#1dewan nasional Indonesian Climate Change Initiatives and Green Economy perubahan Farhan Helmy Secretary of Mitigation Working Group National Council on Climate Change -Indonesia (DNPI) Jakarta, 17 January 2011 iklim 2007/10/02#22 Outline Climate Change Policy: International Context and National Response Low Carbon Initiatives and Exercises: Lesson Learnt from the Ground Institutional Dynamics . DNPI Initiatives Show Case: Eat Kalimantan Low Carbon Strategies#3Assessment 1: The challenge to integrate international and national mitigation efforts: Some of the outstanding key issues International • Level National Level • . • Pledges by developing country Parties (commitment) including its instruments Range of emission allowances of developing country Parties Registry and matching processes including its linkages with national level MRV guidelines that would be developed by the Convention, its required processes at international and national levels, and level of support provided for developing countries • Climate finance ● • . NAMAs key issues that should be solved in wide spectrum basis, including to develop a national forest reference emission level and forest reference level National integrated processes for NAMAS establishment Proposed financing scheme for NAMAS Proposed policies, measures and incentives MRV:(1). Possible coverage for MRV and its required mechanism (2). Identification of such associated required tools (3). Required national processess and its linkages to the UNFCCC processes (4). Institutionalization (5). Assignment of associated required institution Sources: Dialog Pokja Mitigasi, as compiled by Hardiv, 2011#4Assessmen 2: Emission Reduction Targets. Indonesian emission is expected to increase from 1.72 to 2.95 GtCO2e (2000-2020). Proposed National Action Plan on GHG Emission Reduction (RAN-GRK) consist of 70 programs distributed among various sectors. Emission Reduction Plan (Giga ton CO2e) Sectors 26% 15% Agency Forestry and Peat 0.672 Waste (total 41%) 0,367 0.048 0.030 Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Environment Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Environment Agriculture 0.008 0.003 Industry 0.001 0.004 Ministry of Industry Energy and 0.038 0.018 Ministry of Transportation, Transportation Ministry of Energy and Mining, Ministry of Public Works 0.767 0.422#5Emission rate Assessment 3: Related Key Issues should be resolved in wide spectrum basis through framing the dialogue, stakeholder engagement and consensus, and MRV as a governance instrument Historical reference (HR) Past trend and current BAU Emision Reference Level (RL) 26% emission status Domestically financed NAMAS Future emission scenario (BAU) 15% Internationally supported NAMAS 2005 (Baseyear) Credited NAMAS NAMA(s) POTENTIALS Commercially available Credited NAMAS technologies Environmentally sound policy and regulations 2020 (Baseline) Time NAMAS - National Appropriate Mitigation Actions Framing the Dialogue To establish BAU baseline which is multi-sectoral business as usual as a basis for national mitigation actions: domestic (26%), international seeking support(15%) and credited NAMAS To select effective and efficient mitigation actions(least abatement cost) through integrated and inclusive processes at national and sub- national levels. To establish effective and efficient financial schema:public-private, market/non-market "Proof of Concept" in the framework of low carbon economy (LCE)/sustainable development Stakeholder Engagement and Consensus on policy and technical issues Ministries/line agencies, NGOs, etc. Governance MRV as a means to measure commitment and performance MRV as a means to facilitate coordination and planning, i.e database development#6GHG Emissions Assessment 4: Translating the Convention into National Development Plan .. Past Trend and Current State of GHG Emissions Multi Sectoral Baseline Future Path of GHG Emissions Sector #1 Sector # 2 Sector # 3 Sector # 4 Sector # Sector #n -- Mitigation Actions of Each Sectors Article 3.4 of the Convention The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable development. Policies and measures to protect climate system against human-induced change should be integrated with national development programmes, taking into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures and address climate change To Ti Tn National integrated process in meeting the national emission reduction target based on cost effectiveness & its implementability level. HHS-14-02-2011 [Time] Integrate Climate Change Program into National Development Plan National integrated processes in meeting the national emission reduction target based on cost effectiveness and its implementability level Meeting the national emission reduction target as a contribution to global coherent mitigation efforts through NAMAS has been part of other pillars: in poverty eradication, job creation and social and economic development Institutional arrangement at national and sub- national level#7Assessment 5: Submission: Proposed NAMAs to be implemented in Indonesia, (FCCC/AWGLCA/2011/INF.1) ■ Indonesia is the first developing country in the world to voluntary reduce its GHG emissions up to 26 per cent by 2020. ■ The emission reduction would be achieved through, inter alia: - - - - 1 Sustainable peat land management; A reduction in the rate of deforestation and land degradation; The development of carbon sequestration projects in forestry and agriculture; The promotion of energy efficiency; The development of alternative and renewable energy sources; A reduction in solid and liquid waste; - Shifting to low-emission modes of transport. ■ To translate this commitment, Indonesia is now working on national emission reduction action plan, aimed at achieving the aforementioned emissions reduction, would be equipped with a measurable, reportable and verifiable system in order to ensure that each action receives the necessary level of funding#8Assessment 6: Emission reduction plan has been integrated into national development plan through inter-sectoral and stakeholders consultation processes Mid-term National and Provincial Development Plan (2010-2014) Activity Programs Inter-sectoral coordination meetings facilitated by the National Development Climate Change Mitigation Activity Programs SELECTION Planning Agency (Bappenas) Main Supporting 25 meetings, 42 returned inputs Activities Activities Source: Bappenas (2011)#9Assessment 7: Time frame of NAMAS is included in the long-term and mid-term national and sub-national development plan covering three periods of plan 2005 2004 GHG National Action Plan 2010 2012 Development Plan RPJP 2020 2025 2009 2014 2019 2025 RPJM 1 RPJM 3 RPJM 4 RPJM 2 2010-2012 Period of preparation RPJP = The long-term national development plan, RPJM = Mid-term national development plan Source: Bappenas (2011)#10Interconnected and isolated power system Power Sector There is a need to establish integrated national BAU baseline as a basis to derive emission target reduction trough top-down and bottom-up processes National Business as Usual Baseline / Aggregated BaU Baseline Cement Pulp & pPaper Iron & Steel Textile Industry Sub-sector Energy Sector Land Based Sector Other Targeted Sector 2nd Layer Industry Transport Other REDD+ Sector Sector Activity By modes and sub-national levels Sub-national levels 3rd t Layer 1st Layer I#11The Challenge in integrating national GHG Inventory Report into MRV system as part of national mitigation actions achievement National GHG inventory sectors Other Energy Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Other Land Use (AFOLU) Agriculture, Forestry, and Waste Source: IPCC Guidelines, 2006 Existing Institutional Arrangement Ministry of Environment (MOE) is a focal point for National Communication reporting to be reported through National Council on Climate Change (DNPI) National Planning Board (Bappenas) is responsible for developing National Action. Plan on GHG reductions (supposed t be NAMAS) through ministerial coordination. processes National GHG Inventory System (SIGN) is under development and will be integrated into national MRV system. Potentials for integrated System • • The planned to establish REDD+, MRV and financial agencies New Act on Geographic Information among other regulations.#12Ministry of Forestry International relationship Forest production Tasks Department Land use/land use change Land cover/land cover change Biomass above ground ✓ Assessment 8: The various MRV capabilities among agencies show that another challenge in developing integrated system, including technical capacities, resources as well as institutional development. Planologi Forest protection and natural conservation Land rehabilitation and social forestry degradation and climate change control Degradatino and climante change control International relations M Forest conservation Biomass below ground Deadwood Litter Soil/peat ✓ ✓ ✓ Carbon enhancement ✓ " SFM ✓ Degradation ✓ ✓ Compile inventory ✓ ✓ REDD+ projects International ✓ ✓ ✓ R " Domestic ✓ ✓ " Donor ✓ Source: Satgas REDD+(2010) 45 ✓ Remote sensing ✓ ✓ A ✓ ✓ ✓ 41 Soil research Institute Bakos- KLH Lapan MoA Bappenas urtanal DNPI BPN BKPRN National resources and environment ✓ All agencies (base- line services) All agencies All agencies All agencies#13Assessment 9: Indonesia has collected a lot of data, but significant gaps exist to reach national monitoring system. Also uncertainty of the available data, especially on peat. Complete Moderate-high Moderate No data Low-moderate Data type Assess- ment criteria Land cover change Forest management Biomass above ground Biomass below ground Forest types Forest growth Quantity/sample size Geographical reach Quality Improvement levers SOURCE: IAFCP, ICRAF, DNPI Semi-annual reporting ☐ Fire monito- ring data ■ SAR/Lidar to Greater details ▾ covering all districts Larger data samples Larger data samples More up-to- date data from Data needed for APL land and East Indonesia ■ Soil sampling compared to ongoing sampling approach to establish avoid cloud problems Ground truthing and more high mgmt database resolution photos for verification and identifi-cation of forest type national forest Reporting protocols to ensure con- sistent data collection Destructive sampling is the most accurate method protocols to guide collection ▪ sampling methods and ensure consistency high resolution remote sensing Ground truthing for validation Long-term monthly rain- fall and temperature data DEM data ☐ Soil data Solar radiation data#14Data uncertainties stem may stem from: assumption, methods, technology used, et, i.e emission from peat. The Realities: Differences in emission estimates remain LULUCF Peatland as different organizations use different methodologies and sources N/A Documented numbers do not exist MtCO₂e, 2005 LULUCF IFCA SNC 2009² 290 Worldbank1 CAIT-WRI Hooijer N/A Fires 496 30 538 1,138 N/A Wetlands Int. N/A 0 Van der Werft N/A CIFOR DNPI² 528 743 451 470 548 1,260 1,260 1,271 Peat decomposition N/A N/A N/A 379 300 Total 526 496 290 830 1,120 600 538 1.860 2,398 600 500 500 470 1,138 1,800 600 528 1,870 2,398 743 848 1,591 1 Using IFCA, WRI and Hooijer et al. 2006 as main sources 2 Net emission approach Hooijer et al 2006 as a baselinDaN Paking 2010) % of emissions might be caused by soil/roots respiration SOURCE: IFCA; Ministry of Forestry Indonesia; Houghton; Worldbank; CAIT-WRI; Hooijer 2006; SNC 2009, Indonesia GHG Emission Cost Curve Working Drat Last Modified 7/3/2009 8:24:24 PM Printed 6/30/2009 9:15:07 AM#15100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Assessment 10. MRV applications based on international investment in carbon projects, CDM, and bilateral arrangement in Indonesia 0% Canada Denmark Germany Japan Multilateral Netherlands Source: DNPI (2011) Sweden Switzerland UK Snapshots Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): Afforestation Solar • PFCs and SF6 N20 · Methane avoidance • Landfill gas. ■ Hydro ■Geothermal ■Fugitive Fossil fuel switch EE own generation ■EE supply side ■EE Industry ■Cement Biomass energy • 157 projects have already got LoA 72 registered projects 25 new proposal (under evaluation) Feasibility Study for Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism funded by Japan Government: • 2010: 30 projects in 13 countries, 8 projects in Indonesia 2011:50 projects in 18 countries, 18 projects in Indonesia Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) • • . voluntary carbon market) is a carbon market not constituted by compliance to reduce emission but by the voluntary intention of the buyer to reduce its carbon footprint More than 20 Indonesian projects in VCM pipeline and all employ Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) methodologies. Total VER that already issued is more than 1,000,000 tVER. Other Project Initiative. Katingan, etc.#16Assessment 12: Matching the Needs: Options and on-going DNPI's initiatives Tier International 3 2 1 National/sub-national t1 Time • MRV should be incorporated into national mitigation actions framework Mitigation action across sectors, sub-national level Resource allocation and tracking • Harmonization and Synchronization with national and global reporting • Trustworthy and verifiable information for further policy and market uptake/buy-in Comprehensive step-wise approaches • Assessment of lesson learned (from lack, gaps, mismatches) • Assessment of institutional and legal arrangements as a basis to further MRV agency development MRV "Proof of Concept" DNPI Initiatives Indonesia Climate Change Center (ICCC) • Bilateral cooperation with Japan#1717 Outline Climate Change Policy: International Context and National Response Low Carbon Initiatives and Exercises: Lesson Learnt from the Ground Institutional Dynamics . DNPI Initiatives Show Case: Eat Kalimantan Low Carbon Strategies#18Indonesia is charting a green growth plan which will ensure sustainable economic growth with a smaller carbon footprint NAT COPENHAGEN COP15 UNITED NATIONS CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2009 "We are devising an energy mix policy that will reduce our emissions by 26% by 2020. With international support, we are confident we can reduce emissions by as much as 41%" 18 Three provinces have responded by developing green growth strategies with DNPI CO₂ mitigation Economic develop- ment Low Carbon Growth Adaptation Institutional enablers#19The potential to reduce emissions is representing up to 5 percent of global abatement needed Projected abatement potential Million tons, CO₂e 3,260 1,161 Indonesia has a total reduction potential of 2,305 MtCO2e, 70% of its projected business as usual emissions of 3,260 MtCO2e in 2030 609 225 106 187 61 955 56 Total LULUCF Peat Power Agriculture Transport Petroleum Other abatement Remaining emissions 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent of total 50 26 10 LO 5 4 3 reduction potential 19 SOURCE: DNPI Indonesia GHG abatement cost curve#20Detailed low carbon growth strategies have been developed Low-Carbon Growth Plans Indonesia dewan INDONESIA'S GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT COST CURVE Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim, Indonesia July 2010 Jambi Creating low carbon prosperity in Jambi dewan Kalteng Menciptakan Kesejahteraan Rendah Karbon di Kalimantan Tengah dewan Action Kaltim East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy Key elements of LCGS Sustainable economic development strategy Competitive strengths and weaknesses ■ New sources of growth Sector strategies ■ Abatement opportunities, pilot projects, policies required ■ Palm oil, forestry, agriculture, coal, oil & gas District strategies ■ District's size and land use Emissions and potential for abatement ■ GDP and employment Implementation and enablers ■ Detailed action plan ■ Critical enablers required ■ Estimate of total costs 20 SOURCE: DNPI; Pemda Kaltim, Pemda Kalteng, Pemda Jambi#21The Council's work with Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan and Jambi has led to other provinces requesting low carbon growth strategies Requested help from DNPI Existing LCGP Aceh Sumatra Utara Jambi SOURCE: DNPI East Kalimantan Riau West Kalimantan Lampung Central Kalimantan West Java Central Java Bali South Sulawesi Papua 15#22Spatial Plan as a means to build interfaces among key stakeholders A comprehensive spatial plan provide the means to measure and monitor the changes. Spatial plan also allows aggregate cross-disciplinary information about individual locations in seeking sustainable production and consumption options that might influence interrelationship. As a means to build a consensus among stakeholders. In responding to CC issues, spatial plan adjustment is needed to include emission reduction plan. Policy makers Build interfaces CC Communities Experts, resources interface?#2323 • Outline Climate Change Policy: International Context and National Response Low Carbon Initiatives and Exercises: Lesson Learnt from the Ground Institutional Dynamics . DNPI Initiatives Show Case: Eat Kalimantan Low Carbon Strategies#24What we've learned and Challenges to Spatial Planning Ideas of Low Carbon Development • There is a potential window of opportunity in driving economic growth while mitigating GHG emission reduction Low carbon growth thinking has not been reflected in the traditional spatial planning process. Approved spatial plans and the ones being under discussion will maintain those provinces on high deforestation pathways Recommendations related to Spatial Planning • Revision of spatial planning process through the inclusion of low carbon economic development components • Inclusion of land titling to allow a more efficient use of non-forest land within and without the "kawasan hutan" ("non forest areas") • Connect spatial and economic development plans to achieve emission reduction and economic development targets Community Engagement Create a culture of openness in tacking the issues and mitigation options Build a platform of participation through overarching approach: (1) policy dialogue, tools, community engagement and public awareness Foster the dialogue and continual improvement Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim | 24#25Boundaries of solution to focus on integrating low carbon development strategy into spatial planning + What we are solving for How the spatial plans can better support low carbon development and a reduced deforestation scenario ■ A high level fact-base for identifying potential to reduce deforestation that is driven by legal land status ■ A strong basis to convince local governments that spatial planning needs to be focused on low carbon development ■ What needs to change: highlight and revise policies and regulations that currently impede optimal spatial plans What we are NOT solving for Complete re-work of the spatial planning process from A to Z ■ Spatial planning beyond the scope of protecting carbon - e.g. infrastructure development, job creation, watershed management ■ A detailed hectare by hectare articulation of exact areas which will require revision to land status' ■ The final or 'complete' solution to Indonesia's moratorium ■ A secured commitment from each Kabupaten to a revision to their spatial plans 25 SOURCE: DNPI; Kaltim Green#26Delivering impact in East Kalimantan relies on multiple partners Private sector Commitment to change critical enablers e.g. regulatory requirements as well as clear investment commitment Donors Set high aspiration and ensure safeguards for critical issues such as spatial planning, forest moratorium and land titling as well as clear funding commitment East Kalimantan ■ Proof of profitable low carbon development programs, replicable nationwide ■ Informs & triggers policy changes at provincial and national level Government Agencies Implementation of required policy changes identified during the pilots to enable roll out across the province or even nationwide SOURCE: Kaltim Green Civil society / NGOs Implementation support for pilot provinces#2727 Outline • Climate Change Policy: International Context and National Response Low Carbon Initiatives and Exercises: Lesson Learnt from the Ground Institutional Dynamics . DNPI Initiatives Show Case: Eat Kalimantan Low Carbon Strategies#28• Climate Change Policy Dynamics Presidential Instruction No. 10/2011 on Forest Moratorium. Development of REDD+ schemes including Indicative Moratorium maps. Presidential Decree No. 25/2011 on National Task Force for REDD+ REDD+agency and related institutional development (finance and MRV) Presidential Regulation No. 61/2011 on National Emission Reduction Plan (RAN-GRK). Covering 70 programs for 26/41% emission reduction plan across five main sectors (agriculture, forestry and peat, energy and transportation, industry, waste and other supporting activities). Presidential Regulation No. 71/2011 on National GHG Inventory System Regular information on th level, status and trend of GHG emission change. and absorption, including national, and subnational carbon stock as well as GHG emision reduction#29Some Questions to be answered How are policies and strategies related to low carbon economy integrated between the local, provincial and national levels? How is this integration also carried out among different priority themes, such as agriculture, development, environment, etc? What kinds of technologies and technology management systems can be adopted to provide alternative livelihoods and income streams for the local communities in order for them to generate income beyond subsistence levels? How can a fair financing and incentive structure be developed that can address the needs of the key stakeholders at the local level? In order to address the problems related to low carbon economy, what kinds of institutional arrangements be put in place in order to achieve collective/consensus goals by ensuring community engagement and dialogue?#30Challenges: A robust foundation? ⚫ (a) the existing data gaps, (b) a common/agreed understanding of the definitions and concepts that are being used, (c) setting the goals of land use and land use change (d) creating a baseline/reference point against which future action can be planned and progress measured.#3131 Outline Climate Change Policy: International Context and National Response Low Carbon Initiatives and Exercises: Lesson Learnt from the Ground Institutional Dynamics DNPI Initiatives Show Case: Eat Kalimantan Low Carbon Strategies#32DNPI Initiatives to promote low carbon economy and related issues Green INVESTMENT INNOVATION PRODUCTIVITY INDONESIA carbon UNEP UPDATE NETWORK 2 ASIAN FORUM O carbon Update 2012 INDONESIA CLIMATE CHANGE CENTER • Series of Policy and Technical Dialogue: MRV, low carbon economy, policy and modelling, expert briefings on mitigation related issues, geo-spatial technology, 100 villages mapping initiative; green investment, innovation and productivity; service reform dialogue on CC(SEREDI) . • • • Indonesia Carbon Update Network (ICU-Net), 2010: low carbon economy, green Innovation, policy and assessment, geospatial technology, knowledge Warehouse, open source initiative, MRV and ICU-net portal(www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net) Sapporo Initiatives: strategic integrative research in the framework of low carbon economy; integration of science and capacity building efforts in economy-wide climate change mitigation research; geo-spatial technology; a new approach on mobilizing and deploying financial/technical resources (GO, private) Asia Forum on Carbon Update (AFCU-Net),: networking and collaborative efforts on low carbon economy, technology and capacity building for scientific communities in the Asian region. ⚫ South East Asia Network on Climate Change Focal Pointe (SEAN-CC), UNEP. Indonesia Climate Change Center (ICCC) (US-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership)#33Existing arrangements Expanding activities to support policy assessment and policy coordination: data integration, scenarios development and networking through Indonesia Climate Change Center (ICCC) Other Govt. Institutions Improve links Global Network Support Indonesia Create DNPI Expansion of Climate Change DNPI activities Center Expand collaboration National/sub-national Other Stakeholders network support Future arrangements#34DNPI Initiatives to promote low carbon economy and related issues (con't) • Portal for Climate Change information, accessible by all. . INDONESIA CLIMATE CHANGE CENTER • • Center work focus is in four areas, or research clusters: peatland and peatland mapping, low emission development strategies (LEDS), Climate Resilience, MRV for climate financing • Assemble, maintain and disseminate an accessible single source of Climate Change information. Ensure that the scientific and technical work of the Government Ministries is coordinated to produce a unified approach to addressing and minimizing the impacts of climate change. • Governance: • • Steering Committee comprised of representatives from GOI Ministries sets priorities for Center scientific and technical work. Research Cluster Expert Working Groups - world class experts, 8 national 7 international - identify best available science, determine data gaps and create research agenda to fill the gaps, analyze and distill information, develop policy briefs. Policy recommendations are considered by Steering Committee for adoption#35UPCOMING EVENT 2nd Research and Technology User Group Meetings Program/Projects Update ASIA FORUM On carbon Update 2012-1 Indonesia Mengayuh • Date and Venue: Panghegar Convention Center, Bandung, 15- 17 February 2012 Programme • Substantive Meetings and Networking Program Climate Change Issues: Policy Update, research and technology, user group meetings, programs/projects update, technical consultation, investment forum, launching of AFCU portal, micro assessment initiatives, financial engineering of CC incentives, legal instrument development and promotion of "carbon neutral". Networking and Knowledge Warehouse: Asia Voice on Climate Change, www.asiaforumcarbon update.net, green investment, innovation and productivity forum. • Public Outreach and Awareness: mobile exhibition,, "Indonesia Mengayuh", social events 35#3636 . Outline Low Carbon Economy and Spatial Planning Context Lesson Learned Institutional Dynamics Show Case: East Kalimantan#37Optimized land use for East Kalimantan dewan mesional perubahan Adim Global Green Growth Institute Discussion document January 2011 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission is strictly prohibited#38Carbon from Peat Carbon from Vegetation East Kalimantan carbon stock distribution above and below ground Carbon from vegetation and peat, 2009 tons of carbon/ha Above ground and peatland Carbon tons/ha 0-50 51-100 101-150 151 - 250 251-500 501 1000 1001 2000 Forest cover and carbon stock per district, 2009 Standing foresti Million ha Forest cover Percent 1.7 Carbon Mton Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM Kab. Berau 80 457 Kab. Bulungan 70 434 Kab. Kutai 0.8 29 508 Kab. Kutai Barat 2.6 69 60 728 2001 - 5325 Kab. Kutai Timur 39 364 Kab. Malinau 3.7 96 1,103 Kab. Nunukan 78 879 1.2 Kab. Pasir 0.5 50 147 Kab. Penajam Paser Utara 0.1 22 26 Kota Balikpapan 21 3 Kota Bontang 0.1 37 23 Kota Samarinda Kota Tarakan Total DRAFT 12.8 3 2 64 3,611 1,065 1 Primary and secondary forest on dryland, mangrove and swamp SOURCE: ESRI, Ministry of Forestry - Rep. of Indonesia, Wetlands International; team analysis 78#39East Kalimantan RTRW: Original proposal for 1.3 million ha forest conversion to KBNK has been reviewed down to ~800,000 ha Min of Forestry target KBNK of 400,000 ha negotiated to 600,000 ha Spatial plan drafted based on district plans 2006-2008 Mid 2009 Spatial plan is reviewed by integrated team 2009 End 2009 Iterative discussion with district brings conversion closer to 800,000 hai 2010 Early 2011 The spatial planning process was started prior to emission reduction targets set by the Presiden, and therefore may not fully capture those targets Civil society objects to forest conversion of 1.3 million hectares into KBNK Integrated team suggests a reduction of conversion to 340,000 ha Submit to local parliament (DPRD) to be entered into legislation (Perda) Approving these plans now may "legalize" develop- ment plans that place forest at risk (RAP frest 1 Exact conversion target not yet finalized or announced (January 2011); based on stakeholder interviews SOURCE: team analysis 12 79#40Changes to legal status during the spatial planning process do not appear to consider actual land cover Legal status evolution of KBNK between RTRW 1999 and draft RTRW 2009 Land cover Forested Legal status conversion KBNK KBNK KBNK Kawasan hutan KBNK Kawasan hutan Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM There is limited correlation between conversion of legal status and actual land cover - Legal status changes do not consider vegetation e.g. some deforested land is returned to kawasan hutan while forested land is converted to KBNK There is more land converted into KBNK than there is land returned to kawasan hutan be rational Legal status may need to be rationalized tus may need to by considering actual land cover SOURCE: RTRW 2008-2027 (initial draft); Min of Forestry land cover data 2009; Kawasan hutan map (MoF); Team analysis 80 00#41Legal status given by spatial plan is not an indication of actual land cover... Based on 2009 land cover data and draft RTRW 2009 Land within kawasan Forest Agriculture Other land use Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM hutan Million ha Land within KBNK Million ha Total Primary forest 12,826 6,614 5,932 291 Secondary forest 4,647 1,856 Brush/shrub 1,584 2,203 Swamp 311 685 Agriculture 118 467 Plantation 29 622 Plantation forest +146 164 Settlements 4 66 Open land 53 18% non-forest DRAFT forest 31% SOURCE: Draft RTRW 2010-2030 (2009); Ministry of Forestry Land Cover 2009 81#42...and actual development on the ground does not adhere to planned land use Land use in Conservation Forest 000 Ha 4,604 4,604 69 Others 148 Mining (3%) 253 Timber -16% (5%) forest 279 Scrub/ (6%) Degraded 3,856 (84%) Conserved Forest 1999 Plan 2004 Real SOURCE: Draft RTRWP 2009 Land use in Production Forest 000 Ha 9,761 9,761 Housing & 339 agriculture 622 | Mining- 4,755 (49%) Production Forest Other (incl. 4,045 unused =(41%) forest) 1999 Plan 2004 Real Potential discrepancies due to DRAFT Illegal activity e.g. by settlers and non-concession holders Errors in data records between central and kabupaten Pressure to local authority to grant development despite not having originally planned for it -10% Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM 82#43Slated land use development in forestry, mining and palm oil sectors cover 7.2 million hectares forest... Distribution of current licenses (2009) Legend HPH HTI Palm Oil Mining Forest area Peat area area Mn ha Mn ha Total Mn ha Forestry HTI 0.4 0.05 0.8 HPH 4.1 0.09 4.8 Mining 1.4 ~0 3.1 Palm oil DRAFT 2.8 KBNK status land 7.2 0.3 11.5 SOURCE: ESRI, Ministry of Forestry - Rep. of Indonesia, Wetlands International; Daemeter Consulting; team analysis Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM 83#44...under these plans, East Kalimantan could potentially lose up to almost 680 million tons of carbon by 2030 Change in vegetation and peat carbon under allocated licenses tons of carbon/ha Per hectare carbon stock loss by 2030 Low: <150 tC per ha Average: 150-300 tC per hat High: >300 tC per ha Total carbon loss by 2030 Million ton Timber HTI Average on vegetation High on peat 169 Low carbon stock loss 187 HPH Mining Low carbon stock loss 71 Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM Palm oil Total carbon change Forested tons/ha Average on vegetation High on peat 264 (4000) - (3000) Small net increase in (2999) - (300) Degraded (299)-(150) (149) - 0 carbon stock (up to 70 TT (13) per ha) 680 1-70 (net increase) SOURCE: ESRI, Ministry of Forestry - Rep. of Indonesia, Wetlands International 84#45Emissions estimated from land use could be 46% above the Presiden's target PRELIMINARY 2030 emissions from land use changes in palm oil, mining and forestryi MtCOe per annum 115 85 55 Vege- tation 71 52 52 Peat 44 33 Business- as-usual 125 +46% 76 49 Scenario based on permits allocated Emissions scenario from current allocated permits could lead to: Emissions 8% higher than the business-as-usual scenario Emissions 46% higher than Presiden's target by 2030 DRAFT Presiden's 26% target scenario 1 From palm oil, mining and timber production sectors; includes deforestation and peat degradation only (excludes forest degradation and peat fire. Assumes a carbon to CO2e conversion factor of 3.67 and a linearized carbon stock loss over 20 year period SOURCE: Team analysis Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM 55 85#46Threat is highest from palm oil expansion onto forested areas Carbon lost from peat Carbon lost from vegetation Forestry HTI HPH Mining Lost carbon by 2030 Millions tons Carbon -49 -120 4H Estimated emissions by 2030 MtCO2e per annum 31 -185 -2 34 Palm oil Forested -160 -105 Degraded land -54 4н -17 13 49 Strategy to reduce emisions: Re-direct developments onto degraded land Protect specific deep peat areas Improve efficiency and productivity of operations to avoid need for additional land +34 -2 DRAF -21 1 Net reduction in CO2e emissions due to sequestration of carbon by new palm oil plantations on previously degraded lands SOURCE: ESRI, Ministry of Forestry - Rep. of Indonesia, Wetlands International 86 98 Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM#47Contents Optimizing East Kal land use - Implication of land use plans Optimizing land use DRAFT Working Draft Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM 87#48Using degraded land to substitute forest under threat could avoid emissions from deforestation Forest under threat by current licenses Degraded land by current land cover and criticality Area threatened 970,000 ha Can we reassign licences onto degraded lands? Legend Primary forest Secondary forest Forest within current permits Area available 2,600,000 ha Legend DRAFT Degraded KBNK Degraded kawa hutan Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM SOURCE: RTRW 2008-2027 (initial draft); Min of Forestry land cover data 2009; Kawasan hutan map (MoF); Team analysis 88#491 Amount of degraded land available will depend on definition used All degraded land All degraded land in KBNK All unassigned degraded land PRELIMINARY All degraded land 2.57 million ha Low carbon stock Medium to high criticality KBNK only 1.34 million ha Low carbon stock Medium to high criticality Legal status: KBNK No existing permits 560,000 ha Low carbon stock Medium to high criticality Legal status: KBNK DE existing permits Palm oil suitability Different definition yields different availability of degraded land SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Agriculture; draft RTRW 2009; Bappeda; team analysis 89 68 Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM#502 There is imbalance of deforestation risk with distribution of degraded land '000 ha, only considering minimum 500 ha parcels Degraded land > threatened forest Kab. Pasir 118 Kab. Penajam Pas Ut 77 50 Kab. Kutai Karta 774 6 Kab. Kutai Timur 965 109 5 No risk Kota Balikpapan, Bontang, Sama- rinda and Tarakan Forest under threat Degraded KBNKI Degraded kawasan hutanı Degraded land < threatened forest Kab. Berau Kab. Bulungan 136 144 150 51 Kab. Malinau 142 Kab. Kutai Barat Kab. Nunukan 255 106 204 N/A DRAFT Districts may need to 'trade' development opportunity with each other SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Agriculture; draft RTRW 2009; Bappeda; team analysis 51 00 90 Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM#51Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM 3 Inclusion of kawasan hutan considerably improves amount of degraded land available '000 ha, only considering minimum 500 ha parcels KBNK Legal status All status' Suitable for palm oil Area 794,000 ha # of plots = Suitability criteria ignored Area 1,716,000 ha = # of 198 36 24 41 154 20 25 48 plots 409 1,421 206 151 86 93 49 44 94 Size Size = Area 304,000 ha Area 563,000 ha = # of # of 118 16 17 10 plots 104 17 21 21 plots 117 335 79 69 39 105 Size 43 80 Size 0.5-2 2-3 3-5 5+ 0.5-2 2-3 3-5 5+ Plot size ('000 ha) Including kawasan hutan increases available degraded land plots Plot size ('000 ha) DRA)] Ignoring suitability improves available plots but reduces viability to operators 91#524 50% of the carbon stock risk can be avoided by moving only 8% of the concessions on deep and very deep peatlands Distribution of forest and peat at risk SOURCE: Source No peat present Peat present Land area and total carbon in peat and non-peat at risk parcels % Land area % 92% Total carbon 50% 50% Legend Forest only Forest over peat DRAFT Working Draft - Last Modified 1/24/2011 11:00:36 PM Printed 1/25/2011 12:47:32 AM 92 92