#1UNITED INTERNA TIONAL STATES AGENCY DEVELOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ONREL Transforming ENERGY Fundamentals of Electric Vehicles (EVs) Prateek Joshi and Carishma Gokhale-Welch National Renewable Energy Laboratory November 2022#2Background This slide deck was developed for and presented at an Energy Fundamentals Course hosted by the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) in October 2022. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) helped organize this course in partnership with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The students in this four-day course were postgraduates and working professionals in the energy sector or related industries in Bangladesh. While some of the content in the slide deck is tailored to Bangladesh specifically, this presentation is intended to be a general primer on electric vehicles that can be utilized for similar purposes by other universities or organizations throughout the world. The content of this slide deck is not intended to be fully comprehensive of all electric vehicle concepts. 2 USAID USAID ONREL FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY#3Outline 170 1. EV Trends a. Global trends b. Regional trends 2. EV Technology a. Vehicle types b. Opportunities c. Challenges [4] 3. EV Charging a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid EV !il! 4. EV Policies a. Options b. Case studies USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ONREL Transforming ENERGY FI Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany) 3#4Outline 170 1. EV Trends a. Global trends b. Regional trends 2. EV Technology a. Vehicle types b. Opportunities C. Challenges 3. EV Charging a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid EV !il! 4. EV Policies a. Options b. Case studies USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NREL Transforming ENERGY FI Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany) 4#5Global Trends 20 20 14% 16 7% N Electric Passenger Car Stock (millions) 2021 EV Stock Passenger cars: 16.7 million (9% of global sales) Commercial vehicles: 180,000 (1% of global sales) Buses: 685,000 (44% of global sales) Two- and Three-Wheelers: 275 million (42% of global sales) CO 33% 45% 0 2011 2012 2013 ■China 2014 2015 Europe 2016 2017 2018 ■ United States 2019 2020 ■Rest of World 2021 5 Figure. Global electric passenger car stock, 2011-2021 ONREL Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022) USAID USAID Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE#6700 20% Global Trends 2040 EV Stock Projections Passenger cars: 727 million (75% of global sales) Commercial vehicles: 15.5 million (54% of global sales) Buses: 1.7 million (83% of global sales) Two- and Three-Wheelers: 758 million (83% of global sales) Electric Passenger Car Stock (millions) 800 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 18% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 ■China ■ Europe United States Rest of World 26% 37% Figure. Global electric passenger car stock projection, 2022-2040 ONREL Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022) USAID USAID Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 6#7Battery Cost ($/kWh) 0 100 Global Trends Cost Declines in Batteries 300 Higher upfront cost of most EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) counterpart is due to cost of battery. Battery pack prices have fallen 89% since 2010, despite recent supply chain issues. Figure. Projected decrease in cost of batteries, 2020-2050 Slow Advancement Moderate Advancement Rapid Advancement ☐ BNEF 2016 O Moawad et al. 2016 ▲ DOE-VTO × Interpolated * х 200 x 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: NREL Electrification Futures Study (Jadun et al., 2017) 2040 * * * 2045 • * * USAID 2050 T 2010 Battery pack price (real 2021 $/kWh) 1,220 946 744 684 606 89% 393 302 226 185 161 140 132 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Figure. Decrease in cost of battery packs, 2010-2021 T Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022) Unsubsidized upfront price parity expected in most vehicle segments and markets by the late 2020s. Already, the lifetime operational cost of owning EVs is typically lower than the ICE counterpart due to reduced fuel and maintenance expenses. USAID ONREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY 7#8Global Trends Expansion of Charging Infrastructure 40% increase in publicly available charging stations between 2015 and 2021. 2021 global average: 10 EVs per charging. point. Figure. Projected EV charger trends by region, 2020-2040 EVs per public connector 50 BEVs per ultra-fast charger 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 United States China Europe Rest of World Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022) USAID Fast charger stock (thousand) USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 1 200 Fast publicly available chargers 1 000 800 600 400 200 Slow charger stock (thousand) 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 Slow publicly available chargers 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 China Europe United States Other countries Figure. Publicly accessible light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating and region, 2015-2021 Source: International Energy Agency (2022) • Bloomberg 2040 projections: 30-40 EVs per public charger and 100-300 EVs per ultra-fast charger. NREL Transforming ENERGY 8#910% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Regional Trends • India has set the following 2030 EV sales goals: 30% passenger cars, 70% commercial vehicles, and 80% of two- and three-wheelers. Commitments by Japanese Automakers 0% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 EV Commercial Vehicle Share (%) EV Two-Wheeler Share (%) EV Passenger Car Share (%) EV Bus Share (%) Figure. Projected EV shares in India, 2022-2030 Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2022) USAID USAID ONREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY Toyota: EVs constitute 40% of annual sales by 2030 Nissan: 50% sales from EVs and hybrids by 2030 Honda: 30 EV models and production of 2 million units by 2030 9#10Outline 1. EV Trends 2. EV Technology a. Global trends a. Vehicle types b. Regional trends b. Opportunities c. Challenges USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE EV !il! FI 3. EV Charging a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid 4. EV Policies a. Options b. Case studies NREL Transforming ENERGY Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany) 10#11• Electric Drive Trains Bj Hybrid Electric Vehicle * Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Electric Vehicle ICE and electric motor Batteries are charged by engine (no external charging) ICE and electric motor Batteries are rechargeable • Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle 100% electric motor Batteries are rechargeable • 100% electric motor • Fuel cell converts hydrogen Gear box Combustion engine Fuel tank Car/EV battery Electric motor USAID USAID ONREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY • and oxygen into electricity Requires hydrogen distribution infrastructure Images: National Motorists Association Blog (2020) 11#12Vehicle Categories plugin ups Natural Gas Vehicle 05/11 - SCHOOL BUS ELECTRIC XPRESS THER Source: Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (2021) Covered Van Delivery Van Bus Tractor Jeep 1% 1% 1% Microbus 2% Pick Up 3% Truck 3% Auto Rickshaw 6% Private Psgr Car 8% 1% 1% Taxicab 1% Minibus 1% Motor Cycle 70% Passenger Cars Fleet Electrification Commercial Vehicles Buses Two- and Three-Wheelers Figure. Vehicle registrations in Bangladesh by type, 2021 Vehicle fleets (taxi services with passenger cars or three-wheelers, delivery vans, transit buses, etc.) can take advantage of lower operating costs of EVs. • High vehicle-kilometers-traveled, fixed-route operation, and predictable schedules tend to be ideal for electrification and alleviates the need for fast charging. Source: Aznar et al. (2021) USAID USAID ONREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY Vehicle Images: Erik Nelsen (ICF), P.J. Ray (PNM Resources), Erik Nelsen (NREL), Dennis Schroeder (NREL), Margaret Smith (Akimeka), Virginia Clean Cities, Erik Nelson (NREL), and Mahindra Electric 12#13Opportunities Baseline $0.0 Niche $4.7 Market growth Breakthrough $9.3 Aggressive $26.5 Cost of vehicles and chargers { High Cost $18.1 Low Cost $34.2 Cost of petroleum - High Oil { Oil $83.7 Low $7.0 -60B Reduced maintenance and fuel costs -20B 20B 60B Home Charger Cost Non-Home Charger Cost Electricity Cost Vehicle Net Cost GHG Benefit Petroleum Benefit Gasoline Savings 100B Figure. EV net social benefits in U.S. under various scenarios ($/year) Source: Melaina et al. (2016) Increased fuel efficiency Zero tailpipe emissions and improved air quality Falling costs for batteries USAID USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Reduced greenhouse gas emissions Enhanced energy security ONREL Transforming ENERGY 140B Economic and job opportunities Performance benefits and quiet operation 13#14Electricity Consumption (TWh) Challenges Lithium Nickel 7000 ■Transportation Historical → Modeled High 1000 8 000 1.000 5000 6000 ■Commercial ■Residential ■Industrial Medium 750 6.000 750 Reference 500 4.000 500 4000 3000 2000 1000 250 2.000 250 Cobalt 0 0 0 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 Supply NZE demand STEPS demand APS demand 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure. Potential increase in U.S. electricity demand due to transport electrification, 2020-2050 Source: NREL Electrification Futures Study (Jadun et al., 2017) Increased electricity demand Higher upfront costs for some segments WATES USAID Figure. Projected supply and demand for critical minerals in EV batteries, 2020-2030 Charging infrastructure buildout USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ONREL Transforming ENERGY Source: International Energy Agency (2022) NZE: net zero emissions by 2050 scenario STEPS: stated policies scenario APS: announced pledges scenario Access to critical minerals for batteries Workforce development 14#15Outline 1. EV Trends 2. EV Technology a. Global trends b. Regional trends a. Vehicle types b. Opportunities C. Challenges () 3. EV Charging a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid EV !il! 4. EV Policies a. Options b. Case studies USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ONREL Transforming ENERGY FI Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany) 15#16EV Charging Purpose of Charging Stations (all types): • Connects EV to grid Dedicated circuit prevents overloading Safe connection before power can flow Prevents EV battery damage House Office Apartment Shopping Center Attraction 8 hours (or more) BX Gas Station Figure. Range of typical dwell times for chargers at various locations Highway 30 minutes (or less) USAID USAID NREL Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Source: Bopp et al. (2020) 16#17Residential Charging ➤ Most established markets focused on residential charging first. ➤ Internationally, 50%-80% of all charging events occurred at residences (Hardman et al. 2018). ➤Lack of residential charging availability is often found to be a barrier to EV adoption (Funke et al. 2019). ➤ Residential charging can use Level 1 or Level 2 EV supply equipment (EVSES). Level 1 EVSE 3-8 km per hour of charging Charging speed often limited by vehicle Alternating Current 120 V USAID USAID ONREL Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Source: Aznar et al. (2021) Image: Erik Nelsen (NREL) 17#18Public Charging Level 2 EVSE RESERVED PARKING ONLY PEAK KIA EV CHARGING AREA DC Fast Charger . 16-32 km per • 95-128 km per Evgo Elgo • . hour of charging Charging speed often limited by vehicle Alternating Current *7.2 kW, 240 V Center REXIT hour of charging • Direct Current *50 kW, 480- 600 V Can be up to 350 kW *power ratings vary ➤ Public and home charging Less expensive to install and operate than DCFC ➤ AC charging power is limited by the capabilities of the vehicle's on-board charger ➤ Can process payments and data ➤ Can be networked USAID USAID *power ratings vary ➤ Expensive to install and operate ➤ Faster charging Can process payments and data Can be networked ➤ Incompatible with many 2- and 3-wheelers ONREL Source: Bopp et al. (2020), Images: Erik Nelsen (ICF) FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY 18#19• Battery Swapping Easier for motorcycles/scooters because liftable size and less expensive to carry redundant batteries • Rickshaws use multiple batteries but can be compatible • More compatible with renewables than EVSE gogoro network · ● Reduces the upfront cost of scooters and increases lifespan Largest networks operated by Gogoro (Taiwan), Immotor (China), KYMCO (Taiwan) Honda, KTM, Piaggio, and Yamaha have formed a swappable battery consortium for standards Source: Aznar et al. (2021) ∞ DI 11 11 11 11 11 1 1 11 11 0000 USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ONREL Transforming ENERGY Image: electrek.co 19#20• What Are Some Common Standards? SAE J1772 - North America - 5-pin AC charging port (Type 1) N. America and S. Korea - 7-pin DC charging port: Combined Charging Standard (CCS1) AC IEC 61851/62196 - Europe and emerging markets - 7-pin AC charging port (Type 2) DC - 9-pin DC charging port (CCS2) Japan EU, Australia, and parts of Africa, South America, and Middle East China All Markets except EU J1772 (Type 1) J1772 (Type 1) Mennekes (Type 2) GB/T CCS1 OO CHAdeMO CCS2 0°0 GB/T Figure. Predominant charging standards in different regions • DC charging uses two additional dedicated DC pins. . • All chargers require additional pins for communication or controls. Tesla Image: Enel X • India has Bharat Standards (low power), CCS, CCS2, CHAdeMO, and Tesla. USAID USAID ONREL Source: Bopp et al. (2020) FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY 20#21Managing Grid Impacts Home-Dominant Charging 120 Typical Weekday (uncontrolled) 120 No Home Charging Typical Weekday (uncontrolled) Managed Charging EV Load (unmanaged) Electrical Load, MW 100 Home-L1 37% Home-L2 45% 80 Work-L1 0% Work-L2 0% Public-L2 15% DCFC 3% 60 40 40 20 0 0 4 8 12 Hour of Day Source: NREL EVI-Pro Model • Electrical Load, MW 100 80 60 40 40 20 Home-L1 0% Home-L2 0% Work-L1 17% Work-L2 26% Public-L2 48% DCFC 10% 0 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Hour of Day Figure. Different charging profiles for EVs Load EV Load (managed) Net Load Hour of the Day Source: Anwar et al. (2022) EVs are not just a "burden” to the grid; flexible EV charging can satisfy mobility needs while also supporting the grid and integration of renewable energy. Vehicles are underutilized assets: Parked ~95% of the time (in United States). • - EV charging profiles can look significantly different if vehicles are charged at different locations or times. • Flexibility is secondary to mobility needs and is enabled by charging infrastructure. Source: Muratori (2020) USAID USAID ONREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY 21#22EV Tariff Design Two Types of Tariffs Tariff between electric utility and EVSE owner Tariff between EVSE owner and customer Utility Distribution Network Meter Panel EV Charger Electric Vehicle Transformer Conductor Source: Zinaman et al. (2020) Figure. Locations along EV charging paths with tariff considerations USAID USAID NREL Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 22 22#23Outline 1. EV Trends 2. EV Technology a. Vehicle types a. Global trends b. Regional trends b. Opportunities C. Challenges USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE EV !il! FI 3. EV Charging a. Charging infrastructure b. Impact to grid 4. EV Policies a. Options b. Case studies NREL Transforming ENERGY Image: Capital District Clean Communities Coalition (Albany) 23#24Policy Options Manufacturer Fuel Economy Requirements EV Purchase Incentives EV Manufacturing Mandates or Tax Exemptions EV Accessibility Advantages Charger Installation Key hurdles to address: 1. Higher upfront cost (currently) 2. Limited locations to recharge, shorter range, and longer recharge time Waiver for Registration Import Tariff Source: Aznar et al. (2021) Fossil Fuel Taxes Figure. Ecosystem of policy options for EVs and EVSE USAID USAID ONREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY 24 24#25EV Purchase Incentives: Effectiveness in the United States State Level Correlation of Plug-In EV (PEV) Market Variables on Per Capita PEV Purchases PEVS Plug-In Hybrid EVs Battery EVs Explanatory Variables Increase/Decrease by Increases purchases by Increases purchases by Increases purchases by Charging stations per hundred 1 3.1% 2.6% 7.2% thousand population Tax credit (in dollars) Rebate (in dollars) Sales tax waiver (in dollars) $1,000 2.3% Not significant 5.3% $1,000 4.8% Not significant 7.7% Not significant overall; 1.6% for $1,000 3.6% 5.9% Volt High-occupancy vehicle lane if Yes 8.3% 8.1% 14.5% access (Yes or No) Home EVSE credit If Yes Not significant Not significant overall; 26.0% for Volt Not significant Home charging discount If Yes Not significant Not significant Not significant Gasoline price Source: Narassimhan and Johnson (2018) 1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% USAID FRELATIONAL USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ONREL Transforming ENERGY 25#26Case Study: India ● National target of 30% EV sales by 2030 • Set stringent fuel economy standards aligned with Euro 6 in April 2020 Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of EVs (FAME II): - - - - Purchase incentives of $1.4B USD for 1.6M EVs and hybrids 2019- 2024 Phased-in localization of component manufacturing Charging infrastructure funding of $133M USD Direct subsidies to purchase electric buses (nearly 6,000 so far) and 1 charger per bus EV adoption far behind schedule: . . • Possibly due to no zero-emission vehicle sales requirements or ICE phase-out targets (IEA 2021) EV manufacturers blame the aggressive localization criteria before large enough market (Chaliawala 2021) Others blame the limited availability of inexpensive EV models. Figure. Projected EV share of vehicle sales by mode and scenario in India, 2030 Sales share (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% India 2/3 Ws LDVS Buses Trucks | 2/3 Ws LDVs Buses Trucks II • Large municipal fleets (especially New Delhi) are leading in electrification STATED USAID USAID NREL Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE STEPS SDS STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario SDS = Sustainable Development Scenario Source: International Energy Agency (2022) 26#27Case Study: Barbados ● Highest number of EVs per capita in the Caribbean Belleplaine H2 Bathsheba Horse Hill Barbados H2 H3 H4 ● • • 430 EVs on the road, 45 public chargers, 200 private chargers Target of 100% electric buses and public fleets by 2030 Policies: - ― - Reduced import taxes on EVs (from 45% to 10%) Pilot projects EV maintenance course development for technicians Independent companies operate EV charging infrastructure (viewed as an access service and not electricity delivery, so not in the exclusive domain of the electric utility) Source: Joshi et al. (2022, forthcoming) SAINT LUCY SAINT PETER Speightstown Mullins Mount Standfast Holetown Fitts Village Bridgetown USAID USAID ONREL Transforming ENERGY FRELATIONAL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Oistins SAINT JOHN SAINT PHILIP H6 Six Cross Roads HS Long Bay Image: Google Maps 27 22#28. • • New Zealand 10,574 EVs sold in 2021 Emission Reduction Plan promotes EVs, walking, cycling, and public transit Currently, public chargers every 75 km on Whangarei Auckland Hamiltono Tauranga Rotorua . • highways, but more are needed to support increasing number of EVs Clean Car Discount Program: Rebates for vehicles (new and used) emitting less than 146 grams of CO2 per kilometer, and fees on vehicles above the limit Low Emission Transport Fund: Supports EV chargers, car shares, bus fleets, e-bike storage, and more Source: Joshi et al. (2022, forthcoming) USAID USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FRELATIONAL ONREL Transforming ENERGY Queenstown Dunedin Invercargill New Zealand Christchurch Palmerston North Wellington Image: Google Maps 28#29Thank you! [email protected] https://www.nrel.gov/usaid-partnership/reinforcing-advanced-energy-systems-bangladesh.html UNITED S STATES D AGENCY ERNATIONAL DEVELOPME USAID NREL FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Transforming ENERGY This work was authored, in part, by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Contract No. IAG- 17-2050. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government, or any agency thereof, including USAID. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. NREL/PR-5R00-84498#30References Anwar, Muhammad Bashar, Matteo Muratori, Paige Jadun, Elaine Hale, Brian Bush, Paul Denholm, Ookie Ma, and Kara Podkaminer. "Assessing the Value of Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: A Review of Methodologies and Results." Energy Environ. Sci. 15, no. 2 (2022): 466-98. https://doi.org/10.1039/D1EE02206G. Aznar, Alexandra, Scott Belding, Kaylyn Bopp, Kamyria Coney, Caley Johnson, and Owen Zinaman. "Building Blocks of Electric Vehicle Deployment: A Guide for Developing Countries." National Renewable Energy Laboratory, May 2021. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/78776.pdf. 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