#1ONREL Transforming ENERGY Sharing the Sun: Community Solar Deployment and Subscriptions (as of June 2023) Kaifeng Xu, NREL Gabriel Chan, University of Minnesota Jenny Sumner, NREL November 2023#2Contents 1 Introduction 2 Market Status 3 Impact of Policy and Market Drivers 4 Community Solar Lead States 5 Low- and Moderate-Income Community Solar 6 The Subscriber Value Proposition NREL 2#3Introduction • The community solar market analysis presented here is based primarily on data collected through Sharing the Sun, an initiative of the National Community Solar Partnership (NCSP). Sharing the Sun data collection and analysis is conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of its support for implementation of the NCSP. NREL first released a data set of community solar projects in 2018 and updates it annually (at minimum). The July 2023 release and the data collection methodology is available from NREL's Data Catalog at https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/220. The dataset presents project level information such as location, capacity, operating utility, and year of interconnection. The dataset is created from multiple data sources like utility data, public utility commissions, project developer websites, media releases, primary data collection by NREL, and data provided by developers under nondisclosure agreements. This presentation builds on a previous analysis of the community solar project dataset, Community Solar Deployment, Subscription Savings, and Energy Burden Reduction (2021). - The University of Minnesota contributes to this effort. • NCSP is led and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. NREL 3#4Market Status A summary of data on community solar deployment over time, by state, and by project characteristics.#5What is Community Solar? The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) defines community solar as: Any solar project or purchasing program, within a geographic area, in which the benefits flow to multiple customers such as individuals, businesses, nonprofits, and other groups. In most cases, customers benefit from energy generated by solar panels at an off-site array. Source: DOE, Community Solar Basics NREL 5#6Community Solar Capacity by State ashington North Dakota Montoina Gregon Idaho Wyoming California Nevada Arizona New Mexico ° ° South Dakota lowa Michigan Nebraska Urote o States Pennsylvania Kansas Missouri West Virgini ° Arka issippi Texas Louisiana State Total (MW-AC) Mexico 0 1,636 Community solar projects in the United States Data Source: NREL Sharing the Sun Project List 2022 New Brunswick Nova Sco System Size (MW-AC) 0 50 100 150 200 228 Total Community Solar Capacity: As of the close of 2022, our estimate indicates a total community solar capacity of 6,081 MWac, distributed across 2,550 projects in 43 states and the District of Columbia. ⚫ State Variability: The distribution of community solar capacity among states ranges from 0 to 1,636 MWac. Notably, Florida claims the top position in terms of community solar deployment. Visual Representation: The bubbles on the chart represent individual project sizes, ranging from 0 to 228 MWac. Each state is distinguished by a unique color, allowing for clear differentiation. NREL 6#7The Rapid Growth of Community Solar · The capacity of community solar installations has grown rapidly Cumulative MWac 6,000 Annual Install since 2016. In 2021, over 2 GWac were installed, the greatest annual 5,000 Pre-Year Cumulative Install installation amount to date. 4,000 . About 604 MWac of new 3,000 community solar projects came online in 2022. 2,000 • Growth in 2021-2022 was 111%, 1,000 compared to 161% in 2020-2021, likely due to the impact of COVID- 19, the supply chain slowdown, siting, and interconnection challenges. 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Community solar capacity (MWac) by year NREL 7#8Fewer Projects Deployed in 2022; Project Median Capacities Continue to Hover Around 1 MW Fewer community solar projects were deployed in 2022 than previous years. Until 2017, projects generally became larger each year, but in recent years, project size medians have stayed largely the same. Meanwhile, more considerably larger projects (greater than 5 MW) have been installed. For example, Florida Power & Light built 20 projects at 74.5 MWac each in 2021. = 1 project Project Capacity (MWac) 3 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 # of Projects by Year 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Distribution of Project Capacity by Year (Excluding Outliers) 8#9. • A Few Key States Lead the Community Solar Market About 93% of cumulative community solar capacity is located in 10 states. About 75% of cumulative capacity is located in just four states: Florida, New York, Minnesota, and Massachusetts. 24 states have projects adding up to more than 10 MWac in size. FL Capacity (MWac) MN 8 곪 ㅑ ㅊ 룸 를 로꾸 NY 875 MA 858 TX 333 IL 205 AR 183 159 GA 136 MD 95 1636 1166 Cumulative community solar capacity (MWac) by state NREL 9#10. Community Solar Capacity Has Been Installed in Waves in Key Markets Massachusetts and Minnesota Growth (2016- 2020): Massachusetts and Minnesota witnessed substantial capacity expansions during the years 2016 to 2020, adding 613 MWac and 794 MWac, respectively. • Florida's Remarkable Capacity Surge (2020-2021): Florida experienced a significant surge in capacity from 2020 to 2021, with a cumulative 1.49 GWac of capacity coming online. • New York's Emerging Market (2019-2022): New York has emerged as a pivotal market in recent years, particularly from 2019 to 2022, adding 717 MWac of capacity during this period. MWac 2000 1600 CO 1200 FL IL MA MN NY Other 800 400 0 2010 2014 2018 2022 New community solar capacity (MWac) by year and state NREL 10#11Impact of Policy and Market Drivers A discussion of various policy and market factors have shaped community solar deployment#12Community Solar State Policies (slide 1 of 2) • 22 states and the District of Columbia have passed some form of legislation enabling community solar, either through state-required programs or by authorizing a limited number of pilot projects. These programs vary in scope, but generally allow for some form of virtual net metering that enables subscribers to benefit from their community solar subscriptions. WA VT ME MT ND OR MN NH SD WI WY MI CT IA PA NJ NE NV UT CO CA OH DE IL IN St WV MD KS VA MO KY DC NC TN OK AZ NM AR SC MS AL GA TX LA AK HI FL State-level community solar enabling legislation Created with mapchart.net State-level community solar enabling legislation* * Legislation applies to at least one utility in the state Source: NREL Expanding Solar Access: State Community Solar Landscape (2022) NREL 12#13Community Solar State Policies (slide 2 of 2) • As of 2022, 59% of community solar installations were developed 3000 in states with enabling legislation, while 41% of community solar installation were in states without enabling legislation. • Florida, Texas, and Georgia were the key drivers of capacity in states without enabling legislation contributing to 85% of developed capacity among states without enabling legislation. Cumulative MWac 2000 1000 FL TX GA Other States State Without Enabling Legislation State With Enabling Legislation Cumulative installed capacity in states with and without enabling legislation NREL 13#14Some States Impose System Size Maximum 21 states and the District of Columbia set a maximum size for community solar projects. • Some states have revised project caps over time. In Colorado, the amended HB 1003 (effected in 2019) increased the project size cap from 2 MW to 5 MW, and then to 10 MW after July 1, 2023. ➤In Illinois, the 2022 Procurement Plan increased the maximum project size from 2 MW to 5 MW ➤ In Maryland, HB 1039 and HB 440 (effected in 2022) increased the maximum community solar project size to 5 MW. ➤ In Minnesota, the HF 2310 (effected in 2023) expands the maximum project size from 1 MW to 5 MW. In Maine, LD 1711 (effected in 2019) lifted the capacity cap on distributed generation resources from 660 kW to 5 MW. ➤ In Delaware, SB 2 (effected in 2021) increased the maximum project size from 2 MW to 4 MW. ➤In Hawaii, capacity limits for individual projects vary by location. The largest shared renewable project cannot exceed 75 MW. NREL 14#15States With Program Caps Have Large Amounts of Remaining Capacity At least 19 states and the District of Columbia included some cap-related requirements on community solar programs. 14 community solar program caps are listed in the figure. ➤California and Illinois have multiple programs. D.C.'s community solar target is household-related. ➤In addition, Florida, South Carolina, and Wisconsin have utility-led programs with capacity targets. Cumulative MWac 10000 8000 6000 2000 0 600 400 4000 200 NY MA" 0 Installed Capacity Other PV Capacity Remaining Capacity MD HI ME NM NJ CT VA OR WA RI NC NV * Installed and remaining capacity in states with state-level program size caps Program size cap for financial incentives, includes installed capacity of all eligible solar projects ^ Maryland expanded the community solar program to permanent and excluded the cap in May 2023 NREL 15 Source: Updated from Status of State Community Solar Program Caps#16Leading Community Solar States Discussion of states with a high installed capacity of community solar#17Cumulative MWac 4,000 Community Solar Capacity in Operation and Planned in Top States Community Solar Capacity in Queue - Key States 3,500 3,000 2008 2506 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2010 Operational Planned Solar DC output capacity has been converted to AC- rated output based on 1.3 DC/AC ratio. 317 248 1352 500 924 880 439 213 366 309 162 119 257 200 0 150 88 -37 28 FL NY MN MA IL CO MD HI* NM NJ OR As of the 1st half (H1) of 2023, at least 6.9 GWac of community solar capacity is planned "Planned" in this study refers to projects that are awarded, under construction, and likely to come online in the next few years. In the top states with planned community solar projects, planned projects add up to over 50 MWac. 5.7 GWac of projects are in operation for theses 11 states Florida and New York led the market, with more about 4.5 GWac combined in the queue. Operational data come from the NREL Sharing the Sun Project List 2022. FL: Planned capacities include FPL and Duke Energy Program; NY: Planned capacities were collected via NYSERDA; MN: Planned capacities include projects under the Solar* Reward program; MA: Planned capacities include the SMART program; IL: Planned capacities include Adjustable Block Program only; CO: Planned solar capacities include projects under the Solar* Reward program; MD: Planned capacities only include reserved projects under the MD Community Solar Pilot Program; HI*: Planned capacities include Hawaiian Electric community-based renewable energy program (this program is designed for shared renewables and is not limited to community solar); NJ: Planned capacities include Phase 1 and Phase 2 Community Solar Pilot Program; OR: Planned capacities include the awarded projects under the OR community solar NREL | 17 program. The dark blue represents the cumulative rated AC power output (MW) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in the corresponding state. The light blue represents the planned capacity.#18Cumulative MWac 1,000 2,000 Capacity in Florida is Driven by Florida Power & Light's SolarTogether Program Community Solar Installed in Florida (MWac) Operational - Duke Energy Operational Other Planned 300 150 2088 1561 1561 1561 518 33 54 71 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Florida Power & Light SolarTogether: Florida Power & Light (FPL) has deployed the nation's largest community solar program, with 1,490 MWac of operational project capacity Twenty-four new utility-owned projects with a total capacity of 1,788 MWac are planned. In addition, the Florida Public Service Commission approved a stipulated agreement on building Duke Energy's 750 MWac shared solar program. Community solar projects are expected to be in service between 2022 and 2024. Six projects were completed (450 MWac) by March 2023. Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned: Florida PSC Docket 20200176, FPL Solar Together Program and Duke Energy program. The light blue represents planned capacity to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. NREL 18#19Cumulative MWac New York's Thriving Community Solar Landscape: Over 2,500 2,000 1.3 GWac in Operation with a Robust Pipeline Community Solar Capacity Installed in New York (MWac) Operational Planned 1,500 1,000 Solar DC output capacity has been converted to AC rated output based on 1.3 DC/AC ratio 500 1166 1352 2506 As of H1 2023, a cumulative total of 1,352 MWac in community solar projects were operational in New York. New York has ambitious plans for community solar, with a planned capacity exceeding 2,500 MWac. The state's goal of achieving 10 GW in solar PV installations in 2030. A significant driver behind the increasing planned capacity for community solar projects. 731 414 4 14 189 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned: New York Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA The "planned" status includes approved, pending approved, received, and submitted projects. The darker blue represents the cumulative installed capacity (MWac) for community solar in operation by 2020 in NY. The light blue represents the installed capacity (MWac) of planned community solar projects to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. NREL 19#20Cumulative MWac 1500- Pairing Community Solar With Energy Storage in New York Community Solar in New York, Paired with Storage 1000- No Battery With Battery 500- 0 2018 2019 407 705 2020 7 2021 1106 1254 The contribution of solar-plus- storage projects is small but increasing in the New York community solar market. As of 2023 H1, 3.2% (28/870) of operational community solar projects in New York are paired with storage. This represents 7.2% (97/1352) of cumulative community solar capacity in New York. 97 60 26 2022 2023-H1 Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned: New York Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA; Energy Storage: NYSERDA Statewide Distributed Solar Projects. Community solar projects paired with storage were matched based on interconnection date, zip code, contractor, and nameplate capacity. In addition, 2,506 MWac community solar projects planned, but the energy storage information is unknown. NREL 20#21Cumulative MWac 800 Minnesota's Market is Making a Strong Comeback in 2023 Community Solar Capacity Installed in Minnesota (MWac) Operational Planned 400 513 668 795 841 875 924 317 200 266 Minnesota's installed capacity is ramping up in 2023 H1 Cumulative installed capacity increased from 795 MWac in 2020 to 875 MWac in 2022, representing a total addition of 85 MWac over two years. By H1 2023, the cumulative installed capacity had reached 924 MWac, with an additional 49 MWac added in the first six months of the year. Community solar deployment in Xcel Energy's service territory contributed to the majority of the deployment in Minnesota. As of 2023 H1, projects in Xcel Energy's territory totaled: 917 MWac in operation. 317 MWac planned. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Data Source: 2016-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned*: Xcel Compliance Filling Monthly Update, DOCKET No. 13-867, and Xcel Interconnection Monthly Update. The "planned" status includes in construction, in study analysis and in application stage. The darker blue represents the cumulative installed rated AC power output (MW) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in Minnesota. The light blue represents the capacity planned to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. NREL 21#22Cumulative MWac 800 600 400 Massachusetts SMART Program Contributes 560 MWac - 64% of State's Community Solar Cumulative Deployment Community Solar Capacity Installed in Massachusetts (MWac) Operational Planned 623 825 858 880 200 338 455 249 248 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned In 2018, Massachusetts started the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) Program (after the Solar Carve-Out II Program closed in 2017). By 2023 H1, 880 MWac of community solar projects were in operation. 560 MWac installed via the SMART program, contributing 64% of the community solar installation in Massachusetts. 248 MWac planned under SMART. Community solar annual installations have dropped since 2022. 55 MWac installed since 2021. Growth rates in 2020-2021, 2021- 2022 are 32% and 4%, respectively. Data Source: 2015-2020: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned*: Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) Application Update SMART projects only. The "planned" status includes approval/pending/under construction. The darker blue categorized as the cumulative AC output (MW) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in Massachusetts. The light blue represents the AC output (MW) of planned (qualified) community solar projects to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. Projects "under review" and "waitlist" were not included. NREL 22#23Cumulative MWac 400 Of 560 MWac Operational in the SMART Program, 363 MWac are Paired with Energy Storage SMART Program Community Solar in Massachusetts, Paired with Storage 300 No Battery With Battery 200- 100- 197 363 57 199 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Data Source: Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) Application Update The SMART program enables solar- plus-storage configuration. As of 2023 H1, 38% (104/276) of operational community solar projects are paired with storage. This represents 65% (363/560) of cumulative community solar capacity in the SMART program. ➤84 solar-plus-storage projects and 101 non-storage projects are planned, as of 2023 H1. Despite the total annual installation rate drop, solar-plus-storage projects have increased significantly since 2020. NREL 23#24Cumulative MWac 300 200 100 Colorado Market Grows Steadily, With High Potential Community Solar Capacity Installed in Colorado (MWac) Operational Planned 141 159 162 94 106 35 57 366 Most community solar deployment in Colorado is through Xcel Colorado's Solar Rewards Program. As of 2023 H1, 136 MWac has been installed under the Solar Rewards Program. This program makes up 86% of the state's total installed community solar capacity. The Solar*Rewards Community Program has 366 MWac of planned projects as of 2023 H1. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned*: Solar*Rewards Renewable Energy Standard Compliance Report; Xcel projects only. The "planned" status includes approval/pending/under construction. The darker blue represents the cumulative installed capacity (MWac) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in Colorado. The light blue represents the capacity (MWac) of planned community solar projects to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. NREL 24#25Cumulative MWac New Jersey Has a Large Amount of Planned Community 100 solar, with 150 MWac Planned Projects Community Solar Capacity Installed in New Jersey (MWac) Operational Planned Solar DC output capacity has been converted to AC rated output based on 1.3 DC/AC ratio 37 35 25 2021 2022 2023-H1 150 Planned Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned: NJ Community Solar Program Phase 1 and Phase 2. The "planned" status includes approval/pending/under construction. The darker blue represents the cumulative installed capacity (MWac) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in New Jersey. The light blue represents the capacity (MWac) of planned community solar projects to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. . The New Jersey Community Solar Energy Pilot Program has awarded more than 180 MWac of projects. By 2023 H1, 35 MWac of community solar projects were in operation. While only a few projects have been completed in 2023 H1, New Jersey has set a completion deadline of November 2023 for the Pilot Year 2 project (105 projects with 127 MWac (165 MWdc) in total). This program has 152 MWac of planned projects as of 2023 H1. In 2023, New Jersey made its community solar pilot program permanent, which may increase the community solar potential in the future. NREL 25#26Cumulative MWac 400 300 200 Illinois Adjustable Block Program (IL Shines) Contributes the Most to Illinois Community Solar Growth Community Solar Capacity Installed in Illinois (MWac) Operational Planned 439 Illinois has multiple community solar related programs. IL Shines is currently leading the market growth. 207 MWac complete as of 2023 H1. ➤421 MWac pending. The Illinois Solar for All community solar program is dedicated to low- income customers. This program has less than 10 MWac in operation and added 18 MWac of planned projects as of 2023 H1. 100 176 205 213 2 2 6 67 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned: IL Shines Program and Solar for All Program. The "planned" status includes approval/pending/under construction. The darker blue represents the cumulative installed capacity (MWac) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in Illinois. The light blue represents the capacity (MWac) of planned community solar projects to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. NREL 26#27Cumulative MWac 300 200 100 Maryland Expanded Its Community Solar Program Community Solar Capacity Installed in Maryland (MWac) Operational Planned 119 71 94 53 12 29 309 Maryland expanded its community solar pilot program from 418 MWac to 583 MWac in 2021. ➤119 MWac complete as of 2023 H1. ➤ 309 MWac planned. In May 2023, Maryland passed House Bill 908 (HB 908), which makes the community solar energy generating system pilot program permanent. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 Planned Data Source: 2017-2022: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022; Planned: Community Solar Pilot Program. The "planned" status includes approval/pending/under construction. The darker blue represents the cumulative nameplate installed (MWac) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in Maryland. The light blue represents the capacity (MWac) of planned community solar projects to be installed in 2023 H1 and thereafter. NREL 27#28. • Other New Markets Oregon launched its 160-MW community solar program in 2019. As of 2023 H1, 27.5 MWac are in operation, and 88.4 MWac are pending. New Mexico Community Solar Program has a capacity of 200 MWac. Projects were selected in mid 2023 and are planned to be built over the next year to 18 months The Hawaii Public Utilities Commission approved the Hawaiian Electric Community- Based Renewable Energy Program ("CBRE") in 2018. Phase 1: 8 MW of capacity have been allocated and are under construction. Two projects with a total capacity of about 0.3 MW achieved commercial operation. Phase 2: About 250 MW of shared solar projects are in planning. NREL 28#29LMI Community Solar Discussion of states with available low- income or low- to moderate-income (LMI) community solar capacity and a large number of projects in the queue as of 2023 H1#30States With Legislation that Expands Community Solar OR WA AK Access for LMI Households State-Level LMI Community Solar Legislation 1 MT ND MN SD WI WY MI VT NH NY IA PA NE NV OH DE UT IL IN CO WV MD VA KS MO KY DC NC TN AR SC MS AL GA TX LA HO OK AZ NM Created with mapchart.net AR FL ME LMI Community Solar Legislation Source: 2011-2022: State Community Solar Landscape (2022); ^MN 2023: HF 2310 was signed into law, which opens the state's community solar program up to more residential subscribers, specifically low- to moderate-income (LMI) households. ^MD 2023 HB 908 was signed into law, which requires 40% of community solar project outputs dedicated to LMI customers. At least 17 states and the District of Columbia have passed legislation with stipulations that expand community solar access for LMI households. There are two main types of enabling policies for LMI community solar: Carve-outs in community solar programs for projects for LMI subscribers. For example, the program can set aside a certain percentage of capacity dedicated to LMI subscribers. Financial incentives and LMI adders. NREL 30#31Cumulative MWac 800 LMI Community Solar Is Growing Quickly LMI Community Solar Capacity (MWac) by Year Cumulative Install 700 Planned 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2017 2018 2019 140 175 103 44 2020 2021 2022 2023-H1 790 The LMI community solar market was small until 2019. LMI community solar contributes to 2.3% (140 MW/ 6081 MW) of the whole community solar market as of December 2022. The figure to the left captures the conservative LMI dedicated capacity based on program carve outs. For instance, if a 1-MWac project requires at least 51% to be reserved for LMI customers, the LMI capacity is calculated as 0.51 MWac. Planned Source: New York: New York Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA, for community solar projects receive expanded solar for all or Inclusive Community Sola adder. New Mexico: New Mexico Community Solar Program. Other states: Sharing the Sun Project List 2022 NREL 31#32Cumulative MWac LMI Community Solar Capacity Planned in Key States LMI Community Solar Capacity in Queue - Key States 400 350 300 250 200 150 352 160 100 Operational Planned As of 2023 H1, at least 175 MWac of community solar are dedicated to LMI customers for the 12 states. ➤ State programs typically require 10% to 51% capacity to be set aside for LMI customers. At least 790 MWac are pending of community solar dedicated to LMI community solar. 50 50 100 78 45 50 33 28 37 18 18 0 9 18 -2 1 NY MA NM NJ FL MD IL CO OR DC CT CA Operational and planned data come from the NREL Sharing the Sun Project List 2022. In addition, New York: New York Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA, for community solar projects receive expanded solar for all or Inclusive Community Sola adder. New Mexico: New Mexico Community Solar Program. The dark blue represents the cumulative rated AC power output (MW) for community solar in operation by the corresponding year in the corresponding state. The light blue represents the planned capacity. Projects under review and waitlisted were not included in the figure. NREL 32#33The Subscriber Value Proposition Summary of the results of analysis of subscription contract value. Estimated subscriber value shows that most subscribers now save money with community solar