#1ONREL NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY The Global Solar Photovoltaic Supply Chain and Bottom-UP Cost Model Results Michael Woodhouse, David Feldman, Brittany Smith, Jarett Zuboy, Jay Huggins, Vignesh Ramasamy and Robert Margolis World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC) Milan, Italy September 26, 2022#2Analysis Disclaimer These manufacturing cost model results (“Data”) are provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory ("NREL"), which is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy LLC (“Alliance”) for the U.S. Department of Energy (the “DOE”). It is recognized that disclosure of these Data is provided under the following conditions and warnings: (1) these Data have been prepared for reference purposes only; (2) these Data consist of forecasts, estimates or assumptions made on a best-efforts basis, based upon present expectations; and (3) these Data were prepared with existing information and are subject to change without notice. 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NREL 2#3Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the United States Inflation Reduction Act 7 Conclusions NREL 3#4NREL's Solar + Storage Technoeconomic Analysis Portfolio Bottom-Up Component Cost Models Modules Crystalline Silicon Thin-Film System Capital Cost Models ($) Storage PV Systems Batteries Solar Fuels PV Plus Storage Illustration by Al Hicks, NREL Photo from iStock, 1033236964 Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 56318 Photo from iStock, 932140864 Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 60073 Solar and Storage Project Pro Forma Analysis Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Metric Any applicable incentives FIT or PPA Revenues Photo from iStock, 1128871378 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Metric Residual Value (+/-) + Years Any preventative and routine O&M, including asset management Upfront Capital Cost for System Installation Any corrective O&M including battery and inverter replacements and unplanned weather-related events https://www.nrel.gov/solar/solar-cost-analysis.html#5Solar and Storage System Components Scoped for More Detailed Analyses in the Future • • Inverters Storage (Beginning with Batteries) Structural Balance of System Electrical Balance of System Labor Costs and Workforce Needs for Installations and Manufacturing ✓ Module https://www.nrel.gov/solar/solar-cost-analysis.html#6Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the United States Inflation Reduction Act 7 Conclusions NREL | 6#72022 Commissioned Capacity Facility Locations and Manufacturing Capacities Photovoltaic Component Manufacturing Global, 2022 Canada United States of America Manufacturing Capacity (MW) 500,000 Mexico El Salvador Dominican Puerto Rico Rep. Argentina Ingots Wafers 400,000 Cells Modules Thin film 300,000 Baril Germany United Kingdom Norway Lithuan Hungary Ukraine Russia Czech Republic Switzerland Slowenia San Marino Serbia France Georgia Croatia Turkey Portugal- Maly Kosovo Macedonis Jordan Tunisia Pakistan Algeria Egypt Saudi Arabia Polysilicon Manufacturing Capacity (Tons) South Africa South Korea China Japan Taiwan Philippines Thailand Cambodia India Bangladesh UAE Qustar Bahrain Kenya Singapore Indon 8% 7% 2022 Polysilicon 330 GW-dc 2022 Ingot and Wafer 420 GW-dc 78% 97% 9% 2022 Cell Conversion 440 GW-dc 5% 9% 2022 Module Assembly 510 GW-dc 86% 4% 6% 21% 11% 2022 Thin Film 13% 13 GW-dc 200,000 100,000 638,000 450,000 -300,000 150,000 < 10,000 Billy J. Roberts | 2022 SEP 09 ONREL NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Maps generated by Billy Roberts (NREL) using data from the BNEF PV Equipment Manufacturers Database, August 2022. 45% 80% ■ North America ■ China ■ ASEAN ■South Korea and Japan ■ Europe ■Rest of World#82022 Commissioned Capacity Facility Locations and Manufacturing Capacities Photovoltaic Component Manufacturing Asia, 2022 Xinjiang Pakistan Xizang Heilongjiang Inner Mongolia Liaoning Beijing Tianjin Japan Hebel South Korea Ningxia Shonx Shandong Qinghal Gansu China Shaanxi Henan 1.l. Jiangsu Anhui Shanghai Hubel Sichuan Chongqing Hunan Jiangxi Zhejiang Guizhou Fujian India Bangladesh Yunnan Manufacturing Capacity (MW) 190,000 Ingots Wafers Cells Modules 140,000 Thin film Polysilicon Manufacturing Capacity (Tons) Guangxi Guangdong Hainan Thailand Cambodia Vietnam Taiwan Philippines: 8% 7% 2022 Polysilicon 330 GW-dc 2022 Ingot and Wafer 420 GW-dc 78% 97% 9% 2022 Cell Conversion 440 GW-dc 5% 9% 2022 Module Assembly 510 GW-dc 86% 4% 6% 21% 11% 2022 Thin Film 13 GW-dc 13% 90,00 40,000 10,000 638,000 450,000 300,000 150,000 <10,000 Singapore Malaysia Billy J. Roberts | 2022 SEP 09 ONREL NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Maps generated by Billy Roberts (NREL) using data from the BNEF PV Equipment Manufacturers Database, August 2022. 45% 80% ■ North America ■ China ■ ASEAN ■South Korea and Japan ■ Europe ■Rest of World#9Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the United States Inflation Reduction Act 7 Conclusions NREL 9#10Overview of the Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) PV Module Supply Chain Polysilicon Production Production and Distillation of Trichlorosilane Crystalline Silicon Module Production Ingot Production Frame Glass PV Module Encapsulant Silica (SiO2) Mining Metallurgical Grade Silicon (98-99% silicon) Source of figure: NREL. Deposition Polysilicon Chunk Wafer Slicing Solar Junction Box Cells Encapsulant Back Sheet or Glass .... Solar Cell Conversion https://www.nrel.gov/solar/solar-cost-analysis.html#11NREL Cost Model Structure for Manufacturing and Delivery TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP (TCO) INPUTS Inputs For Calculations of Direct Costs • ⚫ Tool throughput including downtime . . . • Equipment price and training •Facilitation and building • Materials and consumables Utilities (Electricity and Water) • Waste disposal (Wastewater and exhaust air) • Labor: Direct operators and supervisors • Maintenance • Account of yield loss Location Specific Costs Considerations • GAAP AND IFRS ACCOUNTING STANDARDS Variable (cash) costs within the cost of goods sold (COGS) • Input materials • Direct labor • Utilities Delivered Maintenance of equipment and facilities Minimum Sustainable Fixed (non-cash) costs Price . Equipment . Building and facilitation • Installation and training (MSP) • . • Local wage rates: Direct operators and supervisors • • Local utility rates: Electricity and water . Leased or purchased building • Local considerations for CapEx and materials Source of figure: NREL. Please see: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72134.pdf • COGS to Delivered MSP • Research and Development (R&D) Sales, General, Administration (S,G, & A) Profit across the supply chain • Taxes, tariffs and import/export duties (Input per destination) •Sea- and land-based shipping, port entry fees, warehouse, and insurance (Input per destination) NREL 11#12Going From Direct Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) to Delivered MSP 1. Direct Cost of Goods Sold • Materials Labor and Utilities Maintenance 2. Overhead and Profit • + • Research and Development (R&D) Sales, General and administration (S, G, &A) Gross and Operating Profit • • Equipment and Facilities Other Revenues and Losses (Not Included) Factory Gate Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP) 3. Taxes and Trade Duties . • • Sales, value-added or other taxes Customs or other import duties Anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) Input per source and destination + 4. Shipping and Delivery • Sea shipping: Modules per container and shipping container costs Land shipping: Miles from port to destination and cost per mile/kilometer Insurance, entry bond, shipping fees Warehouse Input per source and destination Delivered Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP) NREL 12#13Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the United States Inflation Reduction Act 7 Conclusions NREL 13#14Total of Results from NREL's Bottom-Up Cost Models September 12, 2022 NREL NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Total of Factory Gate MSPs for Global Solar PV Supply Chains Sum of Mean Results For Polysilicon, Wafer, Cell and Module Assembly Cost Models for Each Country Overhead and Profit Tariffs or BCD for Equipment and Materials Depreciation of Cap Ex (Equipment and Facilities) 2022 U.S. Dollars per Wdc $0.38 $0.36 Maintenance $0.058 $0.33 Utilities $0.33 $0.054 Labor $0.050 Materials $0.039 $0.049 $0.003 $0.26 $0.27 $0.28 $0.039 $0.27 $0.27 $0.039 $0.039 $0.042 $0.040 $0.040 $0.040 $0.076 $0.039 $0.021 $0.066 $0.039 $0.035 $0.039 $0.039 $0.039 $0.035 $0.063 $0.055 $0.047 $0.022 $0.025 $0.025 $0.035 $0.043 $0.026 $0.011 $0.152 $0.148 $0.152 $0.152 $0.152 $0.152 $0.152 $0.152 $0.152 United States China Malaysia Thailand Vietnam India South Korea Japan Germany NREL 14#15Differences in the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for Nationally-Integrated PV Supply Chains NREL Manufacturing Cost Model Results Including Polysilicon, Monocrystalline Ingot and Wafer, and PERC Cell and Module Delta From the China Baseline ($/W-dc) $0.006 $0.052 $0.004 $0.004 $0.003 $0.004 $0.005 -$0.001 United States $0.013 $0.004 $0.004 $0.037 $0.032 $0.013 $0.044 $0.044 $0.054 $0.004 $0.004 $0.004 $0.004 $0.004 ASEAN (Avg) -$0.005 India South Korea Japan -$0.009 ■Delivered Materials ■Labor Utilities Equipment and Facilities CapEx and Maintenance Europe (Germany) NREL 15#16Differences in the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for Nationally-Integrated PV Supply Chains NREL Manufacturing Cost Model Results Including Polysilicon, Monocrystalline Ingot and Wafer, and PERC Cell and Module Difference From the China Baseline (%) 4% 488% 10% 15% 10% 2% 3% -4% United States ASEAN (Avg) -51% Delivered Materials 60% India 10% 2% 343% 299% 60% 10% 2% South Korea 414% 243% 202% Japan 10% 2% -81% Labor Utilities Equipment and Facilities CapEx and Mainten an ce 10% Europe (Germany) NREL 16#17Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the United States Inflation Reduction Act 7 Conclusions NREL 17#18Monte Carlo Analysis of Multiple Input Variables for the U.S. Normal Distributions of Multiple Input Variables for PERC (1,000 Samples) One standard deviation equals +/- 1% change in relative cell and module efficiency One standard deviation equals +/- 15% change in CapEx One standard deviation equals +/- 20% change in labor intensity One standard deviation equals +/- 5% Multi-Factor Input Distributions for the US 4000 (0) 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 Factory Gate MSP per Watt ($/W-dc) 0.35 0.36 0.37 change in factory downtime and throughput One standard deviation equals +/- 10% change in factory production volume NREL 18#192022 U.S. Dollars per Watt-dc Monte Carlo Analysis Results for Nationally-Integrated PV Manufacturing Supply Chains Aggregated Factory Gate Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP) Calculations for Polysilicon to Monocrystalline PERC Modules Samples Created Using Normal Input Distributions for Efficiency, CapEx, Labor Intensity, Downtime, and Throughput $0.44 $0.42 $0.40 $0.38 $0.36 $0.34 $0.32 $0.30 $0.28 $0.26 $0.24 United States China | Malaysia Thailand Vietnam India South Korea Japan Germany NREL 19#20Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the United States Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) 7 Conclusions NREL 20#21Incentives for PV Installations Within the United States Following Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) ITC in the United States 2022-2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Residential 30% 26% 22% 0% 0% Commercial 30% 30% 4.5-22.5% 3-15% 0% Utility 30% 30% 4.5-22.5% 3-15% 0% Domestic Content +10% +10% +10% +10% +10% PTC Alternative in the United States Base PTC 0.5-3.2 c/kWh Domestic Content +0.1-0.3 c/kWh 0.6-3.2 c/kWh +0.1-0.3 c/kWh 0.5-2.4 c/kWh +0.0-0.3 0.3-1.6 c/kWh +0.0-0.2 0.0 c/kWh 0.0 c/kWh c/kWh c/kWh Sources: (1) United States House of Representatives Resolution 5376: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text (2) IRA Solar Energy and Energy Storage Provisions", SEIA, 2022: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/inflation-reduction-act-solar-energy-and-energy-storage-provisions-summary#222022-2029 $3/kg Incentives for PV Manufacturing Within the United States Following Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Manufacturing PTC in the United States Polysilicon 2030 2031 2032 2033 $2.3/kg $1.5/kg $0.8/kg $0/kg Wafers $12/m² $9/m² $6/m² $3/m² $0/m² Solar Cells 4¢/W 3¢/W 2¢/W 1¢/W 0¢/W Assembly 7¢/W 5.3¢/W 3.5¢/W 1.8¢/W 0c/W Thin Film 18¢/W (projected) Backsheets $0.4/m² $0.3/m² $0.2/m² $0.1/m² $0/m² 0.25 11.0 ¢/W 0.19-8.3 ¢/W 0.13—3.3 ¢/W 0.06-2.8¢/W O¢/W Inverters Sources: (1) United States House of Representatives Resolution 5376: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text (2) IRA Solar Energy and Energy Storage Provisions", SEIA, 2022: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/inflation-reduction-act-solar-energy-and-energy-storage-provisions-summary#23Presentation Outline 1 Introduction to NREL and Solar and Storage Technoeconomic Analysis 2 Global PV Manufacturing Capacities Across the Supply Chain 3 Bottom-Up PV Manufacturing Cost Modelling Methodology 4 Results for Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer, Solar Cell and Module Assembly 5 Monte Carlo Analysis of PV Manufacturing Costs 6 Future Analysis Including the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act 7 Conclusions NREL 23#24Conclusions • Market price is expected to lower or higher than minimum sustainable price (MSP) during periods of oversupply or undersupply. These are common symptoms for PV. Therefore, MSP is an important metric for long-term technology planning and regional costs comparisons. . Significant capital investments and skilled engineers are required to establish successful new manufacturing endeavors. Timelines are 6 months to four years, depending upon the step in the supply chain. • Variations in MSP are to be expected due to uncertainty in input data. Variable labor ($/hr) and electricity rates ($/kWh) are currently believed to be the greatest source of differences in regional PV manufacturing costs. Variations are also expected for delivery of input materials and equipment. . • The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act presents many opportunities for accelerated demand and manufacturing within the United States. Please follow-up to learn more! https://www.nrel.gov/solar/solar-cost-analysis.html#25Thank You NREL Transforming ENERGY#261 2 3 4 Presentation Outline 5 6 7 Supplementary Information NREL 26#27Funding Disclaimer www.nrel.gov NREL/PR-7A40-84036 This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36- 08G028308. Funding provided by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. NREL Transforming ENERGY#28Solar PV Module Technologies Within The NREL Portfolio Crystalline Silicon Thin Film • Polysilicon production (Siemens with Trichlorosilane (TCS) and Fluidized • CdTe • CIGS Multi-junction (Two and four terminal) All III-Vs and III-Vs on Si • All Perovskites • Bed Reactor (FBR)) Ingot and wafering: Czochralski (Cz), directional solidification (DS), and kerfless technologies yielding Cz and DS equivalents • Cell conversion: Monofacial and bifacial PERC, TOPCon, HJT, and IBC by screen-printing, electroplating, and busbarless • Module assembly: Standard tabbing and stringing, busbarless, and shingling • III-Vs • Perovskites Source of figure: NREL. Please see: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72134.pdf • Perovskites on Si NREL 28#29Process Flow for Polysilicon Production Metallurgical Grade (MG) Silicon Si 98-99% Purity (98% to 2N) Production and distillation of trichlorosilane, SiHCI 3 Source: Alibaba Polysilicon Si 99.99999-99.999999999% (7-11 N) purity for Solar 11-12 N purity for Semiconductor Source: Hemlock Semiconductor Hydrochloric Acid HCI Harvesting, breaking, washing/etching, and packaging. Source: Daqo Siemens Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) 诚信敬业创新聞部 閉 Source: Daqo Source of figure: NREL. https://www.energy.gov/policy/securing-americas-clean-energy-supply-chain Rod Bell Jar Source: GCL Poly#30Summary of Results from NREL's Bottom-Up Cost Models September 12, 2022 ONREL NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Polysilicon Direct Production Costs Across the Globe Sum of Results From NREL's Polysilicon Cost Model Run for Each Country Import Costs for Equipment and Materials Depreciation of CapEx (Equipment and Facilities) Maintenance $28.0 $26.0 $2.6 $0.8 $2.6 2022 U.S. Dollars per kg Utilities Labor $0.8 Materials $20.3 $18.9 $18.3 $2.6 $17.1 $17.0 $17.3 $2.6 $14.0 $0.8 $2.6 $12.4 $2.6 $0.9 $2.6 $2.6 $0.8 $14.3 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $6.6 $2.4 $4.0 $6.6 $0.7 $4.6 $4.6 $5.0 $2.0 $2.7 $1.5 $1.8 $1.4 $0.2 $0.2 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $8.8 $8.4 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 $8.8 United States China Malaysia Thailand Vietnam India South Korea Japan Germany NREL | 30#31Process Flow for Ingot and Wafer Production Czochralski Process 1. Polysilicon feedstock: Siemens chunk. FBR granules are also sometimes added. 2. Load Siemens chunk (and sometimes FBR granules) into crucible. 3. Melting of polysilicon, doping. Etch (recondition) cropping and squaring scrap 10: 12. Wafering with diamond Source of figure: NREL. wire: 60-80 μm of kerf loss per cut wafer. Please see: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72134.pdf 4. Introduction of the seed crystal. 5. Beginning of crystal growth. 6. Crystal pulling. 7. Extraction of crystal ingot from puller with some pot scrap left in crucible. Boule chords. Boule crown and tail. 11. Gluing to glass substrate. 10. Grinding and polishing 9. Bricking or squaring of ingot corners. (band sawing). 8. Cropping (band sawing) of silicon ingot. 13. Chemical bath to dissolve glue and release wafers from glass. 14. Cleaning, singulation, and inspection of 160-180 μm monocrystalline silicon wafers having a surface area equal to 244 to 440 cm2 per wafer. The net silicon utilization (including all kerf and yield losses, and with crown, tail, and chords recycling) is calculated to be around 13 g for 244 cm² wafers to 25 g for 440 cm². For a cell efficiency of 22-25%, this would be 2.4-2.8 g/W(pc). NREL 31#32Summary of Results from NREL's Bottom-Up Cost Models September 12, 2022 ONREL NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY $0.068 $0.001 Ingot and Wafer Direct Production Costs Across the Globe Sum of Results From NREL's Ingot and Wafer Cost Model for Each Country Import Costs for Equipment and Materials Depreciation of CapEx (Equipment and Facilities) Maintenance Utilities Labor $0.078 $0.072 $0.015 $0.066 $0.015 2022 U.S. Dollars per Wdc $0.015 Materials $0.015 $0.051 $0.054 $0.050 $0.051 $0.051 $0.001 $0.019 $0.005 $0.016 $0.016 $0.009 $0.015 $0.013 $0.015 $0.015 $0.018 $0.016 $0.013 $0.012 $0.006 $0.006 $0.006 $0.006 $0.009 $0.003 $0.002 $0.002 $0.001 $0.001 $0.028 $0.027 $0.028 $0.028 $0.028 $0.028 $0.028 $0.028 $0.028 NREL 32 United States China Malaysia Thailand Vietnam India South Korea Japan Germany#33PERC Cell Process Flow 1. Scan wafer. 2. Saw damage removal, surface texturization, and pre-diffusion clean. 3. POCI3 diffusion. 4. Laser-driven selective emitter formation. 8. Laser opening of dielectric layers for ohmic contact between Si and AI BSF. 7. PECVD of silicon nitride (SiNX) on the front and back for frontside anti-reflection, backside reflection, and surface passivation for the solar cell. 6. High temperature silicon oxide (SiO2) formation and PECVD or ALD of aluminum oxide (AIO* or Al2O3) for rear side silicon- aluminum surface passivation. 5. Wet chemical PSG etch, rear side planarization, and isolation etch by rear side phosphorous removal. 9. Screen-print Ag and Al pastes for tabbing and BSF formation, respectively. Screen-print Ag pastes for fingers and optional busbars on front. Cofire. 10. Optional hydrogenation step under illumination (or bias) that improves efficiency and passivates and stabilizes defects responsible for LID. 11. J-V measurement, visual inspection, and cell binning. 20-24% Cells Source of figure: NREL. Please see: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72134.pdf