute 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy based on 2022 data. 2) The World Bank DataBank: World Development Indicators. 3) IMF World Economic Outlook October 2023. World GDP growth from 2024-2028 is estimated at 2.9%, 3.2%, 3.2%, 3.1% and 3.1%, respectively. cenovus ENERGY 7#8HIGH-QUALITY, DIVERSE & INTEGRATED PORTFOLIO Geographic diversification, physical integration and market access Production Logistics ~850 Mbbls/d blended bitumen ~600 Mbbls/d takeaway & refining capacity Sunrise Oil Sands and Thermal Heavy Oil production Lloydminster Thermals & Conventional Heavy Oil Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY FCCL Pipeline egress ~250 Mbbls/d exposed to Hardisty Refining ~400 Mbbls/d of heavy oil refining capacity Toledo Superior Refining and Upgrading Canadian Refining U.S. Refining Lloydminster complex Lima WRB 8#9HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FIVE-YEAR PLAN Disciplined and capital-efficient growth MBOE/d Mbbls/d Production & throughput 1,000 900 800 700 $ billion Capital investments¹ 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 600 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Downstream throughput ■Total production 0.0 2024F 2025F 2028F Note: See Advisory. 1) Capital investments exclude potential capital spending associated with GHG emissions reductions. cenovus Sustaining capital ENERGY 2026F 2027F 2028F ■Growth capital 9#10CENOVUS'S VALUE PROPOSITION Compelling investments drive significant funds flow growth Growing cash from operating activities $ billion 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 $ billion 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Increasing free funds flow over the plan¹ 0.0 0.0 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F US$60 WTI US$75 WTI 2027F ■US$100 WTI 2028F 2023 2024F ■US$60 WTI 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F US$75 WTI ■US$100 WTI Note: See Advisory. 1) Non-GAAP financial measure. cenovus ENERGY 10#11COMMERCIAL VALUE CHAIN Drew Zieglgansberger EVP & Chief Commercial Officer#12PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW Diverse cash flow streams from multiple jurisdictions Rainbow Lake Northern Corridor Edson Sunrise Christina Lake Foster Creek TLloyd Upgrader & Refinery Clearwater Bruderheim Hardisty Terminal Terminal cenovus ENERGY Lloydminster Superior Refinery Wood River Refinery Borger Refinery LEGEND Conventional Offshore Oil Sands Crude export pipelines White Rose Terra Nova Canadian Refining TU.S. Refining China ASIA PACIFIC Toledo Refinery Lima Refinery Liwan Madura Strait Indonesia 12#13OIL SANDS AND CONVENTIONAL HEAVY OIL Long-life, low-cost resources Oil Sands and Thermals • • Low sustaining capital allows us to generate high cash flow through the cycle. Contributed approximately 75% of our total operating margin in 2023. Best-in-class SAGD resource with 30+ years of reserve life. Conventional Heavy Oil • ~2,000 multilateral locations in inventory and the largest land position in the area. Integrated with the Lloydminster complex. Supported by existing operated midstream infrastructure. Short-cycle asset provides optionality to lower costs, accelerate development and grow production >50 Mbbls/d. Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Foster Creek 13#14CENOVUS IS THE INTEGRATED IN SITU LEADER High-quality resources with decades of development Portfolio anchored by low sustaining capital projects Years 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Average of 16 years below US$45 WTI Christina Lake Sunrise Years 35 Significant inventory 30 below US$45 WTI supply cost Foster Creek Lloyd Thermals Top quartile reserve life¹ 2P reserve life of >30 years 25 25 Cenovus 1P RLI ~ 21 years 20 15 10 5 0 CVE Peers Cenovus Peer average~ 12 years Years of economic inventory (US$60 WTI) Years of economic inventory (US$45 WTI) Note: See Advisory. 1) Proven Reserve Life Index based on BMO Global Oil and Gas Cost study 2023. Peers include APA, AR, ARX, BP, CHK, CHRD, CLR, CNOOC, CNQ, COP, CPG, CTRA, CVX, DVN, EC, ENI, EOG, EQNR, EQT, FANG, HES, IMO, MEG, MRO, MUR, OVV, OXY, PBR, PEMEX, PetroChina, PEY, PXD, REP, RRC, SHEL, Sinopec, SU, SWN, TOU, TTE, XOM & YPF. cenovus ENERGY 14#15OFFSHORE STRATEGIC VALUE Stable, diversified free cash flow generation Atlantic Atlantic portfolio sustains exposure to Brent pricing well into the 2030s. • Generates substantial free cash flow over the five-year plan. • • Robust go-forward returns at bottom of the cycle pricing with West White Rose Project completion. • Asia Pacific Strong free cash flow generation, with limited capital requirements. Geographically diverse business tied to high value, mostly fixed- price contracts. Exploring portfolio upside opportunities and contract extensions. SeaRose FPSO Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Liwan Gas Project 海洋石油981 HAI YASH YO NOT 海洋石油981 15#16DISCIPLINED APPROACH TO CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT Strategic long-term portfolio with optionality to grow • • Historically underfunded as Cenovus looked to de-lever its balance sheet. Short-cycle opportunities that provide ability to adjust to market conditions. Diversifying our funds flow and utilizing extensive pipeline network to market product ex-Alberta. Constructive long-term view of the North American gas market. T93 R11 R7 R4W6 R25 R21 R17 R13 R9 R6 R2W5 R23 R19 R15 and districts T91 T89 Conventional land base T87 T85 T83 T81 T79 T77 T75 שות Edson RI R11 R7W4 T92 R12 R10 R8 R6 R4W6 T90 T114 T113 T113 T88 T112 T112 T86 וווד T84 T110 T110 T82 T109 T109 T80 T108 T108 T78 T107 Rainbow T107 T76 T106 T106 T74 T105 T105 T72 T73 T71 T104 T104 T70 T103 T103 T68 T69 T67 T65 North Corridor R12 R10 R8 R6 R4W6 T66 T64 T63 T62 T61 T60 T59 T58 • Modestly increasing investment to optimize owned infrastructure and reduce unit operating costs. T57 T56 T55 T54 T53 T53 T51 LEGEND T50 T49 T48 Working Interest (CSE) T46 T47 T45 T44 2024 Ex-AB egress 220 MMcf/d > 2027 Ex-AB egress T42 T43 Asset Area T40 T41 330 MMcf/d Clearwater T38 T39 T37 Edson T37 Clearwater T35 North Corridor T35 T33 T33 Rainbow T31 T31 T29 R23 R19 R15 R11 R7 R4W6 R28 R24 R20 R16 R12 R23 R4 RIW5 R26 R22 R18 R14W4 Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 16#17CENOVUS'S INTEGRATED MODEL Extensive optionality for ex-Alberta egress West Coast Trans Mountain Expansion ~144,000 bbls/d Transit time: 8 to 10 days Tolling US$7.50 - US$9.50/bbl Rainbow Lake Northern Corridor Edson Clearwater Sunrise Christina Lake Foster Creek T! Lloyd Upgrader & Refinery Lloydminster Bruderheim Hardisty Terminal Terminal Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Borger Refinery Superior Refinery Chicago Toledo Refinery Lima Refinery Wood River Refinery PADD II Ex-Alberta egress ~290,000 bbls/d Transit time: 15 to 45 days Tolling US$5.50 - US$7.50/bbl U.S. Gulf Coast Ex-Alberta egress ~100,000 bbls/d Transit time: 30 to 35 days Tolling US$9.00 – US$10.00/bbl 17#18HEAVY OIL VALUE CHAIN Realizing uplift through value optimization and marketing Upstream Midstream Downstream ~850 Mbbls/d WCS @ Hardisty ~250 Mbbls/d Product storage ~4.0 MMbbls Total refining and upgrading ~745 Mbbls/d Product mix Third-party product 10% 10% ~600 Mbbls/d Option to export ~60 Mbbls/d purchases 10% ~335 Mbbls/d Blended bitumen Heavy processing and takeaway capacity TMX ~144 Mbbls/d USGC1 ~100 Mbbls/d ■Gasoline Distillate 40% Asphalt ■SCO ■ Other 30% Lloydminster complex ~110 Mbbls/d ~410 Mbbls/d Product storage Heavy ~7.4 MMbbls refining CVE PADD II refining ~300 Mbbls/d capacity 1) Numbers are not intended to be additive due to changing pipeline commitments through the plan. cenovus ENERGY 18#19INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN Physical integration enhances margin capture across the value chain Indicative operating margin uplift at US$75 WTI¹ Heavy oil value chain realization US$/bbl 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Netback@ Hardisty Crude export Lloydminster Complex U.S. Refining Total Maximizing the value of every barrel we produce. Note: See Advisory. 1) Without consideration of inventory timing impacts, but includes transportation, royalties and operating costs. cenovus ENERGY Gasoline Diesel, SCO & Other Crude export WCS Value added integration ~70% uplift 19#20STRATEGIC VALUE OF U.S. REFINING IN PADD II Structural crude advantage enables strong PADD II refining margins Percent 200% 180% Upper PADD II margin capture¹ 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Upper Padd II Rest of US • • Strategic value Competitive advantage driven by access to inland. crude and exposure to U.S. domestic product market. Offsets the locational and transport discounts on our heavy oil. PADD II focused refining position supported by historical strength in this market. Opportunity to improve operational reliability to realize the full value of our assets. Note: See Advisory. 1) HSB Soloman Associates, LLC. Upper PADD II represents Refinery Supply Corridor II (RSC II), not including Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. cenovus ENERGY 20 20#21CANADIAN HEAVY OIL VALUE CHAIN Tightly integrated Lloydminster complex captures robust margins Strategic value Indicative operating margin uplift¹ Extensive land position in the Lloydminster region • Proven value chain provides US$/bbl significant margin uplift with minimal 40.00 transport or egress constraints. 35.00 Thermal and Conventional Heavy 30.00 barrels ensure long-term feedstock supply into the Lloydminster 25.00 complex. 20.00 Strong domestic refined product market for diesel, asphalt and 15.00 synthetic crude oil. 10.00 Commercial cardlock sells products 5.00 produced at the Lloydminster complex. 0.00 ~150% value uplift Lloyd Upgrader Total Netback@Hardisty Lloyd Refinery 1) Incremental value capture through Lloydminster Upgrader & Refinery at US$75 WTI. cenovus ENERGY Midstream pipelines Lloyd Upgrader and Refinery Lloyd Thermals Conventional Heavy Oil operations 21#22CENOVUS'S DIVERSIFIED & RESILIENT BUSINESS MODEL Shifting exposure to multiple global benchmarks Assets de-risk portfolio funds flow and capture additional margin Concentrated portfolio exposures .TMX Gasoline Refined Products WRB Legacy Cenovus PADD II & USGC cenovus ENERGY PADD II & USGC Hardisty Hardisty Heavy oil value chain anchored by best-in-class SAGD assets. Cenovus today Upstream integrated with a network of heavy oil refining, transportation, and marketing operations. Asphalt Other Jet Diesel Commercial capability monetizes sales volumes and captures profit opportunities in a wide range of markets. 222#23INTEGRATED OPERATING PORTFOLIO Keith Chiasson EVP & Chief Operating Officer#24COMMITTED TO A STRONG SAFETY CULTURE Prioritizing safety and asset integrity above all else • Committed leaders. Protec Engage partners Do it together. what atters. Risk Do it right. minded. 8 • Safety model drives continuous improvement and field level empowerment. • Commitments included on corporate scorecard. Harmonize practices that protect the safety of our staff and integrity of our assets. Eight safety commitments drive the attitudes and behaviors expected of all people at Cenovus, supported by our values. 510 ENOVUS cenovus ENERGY T-2 cenovus ce 24 24#25DISCIPLINED INVESTMENT AND QUALITY OPERATIONS Decades of operational experience building the foundation for the future Quality operator . Safe and reliable operations Strong stakeholder relations Leading ESG performance • Financial discipline Competitive cost structure Returns-focused capital allocation Capital efficient production growth Integrated assets • Best-in-class SAGD assets Track record of execution • Substantial economic reserves • Culture of innovation cenovus ENERGY cenovus cenovu ENERS EST • Resilient free funds flow Integration enhances margins 25#26OVERVIEW OF THE UPSTREAM FIVE-YEAR BUSINESS PLAN Maintaining capital discipline, focused on cost reductions and expanding margins Five-year view of upstream production MBOE/d 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2024F 2025F 2026F Upstream operating margin² $ billion 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2027F 2028F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F US$60 WTI US$75 WTI US$100 WTI ■Oil Sands¹ Offshore Conventional Note: See Advisory. 1) Includes Conventional Heavy Oil production. 2) Specified financial measure. cenovus ENERGY 26#27DISCIPLINED ORGANIC GROWTH High-return investments grow our base business MBOE/d Sunrise optimization 200 Narrows Lake tie-back 150 100 Approximately 150,000 BOE/d of growth in five-year plan Foster Creek optimization West White Rose Project Conventional Heavy Oil development Options to grow natural gas production Conventional CHO Offshore Foster Creek optimization: >30,000 bbls/d Narrows Lake tie-back: 20,000 - 30,000 bbls/d Sunrise optimization: 15,000 - 20,000 bbls/d West White Rose project: 45,000 bbls/d Conventional Heavy Oil: 15,000 - 20,000 bbls/d Conventional: 20,000 - 30,000 BOE/d 50 50 2024F Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Oil Sands 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Oil Sands Offshore Conventional Heavy Oil Conventional 27#28PROJECTS COMPETE FOR CAPITAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE Investing in our business to maximize returns on capital Project internal rate of return at US$45, $60¹ Project IRR Growth 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sustaining Foster Creek debottleneck cenovus ENERGY Foster Creek Amine Claus Narrows Lake tie-back Sunrise optimization West White Rose Project Christina Lake sustaining Foster Creek sustaining Lloyd Thermal sustaining Sunrise sustaining Conventional sustaining Refining optimization Adjusted funds flow at US$45 WTI² $ billion Downstream 7.0 Refining reliability Lloyd Refinery debottleneck 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2024F 2028F High-return projects grow adjusted funds flow US$45 WTI Note: See Advisory. 1) The internal rate of return (IRR) is the discount rate at which the net present value of an investment is zero. The IRR used in evaluation is based on the after-tax free funds flow and reflects projects included in the five-year plan. 2) Non-GAAP financial measure. 2023 adjusted funds flow was $8.8 billion. 2023 cash from operating activities was $7.4 billion. 28#29OIL SANDS DELIVERING COMPETITIVE RETURNS Best-in-class Oil Sands capital efficiency $ / flowing bbl 14,000 Oil Sands sustaining capital efficiency¹ Capital efficiency today Sunrise future capital efficiency 12,000 10,000 Weighted average of 8,000 ~$7,500 / flowing bbl 2028F 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Christina Lake Foster Creek Lloyd Thermals Sunrise Sustaining capital efficiency average of ~$7,500 per flowing barrel Sustaining capital improvement of ~25% at Sunrise over five-year plan Consistently low finding and development costs² ~$8/bbl Note: See Advisory. 1) Capital efficiency represents sustaining capital divided by peak production. 2) Finding & development costs based on average in-year capital spend divided by average production over the planned period. cenovus ENERGY 29#30CONTINUOUS FOCUS ON REDUCING COSTS Sustainable reductions in our cost structure enhance margin Mbbls/d 800 Industry leading Oil Sands portfolio¹ Oil Sands operating costs per barrel 1,2,3 $/bbl 16.00 $ billion 15.0 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2024F 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.00 0.0 2028F 2024F 2028F Oil Sands operating costs Oil Sands production Note: See Advisory. 1) Includes Conventional Heavy Oil. 2) At US$75 WTI. 3) Specified financial measure. cenovus ENERGY Oil Sands operating margin³ 2024F 2028F US$60 WTI US$75 WTI US$100 WTI 30#31CENOVUS HAS THE BEST ASSETS IN THE INDUSTRY Industry-leading projects that outperform today and for decades to come Cenovus has the lowest SOR in industry Oil Sands production growth of ~75,000 bbls/d over five-year plan Industry leading steam to oil ratios¹ Cenovus average SOR ~2.5 in 10 years Steam to oil ratio (SOR) 4.0 Cenovus project today Cenovus project in 10 years² 3.0 2.0 Cenovus 2034 SOR² 1.0 Christina Lake Foster Creek Lloyd Thermals Sunrise 2023 Cenovus 2023 peer average Resource Experience Note: See Advisory. 1) Peer average based on 2023 AER full year data. Peers include ATH, CNOOC, CNQ, COP, IMO, MEG, & SCR. 2) 10-year forecast SOR. cenovus ENERGY Technology 31#32CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING OUR COMPETITIVE COST STRUCTURE Low-cost execution and operating model Subsurface operating improvements • Value-driven technology implementation. • Production and SOR improvements. • Non-condensable gas (NCG) injection. Enhanced well completions designs. Value-driven optimization and execution . • Enhanced drilling and completions technology. Increased well lengths and well spacing. Reduction in surface pads and footprint. Zero-based module design. cenovus ENERGY Sunrise legacy design Sunrise new design Optimizing Sunrise pad design 32 32#33LOW-COST EXECUTION AND CAPITAL EFFICIENT GROWTH Narrows Lake tie-back accessing ~450 million barrels of proven reserves¹ • • Increases production at Christina Lake by ~25,000 bbls/d. Highly efficient capital relative to greenfield growth. • Utilizing existing steam capacity. High-quality resource with low F&D cost and low SOR. 17 km pipeline in service mid-2025; 45% complete. • Total installed capital cost of ~$295MM. Note: See Advisory. 1) McDaniel & Associates proven (1P) reserves in Narrows Lake core development area. cenovus ENERGY Christina Lake and Narrows Lake region X06 XOT X03 X04 Christina Lake MAY MOT 1962 MOS CL Plant A01 80201 BOX Narrows Lake Tie-back N12 LO N13 B01 AD 308 G05 205 HO3 806 009 BOT 812 LEGEND DA BOUNDARY WP6 PADS BASE/SPECIFIC PADS 33#34CONTINUING OUR INNOVATIVE CULTURE Improved reliability and cost avoidance • Investing in digital technology with tangible benefits. • Developed in-house core competencies. Generating hundreds of millions of annual run-rate improvement in cost efficiencies. • Enables low sustaining capital costs. • Primary examples: Steam injection optimization. Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) - Run-time optimization. A history of delivering innovative benefits Steam Injection Optimization ESP Ride- through Butane- Blending Liner analysis Emulsion optimization 2017 2024 Advanced Process Controls Process Heat Data Integration Management Advanced pigging analysis Downhole temperature sensing Coalescence prediction Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Value-driven optimization and execution المال Infrastructure and Tools Data Management Analytics and End Solutions Staff and Skills Adding over $350 million annual run-rate benefit since 2017 34#35LOW COST OF SUPPLY WINS ACROSS THE CYCLE Oil Sands finding and development costs significantly lower than competing plays In situ oil sands F&D costs remain low for years to come¹ US$/bbl 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Current Oil Sands Permian Eagle Ford 5 years 10 years $/BOE 15.00 10.00 5.00 "Reserve replacement cost is the single-most important driver of supply cost." BMO Capital Markets: Oil & Gas Global Cost Study - August 2023 Upstream operating costs per BOE 0.00 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Note: See Advisory. 1) McDaniel & Associates estimates provided to Cenovus January 2024. Finding and development costs represent total capital per well divided by total recovered barrels. cenovus ENERGY 35#36ATLANTIC REGION West White Rose Project nearing completion Increasing our exposure to Brent based pricing Mbbls/d 60 40 40 West White Rose Project has achieved 75% completion. Net peak production of ~45,000 bbls/d in 2028. Free cash flow positive in 2026 at US$60 WTI. High-netback, Brent-based pricing. 20 20 0 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Terra Nova White Rose West White Rose $ billion West White Rose Project cash flow profile¹ 1.5 0.8 0.0 -0.8 -1.5 Note: See Advisory. 1) West White Rose Project cash flow profile defined as asset operating margin less capital investments, not including tax at US$75 WTI. West White Rose Project cenovus ENERGY 36#37ASIA PACIFIC OFFERS DIVERSIFICATION Low capital, strong free funds flow generation $ billion 4.0 3.0 Asia Pacific cumulative operating margin¹ High-value, stable- price gas contracts 2.0 1.0 Asia portfolio Exploring for additional growth. • Production not limited by resource constraints. Exploration well drilling in 2024. Produced 1 TCF of gas from the Liwan 3-1 field. 0.0 • Achieved first gas at the MAC field in Indonesia. 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F ■US$45 WTI US$100 WTI MBOE/d 40 30 20 20 10 Five-year production outlook LLI 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F ■China Indonesia Note: See Advisory. 1) Non-GAAP financial measure. cenovus ENERGY • Long-term contracts in place until the late 2030's and 2040. Asia Pacific revenue of $1.1 billion and operating margin of $1.0 billion in 2023. Delivers cumulative operating margin of nearly $3.0 billion at bottom of the cycle In the 5-year plan Provides stable operating margin with a netback over $45 per barrel of oil equivalent 37#38LLOYDMINSTER REGIONAL OPPORTUNITY Unlocking production through innovation and technology Mbbls/d 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 20 10 Conventional Heavy Oil growth potential¹ $/bbl 50.00 40.00 • 30.00 20.00 10.00 Lowering cost structure Investment drives per unit operating costs nearly $20/bbl lower in the five-year plan. ARO program reduces per unit operating costs an additional $6 - $7/bbl in the five-year plan. Includes 4,000 wells by 2033. Implementing gas management strategy on existing and new development wells to lower GHG intensity and absolute emissions. 0 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Potential development I Development in plan 2028F 0.00 Operating cost per barrel Short-cycle asset provides optionality to reduce costs and accelerate development Note: See Advisory. 1) Potential development is not included in the five-year plan. 2) At US$ 75 WTI. cenovus ENERGY 38#39STRENGTHENING THE CONVENTIONAL BUSINESS Improving cost structure and optimizing exposure to natural gas MBOE/d Conventional production growth 150 100 50 0 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F ■Natural Gas NGLS Oil $/BOE 15.00 12.00 9.00 6.00 3.00 0.00 2024F Reducing operating costs 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Conventional operating costs per barrel Note: See Advisory. 1) 2023 Annual Information Form. cenovus ENERGY Gas-weighted growth of ~25,000 BOE/d by 2028 Natural gas net processing capacity of ~1.2 Bcf/d¹ to fill Ex-Alberta pipeline access ~220 MMcf/d 39#40Refining throughput • OVERVIEW OF THE DOWNSTREAM FIVE-YEAR PLAN Increasing throughput through improved uptime and reliability Canadian Refining Strategic integration with Lloydminster Thermals and Conventional Heavy Oil businesses. Track record of reliability, with an average of over 90% utilization in 2023. Produces high-value synthetic crude oil, diesel and asphalt. U.S. Refining Mbbls/d 700 600 • Utilization rates improving in 2024: Full availability of capacity at U.S. refineries to capture more margin. Continuous margin improvement throughout the plan from implementing proactive maintenance program and strong operating practices. Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 500 400 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 40#41DOWNSTREAM IMPROVEMENTS Methodical and pragmatic approach to improving reliability Toledo 57% 2023 utilization System baselining • Preventative 2024 utilization¹ Focus areas maintenance 85% - 90% Reliability capital Lima 85% Isocracker reliability . Diesel hydrotreater uptime • 89% - 94% Isocracker projects on Coker, Isocracker and Alky units Reliability accelerator . Reliability accelerator program program Integration & optimization Superior 61% FCC start-up challenges Intermediate inventory bottleneck 80%-85% • De-inventory Bad actor program implementation HF Alky Unit operation Reliability & maintenance improvements Lloydminster Upgrader 90% • H-Oil reliability challenges 90%-95% Turnaround initiatives to support reliability ⚫ H-oil pump upgrades Electrical system improvements • Bad actor program implementation Reliability & maintenance management Competency & capability Downstream technical services Lloydminster Refinery 95% 2022 95%² 2021 95% 92% - 97% Note: See Advisory. 1) Reflects the expected utilization in months without turnaround activity. 2) Reflects 2022 Lloydminster Refinery utilization, excluding turnaround impacts. cenovus ENERGY 41#42DOWNSTREAM REFINING GROWING OPERATING MARGINS Reliability initiatives drives margin enhancement Lima Refinery $ billion Canadian & U.S. Refining operating margin¹ 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2024F 2025F US$12.00/bbl 2026F US$14.50/bbl 2027F ■US$18.00/bbl 2028F Improving reliability and expanding margin capture Note: See Advisory. 1) Specified financial measure. Prices representative of Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread as shown in appendices, net of RIN costs. cenovus ENERGY 12 42#43U.S. REFINING Directly integrated and consuming the barrels we produce U.S. Refining Illustrative U.S. Refining operating margin¹ Increased portfolio refining capacity by ~130 Mbbls/d and heavy conversion capacity by ~80 Mbbls/d. Safely and successfully restarted Toledo and Superior refineries. $ billion 3.0 2.0 1.0 Implementation of operations integrity systems across the network. 0.0 Developed a centralized technical services team. 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Initiatives contribute to increase reliability over the next five years WTI (US$/bbl) Net Chicago 3-2-1 crack WCS differential spread² (US$/bbl) (US$/bbl) $45 $12.00 $12.50 $60 $14.50 $14.50 $75 $18.00 $18.00 Note: See Advisory. 1) Specified financial measure. 2) Net crack spread based on Chicago 3-2-1 benchmark net of renewable identification numbers (RINS) expense. cenovus ENERGY 43#44DELIVERING ON OUR STRATEGY Focuses on safe, reliable and profitable operations Top-tier operating performance & sustainability leadership Disciplined capital investment focused on organic opportunities Improving margin capture and downstream reliability Cost leadership and continuous improvement across the base business cenovus ENERGY 44#45SUSTAINABILITY LEADERSHIP Rhona DelFrari Chief Sustainability Officer & EVP, Stakeholder Engagement#46OPERATING SAFELY AND SUSTAINABLY - CENOVUS'S ESG TARGETS Safety & asset integrity and good governance are foundational CLIMATE & GHG EMISSIONS Reduce absolute GHG emissions by 35% by year-end 2035. Includes milestone to reduce upstream methane emissions by 80% by year-end 2028. Reach long-term ambition for net zero emissions from operations by 2050. WATER STEWARDSHIP Reduce freshwater intensity by 20% in oil sands and in thermal operations by year-end 2030. BIODIVERSITY Reclaim 3,000 decommissioned well sites by year-end 2025. Restore more habitat than we use in the Cold Lake caribou range by year-end 2030. INDIGENOUS RECONCILIATION Achieve a minimum of $1.2B of spending with Indigenous businesses between 2019 and year-end 2025. Attain PAR¹ gold certification from the CCAB¹ by year-end 2025. INCLUSION & DIVERSITY Increase women in leadership roles to 30% by year-end 2030. Achieve at least 40% representation from designated groups among non-management Directors, including at least 30% women, by year-end 2025.2 Note: See Advisory. Targets include start year: 2019 for emissions, water intensity, well reclamation and Indigenous business spend; 2016 for caribou habitat restoration. Emissions reductions are in reference to scope 1 and 2 on a net equity basis. 1) Progressive Aboriginal Relations (PAR), Canadian Council of Aboriginal Business (CCAB). 2) Designated groups are defined as women, Indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities and members of visible minorities. cenovus ENERGY 46#47REDUCING ABSOLUTE EMISSIONS WHILE GROWING PRODUCTION Evaluating opportunities across our portfolio Total emissions (MMt CO₂e/yr) 30 25 20 20 15 10 5 Illustrative levers to achieve absolute GHG reduction target¹ 35% emissions reduction from a 2019 baseline.2 0 2035F unabated Optimization & methane reductions CCS Downstream energy efficiency Scope 2 & other abatement 2035F GHG target Note: See Advisory. 1) Assumes sufficient government support to enable capital investment. 2) The 2019 baseline has been adjusted to reflect material asset changes, including acquisitions and divestitures. Performance toward our target is measured against this adjusted baseline cenovus ENERGY 47#48MAPPING OUR EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Supporting the transition to a lower-carbon economy Near term 2024 Medium term 2025 - 2035 Supportive policy environment and technological advancements Long term 2035 - 2050 Methane reductions Pathways CO2 pipeline and hub¹ Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Small modular nuclear reactors (SMR) for oil sands¹ Downstream energy efficiencies Expanded cogeneration paired with CCS Note: See Advisory. 1) Assumes sufficient government support to enable capital investment. cenovus ENERGY 48#49DEMONSTRATING NEAR-TERM METHANE REDUCTIONS Target to reduce upstream methane emissions by 80% by year-end 2028¹ % of 2019 baseline 100% Upstream methane emissions 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ~62% reduction since 2019 baseline 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2028 Goal baseline Note: See Advisory. 1) From 2019 baseline. cenovus ENERGY EPOD APS FRIES Instrument air package with solar panels as part of our Conventional GHG reduction program. 49 W#50WORKING TOGETHER TO DECARBONIZE THE OIL SANDS Committed to responsible development and collaboration e Pathways Alliance Canada's largest oil sands producers working together on responsible development, including achieving our goal of net-zero emissions from operations. CCS foundational project Advancing multiple projects contributing to a reduction of ~25% of total oil sands annual emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050. Major regulatory applications for the CO, transportation hub and storage 2 network are being finalized. Canadian Natural cenovus ENERGY ConocoPhillips Canada* Working towards agreements with governments. Imperial MEG ENERGY SUNCOR Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Progressing work on other emissions reduction technologies 50#5140% 100% BENCHMARKING CANADA'S GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS Canada falling short on global CCUS incentives Global CCUS projects - percent public funding¹ 90% New development ~two-thirds coverage 80% 70% Canadian precedent 60% +EOR <25% costs for pre-2030 50% projects 30% 20% 10% 0% Sask Gov't/Boundary cenovus ENERGY Norway/Langskip U.S./AP SMR U.S. IRA @$85/T Canada/Quest Canada/ACTL (EOR) U.S. 45Q @$50/T Canada ITC (Pre-2030) Note: See Advisory. 1) BMO Capital Markets The Great Canadian CCUS Dilemma January 2023. Cost coverage estimates for U.S. IRA and Canada ITC based on 25-year project life. U.S./Petra Nova % Total Costs Funded I Canada Federal ITC AB Incentive (ACCIP) ITC <15% Net zero project costs Canada ITC (NZ 2050) Australia/Moomba 51 32#52PROTECTING AND RESTORING THE ECOSYSTEMS WHERE WE OPERATE WATER STEWARDSHIP Committed to developing water management plans for each of our operated assets by year-end 2025. Maintained target-level oil sands freshwater intensity of 0.12 barrels of water per barrel of oil equivalent; evaluating several reduction projects and alternative sources for thermal assets. BIODIVERSITY Reclaimed more than 2,600 well sites since 2019. Restored more than 1,400 km of linear forest features in the Cold Lake caribou range. Planted more than 800,000 trees in 2023 (4.6 million trees since 2016). Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY Kristy cenov 52 62#53ADVANCING INDIGENOUS RECONCILIATION Working closely with Indigenous communities near our operations $4.5 billion spent with Indigenous businesses since 2010 >$600 million spent with Indigenous businesses in 2023 100% First Nation Owned BERETTA 121 homes funded by Cenovus since 2020 cenovus ENERGY Funak Лучек Tyunk Тучек Truch Ree Tark Home meWrap Cenovus tours new homes as part of the Indigenous Housing Initiative. 53 53#54POSITIONING CENOVUS FOR LONG-TERM SUCCESS Strong sustainability performance is tied to strong business results and long-term financial resilience. We are focused on remaining competitive while advancing towards our ESG targets. Christina Lake cenovus ENERGY Former borrow pit 54 54#55FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK Kam Sandhar EVP & Chief Financial Officer#56FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK Strategic and disciplined approach drives value and returns Financial resilience Returns-focused capital allocation Enhance free funds flow Sustainably grow shareholder returns Reduce net debt to adjusted funds flow to ~1.0x @ at US$45 WTI. Committed to investment grade credit ratings of mid-BBB. Continuously improving our competitive cost structure. Invest in projects that generate returns at bottom of the cycle. Capital reinvestment rate ensures only best projects get funding. Inorganic opportunities evaluated consistently within the financial framework. Diversified revenues through asset and product mix. Optimize value through pipelines, logistics and marketing. Free funds flow enhanced at bottom of the cycle. Built a sustainable business at US$45 WTI. Dividend sustainable at US$45 WTI. Opportunistic share repurchases evaluated on mid-cycle pricing. cenovus ENERGY 56#57DELIVERING ON OUR COMMITMENTS Balanced capital allocation between deleveraging, shareholder returns and investments Long-term debt reduction of $6.9 billion since 2021 Shareholder returns of $6.7 billion since 2021 Capital investments of $10.6 billion since 2021 $ billion 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 40 4.0 2.0 0.0 Q1 2021 cenovus ENERGY Long-term debt 2022 $ billion 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2021 2022 2023 I Warrant repayment Share buybacks $ billion 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 58 2023 Variable dividend Base & preferred dividends ■2021 Capital investments 2022 2023 57#58RESILIENT BALANCE SHEET ENABLES FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY Minimal maturities until 2027 $ million 2024-2032: ~$3.6 billion in maturities 2,250 2,000 Low risk maturity profile¹ 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 2022 2023 2024 2025 S&P BBB- Positive cenovus ENERGY 2027 USD bonds 2028 2029 2032 CAD bonds 2037 Current credit ratings & outlooks Moody's Baa2 Positive 2039 2032-2052: ~$3.5 billion in maturities 2042 2043 Repurchased bonds 2047 Morningstar DBRS BBB (High) Stable Fitch BBB Stable 2052 Note: See Advisory. 1) CAD$ maturities converted to US$ using 0.74 CAD/USD exchange rate. 2) Annual interest expense on short-term and long-term borrowings since Q1 2021. Reduced annual interest expense² $330 million Targeting investment grade mid-BBB credit ratings Average debt tenor 12.5 years Average debt coupon of 4.46% 58#59APPROACHING BEST-IN-CLASS BALANCE SHEET Net debt as at December 31, 2023 was $5.1 billion $ billion 5.0 Net debt trajectory at US$75 WTI¹ 2025 D/CF1 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2023 year-end Low leverage enables capital flexibility² aml 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 CVE -0.1 -0.2 2024 -0.3 Net debt target of $4.0 billion grounded at 1.0x net debt to adjusted funds flow at US$45 WTI Liquidity of ~$8.9 billion³ at December 31, 2023 Note: See Advisory. 1) The amount of time required to reach the company's $4 billion net debt target is uncertain and subject to a number of factors, including commodity prices. 2) Data provided by Morgan Stanley Research December 11, 2023. Peers include IMO, CVX, CNQ, COP, DVN, HES, APA & SU. 3) Includes Cash & Cash Equivalents, committed credit facilities, uncommitted demand facilities as of December 31, 2023. cenovus ENERGY 59#60Shareholder returns Acquisitions & divestitures Maintain $4.0B of net debt Discretionary capital EFFF = AFF - committed capital - growth capital +/- A&D increasing to ~$2.0 billion per year in 2028. Acquisitions compete against organic uses of capital. Targeting 100% EFFF returns to shareholders. CAPITAL ALLOCATION PRIORITIES Committed to balance sheet strength and shareholder returns Committed capital Safe and reliable operations Sustaining capital Asset retirement obligations Growth capital Capital allocation priorities Maintain $4.0 billion net debt or 1x net debt to AFF at US$45 WTI. Base & preferred dividends . • Capital reinvestment ensures only the Capital leases best projects receive funding. • Share buybacks Base dividend growth capacity Variable dividends Note: See Advisory 1) Leverage ratio reflects Net Debt to Adjusted Funds Flow at the bottom of the cycle, or US$45 WTI. cenovus ENERGY 60 60#61SHAREHOLDER RETURNS PRINCIPLES Disciplined and opportunistic returns Committed capital Base dividend Sustainable @ US$45 WTI Grow at a pace with growth in the business Consistent and predictable year- by-year growth Five-year plan suggests capacity going to ~$2 billion Discretionary capital Excess free funds flow distribution Share buybacks Opportunistic and returns driven, not ratable Fits within our financial framework Preferred way to return capital to shareholders Evaluated based on intrinsic value @ US$60 WTI Variable dividend Option when share buybacks are less attractive Any excess free funds flow not used for share buybacks to be paid in variable dividends Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 61#62STRONG BASE DIVIDEND GROWTH AT US$45 WTI Sustaining capital and dividends well covered at the bottom of the cycle Cash from operating activities fully covers $ billion commitments at US$45 WTI $ billion Significantly growing dividend capacity at US$45 WTI 6.0 5.0 4.0 2.5 2.0 Dividends ARO/Lease 1.5 liabilities 3.0 Sustaining 1.0 capital 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Current dividend Dividend capacity 2028F Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY (2028F) Capacity to grow dividend 100% over five years at US$45 WTI Bottom of the cycle cash from operating activities ~$6 billion in 2028 62 62#63DRIVING SUSTAINABLE REDUCTIONS IN OUR COST STRUCTURE Improving business resilience and lowering breakevens G&A and enterprise upgrades¹ $ million 1,000 G&A IT upgrades 800 600 400 200 $/BOE 15.00 13.00 11.00 9.00 7.00 Operating costs per BOE² $/bbl Downstream Upstream 50.00 0 5.00 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2024F Disciplined execution drives G&A costs down¹ 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 2024 estimated WTI breakeven³ 20.00 2028F CVE Operating costs per BOE decrease ~15% Sustaining capital Dividend Among Canadian large cap peers Lowest breakeven Note: See Advisory. 1) General & administrative (G&A) excludes long-term incentive costs. 2) At US$75 WTI. 3) Based on external analysis provided to Cenovus by CIBC Capital Markets. Peers include IMO, MEG, CNQ and SU. cenovus ENERGY 63#64DELIVERING ON OUR COMMITMENTS Continued balance in capital allocation, shareholder returns and investments DISCIPLINED CAPITAL INVESTMENTS GROWING CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES DRIVING HIGHER SHAREHOLDER RETURNS Growing cash from operating activities¹ Investing in our business $ billion $ billion 6.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 00 0.0 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Cash from operating activities Sustaining capital Growth capital Note: See Advisory. 1) At US$75 WTI. 2023 cash from operating activities was $7.4 billion. cenovus ENERGY 64#65OPTIMIZING THE BASE BUSINESS DRIVES HIGHER RETURNS Generating returns through the cycle Cumulative capital investments of ~$21 billion, ~70% sustaining over the five-year plan Cost structure improves on average in upstream, downstream and G&A Cumulative free funds flow ~$32 billion at US$75 WTI $ million 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Free funds flow through the cycle¹ 0 2024F 2025F Note: See Advisory. 1) Non-GAAP financial measure. Free funds flow in 2023 was $4.5 billion. Cash from operating activities in 2023 was $7.4 billion. cenovus ENERGY 2026F 2027F 2028F US$45 WTI US$60 WTI US$75 WTI US$100 WTI 65#66CENOVUS'S VALUE PROPOSITION Disciplined capital allocation, safe & reliable operations, sustainability leader Conservative costs & capital structure Resilient balance sheet approaching $4.0B net debt. Competitive operating & sustaining capital costs reducing operating costs by ~15%.1 Efficient & disciplined investment Adjusted funds flow of ~$6.0B at US$45 WTI¹,2 ~$12.0B at US$75WTI.² Highly efficient capital generates growth to ~950,000 bbls/d by 2028. Increasing shareholder returns Growing base dividend capacity to ~$2.0B² double-digit base dividend growth. Significant excess free funds flow going to 100% shareholder returns. Note: See Advisory. 1) Forecasted in 2028. 2) Non-GAAP financial measure. cenovus ENERGY 99 66#67APPENDIX cenovus ENERGY#68COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS US$45 WTI scenario US$/bbl unless otherwise stated 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Brent $47.00 $47.00 $47.00 $47.00 $47.00 WTI $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 WTI-WCS differential $12.50 $12.50 $12.50 $12.50 $12.50 WCS $32.50 $32.50 $32.50 $32.50 $32.50 Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 RINS $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 AECO (C$/Mcf) FX (US$/C$) $1.85 $1.85 $1.85 $1.85 $1.85 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 70 70#69COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS US$60 WTI scenario US$/bbl unless otherwise stated 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Brent $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 WTI $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 WTI-WCS differential $14.50 $14.50 $14.50 $14.50 $14.50 WCS $45.50 $45.50 $45.50 $45.50 $45.50 Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread $18.50 $18.50 $18.50 $18.50 $18.50 RINS $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 AECO (C$/Mcf) FX (US$/C$) $2.27 $2.27 $2.27 $2.27 $2.27 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 71#70COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS US$75 WTI scenario US$/bbl unless otherwise stated 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Brent $81.00 $81.00 $81.00 $81.00 $81.00 WTI $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 WTI-WCS differential $18.00 $18.00 $18.00 $18.00 $18.00 WCS $57.00 $57.00 $57.00 $57.00 $57.00 Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 RINS $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 AECO (C$/Mcf) FX (US$/C$) $2.65 $2.65 $2.65 $2.65 $2.65 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 22 72#71COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS US$100 WTI scenario US$/bbl unless otherwise stated 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Brent $106.00 $106.00 $106.00 $106.00 $106.00 WTI $100.00 $100.00 $100.00 $100.00 $100.00 WTI-WCS differential $18.00 $18.00 $18.00 $18.00 $18.00 WCS $82.00 $82.00 $82.00 $82.00 $82.00 Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread $29.00 $29.00 $29.00 $29.00 $29.00 RINS $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 AECO (C$/Mcf) FX (US$/C$) $2.65 $2.65 $2.65 $2.65 $2.65 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 73#72COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS 2024 budget US$/bbl unless otherwise stated 2024F Brent $79.00 WTI $75.00 WTI-WCS differential $17.00 WCS $58.00 Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread $21.00 RINS $4.50 $2.80 AECO (C$/Mcf) FX (US$/C$) Note: See Advisory. cenovus ENERGY 0.73 74 14#73Advisory Oil and Gas Information Natural gas volumes are converted to barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) on the basis of six Mcf to one barrel (bbl). BOE may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one bbl to six Mcf is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil compared with natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency conversion ratio of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis is not an accurate reflection of value. Specified Financial Measures Certain financial measures in this document do not have a standardized meaning as prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Accounting Standards including Operating Margin, Adjusted Funds Flow, and Free Funds Flow. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. These measures are described and presented in order to provide shareholders and potential investors with additional measures for analyzing our ability to generate funds to finance our operations and information regarding our liquidity. Unless otherwise indicated, forward-looking measures are based on internal forecasted pricing and projected volumes for the periods indicated and on the assumptions inherent therein. In addition, forward-looking measures, by their nature, are subject to the risk factors, assumptions and uncertainties specified under the heading "Forward-looking Information" below and described in other documents Cenovus files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities (available on SEDAR+ at sedarplus.ca, on EDGAR at sec.gov and Cenovus's website at cenovus.com). This additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. For further details on these measures, see the "Specified Financial Measures Advisory" located in Cenovus's Management Discussion & Analysis for the period ended December 31, 2023 (Annual MD&A) which is incorporated by reference herein and available on Cenovus's SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca. Forward-looking Information This presentation contains forward-looking statements and other information (collectively "forward-looking information") about Cenovus's current expectations, estimates and projections, made in light of Cenovus's experience and perception of historical trends. Although Cenovus believes that the expectations represented by such forward-looking information are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. This forward-looking information is identified by words such "achieve", "aim", "ambition", "anticipate", "believe", "capacity", "committed", "continue", "drive", "could", "estimate", "expect", "F", "focus", "forecast", "future", "maintain”, “may”, “objective”, “opportunities", "plan", "position", “potential”, “"prioritize”, “progress", "strive", "target" and "will" or similar expressions and includes suggestions of future outcomes, including, but not limited to, statements about: general and specific priorities; reserves life index; production, refining and upgrading capacity; growing shareholder returns including acquiring shares under the normal-course issuer bid (NCIB) and variable dividends; maintaining capital discipline while growing total shareholder returns beyond the base dividend in accordance with the capital allocation framework; allocation of Excess Free Funds Flow to shareholder returns and net debt reduction; Net Debt, long-term debt and maintaining the net debt floor; operating performance and sustainability leadership; cost leadership; financial discipline; shareholder value and returns through the capital allocation framework; Cenovus's geographic diversification, physical integration and market access; Free Funds Flow generation and allocation; Net Debt to Adjusted Funds Flow Ratio; Adjusted Funds Flow; Operating Margin; Netbacks; flexibility in both high and low commodity price environments; funding near-term cash requirements; managing capital structure; dividends of any kind; meeting payment obligations; debt levels; global population growth; rise of global GDP; global demand; expected 2024 production; five-year view of upstream production;#74expected refining and upgrading capacity and production and throughput; capital investments; optionality for ex- Alberta egress; value optimization and marketing; realizing the full value of our integrated business; supporting long- term value for Cenovus; safety performance; downstream reliability and profitability; cost leadership; advocating for our company and industry; executing major projects such as West White Rose, SeaRose ALE, Narrows Lake tie- back at Christina Lake, and Foster Creek Optimization on time and on budget; delivering first oil from the West White Rose project in 2026; achieving peak production at West White Rose in 2028; being best in class operators; meeting targets for our five ESG focus areas; anticipated incremental heavy oil uplift; reserve life; margin uplift; heavy oil discounts; additional LNG egress; internal rate of return on investments; sustaining capital efficiency in Oil Sands and at Sunrise; enhancing margins; improvement of Lloydminster Thermals and Sunrise SOR; annual value created through technology initiatives; drilling of exploration wells; optionality to reduce costs and accelerate development from short-cycle assets; improvement of cost structure; conventional production growth; gas weighted growth of ~25,000 BOE/d by 2028; operating costs per barrel of production; increased reliability and profitability over the next five years; improved utilization rates; the full availability of capacity at U.S. refineries to capture more margin; the impact of turnaround activity on utilization rates; costs savings and margin enhancements; maximizing long term profitability of our assets; our 2024 capital investment budget; returning incremental value to shareholders through share buybacks and/or variable dividends in accordance with the capital allocation framework; safety performance; sustainability and sustainability leadership; targets for ESG focus areas including climate & GHG emissions, water stewardship, biodiversity, indigenous reconciliation and inclusion and diversity; reduction of scope 1 & 2 GHG absolute emissions; near, medium and long-term emission reductions targets and methane reduction targets; the Pathways Alliance foundational project; government support and incentives in emissions reductions projects such as the Pathways CO2 pipeline and hub and small modular nuclear reactors for oil sands; timing with respect to the regulatory filings for Cenovus's carbon capture and storage project; resiliency; reduction of Net Debt; maintaining credit ratings; investment in projects that generate returns at bottom-cycle; diversification of revenues; optimize value through pipelines, logistics and marketing; enhanced cash flow through projects in heavy oil; low risk maturity profile; improving business resilience through increasing scale and controlling costs and operating costs per barrel; optimization of the business through the five-year plan, including cumulative capital investments, reducing operating, sustaining capital and general and administrative costs and growing dividend capacity. Developing forward-looking information involves reliance on a number of assumptions and consideration of certain risks and uncertainties, some of which are specific to Cenovus and others that apply to the industry generally. The factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking information is based include, but are not limited to: forecast bitumen, crude oil and natural gas, natural gas liquids, condensate and refined products prices, light heavy crude oil price differentials; Cenovus's ability to realize the anticipated benefits and anticipated cost synergies of acquisitions; the accuracy of any assessments undertaken in connection with acquisitions; forecast production and crude throughput volumes and timing thereof; projected capital investment levels, the flexibility of capital spending plans and associated sources of funding; the absence of significant adverse changes to government policies, legislation and regulations (including related to climate change), Indigenous relations, interest rates, inflation, foreign exchange rates, competitive conditions and the supply and demand for bitumen, crude oil and natural gas, natural gas liquids, condensate and refined products; the political, economic and social stability of jurisdictions in which Cenovus operates; sustainable reductions in costs structure that will enhance margins; efficient turnaround activity, which will impact utilization rates; the absence of significant disruption of operations, including as a result of harsh weather, natural disaster, accident, civil unrest or other similar events; the prevailing climatic conditions in Cenovus's operating locations; achievement of further cost reductions and sustainability thereof; applicable royalty regimes, including expected royalty rates; future improvements in availability of product transportation capacity; increase to Cenovus's share price and market capitalization over the long-term; opportunities to purchase shares for cancellation at prices acceptable to Cenovus; the sufficiency of cash balances, internally generated cash flows, existing credit facilities, management of Cenovus's asset portfolio and access to capital and insurance coverage to pursue and fund future investments, sustainability and development plans and dividends, including any increase thereto; production from Cenovus's Conventional segment providing an economic hedge for the natural gas required as a fuel source at both Cenovus's oil sands and refining operations; realization of expected capacity to store within Cenovus's oil sands reservoirs barrels not yet produced, including that Cenovus will be able to time production and sales of our inventory at later dates when demand has increased, pipeline and/or storage capacity has improved and future crude oil differentials have narrowed; the WTI-WCS differential in Alberta remains largely tied to global supply#75factors and heavy crude processing capacity; the ability of Cenovus's refining capacity, dynamic storage, existing pipeline commitments, crude-by-rail loading capacity and financial hedge transactions to partially mitigate a portion of Cenovus's WCS crude oil volumes against wider differentials; Cenovus's ability to produce from oil sands facilities on an unconstrained basis; estimates of quantities of oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids from properties and other sources not currently classified as proved; the accuracy of accounting estimates and judgments; Cenovus's ability to obtain necessary regulatory and partner approvals; the successful, timely and cost effective implementation of capital projects, development projects or stages thereof; Cenovus's ability to meet current and future obligations; estimated abandonment and reclamation costs, including associated levies and regulations applicable thereto; Cenovus's ability to obtain and retain qualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost-efficient manner; Cenovus's ability to complete acquisitions and dispositions, including with desired transaction metrics and within expected timelines; Cenovus's ability to achieve long-term financial resilience through strong sustainability; the accuracy of climate scenarios and assumptions, including third party data on which Cenovus relies; ability to access and implement all technology and equipment necessary to achieve expected future results, including in respect of climate and GHG emissions targets and ambitions and the commercial viability and scalability of emission reduction strategies and related technology and products; collaboration with the government, Pathways Alliance and other industry organizations; alignment of realized WCS and WCS prices used to calculate the variable payment to BP Canada Energy Group ULC (bp Canada); market and business conditions; forecast inflation and other assumptions inherent in Cenovus's 2024 guidance available on cenovus.com and as set out below; the availability of Indigenous owned or operated businesses and Cenovus's ability to retain them; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the filings Cenovus makes with securities regulatory authorities. 2024 guidance dated December 13, 2023, and available on cenovus.com, assumes: Brent prices of US$79.00 per barrel, WTI prices of US$75.00 per barrel; WCS of US$58.00 per barrel; WTI-WCS differential of US$17.00 per barrel; AECO natural gas prices of $2.80 per Mcf; Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread of US$21.00 per barrel; and an exchange rate of $0.73 US$/C$. The risk factors and uncertainties that could cause Cenovus's actual results to differ materially from the forward- looking information, include, but are not limited to: Cenovus's ability to realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions in a timely manner or at all; unforeseen or underestimated liabilities associated with acquisitions; risks associated with acquisitions and dispositions; Cenovus's ability to access or implement some or all of the technology necessary to efficiently and effectively operate its assets and achieve expected future results including in respect of climate and GHG emissions targets and ambitions and the commercial viability and scalability of emission reduction strategies and related technology and products; the development and execution of implementing strategies to meet climate and GHG emissions targets and ambitions; the effect of new significant shareholders; volatility of and other assumptions regarding commodity prices; the duration of any market downturn; foreign exchange risk, including related to agreements denominated in foreign currencies; Cenovus's continued liquidity being sufficient to sustain operations through a prolonged market downturn; WTI-WCS differential will remain largely tied to global supply factors and heavy crude processing capacity; Cenovus's ability to realize the expected impacts of its capacity to store within its oil sands reservoirs barrels not yet produced, including possible inability to time production and sales at later dates when pipeline and/or storage capacity and crude oil differentials have improved; the effectiveness of Cenovus's risk management program; the accuracy of cost estimates regarding commodity prices, currency and interest rates; lack of alignment of realized WCS prices and WCS prices used to recalculate the variable payment to bp Canada; product supply and demand; the accuracy of Cenovus's share price and market capitalization assumptions; market competition, including from alternative energy sources; risks inherent in Cenovus's marketing operations, including credit risks, exposure to counterparties and partners, including the ability and willingness of such parties to satisfy contractual obligations in a timely manner; risks inherent in the operation of Cenovus's crude- by-rail terminal, including health, safety and environmental risks; Cenovus's ability to maintain desirable ratios of Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, Net Debt to Adjusted Funds Flow and Operating Margins; Cenovus's ability to access various sources of debt and equity capital, generally, and on acceptable terms; Cenovus's ability to finance growth and sustaining capital expenditures; changes in credit ratings applicable to Cenovus or any of its securities; changes to Cenovus's dividend plans; Cenovus's ability to utilize tax losses in the future; the accuracy of Cenovus's reserves, future production and future net revenue estimates; the accuracy of Cenovus's accounting estimates and judgements; Cenovus's ability to replace and expand crude oil and natural gas reserves; the costs to acquire#76exploration rights, undertake geological studies, appraisal drilling and project developments; potential requirements under applicable accounting standards for impairment or reversal of estimated recoverable amounts of some or all of Cenovus's assets or goodwill from time to time; Cenovus's ability to maintain its relationships with its partners and to successfully manage and operate its integrated operations and business; reliability of Cenovus's assets including in order to meet production targets; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and Refining processes; the occurrence of unexpected events resulting in operational interruptions, including at facilities operated by our partners or third parties, such as blowouts, fires, explosions, railcar incidents or derailments, aviation incidents, iceberg collisions, gaseous leaks, migration of harmful substances, loss of containment, releases or spills, including releases or spills from offshore facilities and shipping vessels at terminals or hubs and as a result of pipeline or other leaks, corrosion, epidemics or pandemics, and catastrophic events, including, but not limited to, war, adverse sea conditions, extreme weather events, natural disasters, acts of activism, vandalism and terrorism, and other accidents or hazards that may occur at or during transport to or from commercial or industrial sites and other accidents or similar events; refining and marketing margins; cost escalations, including inflationary pressures on operating costs, such as labour, materials, natural gas and other energy sources used in oil sands processes and downstream operations and increased insurance deductibles or premiums; the cost and availability of equipment necessary to Cenovus's operations; potential failure of products to achieve or maintain acceptance in the market; risks associated with the energy industry's and Cenovus's reputation, social license to operate and litigation related thereto; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in operating, constructing or modifying Refining or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in producing, transporting or refining bitumen and/or crude oil into petroleum and chemical products; risks associated with technology and equipment and its application to Cenovus's business, including potential cyberattacks; geo-political and other risks associated with Cenovus's international operations; risks associated with climate change and Cenovus's assumptions relating thereto; the timing and the costs of well and pipeline construction; Cenovus's ability to access markets and to secure adequate and cost effective product transportation including sufficient pipeline, crude-by-rail, marine or alternate transportation, including to address any gaps caused by constraints in the pipeline system or storage capacity; availability of, and Cenovus's ability to attract and retain, critical and diverse talent; possible failure to obtain and retain qualified leadership and personnel, and equipment in a timely and cost efficient manner; changes in labour demographics and relationships, including with any unionized workforces; unexpected abandonment and reclamation costs; changes in the regulatory frameworks, permits and approvals in any of the locations in which Cenovus operates or to any of the infrastructure upon which it relies; government actions or regulatory initiatives to curtail energy operations or pursue broader climate change agendas; changes to regulatory approval processes and land use designations, royalty, tax, environmental, GHG, carbon, climate change and other laws or regulations, or changes to the interpretation of such laws and regulations, as adopted or proposed, the impact thereof and the costs associated with compliance; the expected impact and timing of various accounting pronouncements, rule changes and standards on Cenovus's business, its financial results and the December 31, 2023 audited Consolidated Financial Statements and accompanying notes; changes in general economic, market and business conditions; the impact of production agreements among OPEC and non-OPEC members; the political, social and economic conditions in the jurisdictions in which Cenovus operates or supplies; the status of Cenovus's relationships with the communities in which it operates, including with Indigenous communities; the occurrence of unexpected events such as protests, pandemics, war, terrorist threats and the instability resulting therefrom; risks associated with existing and potential future lawsuits, shareholder proposals and regulatory actions against Cenovus and the allocation of free cash flow to reducing net debt to between $4B and $9B and the assumptions inherent in Cenovus's 2024 guidance available on cenovus.com and other risks identified under "Risk Management and Risk Factors" and "Advisory" in Cenovus's Annual MD&A. In addition, there are risks that the effect of actions taken by Cenovus in implementing its targets, commitments and ambitions for ESG focus areas may have a negative impact on our existing business, growth plans and future results from operations. The guidance in respect of Cenovus's expectations of future periods in this presentation may be considered to be a financial outlook for the purposes of applicable Canadian securities laws. Such information is based on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and proposed courses of action, based on management's assessment of the relevant information currently available, and which may become available in the future. These projections constitute forward-looking statements and are based on several material factors and assumptions set out above. Actual results may differ significantly from such projections. See above for a discussion of certain risks#77that could cause actual results to vary. The financial outlook contained in this presentation has been approved by management as of the date of this presentation. Readers are cautioned that any such financial outlook contained herein should not be used for purposes other than those for which it is disclosed herein. Cenovus and its management believe that the financial outlook contained in this presentation has been prepared based on assumptions that are reasonable in the circumstances, reflecting management's best estimates and judgments, and represents, to the best of management's knowledge and opinion, expected and targeted financial results. However, because this information is highly subjective, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information as Cenovus's actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Except as required by applicable securities laws, Cenovus disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists are not exhaustive and are made as at the date hereof. Events or circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated or projected and expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking information. For additional information regarding Cenovus's material risk factors, the assumptions made, and risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from the anticipated results, refer to the "Risk Management and Risk Factors" and "Advisory" in Cenovus's Annual MD&A which is incorporated by reference herein and to the risk factors, assumptions and uncertainties described in other documents Cenovus files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities in Canada (available on SEDAR+ at sedarplus.ca, on EDGAR at sec.gov and Cenovus's website at cenovus.com).

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Q3 2020 Investor Presentation image

Q3 2020 Investor Presentation

Energy

New Fortress Energy Q3 2023 Investor Presentation image

New Fortress Energy Q3 2023 Investor Presentation

Energy

Helix Energy Solutions Company Update image

Helix Energy Solutions Company Update

Energy

2nd Quarter 2020 Investor Update image

2nd Quarter 2020 Investor Update

Energy

Helix Energy Solutions 2006 Annual Report image

Helix Energy Solutions 2006 Annual Report

Energy

Investor Presentation image

Investor Presentation

Energy

Investor Presentation image

Investor Presentation

Energy

Premium Rock, Returns, Runway 3Q 2022 Earnings image

Premium Rock, Returns, Runway 3Q 2022 Earnings

Energy