Lumen Investor Day Presentation Deck

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

11 of 50

Creator

Lumens.com logo
Lumens.com

Category

Communication

Published

June 2023

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Repositioning Lumen for Stabilization and Growth JUNE 5, 2023 LUMEN INVESTOR DAY 2023#2Forward-Looking Statements Except for historical and factual information, the matters set forth in this presentation and other of our oral or written statements identified by words such as "estimates," "expects," "anticipates," "believes," "plans," "intends," "will," and similar expressions are forward-looking statements as defined by the federal securities laws, and are subject to the "safe harbor" protections thereunder. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and are based on current expectations only, are inherently speculative, and are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. Actual events and results may differ materially from those anticipated, estimated, projected or implied by us in those statements if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect. Factors that could affect actual results include but are not limited to: the effects of intense competition from a wide variety of competitive providers, including decreased demand for our more mature service offerings and increased pricing pressures; the effects of new, emerging or competing technologies, including those that could make our products less desirable or obsolete; our ability to successfully and timely attain our key operating imperatives, including simplifying and consolidating our network, simplifying and automating our service support systems, attaining our Quantum Fiber buildout goals, strengthening our relationships with customers and attaining projected cost savings; our ability to safeguard our network, and to avoid the adverse impact of cyber-attacks, security breaches, service outages, system failures, or similar events impacting our network or the availability and quality of our services; the effects of ongoing changes in the regulation of the communications industry, including the outcome of legislative, regulatory or judicial proceedings relating to content liability standards, intercarrier compensation, universal service, service standards, broadband deployment, data protection, privacy and net neutrality; our ability to generate cash flows sufficient to fund our financial commitments and objectives, including our capital expenditures, operating costs, debt repayments, pension contributions and other benefits payments; our ability to effectively retain and hire key personnel and to successfully negotiate collective bargaining agreements on reasonable terms without work stoppages; changes in customer demand for our products and services, including increased demand for high-speed data transmission services; our ability to successfully maintain the quality and profitability of our existing product and service offerings, to introduce profitable new offerings on a timely and cost-effective basis and to transition customers from our legacy products to our newer offerings; our ability to successfully and timely implement our corporate strategies, including our deleveraging and buildout strategies; our ability to successfully and timely consummate the pending divestiture of our European, Middle Eastern and African business, to successfully and timely realize the anticipated benefits from that divestiture and our divestitures completed in 2022, and to successfully operate and transform our retained business after such divestitures; changes in our operating plans, corporate strategies, or capital allocation plans, whether based upon changes in our cash flows, cash requirements, financial performance, financial position, market or regulatory conditions, or otherwise; the impact of any future material acquisitions or divestitures that we may transact; the negative impact of increases in the costs of our pension, healthcare, post-employment or other benefits, including those caused by changes in markets, interest rates, mortality rates, demographics or regulations; the potential negative impact of customer complaints, government investigations, security breaches or service outages impacting us or our industry; adverse changes in our access to credit markets on favorable terms, whether caused by changes in our financial position, lower credit ratings, unstable markets, debt covenant restrictions or otherwise; our ability to meet the terms and conditions of our debt obligations and covenants, including our ability to make transfers of cash in compliance therewith; our ability to maintain favorable relations with our security holders, key business partners, suppliers, vendors, landlords and financial institutions; our ability to timely obtain necessary hardware, software, equipment, services, governmental permits and other items on favorable terms; our ability to meet evolving environmental, social and governance ("ESG") expectations and benchmarks, and effectively communicate and implement our ESG strategies; our ability to collect our receivables from, or continue to do business with, financially-troubled customers; our ability to continue to use or renew intellectual property used to conduct our operations; any adverse developments in legal or regulatory proceedings involving us; changes in tax, pension, healthcare or other laws or regulations, in governmental support programs, or in general government funding levels, including those arising from recently enacted legislation promoting broadband development; our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards in the amounts projected; the effects of changes in accounting policies, practices or assumptions, including changes that could potentially require additional future impairment charges; continuing uncertainties regarding the impact that COVID 19 and its aftermath could have on our business, operations, cash flows and corporate initiatives; the effects of adverse weather, terrorism, epidemics, pandemics, rioting, vandalism, societal unrest, or other natural or man- made disasters or disturbances; the potential adverse effects if our internal controls over financial reporting have weaknesses or deficiencies, or otherwise fail to operate as intended; the effects of changes in interest rates and inflation; the effects of more general factors such as changes in exchange rates, in operating costs, in public policy, in the views of financial analysts, or in general market, labor, economic or geopolitical conditions; and other risks referenced from time to time in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You are cautioned not to unduly rely upon our forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements for any reason, whether as a result of new information, future events or developments, changed circumstances, or otherwise. Furthermore, any information about our intentions contained in any of our forward-looking statements reflects our intentions as of the date of such forward-looking statement, and is based upon, among other things, regulatory, technological, industry, competitive, economic and market conditions, and our related assumptions, as of such date. We may change our intentions, strategies or plans without notice at any time and for any reason. LUMENⓇ#3Non-GAAP Measures This presentation includes certain historical and forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, including but not limited to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, net debt, net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA and free cash flow, each excluding the effects of special items, and adjustments to GAAP and other non-GAAP measures to exclude the effect of special items. In addition to providing key metrics for management to evaluate the company's performance, we believe these measurements assist investors in their understanding of period-to-period operating performance and in identifying historical and prospective trends. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures and additional non-GAAP historical financial measures that may be discussed during the presentation, along with further descriptions of non-GAAP financial measures, are available in the Investor Relations portion of the company's website at http://ir.lumen.com. Non-GAAP measures are not presented to be replacements or alternatives to the GAAP measures, and investors are urged to consider these non-GAAP measures in addition to, and not in substitution for, measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. Lumen may present or calculate its non- GAAP measures differently from other companies. Description of Non-GAAP Metrics Pursuant to Regulation G, the company is hereby providing definitions of non-GAAP financial metrics.. We use the term Special Items as a non-GAAP measure to describe items that impacted a period's statement of operations for which investors may want to give special consideration due to their magnitude, nature or both. We do not call these items non-recurring because, while some are infrequent, others may recur in future periods. Adjusted EBITDA ($) is defined as net income (loss) from the Statements of Operations before income tax (expense) benefit, total other income (expense), depreciation and amortization, stock-based compensation expense and impairments. Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) is defined as Adjusted EBITDA divided by total revenue. Free Cash Flow is defined as net cash provided by (used in) operating activities less capital expenditures as disclosed in the Statements of Cash Flows. Management believes that Free Cash Flow is a relevant metric to provide to investors, as it is an indicator of our ability to generate cash to service our debt. Free Cash Flow excludes cash used for acquisitions, principal repayments and the impact of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents balances. Net Debt is defined as total long-term debt, excluding unamortized discounts, premiums and other, net and unamortized debt issuance costs, minus cash and cash equivalents. Net Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA is defined as Net Debt, divided by Adjusted EBITDA derived over the last twelve-month period. See the company's above-referenced website for additional information about the company's use of non-GAAP metrics, including certain limitations on their use. We have not provided a reconciliation for our non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow forecast because the forecast is related to events that have not occurred and we believe it would be unreasonable and burdensome to do so. 2 LUMENⓇ#43 KATE JOHNSON President & CEO Repositioning Lumen for Stabilization and Growth LUMENⓇ#5Principled Approach to Reposition Lumen for Stabilization and Growth 4 Monetizing irreplaceable assets Making Intentional Investments aligned to growth markets, mindful of efficiency and cash Leveraging Experienced Team to deliver on transformation Driving Financial Outcomes through material improvements LUMENⓇ#6Fast Start, Gaining Momentum 5 Reallocated capital from dividend to fund Lumen's future Implemented new mission, strategy, and priorities with new executive leadership Launched execution of plan to win in the digital era Saved ~400K people hours of low-value-add work to be re-deployed to maximize impact Executed debt exchange to reduce debt by ~$630M LUMENⓇ#7We See a Growing Market Opportunity 1.Edge Managed Services & Edge Network Services. 2. Managed Security & SASE. 3. Dark Fiber & Wavelengths. 4. Business broadband & Ethernet. 5. IP/VPN MPLS, ATM / Frame, & Managed Network Services. 6. Excluding VoIP (sized separately). Sources: Analysys Mason, Data Bridge, Frost & Sullivan, Gartner, GlobalData, Grand View Research, IDC, VSG. 6 Relevant US business Telco market sizes (in $B) ~$115 2023 +5% ~$135 2026 Product Market CAGR ~25% Edge¹ SD-WAN Security² Optical Services³ VolP & UC&C IP-DIA Other Connectivity4 VPN Data Networks5 Voice6 ~20% ~15% ~10% ~5% ~3% ~1% ~(5%) ~(15%) LUMENⓇ#8Increasing Demand for Lumen's Secure, Fast Connectivity 1. Serviceable addressable market. Sources: Analysys Mason, CNBC, Cybersecurity Ventures, McAfee, Tirias Research. 7 Managed Security Global cybercrime costs increased 4x+ since 2015 Generative Artificial Intelligence Gen Al and hybrid cloud increasing compute demand Edge Cloud Internet of Things driving bandwidth from Edge Network Cloudification Network-as-a-Service SAM¹ ~$25-35B by 2027 LUMENⓇ#9Recreating Lumen's Existing Fiber Network Could Cost Up to $150B 8 Seattle Bandon Vancouver Manchester Portland San Francisco Sacramento Sandose San Luis Obispo Boise San Diego Salt Lake City as Vegas Los Angeles San Bernardino Tijuana Phoenix Tucson FIBER COUNT Denver Albuquerque El Paso 432-864 Stratford Wichita Oklahoma City Omaha Minneapolis Austin San Antonio Des Moines Topeka Fort Worth Dallas Tulsa Kansas City Houston 217-432 Springfield Memphis Chicago St. Louis Little Rock Indianapol Milwaukee Nashville Birmingham Jackson Mobile/ New Orleans < 217 ● Louisville Detroit Columbus Cincinnati Montgomery Chattanooga Tallahassee Atlanta Pittsburgh Charlotte Toronto Tampa Cleveland Orlando Buffalo Jacksonville Binghamton Columbia Miami Raleigh On-net market Albany Richmond West Palm Beach Fort Lauderdale Adelia Baltimore Washington, D.C. Montreal New York Boston Better monetizing irreplaceable asset that is newer, denser, offers better coverage, and is cheaper to build STATE-OF-THE-ART FIBER BROAD COVERAGE UNMATCHED ROUTE DIVERSITY & SCALABILITY LUMENⓇ#10Strategic Plan for Growth 9 Secure the Base Drive Commercial Excellence Innovate for Growth LUMENⓇ#11Change Initiatives Expected to Yield Better Financial Outcomes $ Note: All outlook periods not shown as "incl. EMEA" exclude financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. Midpoints of guidance ranges shown for revenue and EBITDA. 1. Net Leverage is a ratio of Net Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA. 10 Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Free Cash Flow Net Leverage¹ 2023 ~$14.2B ~$4.7B $0M - $200M ~4.2x 2027 ~$14.8B ~$5.3B $300M $500M - ~3.3x LUMENⓇ#12Today's Agenda 11 Business ASHLEY HAYNES-GASPAR 1 Secure the Base JAY BARROWS 2 Drive Commercial Excellence SHAM CHOTAI & ANDREW DUGAN 3 Innovate for Growth MAXINE MOREAU 4 Expand Mass Markets CHRIS STANSBURY 5 Financial Outlook LUMENⓇ#1312 ASHLEY HAYNES-GASPAR EVP & Customer Experience Officer, Wholesale and International 1 2 3 4 5 Secure the Base ● ● ● Re-invest in high impact initiatives Focus on customer experience & lifetime value Re-imagine partnerships Drive Commercial Excellence Innovate for Growth Expand Mass Markets Financial Outlook LUMENⓇ#14Re-focusing Spend on High Impact Programs We've implemented clean sheet budgeting... ...begun aggressive cost re-allocation to higher priority initiatives... Eliminated ~100 low-value-added processes (~60 more since Q1'23 earnings) ...and plan to continue rationalizing costs 13 SECURE THE BASE ~400K annualized people- hour savings identified for re- allocation (+280K since Q1 23 earnings) LUMENⓇ#15Re-investing in CX to Increase Retention We are improving customer experience by reducing complexity... ...and by increasing Customer Success investments in priority areas... Enables us to protect, nurture, grow relationships in industry with high Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) ...driving gains in customer satisfaction, correlating to higher spend 14 1. Increase in customer spend when customer moves up in satisfaction rating cohort (e.g., improving from "satisfied" to "very satisfied"); based on 2021-2022 spending trends. SECURE THE BASE ~90% reduction in order validation time in pilot ~15% increase in CS team investment ~5% spend when customer satisfaction improves¹ LUMENⓇ#16Proactively Driving Customer Retention and Lifetime Value with VPN and Voice Migration SASE¹ and SD-WAN² are value-enhancing alternatives to VPN VPN market declining by ~5%, while SASE¹ and SD-WAN² are growing ~20% annually Competitively advantaged by delivering a fully integrated experience ● Voice market trends make emphasis on migration imperative Voice market declining by ~15%, while VoIP4 and UC&C5 are growing ~5% annually Uniquely advantaged product, bundling network and services with leading platforms 15 1. Secure Access Service Edge. 2. Software-Defined Wide Area Network. 3. Customer Lifetime Value. 4. Voice over Internet Protocol. 5. Unified Communications & Collaboration. SECURE THE BASE ~3.4x CLV³ for SASE + IP vs. VPN only ~1.8x CLV³ for VoIP4/UC&C5 vs. voice only ~$180M incremental revenue opportunity in next 3-4 years LUMENⓇ#17Migrated Customer to Next-Gen Solution, Deepening Relationship Voice Migration Example Customer's scale and needs made them an ideal fit for migration Large, international energy company that had outgrown their legacy voice products Chose us for the strength of our UC&C¹ solution, offering: One-stop-shop for voice and networking needs Flexible technical solution and Microsoft partnership Ⓡ Migration benefited customer and strengthened our relationship Improved end user experience, speed to deployment, and ROI of Teams investment 16 ● 1. Unified communications & collaboration. SECURE THE BASE ~2.4x increase in customer's monthly voice revenue LUMENⓇ#18Our partnering approach has radically improved Better go-to-market alignment with partners Accelerating funnel expansion and improving targeting through teaming ● ● 17 Microsoft VERSA NETWORKS zoom ......... CISCO FORTINET. SECURE THE BASE Partners Make More Possible LUMENⓇ#1918 JAY BARROWS EVP, Enterprise Sales and Public Sector 1 2 3 4 5 Secure the Base Drive Commercial Excellence ● Monetize existing products Optimize sales and channel Increase focus on priority markets Innovate for Growth Expand Mass Markets Financial Outlook LUMENⓇ#20Driving Revenue Shift to Grow Category Business Product Category Strategy to Maximize Cash Flow Products Included (Non-exhaustive) GROW NURTURE HARVEST 19 Prioritize growth to: ● Future-proof company Increase CLV potential Maintain customer spend and loyalty Migrate to Grow to pre-empt churn VoIP/UC&C, SASE, SD-WAN, IP, Waves, Managed Security VPN Data Networks, Ethernet Legacy Voice, Managed Hosting, Private Line Note: Percentages in projections columns do not add up to 100% due to exclusion of "other" category. 1. Customer Lifetime Value, relative to Harvest category. 2. Enterprise channel projected revenue excludes financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. 3. Projected FY23-FY26 CAGR. CLV¹ ~10x ~3x DRIVE COMMERCIAL EXCELLENCE 1x 2023 Revenue 2027 Revenue Mix² Mix² 41% 33% 18% 59% 22% 11% ● Market - 3-Yr CAGR³ ~8% ~(3%) ~(4%) LUMENⓇ#21Monetizing Underutilized Products We are commercializing our security capabilities... ...overhauling how we take Edge to market to drive adoption... ...making early moves to win Network-as-a-Service... ...and refining our IP, Waves, and Dark Fiber sales engine 20 1. Network-as-a-Service. Source: Analysys Mason. DRIVE COMMERCIAL EXCELLENCE 4 new products monetized with Rapid Threat Defense $25-35B NaaS¹ addressable market in next few years LUMENⓇ#22Refocused Sales Efforts on Grow Category We have increased sales team capacity to enable more time selling... Shifting smaller accounts to Customer Success, increasing time spent on cross- and up- selling Re-focusing sales time to focus on Grow product category • 21 ● ...and overhauled our incentive structure to drive focus on Grow Quotas and compensation multipliers to incentivize Grow products 1. Q1'23 versus Q4'22 Grow funnel adds for Enterprise channels. DRIVE COMMERCIAL EXCELLENCE >20% QoQ increase in Enterprise Grow product category funnel adds¹ LUMENⓇ#23Increasing Focus on Growth in Enterprise... Investing to enhance strategic sales in Large Enterprise Continues to be a mission-critical market for success Increased capacity and focused sales efforts to drive Grow products Ⓡ Augmenting sales force to win new Mid-Market logos Ring-fenced and expanding Mid-Market team Investing in deeper channel and alliance partnerships Ⓡ 22 • Widening our Public Sector funnel Tailored security offerings to help meet Zero Trust Mandate Helping USDA transform from legacy infrastructure to leading Lumen products ● ...Enabled by a modernized technology stack, Al, analytics, and an optimized sales engine 1. Q1'23 versus Q4'22. DRIVE COMMERCIAL EXCELLENCE ...and Already Impacting Sales ~5% QoQ increase in Large Enterprise closed sales for Grow products¹ ~30% QoQ higher sales value in Mid-Market new logos¹ ~8% QoQ increase in Public Sector Grow products total revenue¹ LUMENⓇ#24Solving Digital Challenges | HUITT HZ ZOLLARS HZ sought to improve its WAN environment to meet client needs Needed extensive network visibility and trusted security compliance given federal clients Ⓡ Delivered integrated value proposition with rigor DIA and SASE, integrated with Rapid Threat Defense, built in collaboration with Fortinet 23 ● 1. Change in HZ products sold (e.g., SASE, DIA, EBAS) after migration vs. historical (e.g., DIA). 2. Five-star ratings received from HZ during the sales and deployment process. DRIVE COMMERCIAL EXCELLENCE ~3x increase in 'Grow' products sold, significantly increasing MRR¹ 2 five-star customer ratings on delivery experience² LUMENⓇ#2524 SHAM CHOTAI EVP, Product & Technology ANDREW DUGAN EVP & Chief Technology Officer 1 2 3 4 LO 5 Secure the Base Drive Commercial Excellence Innovate for Growth Digitize by simplifying IT architecture Expand security offerings and fiber network Cloudify the network ● ● Expand Mass Markets Financial Outlook LUMENⓇ#26Digitize to Enable Growth Decommission ~70% of user- facing IT-owned systems by simplifying architecture (from ~170 user-facing IT-owned systems to ~50) Automate processes and utilize cloud-native infrastructure to take cost out 25 Rationalize 12 legacy data warehouses into single modern cloud-based platform, enabling democratized data access Simplify product offerings to reduce product support required INNOVATE FOR GROWTH ~$100M annualized run-rate savings expected in next few years LUMENⓇ#27Improving Customer, Partner, and Employee Journeys. Drive sales productivity by equipping sales with a Next Best Action tool leveraging behavioral data Decrease time-to-quote for solutions by improving tooling and workflow automation Increase operational reliability with order visibility tied to clear communications and better data management Reduce cost to serve with an intuitive self-serve customer portal Reduce support requests (e.g. calls and chats) with simplified customer billing experiences 26 INNOVATE FOR GROWTH ~$50M annualized EBITDA uplift expected in next few years LUMENⓇ#28Driving Innovation in Security with Leading Network BLACK LOTUS LABS™ 28 We are innovating in security by leveraging our expansive, increasing, next-generation fiber network ...with experts using Al and machine learning to identify threats... Rapid Threat Defense Automated threat detection and response by Black Lotus Labs® 1. CAGR across 2023 2028. Source: Gartner, IDC, Statista ...to provide an unparalleled view of threat landscape... ...that we continue to integrate and commercialize across products INNOVATE FOR GROWTH ~$180B cybersecurity market with 10% projected CAGR¹ LUMENⓇ#29Monetizing Our Unique and Powerful Fiber Network Investing in the newest generation fiber... Lumen Intercity Fiber Network - North America Bandon Vancouver Seattle 28 Portland Manchester San Francisco Sacramento Samose Lis Obispo Los Angeles San Diego FIBER COUNT Salt Lake City as Vegas an Bernardino Tijuana Phoenix Tucson Albuquerque 432-864 El Paso Stratford Wichita Oklahoma City Omsha Austin Gan Antonio Minneapolis Des Moines 217-432 Fort Worth Dallas Topela Tulsa Kansas City Houston Springfield Memphis Little Rock Indianapoli Birmingham Jackson ilesukee Mobile - <217 New Orleans Louisville Detroit Columbus Cincinnati Montgomers Pittsburgh Chattanooga THIShanike Atlanta Toronto Charlotte Faleigh Orfando acksonville Binghamton Miami New York Philadelphia Baltimore Washington, D.C West Palm Beach Fort Lauderdale Alban On-net market Montreal ●Boston ...and driving performance ~60% more capacity ~25% less optical loss¹ ...vs. competitors INNOVATE FOR GROWTH 1. ~25% less fiber optic loss per km; less loss translates to less frequent need for fiber optic signal regeneration, decreasing equipment costs; figure is based on a comparison to vintage 2000 fiber (decrease from .22 db/km loss to. 17 db/km). ...at a lower build cost 6M intercity fiber miles deployed plus an additional 6M to come Conduit advantage enables Lumen to build more cheaply LUMENⓇ#30Largest 400G Wavelength Network Satisfies Need for Higher Bandwidth Expansion enables better support of growing customer bandwidth needs and positions us to increase share Lumen 400G Wavelength Network - North America 29 Seattle Portland Bandon San Francisco San Jose San Luis Obispo Spokane Yakima Reno Sacramento Modesto Los Angeles San Diego Boise Missoula Las Vegas San Bernadino Helena Bozeman Salt Lake City Billings Grand Junction Phoenix Tucson Cheyenne Denver Colorado Springs Albuquerque El Paso Wichita Fort Worth Austin San Antonio Laredo, McAllen Minneapolis Omaha Topeka Dallas Tulsa Little Rock Kansas City Madison Des Moines Houston Corpus Christi Memphis Milwaukee - Chicago Indianapolis St. Louis Birmingham Mobile Baton Rouge New Orleans South Bend Columbus Nashville Louisville 0-0 Pensacola Akion Cincinnati Detroit Tallahassee Atlanta Tampa Buffalo Cleveland Pittsburgh Harrisburg Ashburn Charlotte Jacksonville Orlando Miami Stamford Newark Raleigh Albany New Haven New York Philadelphia Baltimore Washington, D.C. Richmond Norfolk Boston 400G Waves location Lumen 400G network INNOVATE FOR GROWTH ~$25M annualized revenue ~6 months post-launch 240+ data centers enabled LUMENⓇ#31Customer Views on Network Solutions: Hard to buy Hard to manage Hard to use 30 Source: Network Connectivity Buyer Survey (n=~1000 target customers). > Lumen's NaaS Will Deliver Step-Change Improvement We talked to ~1,000 customers to ensure our NaaS fits their needs Activate new features in a few clicks >25% of customers surveyed want quicker provisioning ● Easily scale capacity up/down >20% need to scale capacity up / down >20% find expensive to scale capacity up / down ● Self-manage network through digital portal >30% prefer managing network online vs. sales representative >30% prefer self-management vs. a representative ● INNOVATE FOR GROWTH ● Enjoy highly reliable and secure connectivity >40% would want improved quality of service and reliability >45% look for improved security ● ● LUMENⓇ#32NaaS Presents Significant Upside that Lumen Is Positioned Well to Win NaaS¹ is a game-changing market opportunity... Est. SAM² across Mid-Market and Large Enterprise channels 31 $10-15B 49% 51% 2022 Mid-Market ~20% $25-35B 49% 51% 2027 Large Enterprise Note: Small businesses not included in market sizing exercise; Mid-Market = 50 to 249 FTES, Large Enterprise = 250+ FTES. 1. Network-as-a-Service. 2. Serviceable Addressable Market. Source: Analysys Mason. INNOVATE FOR GROWTH ...that Lumen is uniquely positioned to win given: ● ● Owned and high-performing fiber network Large install base of customers Ability to build integrated software solutions Strong digital experience delivery LUMENⓇ#33Q 32 MAXINE MOREAU President, Mass Markets 1 2 3 4 5 Secure the Base Drive Commercial Excellence Innovate for Growth Expand Mass Markets Expand fiber footprint Streamline operating model Increase fiber penetration Financial Outlook LUMENⓇ#34Ramping Fiber Build to Recapture Market Share Quantum Fiber builds ('22-'23E) # enabled locations 33 3.1 M YE22 Fiber Enablement 0.1M 1Q23 Fiber Builds 0.4M+ Planned Remaining 2023 Builds 3.6M+ YE23 Fiber Enablement EXPAND MASS MARKETS 5-7M additional fiber locations planned to hit 8-10M target ~$1K-$1.5K average cost to enable per fiber location 40%+ long-term penetration of fiber locations LUMENⓇ#35Streamlining Operating Model and Go to Market to Improve Execution Streamlined to build more quickly and efficiently Changed GTM and ops organization models Increasing Quantum Fiber marketing spend 34 1. Q1'23 versus Q4'22. EXPAND MASS MARKETS ...and Seeing Early Signs of Progress ~90% planning yields on new fiber builds, up from as low as 10% in 2022 ~25% improvement in fiber-enabled locations QoQ¹ +85% planned marketing spend YoY in 2023 LUMENⓇ#36Driving Increased Penetration and ARPU Growth Strategically selecting expansion markets... Unleashing gig and multi-gig speed internet in more than 18 cities nationwide Focusing on existing urban / suburban markets ● ● ...offering simplified, high-value products to retake share... • Fully digital, subscription-based prepaid billing ● $75/mo. intake ARPU for symmetrical 1Gbps and no hidden price increases 35 ...and faster speeds and solutions to drive ARPU 8Gig service is >40x faster than average U.S. download speeds 360 Wi-Fi¹ enables real-time diagnostics and enterprise-grade security ● ● 1. Lumen-branded Wi-Fi. EXPAND MASS MARKETS +125k fiber net adds expected in 2023 >+60 average NPS score on Quantum Fiber ~$60 Q1 23 Fiber Broadband ARPU LUMENⓇ#37Generating Positive Future Results for Mass Markets Plan to ramp annual fiber build pacing to 1 million locations by 2025... Total fiber-enabled units by year¹ (M) 36 3.6 2023 4.4 2024 5.4 2025 6.4 2026 7.4 2027 Note: All Mass Markets outlook projections exclude potential impacts of the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program. 1. Assumed at end of year. ...results in return to growth on key financial metrics ~(3%) ~(7%) 2023 Broadband Metrics Fiber Subscriber Net Adds ~(2%) Total Subscriber Net Adds Fiber Penetration¹ ~(5%) 2024 Mass Market Broadband Revenue YoY Chg. 2023 ~125K ~(175K) I ~3% 26% ~(1%) 2025 2024 ~225K EXPAND MASS MARKETS ~(50K) 27% 1~3% 2025 ~350K ~8% ( I~100K 28% 2026 Mass Markets Total Revenue YoY Chg. 2026 ~425K ~225K ~9% 31% ~4% 2027 2027 ~450K ~250K 32% LUMENⓇ#38Q 37 CHRIS STANSBURY EVP & CFO 1 2 3 4 5 Secure the Base Drive Commercial Excellence Innovate for Growth Expand Mass Markets Financial Outlook Business and Mass Markets Revenue Adj. EBITDA, Capex, and Free Cash Flow Leverage LUMENⓇ#39Expect Revenue and Adj. EBITDA Growth in 2025 Revenue and Adj. EBITDA Growth 15% 10% 38 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2023 2024 Revenue growth % 2025 2026 Adj. EBITDA growth % Note: All outlook periods exclude financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. 2027 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Improving sales capacity, accelerating new customer acquisition and increasing penetration Migrating customers to go-forward technology solutions while reducing churn and improving CX Cost optimization and right sizing business through simplification and resource reallocation Significant Quantum Fiber investment to drive shareholder value Monetizing Security, Edge and NaaS Digital Enterprise with scalable Service Delivery and Operations No significant debt maturities until 2027 LUMENⓇ#40Business: Stable Margin Profile as Product Mix Evolves Total Business Revenue 39 Grow $11.1B 38% 2023 $11.7B 53% 2027 Nurture Harvest Other 2023 Grow Nurture Harvest Other Total Business 2027 Grow Nurture Harvest Other Total Business YoY% Growth 4-year CAGR Enterprise Channels 41% 33% 18% 8% 71% 59% 22% 11% 8% 77% 4% 3% Business Revenue Mix Wholesale 32% 27% 41% 1% 29% 34% 29% 36% 1% 23% -3% -4% Total Business $4.2B $3.4B $2.7B $0.7B $11.1B FINANCIAL OUTLOOK $6.2B $2.8B $2.0B $0.7B $11.7B 3% 1% Note: All outlook periods exclude financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. 1. Direct margin is defined as revenue less variable and fixed costs directly associated with the provision of services and products to customers. Direct costs would include, but are not limited to: direct labor and materials/goods, direct taxes and fees, incremental third-party costs that can be attributed to a specific customer, and certain fixed costs. Direct Margin¹ ~82% ~66% ~81% ~22% ~73% ~78% ~65% ~83% ~22% ~73% LUMENⓇ#41Business Segment Outlook Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA expected to stabilize in 2024 and grow thereafter Adj. EBITDA Revenue 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Financial Metric¹ Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Capital Expenditures Adjusted EBITDA - Capex³ Adjusted EBITDA-Capex/Revenue³ 40 II 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2023 incl. EMEA² $11.5B- $11.8B $7.4B - $7.6B $1.3B - $1.5B ~$6.1B ~52% 2023 $10.9B $11.2B $7.0B - $7.2B $1.2B - $1.4B ~$5.8B ~52% Capex 1 1 2024 $10.8B $11.1B $6.9B - $7.1B $1.1B - $1.3B ~$5.8B ~52% I 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Note: All outlook periods not shown as "incl. EMEA" exclude financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. 1. Projections exclude unallocated corporate/other costs of $3.9B - $4.3B and capital expenditures of ~$0.4B - $0.6B. 2. Assumes a full-year financial contribution of Lumen's EMEA business. 3. Assumes mid-point of outlook metrics. 1 I 2025 $11.0B $11.3B $6.9B - $7.1B $1.2B - $1.4B ~$5.7B ~51% FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Mid-Point Outlook Range Adj. EBITDA - Capex³ 2026 III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 $11.1B $11.7B $7.0B - $7.4B $1.3B - $1.5B ~$5.8B ~51% 2027 $11.2B $12.2B $7.0B - $7.8B $1.3B - $1.5B ~$6.0B ~51% LUMENⓇ#42Mass Markets Segment Outlook High margins in fiber unit economics as program scales Revenue 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 41 Financial Metric¹ Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Capital Expenditures سا الاب اور اس Quantum Enablement Capex Adjusted EBITDA - Capex² Adjusted EBITDA - Capex/Revenue² Adj. EBITDA 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2023 $3.0B - $3.2B Capex $1.6B - $1.8B $0.8B $1.0B ~$0.6B - $0.7B ~$0.8B ~24% 2024 $2.8B - $3.0B $1.5B - $1.7B $1.0B - $1.4B ~$0.8B - $1.1B ~$0.4B ~14% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Note: All Mass Markets outlook projections exclude potential impacts of the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program. 1. Projections exclude unallocated corporate/other costs of $3.9B - $4.3B and capital expenditures of ~$0.4B - $0.6B. 2. Assumes mid-point of outlook metrics. 2025 $2.8B - $3.0B $1.5B - $1.7B $1.2B - $1.7B ~$1.0B - $1.5B ~$0.2B ~5% FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Adj. EBITDA - Capex² Mid-Point Outlook Range 2026 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 $2.9B- $3.1B $1.6B - $1.8B $1.2B-$1.7B ~$1.0B - $1.5B ~$0.3B ~9% 2027 $2.9B - $3.2B $1.7B - $2.0B $1.2B $1.8B $1.0B - $1.5B ~$0.4B ~14% LUMENⓇ#43Quantum Fiber Investment Drives Long-Term Value Quantum Economics 42 $3B $2B $1B $OB -$1B -$2B -$3B [₂ (40%) Revenue Adj. EBITDA (13%) Capex 48% 52% (84%) (82%) (87%) 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 53% Adj. EBITDA - Capex 54% 55% 2032 Adj. EBITDA - Capex % Rev Note: All Mass Markets outlook projections exclude potential impacts of the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program. Projections exclude unallocated corporate/other costs. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Once scale is achieved, cash flow generation expected to be material Anticipated Capex reduction of ~$1B per year after investment phase Growth in penetration coupled with tapering Capex drives material change in cash trajectory Quantum Fiber markets have high barriers to entry and sustainable penetration opportunity Creates long term enterprise value with substantial operating leverage LUMENⓇ#44Lumen Consolidated Outlook Investing to return to growth while maintaining positive Free Cash Flow Revenue 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Financial Metric Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Capital Expenditures Free Cash Flow² 43 Adj. EBITDA ~33% ~36% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2023 incl. EMEA³ $14.5B $15.0B $4.6B - $4.8B $2.9B- $3.1B $OM - $200M 2023 $13.9B - $14.4B $4.5B - $4.8B $2.7B - $3.0B $OM - $200M Capex 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2024 ■Mid-Point $13.6B $14.1B $4.3B - $4.6B $2.6B - $3.1B $0M - $200M 2025 $13.8B $14.3B $4.4B - $4.7B $2.8B - $3.4B $100M $300M FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Outlook Range Free Cash Flow² 2026 $14.0B $14.7B $4.6B - $5.1B $2.9B - $3.6B $100M $300M I 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Note: All outlook periods not shown as "incl. EMEA" exclude financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. 1. Assumes mid-point of outlook metrics. 2. Assumes (a) $1.5bn of after-tax proceeds from the sale of Lumen's EMEA business are used to pay down debt, (b) includes discretionary pension payments through the forecast period, and (c) 2027 debt maturities are refinanced at approximately 11%. 3. Assumes a full-year financial contribution of Lumen's EMEA business. 1 I -Adj. EBITDA Margin 2027 $14.1B $15.5B $4.8B - $5.8B $2.9B - $3.7B $300M $500M LUMENⓇ 1#45Leverage Reduces Over Time Manageable debt maturities with stability Lumen Maturity Profile (in billions) 44 $1.6 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 2023 2024 $9.4 $0.5 2025 2026 2027 Debt Maturities¹ $1.5 2028 $3.1 2029 Est. Debt Paid by EMEA Proceeds $3.4 2030 No meaningful maturities until 2027 post-EMEA close Leverage Outlook ~4.2x 2023 incl. EMEA² Note: All outlook periods not shown as "incl. EMEA" exclude financial impacts from the pending sale of Lumen's EMEA business. 1. Maturities exclude finance lease obligations and supplier finance obligations. 2. Assumes a full-year financial contribution of Lumen's EMEA business. 3. Assumes approximately $1.5bn of cash proceeds from the pending sale of the EMEA business. 4. Assumes mid-point of outlook metrics. ~4.0x 2024 3 ~3.9x Adj. EBITDA 2025 4 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK ~3.6x 2026 ~3.3x 2027 Net Debt to LTM Adj. EBITDA Expect return to growth to drive more attractive refinancing rates LUMENⓇ#46Financial Recap 45 Initiatives give us confidence in revenue growth Cost optimization and simplification supports Adj. EBITDA expansion FINANCIAL OUTLOOK $ G Ample fuel to fund investments necessary for turnaround LUMENⓇ#47Principled Approach to Reposition Lumen for Stabilization and Growth 46 Monetizing irreplaceable assets Making Intentional Investments aligned to growth markets, mindful of efficiency and cash Leveraging Experienced Team to deliver on transformation Driving Financial Outcomes through material improvements LUMENⓇ

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Investor Presentation March 2024 image

Investor Presentation March 2024

Communication

Maximising Long-Term Value and Strategic Growth image

Maximising Long-Term Value and Strategic Growth

Communication

Sequans Capitalization and 5G Taurus Launch image

Sequans Capitalization and 5G Taurus Launch

Communication

Vodafone Company Presentation image

Vodafone Company Presentation

Communication

First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call image

First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call

Communication

Liberty Global Results Presentation Deck image

Liberty Global Results Presentation Deck

Communication

Third Quarter 2019 Results image

Third Quarter 2019 Results

Communication

Nextdoor SPAC Presentation Deck image

Nextdoor SPAC Presentation Deck

Communication