Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

6 of 8

Creator

Baird logo
Baird

Category

Published

October 2018

Slides

Transcriptions

#1PROJECT BRONCO SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY October 7, 2018 TAKE Confidential - Preliminary Draft BAIRD#2PRO FORMA AMGP CORP. VS PEERS ■ Pro Forma AMGP has positive characteristics that may result in improved valuation levels, primarily: A traditional C-Corp structure with traditional governance favored by investors DCF, EBITDA and cash distribution growth superior to its potential new corporate peers Conservative balance sheet with distribution coverage and leverage superior to its potential new corporate peers A larger float, liquidity and access to institutional capital - Pro Forma AMGP vs. Peers Across Key Metrics '19'21 EBITDA Growth 19.6% 12.9% 11.3x 2019 FV / EBITDA 16.6% 12.0x 10,2x '19'21 DPU Growth 24.4% 9.1x 9.5% 2020 FV / EBITDA PF AMGP 14.1% 11.4x 7.8x Midstream C-Corps Net Debt/2018E EBITDA 3.1x 7.1% 3.7x 2019E Yield 5.5% 2.7x Source: S&P Capital IQ. Midstream C-Corp peers include OKE, TRGP, WMB. E&P-Sponsored MLPS include: CNXM, EQM, HESM, NBLX, WES. 7.9% E&P-Sponsored MLPs Treliminar. Draft 2.3x Net Debt / 2019E EBITDA 9.2% 3.3x 11. 2020E Yield 6.2% BAIRD Project Bronco 2,0x Page 1#3PRO FORMA AMGP CORP VS. PEERS Selected Midstream Valuations C-Corp E&P G&P OKE (1) (2) (3) TRGP WMB Median CNXM EQM HESM NBLX WES Median AMGP PF AM SQ Market Stats Market Cap $28,216 12,874 33,432 $28,216 $1,294 6,446 1,274 1,601 7,098 $1,601 Firm Value $5,562 $36,748 18,386 59,953 $36,748 $1,766 9,476 1,218 2,769 12,065 $2,769 $8,893 $11,171 $6,963 Firm Value / Adj EBITDA 2019E 14.4x 11.7x 12.0x 8.2x 9.3x 11.0x 12.0x 11.4x 10.2x 11.1x 10,2x 11.3x 2020E 9.9x 125x 9.7x 11.4x 6.9x 7.7x 8.6x 7.8x 9.8x 7.8x 9.1x 8.5x Source: S&P Capital 10 SEC Filings and Antero management, Market data is as of October 5, 2018 EBITDA less projected GP/IDR distributions. Valuation Stats Price / (2) CAFD per LPs 2019E 2020E 15.1x 13.1x 10.3x 9.7x 9.5x 13.1x 10.8x 10.1x 10.4x 10.1x 12.9x 10.8x 10.8x 12.8x 11.4x 12.0x 9.9x 8.1x 8.2x 8.5x 10.1x 8.5x 8.8x 10.3x Yield 2019E 5.2% 5.8% 6.2% 5.5% 5.5% 6.2% 7.9% 9.5% 7.1% 6.5% 8.9% 2020E 7.9% 7.1% 6.4% 6.2% 9.0% 10.8% 8.1% 7.8% 9.3% 9.0% 9.2% 7.5% 5.7% Financial Health 2019E Dist. Coverage 1.3x 1.3x 1.7x 1.3x 1.5x 1.1x 1.1x 1.9x 1.1x 1.1x 1.2x Preliminary Draft 1.2x Net Debt / 2018E EBITDA 3.5x 3.7x 4.4x 3.7x 2.5x 3.0x NM 2.3x 3.4x 2.7x 3.1x 2.0x (4) Defined as Price per LP unit divided by cash available for distribution to the LP unit holders under a full payout scenario. Assumes AMGP purchases 100% of AM public units (188.1 million on a fully diluted basis) with a combination of equity and cash; AMGP issues 301.3 million shares to current AM unitholders. Also assumes that AMGP issues 17.354 million shares in exchange for 100% of the Series B units. Represents pro forma net debt/ LTM EBITDA as of 1/1/19. Growth Metrics 2019E-21E Growth CAGR EBITDA 13% 16% 6% 13% 20% 12% 33% 17% 10% 17% 20% BAIRD 21% Project Bronco DPU 10% 5% 12% 10% 15% 9% 14% 20% 5% 14% 24% 19% Page 2#4ILLUSTRATIVE HAS / GETS ANALYSIS Price / DCF per Unit Static Multiple Case Trading Multiple Expansion Cases Status Quo AM DCF/LP Unit (AM Management Case) (1) Estimated Price / DCF per LP Implied Status Quo AM Common Unit Price Pro Forma AMGP Corp DCF / Share Estimated Price / DCF per LP Implied Pro Forma AMGP Common Share Price Proposed Equity Exchange Ratio Implied PF AMGP Corp Common Share Price per AM Common Unit Add: Cash Consideration per AR-Owned AM Unit All-in Value per AR-Owned AM Unit % Value Uplift Midpoint of Current AM & C-Corp Comps C-Corp Peer Median (2) Price / DCF per LP 12.6x 13.1x 2019E $2.75 12.0x $32.99 $1.64 12.0x $19.70 1.6023x $31.56 $3.00 $34.56 5% 2019E 9% 14% Preliminary: Praft 2020E $3.24 12.0x $38.86 $1.99 12.0x $23.91 1.6023x $38.31 $3.00 $41.31 6% 2020E 11% 15% 2021E Value Uplift Source: Antero management projections and S&P Capital IQ. As of October 5, 2018. (1) AM status quo 2019E Price / DCF to LPS per Wall Street consensus estimates. Midpoint of (1) AM status quo 2019E Price / DCF to LPs and (2) median 2019€ Price / DCF to LPS for midstream C-corp peers (OKE, TRGP, WMB) per Wall Street consensus estimates. Median 2019E Price / DCF to LPS for midstream C-corp peers (OKE, TRGP, WMB); per Wall Street consensus estimates. $3.75 12.0x $45.03 $2.37 12.0x $28.40 1.6023x $45.50 $3.00 $48.50 8% 2021E 12% 17% BAIRD 2022E Project Bronco $4.29 12.0x $51.52 $2.75 12.0x $33.06 1.6023x $52.98 $3.00 $55.98 9% 2022E 13% 18% Page 3#5ILLUSTRATIVE HAS / GETS ANALYSIS (CONT.) EV/EBITDA (1) (2) (3) Static Multiple Case (5) Trading Multiple Expansion Cases Status Quo AM Adj. EBITDA (AM Management Case) Estimated EV / Adj. EBITDA Implied Status Quo AM Common Unit Price (3) Pro Forma AMGP Corp EBITDA Estimated EV / EBITDA (2) (3) Implied Pro Forma AMGP Corp Common Share Price Proposed Equity Exchange Ratio Implied PF AMGP Corp Common Share Price per AM Common Unit Add: Cash Consideration per AR-Owned AM Unit All-in Value per AR-Owned AM Unit % Value Uplift / (Decline) Source: Antero management projections and S&P Capital IQ. As of October 5, 2018. EBITDA less projected GP/IDR distributions. Midpoint of Current AM & C-Corp Comps C-Corp Peer Median Price / DCF per LP 10.9x 12.0x 2019E $753 9.9x $30.81 $989 9.9x $14.69 1.6023x $23.54 $3.00 $26.54 (14%) 2019E (3%) 8% Preliminar. Prant 2020E $867 9.9x $33.70 $1,222 9.9x $18.12 1.6023x $29.04 $3.00 $32.04 (5%) 2020E AM status quo 2019E EV/ Adj. EBITDA per Wall Street consensus estimates. Adjusts for projected net debt as of January 1 of each calendar year. Midpoint of (1) AM status quo 2019E EV / Adj. EBITDA and (2) median 2019E EV/EBITDA for midstream C-corp peers (OKE, TRGP, WMB): per Wall Street consensus estimates. Median 2019E EV / EBITDA for midstream C-corp peers (OKE, TRGP, WMB) per Wall Street consensus estimates. 7% 19% 2021E $952 9.9x $35.38 $1,413 9.9x Value Uplift $20.97 1.6023x $33.61 $3.00 $36.61 3% 2021E 17% 30% BAIRD 2022E Project Bronco $1,053 9.9x $39.28 $1,642 9.9x $25.15 1.6023x $40.30 $3.00 $43.30 10% 2022E 24% 38% Page 4#6ILLUSTRATIVE HAS / GETS ANALYSIS (CONT.) Dividend Yield Static Multiple Case Trading Multiple Expansion Cases Status Quo AM Distribution / LP Unit (AM Management Case) Estimated Distribution Yield Implied Status Quo AM Common Unit Price Pro Forma AMGP Corp DCF/Share Estimated Dividend Yield Implied Pro Forma AMGP Corp Common Share Price Proposed Equity Exchange Ratio Implied PF AMGP Corp Common Share Price per AM Common Unit Add: Cash Consideration per AR-Owned AM Unit All-in Value per AR-Owned AM Unit % Value Uplift / (Dedine) Midpoint of Current AM & C-Corp Comps C-Corp Peer Median Price / DCF per LP 6.5% 5.5% 2019E $2.21 7.5% $29.43 $1.25 7.5% $16.58 1.6023x $26.57 $3.00 $29.57 0% 2019E 14% 33% Trellminara Graft 2020E $2.85 7.5% $37.95 $1.61 7.5% $21.39 1.6023x $34.27 $3.00 $37.27 (2%) 2020E 12% 31% 2021E Value Uplift Source: Antero management projections and S&P Capital IQ. As of October 5, 2018. (1) AM status quo 2019E distribution yield per Wall Street consensus estimates. Midpoint of (1) AM status quo 2019E distribution yield and (2) median 2019E dividend yield for midstream C-corp peers (OKE, TRGP, WMB): per Wall Street consensus estimates. Median 2019E dividend yield for midstream C-corp peers (OKE, TRGP, WMB); per Wall Street consensus estimates. $3.42 7.5% $45.54 $1.93 7.5% $25.67 1.6023x $41.13 $3.00 $44.13 (3%) 2021E 11% 30% ***** BAIRD 2022E Project Bronco $4.10 7.5% $54.59 $2.31 7.5% $30.80 1.6023x $49.36 $3.00 $52.36 (4%) 2022E 10% 29% Page 5#7ILLUSTRATIVE IMPLIED VALUE CREATION ANALYSIS (CONT.) Sum of the parts discounted cash flow analysis AM Standalone DCF Analysis + AMGP Standalone DCF Analysis + Tax & G&A Savings (¹)(2) Total Implied Equity Value (3) $5,753 - $7,629 $3,751 - $5,045 $420 Contiteuster, Preliminary Draft $11,509 Value Creation Summary (3) Total implied equity value Pro forma shares outstanding (4) Implied value / common share Current AMGP price % Increase Implied pro forma price / common share x AR Equity exchange ratio Pro forma equity value /AM common unit + $3.00 cash per unit Total value per unit Current AM price / common unit % Increase Note: Reflects closing prices as of October 5, 2018. Excludes $0.41/common unit special dividend to AM unaffiliated common unitholders. Tax savings are calculated per the Forecast for 2019-2022, Baird conservatively assumes a 25% annual decline in tax benefit thereafter, ending in 2026. Assumes present value date of 1/1/19, mid-period convention and pro forma AMGP WACC. (2) G&A savings are discounted to 1/1/19 using mid-period convention, pro forma AMGP WACC and a 0% terminal growth rate. (3) Total implied equity value midpoint of AM Standalone DCF Analysis + midpoint of AMGP Standalone DCF Analysis + Tax & G&A Savings. Reflects a 1.618 equity exchange rate; AMGP issues 304.3 million shares to current AM unitholders. Also reflects 17.354 million AMGP shares issued to Series Bholders. BAIRD $11,509 507.9 $22.66 $17.51 29.4% $22.66 1.6023x $36.31 $3.00 $39.31 $29.74 32.2% Project Bronco Page 6#8PRO FORMA AMGP WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL ANALYSIS H ($ in millions) 3西西安市西西园 室 (1) [2] (3) (4) Cost of Equity (6) Cost of Debt (7) Cost of Capital Components Risk-free Interest Rate Levered Beta (2) Market Premium Size Premium Cost of Equity Cost of Debt (9) (5) (3) Revolving Credit Facility 5.375% Senior Notes Due 2024 (8) Tax Rate After Tax Cost of Debt Amount Outstanding (6) $1,396 650 $2,046 3.3% 1.43 6.9% 0.9% 14.0% Interest (2) Rate 3.3% 5.2% 3.9% 25.3% 2.9% Source: AM & AMGP filings and Bloomberg. Represents estimated 20-year treasury rate as of October 5, 2018 Represents midpoint of AM & AMGP two-year levered equity betas as of February 23, 2018, the date prior to the announcement of the Special Committee Formation, Large company stock total returns minus long-term government bond income returns as computed by Duff & Phelps LLC. Source: Duff & Phelps LLC size premium based on pro forma AMGP's equity market value as of October 5, 2018. PF AMGP Market Value of Equity PF AMGP Net Debt Outstanding Total PF AMGP Firm Value Implied Weighted Average Cost of Capital ("WACC") PF AMGP Equity Market Value / Firm Value x Cost of Equity Cost of Equity Contribution Preliminary Graft PF AMGP Net Debt / Firm Value x Cost of Debt Cost of Debt Contribution Total Implied WACC ■ (5) Cost of equity is calculated using CAPM (e.g. cost of equity risk-free interest rate levered equity beta" market risk premium size premium). Reflects debt outstanding as of June 30, 2018, the most recent public disclosure, unless otherwise noted. BAIRD Interest rate for publicly traded senior notes represents the yield-to-worst as of October 5, 2018. Includes $626 million in cash issued to AM unitholders: $3.00/unit to all AM common unitholders plus a $0.41 / unit special dividend to unaffiliated AM common unitholders, and estimated transaction fees. Estimated pro forma AMGP corporate tax rate. Project Bronco $8,893 2,046 $10,938 81.3% 14.0% As a result of its weighted average cost of capital analysis, Baird utilized 12.0% for purposes of discounting tax and G&A savings 11.4% 18.7% 2.9% 0.5% 12.0% Page 7

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Freightos Results Presentation Deck image

Freightos Results Presentation Deck

Industrials

Hexagon Purus Results Presentation Deck image

Hexagon Purus Results Presentation Deck

Industrials

Moelis & Company Investment Banking Pitch Book image

Moelis & Company Investment Banking Pitch Book

Financial Services

Lumen Investor Day Presentation Deck image

Lumen Investor Day Presentation Deck

Communication Services

Context Therapeutics Investor Presentation Deck image

Context Therapeutics Investor Presentation Deck

Healthcare

Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book image

Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book

Financial Services

Marti Results Presentation Deck image

Marti Results Presentation Deck

Technology

UBS Results Presentation Deck image

UBS Results Presentation Deck

Financial Services