Ocado Investor Day Presentation Deck

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

17 of 32

Category

Consumer

Published

May 2022

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Ocado Group Modelling & Roadmap for Growth 25 May 2022 ocado GROUP ⒸOcado Group plc. All rights reserved. 1#2Objectives for the session 1. Provide a better understanding of the characteristics of the three underlying business models in Ocado Group 2. Provide a framework to assess how revenue and returns for each of these businesses, and Ocado Group as a whole, might develop over the next 4-6 years ('mid-term') and beyond 3. Take a deeper dive into the workings of our Technology Solutions business, the key future value driver for the Group; explore why, based on progress so far and current visibility, we have conviction that investments today will drive attractive returns tomorrow 4. Set out a clear path to >£750m EBITDA in the mid-term based on the existing contractual commitments from existing partners with a clear opportunity to grow well beyond this 2#3Agenda 1. A review of current reporting and underlying business models: 1. Mapping current reporting to our three underlying business models 2. An illustrative representation of FY21 results 2. Exploring our underlying business models: 1. Ocado Retail 2. Ocado Logistics 3. Ocado Technology Solutions 3. Summary 1. Bringing it all together at Group level 3#4Ocado Group#5Changing the way the world shops for good A technology-led, global, software and robotics platform business, with a strong retail heritage spanning over 20 years Our Ambition: "We are reimagining shopping. We are online shopping pioneers. We continue to make the delivery of consumers' essential groceries fit for modern lives and businesses. Our technologies, combined knowledge and 20 years of experience provide our client partners with exceptional efficiency and economics, and their consumers customer service that is among the best." Our Core Activities: ► Ocado Technology Solutions: end-to-end online retail solutions from concept to implementation and maintenance, through to support, with a wide range of fulfilment formats enabling grocery e-commerce businesses globally > Ocado Retail: A pure play online grocery retailer, serving customers in the UK enabled by Ocado Technology Solutions, now a 50:50 joint venture with M&S ► Ocado Logistics: Operates and optimises Ocado Group's platforms in the UK to deliver maximum client & customer value £2.5bn FY21 Group revenue Fast growing top line turbocharged by structural shift to online +15% CAGR >2,600 technology headcount Top talent dedicated to further the competitive advantage 2.4x increase Source: Company Information. Note: 1 Ocado Smart Platform or OSP is the end-to-end solution for operating online in the grocery market, which has been developed by the Group; 2 CFC stands for Customer Fulfilment Centre; ³ As of 2016 #2 retail platform globally By volume of global grocery sales delivered by OSP¹ partners over £210bn +£180bn >1,500 patents granted or pending Proprietary technology, with a future innovation pipeline Up from c.503 filed Change vs FY17 11 OSP partners globally Highly innovative and forward looking partners in their markets +8 partners 835k active Ocado Retail customers With potential to further expand to M&S's customer base of 12m +29% growth 58 publicly announced CFCs² to date Strong pipeline of CFC commitments from partners +57 new commitments LO 5#6A review of reported and underlying business models#7Mapping reported operating segments to underlying models Reported operating segments Ocado Retail (100% consolidated, 50% owned) UK Solutions & Logistics International Solutions Better reflected as 3 underlying business models Ocado Retail Online grocery retail business serving big basket and immediacy missions to customers in the UK Ocado Logistics Industry leading business, operating in the UK for Ocado Retail and Morrisons Ocado Technology Solutions Technology platform business providing the Ocado Smart Platform ('OSP') as a managed service to our (currently) 11 partners around the world Solutions (revenues and costs) from reported UK segment naturally fits within global Technology Solutions umbrella#8Underlying business models - overview Ocado Retail (100% consolidated, 50% owned) Revenues: pure play online grocery business to >800k UK customers Costs: cost of sales, distribution & fulfilment costs, marketing and HO costs incurred to execute online business Includes recharges of logistics costs and fees paid to both Ocado Technology Solutions and Ocado Logistics for provision of services to run online grocery platform Ocado Logistics Revenues: rech ge of costs incurred to execute logistics services for UK retail partners (Ocado Retail and Morrisons)¹ and fees for provision of logistics services Costs: incurred to execute logistics services for UK partners (and recharged) and an allocated share (c.30%) of total Group Operations costs Ocado Technology Solutions Revenues²: primarily fees from global retail partners for the provision of OSP reflecting two key components: upfront fees recognised as revenue after CFCs go live recurring capacity fees Costs: incurred to provide and maintain OSP as well as a full allocation of Group Technology costs and (c.70%) of Group Operations costs Note: (1) Cost recharges and fees from Ocado Logistics to Ocado Retail are eliminated on consolidation (2) also includes revenue from Kindred (£9.6m in FY21) 8#9Underlying business models - pro forma FY21 results Revenue EBITDA Ocado Retail UK Solutions & Logistics International Solutions Inter-Segment and Other Group Ocado Retail UK Solutions & Logistics International Solutions Group & Other² Group FY21A 2,290 710 67 -569 2,499 150 6.6% margin 69 9.7% margin -119 (177.6)% margin -39 61 UK Logistics Technology Solutions UK Logistics Technology Solutions FY21 pro forma¹ 2,290 595 183 -569 2,499 150 6.6% margin 31 5.2% margin -81 (44.3%) margin -39 61 >90% recharges; remainder mgmt and capital recharge fees³ fees received from global retail partners elimination of Ocado Retail related logistics and fee revenue reflects pass through nature of cost recharges Includes an attractive positive contribution offset by full allocation of upfront in ment in technology and head office costs to support future scale and growth Note: (1) indicative, unaudited (2) 'Group & Other' as per the FY21 reporting segment, primarily share based payments (£29m). Full detail in FY21 Annual Report (3) Recharges to ORL for capital assets (Hatfield, Dordon and Erith in particular) 9#10Exploring our underlying business models and their key drivers#11Ocado Retail#12Ocado Retail: Step change in long term opportunity The market opportunity in online grocery in the UK has fundamentally reset post Covid Online share of UK grocery remains 1.7x what it was before the pandemic, with outlook for continued growth Online channel share 7% 12% FY19 18% FY25e Apr-22 Customer penetration stable at 26% (Apr-22); recent volume declines driven by cost of living and normalisation of shopping behaviours Ocado Retail sales evidence this step change; business gaining share of this bigger market Note: Nielsen data for FY19 and Apr-22 market share data, GlobalData for 2025 forecast Ocado Retail revenue has seen a fundamental step change compared with before the pandemic +14ppts Relative outperformance vs. UK online grocery channel in Q1 FY22 Ocado Retail is well placed to continue to win in a growing online channel in the long term 32% Ocado Retail revenue growth 1Q22 vs 1Q20 And the business is taking share, with best in class offer and available capacity +25ppts NPS score vs. other UK grocers 12#13Ocado Retail: planned capacity roll out will take revenue to >£4.5bn Steady growth sees path >£4.5bn in revenue in mid term 7 Modules¹ at site maturity 45 Ocado Retail £2.3bn Revenue Sites launched (in addition to Hatfield, Dordon, Erith) FY21 6 Hatfield Dordon Erith Bristol Andover Purfleet 50 FY22 10 Bicester Zoom 1 Zoom 2 Zoom 3 55 FY23 12 Luton Zoom 4 Note: (1) one module equivalent to c.£70m of sales at capacity 61 FY24 13 Northwest FY25 14 Southeast << >£4.5bn revenue mid term Path to mid term target driven by: Customer acquisition and retention o Average eaches shopped per basket o Average sales price (ASP) per each 13#14Ocado Retail: margin potential underpinned by operating leverage and technology O c40% O operating leverage Immature volumes relative to fixed costs and investment: FY21 6.6% % EBITDA margin YoY margin pressure reflects... c30% marketing overheads capacity fees site costs Part normalisation following low spend during pandemic, part going for growth and customer acquisition cost FY22 low single digit reflecting current cost-of-living crisis and inflationary pressures c20% inflation Result of significant increases in utility and fuel costs mid-term high mid-single digit margin potential at mature capacity, benefits of Re: Imagined still to come ...but underlying trends are encouraging Target efficiency achieved at latest sites Latest sites, Andover and Purfleet, operating at 200+ UPH less than a year after go live Customer acquisition continues Active customer base +12% year on year YTD Well invested for growth; CFC roll out to support continued customer acquisition High mid-single digit EBITDA margin business in mid-term 14#15Ocado Logistics#16UK Logistics: Revenue and EBITDA to track UK partner volume growth Eaches growth drives cost recharges and, in turn, revenue Revenue to grow to >£900m; with partner volume growth EBITDA to be broadly stable; impact of capital recharge fades o Cost recharges >90% of total UK Logistics revenue; remainder c. 4% management fee and capital recharge¹ 1,229 1,273 +3.6% Eaches² 537 FY20 FY21 561 +4.4% Cost recharges (£m) o 10%+ CAGR on revenue; eaches growth for clients in UK partly partly offset by improvements in efficiency 595 FY21 >900 mid-term o Capital recharge to reduce by more than half in mid-term o Margin to trend towards c. 3%, reflect underlying cost-plus model 31 FY21 c. 35 mid-term Revenues of >£900m with EBITDA broadly stable at c£35m in mid-term Note: (1) FY21 includes £16m of capital recharges (2) individual picks of stock keeping units (SKUS) 16#17Ocado Technology Solutions#18Ocado Technology Solutions Leading solutions provider, bringing world-class customer experience and proven operational economics to retailers seeking to win in online grocery O O Enabled through the Ocado Smart Platform ('OSP'); a proprietary suite of solutions combining end-to-end software systems with our physical fulfilment assets, which we provide as a managed service 11 grocery retail clients around the world so far, representing a platform of >£210bn of sales in the markets in which we serve them, and announced capacity roll out plans equivalent to 58 CFCs, or over £20bn in client sales Capacity roll out is picking up pace; from 5 CFCs at the end of 2020 to an expected 19 by the end of FY22, with an expected 10+ sites p.a. run-rate in the years beyond As the assets that we are currently installing for clients go live and ramp we expect strong returns for both Ocado Group and our partners Those returns will get even better, as we iteratively continue to improve our operations; the Re:Imagined innovations are still to come 18#19Technology Solutions: Revenue - strong ramp as CFCs rollout Significant revenue ramp in mid-term driven by existing customer commitments 40 sites¹ ordered to build through 2025, with total partner announcements equivalent to 58 CFCs so far 11 FY21 23 FY22e >30 FY23 >40 FY24 Live sites at year end >60 >£900m revenue potential Mid term 800 200 100 B c.1/3 of the way to 300+ mid-term module target² by end FY22; vast majority of module growth already committed 300+ 61 c100 FY21 Modules in sites already ordered so far equivalent to c80% of target FY22e Live modules at maturity (one module equivalent to c£70m of sales capacity per year) Mid term Clear path to >£900m revenue³ in the mid-term Note: (1) Sites refer to CFCs, minis and micro sites (2) modules live assumes an average of 5 modules per site in mid term, reflecting a mix of larger CFCs (5+), as well as minis (2-4) and micro (<1) sites (3) Illustrative revenue calculations reflecting recurring capacity fee, but excluding the benefit of upfront fees received as cash and recognised as revenue over the19 accounting life of a CFC from go-live in accordance with IFRS 15#20Technology Solutions: low Operating Costs deliver attractive returns With reasons to have conviction in trajectory across broader CFC roll out % site capacity Direct operating cost³ Net capex investment amortisation (non-cash)4 Achieving target CFC model at latest site Revised mid-term Purfleet FY21¹ FY22 run rate² target5 2.7% Not reported 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% Purfleet running ahead of prior 2.0% target <1yr after go-live Reducing mid term target to 1.5% from 2.0% Purfleet at target <1yr after go-live Specific sites can vary reflecting mix of direct orders or temporary trends in the supply chain Mid single digit fee leads to attractive long term margins at both contribution and EBIT at the CFC level Note: all figures as as % of mature client sales capacity (1) FY21 number reflects exit rate. (2) Purfleet run rate reflects current expected annualised cost at mature sales capacity (3) Direct operating costs include engineering, cloud, and other technology support costs (4) capex net of up front fees received; capex amortised over the 10 years determined to be the average useful life of the MHE within a CFC. Up front fees received as cash and recognised as revenue over the accounting life of a CFC from go-live in accordance with IFRS 15 (5) excludes Re:Imagined benefit 20#21Technology Solutions: Technology Costs We have invested in our teams to support future scale and R&D Significantly expanded Tech team to bring clients onto OSP whilst continuing to innovate at pace 1,100 >2,600 100 Current size and mix supports continued innovation while costs expected to reduce materially as share of revenue as platform scales With 7 partners now live on OSP, a higher share of effort is on innovation 255 FY21 (£m cash cost) To support OSP development and run the platform c35% P&L c65% Capitalised Costs to run OSP expected to reduce from end of 2023 Declining gradually over time to a £200m p.a. run rate to run the platform 200 Wid tean Mid-term FY17 FY21 Technology headcount Costs to run OSP platform reduce as revenue growth materially accelerates 21#22Technology Solutions: Group Support Costs £89m FY21 Upfront investment in Group support teams to support early roll out Teams Solutions Other Client Services & Platform Implementation Group support functions FY21 context Growth on small base; increased account management with more partners on OSP platform Primarily Kindred as well as other venture related costs Growth in recent years to support run rate go-live of client sites and to support knowledge sharing with clients in early years c.55% of total support functions of c.£75m (eg. People, Legal, Finance), which have grown to support future scale and complexity of business Outlook mid-term Flat to small increase in real terms to support growth Flat in real terms in absence of new investments Flat in real terms; leverage on scale as we benefit from experience and improved technology Flat in real terms; upfront investment in cloud infrastructure and teams Group support costs expected to be broadly flat in real terms in mid-term 22#23Technology Solutions: attractive returns as revenue ramps £m Revenue Contribution margin Group support costs Technology costs (P&L) EBITDA margin FY21 183 103 56% (89) (96) (81) (44.3)% Mid term > 900 c. 70% (90) (70) c. 50% Significant evolution in margin; underlying economics of the model come through 23#24Technology Solutions: Capex investments in CFCs deliver strong returns A CFC is expected to deliver strong returns Strong returns requires upfront investment As an example, for a 5 module site: At least 65% of capex spent before go-live gross capex cost c£50m for Ocado Group¹ net capex cost c£36m after upfront fees go live in c. 2yrs after capex starts o go live with 2-3 modules of capacity ramp to capacity within 3 years after go-live O From which we expect attractive returns Purfleet on track 22%+ROCE2,3 Excluding benefits of Re: Imagined; clear line of sight to c30% ROCE Modules at go-live (end Year 2) 3 2 Annual capex phasing Year 2 10x 5 module sites Year 1 5% 5% 70% 60% At a steady run rate, phasing is smoothed Year 3-4 25% 35% c£500m gross annual capex c£360m net annual capex (inc. upfront fees) Some variation in cost can reflect location specifics (eg. seismic) and size As sites ramp, these returns will become evident Note: (1) Before impact of Re Imagined (2) Before allocated central costs (3) ROCE = Run rate EBIT based on mid-term cost targets divided by capex net of up front fees 24#25Purfleet: delivering attractive returns Key characteristics 6.25 modules c85k orders per week: capacity at maturity O average basket of 45 eaches Build and ramp 22 months: build commencement to go live O Nov-19 to Sept-21 c42k orders per week run rate; fastest ever ramp Investment O £55m MHE gross capex: O Net capex £39m after upfront fees Operating efficiency 200+ UPH: achieved <9 months after go-live Return on investment 22% ROCE²: pre Re: Imagined impact This is Ocado Purfleet Purfleet CFC, Essex, UK Cacado Note: (1) Units per hour = Units picked per labour hour (2) ROCE = Run rate EBIT based on mid-term cost targets divided by capex net of up front fees 25#26Technology Solutions: Capex summary Driver of Ocado Group capex; reflects CFC roll out and ongoing innovation £m CFCs (MHE) Technology Other² Total Capex FY21 390 159 47 5963 Mid-term 500¹ 130 45 c.675 Mid-term (Re: Imagined) 425 130 45 c.600 c.£600m in annual investments that we expect to deliver attractive returns Note: (1) assuming 50 module/10 CFCs run rate build p.a (2) supply chain, pre go-live costs (cloud and platform implementation, retrofit capex) (3) of the £680m total capex reported at FY21 results; £84m Ocado Retail and Logistics 26#27Technology Solutions: route to strong positive cash flows Improving operating efficiency and lower fixed costs reduce the number of CFCs operating at maturity required to reach FCF breakeven whilst funding 10 CFC build out per year FY21 cost base and contribution profile Assuming target cost base and contribution profile O 56% contribution margin o £89m Central support costs o £255m technology cost o 14% of sales CFC capex intensity inflows (£m) FCF breakeven outflows (£m) Break-even c80 mature CFCs 751 Capex Note: assuming working capital impact not material in mid-term Upfront fees o 70% contribution margin O c£90m Central support costs o c£200m technology cost o <12% of sales CFC capex intensity (Re: Imagined) Break-even c50 mature CFCs c.600 Required EBITDA for FCF breakeven 27#28Summary#29Summary: bringing it all together £m Revenue (£m) EBITDA (%) Capex (£m) Cash flow² (£m) Ocado Retail UK Logistics Tech Solutions Ocado Retail UK Logistics Tech Solutions Group Group FY21 Pro forma 2,290 595 183 6.6% margin 5.2% margin (44%) margin 680 (698) Mid term >4,500 > 900 > 900 high mid-single digit towards 3% margin c.50% margin c.700 positive Outlook Note: (1) FY21 UK Logistics and Tech Solutions figures are indicative, unaudited (2) Pre-financing and M&A growth into increasing capacity in line with volume growth & efficiency gains >4x increase in revenue as capacity grows enabled by tech and operating leverage reflecting the 'cost plus' business model to continue to rise as business scales Tech Solutions £600m plus Retail/Logistics reflecting strong ramp in EBITDA as live capacity builds Revenues >£6.3bn and EBITDA >£750m; returns scaling significantly 29#30Summary - the roadmap for growth Hopefully, the better you understand the underlying business models in Ocado Group, the easier it is to forecast our roadmap for growth The principal driver of value creation for Ocado Group is our Technology Solutions business, which is delivering OSP to currently 11 clients globally, helping accelerate channel shift online Revenue growth from Technology Solutions is secure and visible. Existing customer commitments deliver a clear path to > £900m in revenue. We have made good progress towards our target operating model which gives us conviction that the investments we are currently making will produce attractive returns in the future Ocado Retail is well positioned to grow profitably in the UK. Underlying trends in customer acquisition and productivity validate the fundamental attractions and economic model of OSP to our partners and give us conviction that sales growth and margins will recover once short term pressures ease ● We have a clear path to >£750m EBITDA, positive cash flows, and strong returns in the mid term, built on existing commitments; significantly greater incremental opportunities to grow with current and prospective partners; and further growth and margin benefits to come with the roll out of our Re:Imagined innovations. We are excited about the future 30

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation image

Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation

Consumer

TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS Earnings Update image

TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS Earnings Update

Consumer

Aeva Results Presentation Deck image

Aeva Results Presentation Deck

Consumer

Despegar Investor Day Presentation Deck image

Despegar Investor Day Presentation Deck

Consumer

Vroom Investor Day Presentation Deck image

Vroom Investor Day Presentation Deck

Consumer

Solo Brands IPO Presentation Deck image

Solo Brands IPO Presentation Deck

Consumer

Arrival Results Presentation Deck image

Arrival Results Presentation Deck

Consumer

Bed Bath & Beyond Results Presentation Deck image

Bed Bath & Beyond Results Presentation Deck

Consumer