Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

27 of 40

Creator

Evercore logo
Evercore

Category

Financial

Published

December 2012

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Presentation to the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of McMoRan Exploration Co. Fairness Opinion Discussion Materials December 4, 2012 EVERCORE PARTNERS McMoRan#2Table of Contents Transaction Overview Situation Analysis Financial Analysis Appendix EVERCORE PARTNERS Section I II III Confidential MCMORAR#3I. Transaction Overview EVERCORE PARTNERS#4Transaction Overview Summary Scope of Assignment: ($ in millions, except per share and unit amounts) Evercore Group L.L.C. ("Evercore") has been asked by McMoRan's Special Committee of the Board of Directors whether, in Evercore's opinion, the consideration to be received by holders of common stock of McMoRan in the Proposed Transaction is fair, from a financial point of view, to such holders entitled to receive such consideration Merger Consideration Implied Multiples Offer Price Premium Analysis Proposed Merger Consideration Cash Consideration Implied Value of Trust Units Per Share Total Consideration Per Common Share Implied Transaction Equity Value Implied Transaction Enterprise Value (EV based on Risked Value) EV/2012E EBITDAX EV/2013E EBITDAX Offer Price/2012E CFPS Offer Price/2013E CFPS EV/Proved Reserves EV/3P Reserves + Risked Resource EV/3Q Production EV/2013E Production (Based on Risked Value) Type of Average VWAP Implied Premium Simple Average Implied Premium I/B/E/S $8.72 97.3% $159.0 $162.6 $0.62 $0.56 209 Befe 18,236 Bofe 133,809 Mcfed 153,600 Mcfed $14.75 in cash and 1.15 units in a newly formed royalty trust representing a 5.0% overriding royalty interest in McMoRan's ultra-cleep acreage for each common share of McMoRan (1) Risked $14.7500 $2.4528 $17.2028 Multiple $3,988 $4.096 25.8x 25.2% 27.7x 30.7x 209 Befe 18.236 Befe 133.809 Mcfed 150,259 Mcfed Period of Time Current 1-Day 5-Day $8.23 Trading Days 10-Day 30-Day $9.13 $8.47 90-Day 180-Day 1-Year 2-Year $10.23 $11.49 $10.90 $11.54 $13.23 103.0% 68.2% 49.7% 57.8% 49.0% 30.0% $8.72 $8.50 $10.21 $11.52 $12.29 $11.32 $12.00 97.3% 102.3% 68.4% 49.4% 40.0% 51.9% 43.4% 105.9% $8.5% MMR Estimates $175.4 $175.1 $19.65 / Mcfe $0.22 / Mefe $30,613/ Mcfed $26,668/Mcfed Confidential $0.57 $0.51 Untisked $14.7500 $4.6002 $19.3502 $4,485 $4,593 Multiple High $19.65/Mcfe $0.22/Mcfe $30,613/ Mcfed $27,261/Mcfed 52-Week $13.74 $16.57 25.2% 23.4x 23.4x 30.2x 55.52 (1) ORRI Trust uit vahe based on the midpoint of the per unit value of the ORRI Trust at a 10% discount rate and an 11% discount rate using the NAV Assumptions under NYMEX Strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 assuming a $16.90 offer value for purposes of calculating make-whole and fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date EVERCORE PARTNERS 1 $7.25 3.8% 137.3% Low MCMoRan#5Transaction Overview Summary of Selected Proposed Merger Agreement Terms Valuation / Consideration: $14.75 in cash, without interest, and 1.15 units of the newly formed royalty trust (the "ORRI Trust") Each ORRI Trust unit will entitle the Unitholder to an equal share of the 5.0% overnding royalty interest (ORRI") in McMoRan Exploration Co.'s ("McMoRan", "MMR", or the "Company") subsalt ultra-deep assets (the "Ultra-Deep Assets") Common Stock and Preferred Stock owned by Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. ("Freeport") or Merger Sub, or any of their respective Subsidianes, shall no longer be outstanding and shall automatically be cancelled and shall cease to exist (the "Cancelled Shares") Freeport owns 500,000 shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock with an initial conversion price of $16.00 which would equate to 33,164,664 common shares upon conversion, or 14.3% of the fully diluted shares outstanding. All of these shares would be cancelled in the merger Transaction Structure: Financing: Key Conditions to Closing: No Shop/ Fiduciary Out: Termination Fees: Timing: Related Party Transaction: ■ (1) I I 1 1 I - Convertible preferred stock and convertible notes not owned by Freeport will remain outstanding and will receive the merger consideration upon conversion in accordance with the applicable terms of each convertible preferred share series Merger Sub, a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Freeport, shall merge with and into McMoRan and the separate corporate existence of Merger Sub shall cease and McMoRan shall be the surviving corporation in the merger Freeport has delivered to McMoRan a true and complete copy of the executed debt commitment letter by and among the financing sources and Freeport providing for debt financing Stockholder approval shall have been obtained by a vote of the majority of MMR excluding Freeport and Plains E&P No injunction by any court or other tribunal of competent jurisdiction shall have been entered All waiting periods applicable to the Merger under the HSR Act shall have expired or been terminated The Form S-4 shall have been declared effective by the SEC Confidential "No Shop" provision for McMoRan subject to fiduciary exception, including right for McMoRan to respond to a bona fide written proposal that could reasonably be expected to lead to a proposal that is more favorable to McMoRan shareholders than the merger transaction with Freeport No ability to terminate Merger Agreement in event a superior proposal is received 3% of equity value payable by Freeport in the event of a change in recommendation by Freeport 3% of equity value payable by McMoRan in the event of a change in recommendation by McMoRan Transaction expenses will also be reimbursed Expected closing in Q1 2013 Freeport is also contemplating a concurrent acquisition of Plains Exploration and Production Company ("Plains E&P"), which currently owns 31.5% (basic) of the voting shares of the Company. Consummation of the Proposed Transaction is not contingent upon Freeport's contemplated acquisition of Plains E&P Assumes an implied offer value of $16.90 per share and a closing date of December 31, 2012 for purposes of calculating the applicable make-whole EVERCORE PARTNERS MCMORAN#6Transaction Overview Summary of Selected ORRI Trust Proposed Terms Overriding Royalty Percentage: Term: Call Option: Termination Clauses: Drilling, Operating and Development Costs: Drilling Obligation: Trust Expenses: ■ ■ EVERCORE PARTNERS 5.0% gross overriding royalty interest in and to the hydrocarbons produced from McMoRan's Ultra-Deep Assets (leases below 18,000 feet) 20 years Non-callable for five years Callable at $10.00 per unit after year five Confidential After five years, if the volume-weighted average price for any nine month period is below $0.25 per unit, Freeport can buy all (but not less than all) outstanding units for $0.25 per unit Freeport has the right to terminate the trust upon a vote of the holders of 80% of the publicly traded units not owned by Freeport. After five years, the 80% required vote drops to 66-2/3% Free and clear of any and all drilling, development and operating costs and expenses Shall be subject to and bear transportation and marketing fees and production and other like taxes The ORRI Trust will have no ability to influence the exploration or development of the Ultra-Deep Assets Freeport will fund the administrative and reporting obligations of the ORRI Trust, subject to an expense ceiling 3 MCMORan#7Transaction Overview Evercore Evaluation Process ■ In connection with its review of the Proposed Transaction, Evercore has, among other things: Reviewed certain publicly available business and financial information relating to the Company that Evercore deemed to be relevant, including publicly available research analysts' estimates; - - - - - Confidential Reviewed and discussed with the Company's management certain non-public projected financial and operating data relating to the Company prepared and furnished to Evercore by management of the Company; Discussed past and current operations, financial projections and current financial condition of the Company with management of the Company (including their views on the risks and uncertainties of achieving such projections); Reviewed a report regarding the Company's proved, probable and possible reserves prepared by Ryder Scott Company, L.P. ("Ryder Scott") dated as of July 1, 2012 (the "Reserve Report") with representatives from Ryder Scott; Reviewed the impact of different commodity price assumptions on the net asset value of the Company's proved, probable and possible reserves, as well as the resources potential of the Ultra-Deep Assets, using customary adjustments to reflect an October 1, 2012 effective date for this analysis; Reviewed and discussed with MMR technical personnel the Company's resource potential from its Ultra-Deep Assets prepared and furnished to Evercore by management of the Company; Evercore developed risking assumptions of the Company's resource potential from the Company's Ultra-Deep Assets utilizing Evercore's technical team, which Evercore discussed with the Company's technical personnel, who deemed the assumptions reasonable; Reviewed the reported prices and the historical trading activity of the Company's common stock; Compared the financial performance of the Company and its stock market trading multiples with those of certain other publicly-traded companies that Evercore deemed relevant; Compared the financial performance of the Company and the valuation multiples implied by the Proposed Transaction with those of certain other transactions that Evercore deemed relevant; Reviewed a draft of the Merger Agreement dated December 4, 2012; and Performed such other analyses and examinations and considered such other factors that Evercore deemed appropriate. EVERCORE PARTNERS MCMORAR#8II. Situation Analysis EVERCORE PARTNERS#9Situation Analysis Overview Share Price (December 3, 2012) Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding Market Capitalization Plus: 5.75% Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock Plus: 11.875% Senior Notes Due 2016 Plus: 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2017 Plus: 5.25% Convertible Notes Due 2013 Less: Cash Total Enterprise Value Key Company Data & Implied Metrics Estimates and Implied Metrics Price Cash Flow per share 2012E 2013E EV/EBITDAX 2012E 2013E EV Proved Reserves ($/Mcfe) EV/ Production ($/Mcfed) Current 2013E Net Debt + Pref. / Net Book Capitalization Net Debt + Pref. / 2012E EBITDAX Net Debt + Pref/ Proved Reserves ($/Mcfe) Net Debt + Pref/ Proved Developed Reserves ($/Mofe) (2) (3) McMoRan (2) Data $0.62 $0.56 $159.0 $162.6 208.5 133,809 153,600 2,674.4 $159.0 208.5 170.6 $8.72 164.5 $1,434 700 300 200 68 (192) $2,510 Metric 14.1x 15.6x 15.8x 15.4x $12.04 $18,760 $16.343 40.2% 6.8x $5.16 $6.31 in Share Price 5 Confidential (in millions, except per share amounts) Two Year Price Performance (12/6/10 - 12/3/12) 200% 150% by 100% 50% Current Price Max Includes conversion of 12.115 million 5.0% convertible perpetual preferred shares (164.95 shares per preferred share) into 2.0 million shares Based on 1/B/E/S estimates Peer Group includes Cobalt, Energy XXI, EPL Oil & Gas, Stone Energy and W&T Offshore EVERCORE PARTNERS Mean Median $8.72 18.74 Min Simple Average Price - Trading 5-Day 30-Day 90-Day 180-Day 1 Year 2 Year 13.76 13.51 7.99 $8.50 11.52 12.29 11.32 12.00 13.74 0% 12/6/10 4/30/11 McMoRan Exploration Co. 9/23/11 Herste 2/15/12 7/10/12 Peer Group (3) 127% Natural Gas :80% 55% 12/3/12 MCMORan#10Share Price Situation Analysis Historical Share Trading Performance $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 S-- 12/5/11 1/17/12: Announced 2011 year-end results I 1/14/12 EVERCORE PARTNERS 3/26/12: Announced flare at Davy Jones No. 1. however flowrates were not determinable 1/31/12: Exploration and Development Update 3/7/12: Letter to shareholders 2/23/12 I I 4/4/12 6/22/12: Announced that the Company was the apparent high bidder on 14 lease blocks in GOM Shelf I 4/17/12: Announced first-quarter 2012 results I 4/19/12: Announced Davy Jones update 5/14/12 7/17/12: Announced 2Q 2012 Results Volume 6 I 6/24/12 Price 7/30/12: Announced updated activity at Davy Jones No. 1. which included the delay of planned flow test 8/15/12: Commenced offer to exchange 5% convertible senior notes due 2012 I 9/4/12: Announced operations update 8/3/12 9/13/12: Completes exchange offer 11/26/12: Announced a delay in flowtesting operations at Davy Jones No. 1 and the discovery of hydrocarbon bearing porous sands from the Lineham Creek well 9/13/12 10/19/12:Announced third-quarter 2012 results Confidential 10/23/12 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 12/3/12 Poloms (Thomabda) MCMORAR#11Situation Analysis Summary Financial Projections - Assumptions The following financial projections summarize McMoRan's operating model (the "MMR Operating Model") as provided by McMoRan management The projections incorporate all activity associated with McMoRan's conventional Gulf Coast onshore and Gulf of Mexico Shelf assets (the "Conventional Assets") In addition, the projections incorporate the development of MMR's Ultra-Deep Assets utilizing the following assumptions: 100% success rate on exploration wells (no dry hole costs) Gross prospect size of 2 Tcfe To develop a 2 Tcfe discovery requires 3 development wells drilled per year following an initial discovery well up to 10 total successful wells - - 200 Bcfe gross reserves per well (95% natural gas, 5% condensate) Drilling cost per well of $100 million Completion cost per well of $100 million Facilities cost of $43 million per well 1 year drilling duration per well and 6 months to complete per well Wells commence 18 months following spud date · NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and held flat thereafter Assumed 35% U.S. Federal corporate tax rate ■ Financing for free cash flow shortfall assumed to come from a revolving credit facility with a 4.0% annualized interest rate EVERCORE PARTNERS MCMoRan - - Confidential - -#12Situation Analysis Summary Financial Projections Production Natural Gas (Bef) Oil (MMBbls) Plant Products (Befe) Total Befe) Daily (Befed) Realized Prices Natural Gas ($/Mcf) Crude Oil ($/Bbl) Oil and Natural Gas Revenue Less: LOE Less: G&A Adjusted EBITDAX Less: Interest Expense Less: Preferred Dividends Less: Cash Taxes Discretionary Cash Flow Less: Capex Free Cash Flow EVERCORE PARTNERS 2012E 32.4 2.1 5.4 50.5 138 $3.42 $8.43 $381 ($155) (51) $175 (41) $132 ($550) ($417) Summary Financial Projections 2013E 40.5 2.0 2.5 54.8 150 $3.73 91.32 $351 ($127) (49) $175 ($15) $119 ($500) ($381) 2014E 95.4 2.2 1.7 110.6 303 $4.10 91.36 $610 ($127) $434 ($26) (41) $365 ($749) ($384) 8 2015E 145.6 3.0 1.3 164.6 451 $4.27 89.43 $894 ($126) (49) $719 ($32) (41) $640 ($551) $89 2016E 187.5 3.1 0.8 207.2 568 $4.42 87.67 $1,110 ($122) $939 (41) (68) $806 ($489) $317 2017E 228.7 2.7 3.1 248.1 680 $4.60 86.46 $1.310 ($120) (49) $1,142 ($12) (41) (232) $856 ($493) $364 2018E Confidential ($ in millions) 262.9 3.1 3.4 285.0 781 $4.60 86.46 $1.504 ($121) (49) $1,334 ($37) (41) (316) $940 ($443) $497 2019E 281.8 3.0 1.2 301.0 825 $4.60 86.46 $1,565 ($115) (49) $1,401 ($36) (41) (380) $943 ($437) $506 McMoRan#13III. Financial Analysis EVERCORE PARTNERS#14Financial Analysis Valuation Methodologies ■ In analyzing the Proposed Transaction, Evercore utilized the following methodologies for its preliminary valuation of McMoRan: Methodology Net Asset Valuation ("NAV") Analysis Peer Group Trading Analysis Precedent Transactions Analysis Research Analyst Price Target Risked NAV Analysis Assuming Hypothetical Joint Venture EVERCORE PARTNERS Description Valuation based on the present value of the future after-tax cash flows expected to be generated from MMR's proved and non- proved reserves and resources Valuation based on public trading metrics of E&P companies with similar assets Valuation based on metrics of transaction value to cash flow, EBITDAX, proved reserves and current production for corporate M&A transactions and premiums paid in corporate transactions with all cash consideration in 2012 YTD ■ Valuation based on metrics of transaction value to proved reserves, current production and risked resources for asset transactions involving acquisitions of similar assets Valuation based on current Wall Street analyst price targets Valuation based on the present value of the future after-tax cash flows expected to be generated from MMR's proved and non- proved reserves and resources assuming the Company enters into a hypothetical joint venture agreement 9 I ■ I I Confidential Assumptions Cash flows based on the Reserve Report and the Company's resource estimates for its Ultra-Deep Assets I Proved reserves based on the Reserve Report Financial projections based on I/B/E/S estimates Reviewed trading multiples for selected GOM and onshore Gulf Coast companies Proved reserves based on the Reserve Report I Cash flow and EBITDAX based on the MMR Operating Model I Reviewed selected transactions that included assets in the Gulf of Mexico shelf and onshore Gulf Coast since 2009 with a transaction value greater than $20 million Reviewed selected transactions that included assets in the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater and Ultra-Deep Shelf Reviewed resource trading multiples for Cobalt International Energy, Inc. ("Cobalt") m Discounted back Wall Street analyst 12-month price targets to present value using a 13.3% discount rate representing MMR's equity cost of capital Cash flows based on the Reserve Report and the Company's resource estimates for its Ultra-Deep Assets I Company would sell a 25.0% working interest in the Ultra-Deep Assets for $800 million in the form of a combination of cash and drilling capex carry MCMORan#15Financial Analysis Summary Valuation $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 -$5.00 -$10.00 $17.25 (L) $12.61 NYMEX Strip (12/1/12) 1 I $0.26 -$2.72 1 I I Cash consideration: $14.75 $13.14 Rinloed NAV Analywin $75.000/$300 Gav $8.33 59000C/54.00 $22.35 $10500/350 Ga I Cash plus 1.15 ORRI I Trust units (Risked): $17.20 (1) I I- $16.33 $7.68 Peer Group Trating Analyvin Proved Reserves $2.50-$3.25/Mefe I) Prodamon $6,500-$700/Mefed 2612EEBIDAX Ner Rod ReLICE $010-058/Mefe $20.83 $13.49 Przedem Ar Gulf of Micro Shaif Prod Reserves $250-$3.50/Mefe LC) Product Gulf C Ossbon Proved Reserv $250-54.00/Mefic 1) Produ 1 Cash plus 1.15 ORRI Trust units 1 | (Unrisked): $19.35 $11.67 $5.66 Procasten Train Pretendent Corporac Can Pred Reserves $800-3:200/Mele LQ Produm $2000-$250/ Mefed 2012E EBITDAX 145-17.0x 2016 EBTIDAX 120-155 $16.98 $10.23 Takeover Prem $18.53 $8.83 Confidential Rich Analys Price Target Prom Value of 12-More Pric Lange Documed a 133% (MMR's uryce of capital $16.13 Lira-Deep Ner Rished Revo Vans ORRI Trust it raine based on the midpoint of the per unit value of the ORRI Trust at a 10% discount rate and an 11% discount rate using the NAV Assumptions under NYMEX Staip pricing as of December 3, 2012, assuming a $16.90 offer value for purposes of calculating make-whole and fally diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date EVERCORE PARTNERS 10 $12.46 Rinked NAV Analyxi Assuming Hypothetical Jain Venture NYMEX Smp (12/1/12) Jan Venne Vime of min condon imprid of $50 min af upinam cad $3000m of decling carry wurking in in MMR's Lia-Deup Asses MCMoRan#16Financial Analysis Net Asset Value Analysis - Assumptions ■ The following represents the assumptions utilized by Evercore in its net asset value analysis (the "NAV Assumptions") ■ Projections of proved, probable and possible production, operating costs, and capital expenditures based on the Reserve Report rolled forward to October 1, 2012 Volumes and risking for specific Ultra-Deep prospects and discoveries (as per MMR estimates) Geologic and mechanical risking was estimated by Evercore and reviewed by MMR's technical team with Evercore I - - - - Utilized an expected value analysis based on the assumed geologic and mechanical risking Each well has a 200 Bcfe EUR - Gross well costs of $243.0 million per well (as per MMR estimates) comprised of: $100.0 million and 1 year to drill $100.0 million and 6 months to complete Developed using a continuous four rig program through 2014, going to a six rig program in 2015 and finally an eight rig program by 2016, held constant thereafter Lineham Creek Yegua wells begin drilling in January 2014 with an incremental non-operated drilling rig Production for each well of 70 MMcfed held flat for six years, then exponential decline (as per MMR estimates) Condensate is 5% of well stream (8.8 bb1/MMcf) Confidential $43.0 million to equip and tie-in First production after 18 months EVERCORE PARTNERS 11 MCMORan#17Financial Analysis Net Asset Value Analysis - Assumptions (cont'd) ■ Lineham Creek Yegua wells assumed to cost $60.0 million to drill, $40.0 million to complete, $43.0 million to equip and tie-in and have a condensate ratio of 50.0 bb1/MMcf ■ Operating costs are $150,000 per well per month plus $0.15 per Mcfe of transportation costs (as per MMR estimates) NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and then held flat thereafter Three sensitivity cases: $75.00/Bbl oil, $3.00/MMBtu gas; $90.00/Bbl oil, $4.00/MMBtu gas; $105.00/Bbl oil, $5.00/MMBtu gas held flat Effective date of October 1, 2012 ■ ■ Confidential G&A expense of $40.0 million per year plus an incremental $30.0 million per year of ultra-deep G&A beginning in 2014E ■ Insurance cost of $15.0 million per year plus an incremental insurance cost for the ultra-deep of 25% of ultra-deep lease operating expense Included sulphur reclamation expense at a PV-10 value of $18.6 million ■ Capital expenditures allocated 80% to intangible drilling costs ("IDCs") and 20% to tangible drilling costs ("TDCs") - IDCs are expensed as incurred and TDCs are depreciated using a 7-year MACRS schedule ■ Utilization of estimated U.S. Federal net operating loss carry forwards of $717.0 million as of December 31, 2011 ■ U.S. Federal income tax rate of 35.0% ■ Escrow funding payments of $5.0 million per year through 2017 to support the funding requirements related to the 2007 oil and gas acquisition property reclamation obligations EVERCORE PARTNERS 12 MCMoRan#18Financial Analysis Reserve Report - Summary Ryder Scott prepared an estimate of the proved, probable and possible reserves, future production and income attributable to MMR The effective date of the Reserve Report is July 1, 2012 Evercore's technical team has mechanically rolled the Reserve Report forward (to reflect only actual production) to an effective date of October 1, 2012 and has updated the benchmark price deck to a NYMEX strip as of December 3, 2012 Evercore has also adjusted the Reserve Report for asset sales at West Delta, Mississippi Canyon and Eugene Island (sold 22.6 Befe of proved reserves) based on data received from MMR Reserve Category PDP 14% POSS PDBP 35% PROB 20% PUD 11% Operated Status Operated Non-Op 45% 55% EVERCORE PARTNERS Product Mix Gas 65% Oil 26% Offshore 85% NGL 9% Onshore vs. Offshore Onshore 15% 13 Ryder Scott Reserves (December 3, 2012 NYMEX Strip; Effective October 1, 2012) Reserve Category PDP PDBP PDSI PUD Total Proved Reserves Probable Total 2P Reserves Possible Total 3P Reserves Reserve Category PDP PDBP PDSI PUD Total Proved Reserves Probable Total 2P Reserves Possible Total 3P Reserves Reserre CategoIT PDP PDEP PDSI PUD Total Proved Reserves Probable Total 2P Reserves Possible Total 3P Reserves Gulf of Mexico Shelf NGL (045) A 3,210 6,477 0 307 95 334 10,521 2,330 12,852 1,299 14,150 Gulf Coast Onshore 143 545 322 867 131 998 On 000 335 1,695 3,518 6,572 658 2,691 917 3.600 1,352 4,960 0 977 11,067 2,652 13,719 1,430 15,148 NGL 199 36 5,038 19,967 13.120 33,107 12.95 46,064 Total Conventional Assets Gas ADM 235 18 253 10 263 NGL (460) 534 1,734 Gas 656 2,927 935 3,861 1,362 5,223 14,631 35,905 66,56+ 115,914 5 6 23.055 32,005 104,558 183,833 34.365 53,850 135,923 237,683 +1,359 180,282 57,263 294,946 Gas (AMg") Confidential 11,025 3,924 Equi Equir 14,063 4,740 5,898 24,671 15,156 39,827 13.802 53,629 Equi 25,657 70,765 5 6 28,095 37,906 124,545 208,504 47,455 172,030 69,006 277,510 71,065 54,316 226,346 348,575 49,969 120,623 PV-10 (MM) $1.1 $534.5 $0.0 $46.5 $582.1 $159.3 $741.4 $156.1 $899.5 PV-10 (SMM) $39.4 $15.7 $0.0 $15.3 $70.4 $118.1 $36.6 $154.7 PV-10 $40.5 $550.2 $0.0 $61.5 $652.5 $207.0 $859.5 $194.7 $1,054.2 MCMORan#19Financial Analysis Ultra-Deep Assets Overview Prospect Offshore Davy Jones Blackbeard East Lafitte Blackbeard West Offshore Discoveries Total England Barbosa Morgan Barataria Blackbeard West #3 Drake Davy Jones West Hurricane Hook Captain Blood Bonnet Queen Anne's Revenge Calico Jack Offshore Prospects Total Onshore Lineham Creek - Yegua Onshore Discoveries Total Highlander Lineham Creek Tortuga Category Onshore Prospects Total Risked Volume Potential for MMR's Ultra-Deep Assets Gross Unrisked Resource Potential WI Discovery % 50.2% Discovery 63.4% Discovery 72.0% 57.4% Discovery 72.0% 58.3% Discovery 69.4% 53.1% NRI Prospect 36.0% 28.8% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 69.4% 55.5% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Total Ultra-Deep EVERCORE PARTNERS Prospect 36.0% 28.8% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 36.0% 28.8% Near Term Drill 72.0% 57.6% Drilling 36.0% 28.8% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 36.0% 28.8% Befe 3,248 1,040 2,342 804 7,434 27,300 2,588 1,000 2,820 498 14,580 1,400 1,575 4,890 18,000 3,150 1,296 7,000 86,097 3.000 3,000 13,300 10,800 5.590 29,690 126,221 Net Unrisked Resource Potential Befe 1,631 597 1,365 427 4,020 7,862 1,491 576 1,624 276 8,398 403 907 2,817 10,368 1,814 746 2,016 39,300 864 864 7,661 3,110 3,220 13,991 58,175 Geologic Mechanical COS COS % % $0.0% $0.0% 80.0% 80.0% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 28.9% 30.5% 30.5% 28.9% 30.5% 28.9% 30.5% 30.5% 80.0% 30.5% 30.5% 28.9% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% Gross Risked Resource Potential Befe 2,321 737 1,601 592 5,252 7,487 721 281 776 288 3,765 391 446 1,257 4,957 788 336 1.931 23,424 2.176 2,176 3,578 2,976 1.465 8,020 38,872 Confidential Net Risked Resource Potential Befe 1,165 423 933 315 2,836 2,156 415 162 447 160 2,169 113 257 724 2,855 454 194 556 10,661 627 627 2,061 857 844 3,762 17,887 McMoRan#20Financial Analysis Net Asset Value Analysis - Proved Developed Producing Proved Developed Behind-Pipe Proved Undeveloped Proved Reserves Probable Proved plus Probable Reserves Possible 3P Reserves Ultra Deep Upside (Risked) P&A Developed Properties) Gross Asset Value Less: G&A Less: Insurance Less: Sulphur Reclaimation Expense Pre-Tax Net Asset Value Less: Cash Taxes After-Tax Net Asset Value Add: Cash Less: Debt Less: Preferred Shares Equity Value Fully Diluted Shares $/Share EVERCORE PARTNERS Discount Rate 8% - 10% 10% -12% 15%-20% 20% - 30% 30% -40% 10% -12% 8% - 10% 12%-15% 8% - 10% 10% - 10% 12%-15% Price Sensitivity NYMEX Strip (12/3/12) Low High $253 513 39 $805 90 $895 80 $975 4,087 (212) $4,849 (463) (295) (19) $4,073 (914) $3,158 192 (568) (700) NAV Summary $2.082 165.1 $12.61 $258 550 48 $857 128 $985 102 $1,087 5,519 (224) $6,383 (575) (371) (19) $5,417 (1.311) $4,106 192 (300) 0 $3.998 231.8 $17.25 $75.00 Oil / $3.00 Gas Low High 15 $181 381 14 $577 62 $639 50 $689 1.184 (212) $1,660 (463) (295) (19) $884 (236) $648 192 (568) (712) Commodity Prices ($440) 162.0 ($2.72) $185 409 20 $614 90 $704 65 $769 1,917 $2,461 (575) (371) (19) $1,496 (365) $1,131 192 (568) (712) $43 162.0 $0.26 $90.00 Oil / $4.00 Gas Low High $258 507 38 $803 87 $890 78 $967 3.167 (212) $3,922 (463) (295) (19) $3,145 (699) $2,445 192 (568) (700) $1.370 164.4 $8.33 $264 544 46 $853 124 $978 99 $1,076 4,373 (224) $5,225 (575) (371) (19) $4,260 (1.014) $3,247 192 (568) (700) $2.171 165.2 $13.14 Confidential ($in millions) $105.00 Oil / $5.00 Gas Low High $335 633 61 $1,028 112 $1,140 105 $1,245 5,150 (212) $6,183 (463) (295) (19) $5,406 (1.220) $4,186 192 (300) 0 $4.078 231.8 $17.59 $342 678 73 $1,093 159 $1,252 132 $1,384 6,830 (224) $7,989 (575) (371) (19) $7,024 (1.721) $5,303 192 (300) 0 $5.195 232.4 $22.35 MCMoRan#21Financial Analysis Peer Group Trading Analysis Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited W&T Offshore, Inc. Stone Energy Corporation EPL Oil & Gas, Inc. Company Mean Median McMoRan Exploration Co. Company Cobalt McMoRan Exploration Co. (3) (+) Price Equity Enterprise 12/3/12 Value Value ($/share) (MM) (JMM) $31.32 $2.766 $16.40 $1,260 $19.91 $999 $21.05 $834 $1.465 $1,129 $8.72 $1,434 Area $3,772 $1,972 $1.634 $1,032 $2.103 $1.803 $2,510 Total Company (GOM, Angola and Gabon) GOM (Miocene and Lower Tertiary) GOM Aiocene Only) GOM (Lower Tertiary Only Africa (Angola and Gabon) Conventional Assets Trading Peers Enterprise Value / Price / CFPS Production Proved Reserves Current 2013E 2012E 2013E ($/Mcfc) $/Mefed) ($/Micfied) pd (pd) $5.26 $2.51 $2.68 $2.24 $3.25 $2.75 $12.04 Price $16,864 $8,123 $6.516 $15,883 $8.72 EBITDAX Value 12/3/12 ($/share) (SMM) $23.60 $9,795 $10,721 $6,094 3.8x $5.883 2.6x $7,586 3.7% Equity Enterprise Value (SMM) $1,434 $11,546 $7.571 3.6 $12,003 $6,540 3.8x $18,760 $16,343 15.8x Ultra-Deep Assets Trading Peers (1) $9,553 $2.979 $1,450 $1.529 $6.574 $2,510 3.5x 3.3x 16 Reserve & Production Statistics 2012E 2013E Proved Res % Gas % Dev. LQ Prod. 2012E pd pd (Beje) 3.4x 2.6x 2.6x 2.3x Risked (Befe) 2.9 2.9 2.1x 2.1x 15.4 14.1x 15.6x 2.0x 3.0 96,439 14,935 6,498 8,436 $1.504 17,887 Resource (2)(3) Unrisked (Befe) 321,638 63.104 19,808 43.295 258,535 58,175 718 29.1% 701 41.3% 609 54.6% 460 40.0% 622 41.3% 66.9% 655 40.7% 66.9% 209 59.7% 81.8% % Gas 2013E R/P (Micfed) Mefed) (Years) 63.3% 223,700 287,646 351,872 65.5% 242,750 285,740 323,543 59.8% 250,837 251,066 277,840 74.0% 64.964 80,710 136,023 0% 0% Confidential ($ in millions) 95% 195,563 226,291 272,319 233,225 268,403 300,692 133,809 137,400 153,600 Adj. Enterprise Value Risked Resource ($/Mcfe) $0.10 $0.00 $0.22 $0.15 $0.08 $0.11 Source: FactSet Note: Prored reserves as of latest published reserve report, adjusted for subsequent acquisitions and direstitures (1) Cobalt value allocated by area based on the value attributed to each area by street research as a percentage of total NAV Cobalt resource numbers represent the average of street research estimates Oil converted to gas equivalent on an economic equivalents basis using the average NYMEX forward strip pricing for WTI Oil and HHUB gas for the next 60 months as of December 3, 2012 (21.13:1) Enterprise rakue adjusted to remove the value of MeloRan's Courentional Assets EVERCORE PARTNERS (4) Unrisked Resource ($/Mcfe) $0.03 $0.05 $0.07 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 8.8 7.9 6.7 19.4 10.7 8.4 4.3 MCMoRay#22Financial Analysis Peer Group Trading Analysis - Valuation Summary Metric Conventional Assets Proved Reserves (Bcfe) LQ Production (Mcfed) Ultra-Deep Assets Peer Group Trading Analysis - Valuation Summary Relevant Multiples 2012E EBITDAX (SMM) Selected Conventional Asset Value Range Net Risked Resources (Bcfe) Data (1) Based on Company provided reserve and I/B/E 5 estimates EVERCORE PARTNERS Low $2.50 / Mcfe 208.5 133,809 $6,500/Mcfed 159.0 3.5x 17,887 $0.10 / Mcfe Implied Equity Value High $3.25/Mcfe $7,000/Mcfed 4.2x Implied Enterprise Value Range Add: Cash Less: Debt Less: Preferred Shares 17 $0.18/Mcfe Diluted Shares Outstanding Implied Equity Value per Share Value Range ($MM) Low $521 $870 $557 $550 $1,789 $2,339 192 (568) (700) Confidential $1,263 164.3 $7.68 High $678 $937 $668 $675 $3,220 $3,895 192 (300) $3,787 231.8 $16.33 MCMORan#23Financial Analysis Precedent Transactions - Gulf of Mexico Shelf Date 18-Oct-12 NGP/Northstar 26-Sep-12 Arena Energy 17-Sep-12 EPL 7-Sep-12 Renaissance Buyer 15-May-12 EPL 2-Feb-12 SandRidge 1-Dec-11 KNOC/SCL/STX/Samchully 1-Nov-11 Apache 1-Nov-11 EPL 25-Aug-11 Dynamic Offshore 29-Jul-11 Dynamic Offshore 1-May-11 Dynamic Offshore 7-Apr-11 TRT/Tana 9-Mar-11 Undisclosed 13-Jan-11 EPL 21-Nov-10 Energy XXI (Bennuda) 20-Sep-10 McMoRan 3-Nov-10 W&T Maximum Minimum Mean Median Selected Precedent Gulf of Mexico Shelf M&A Transactions Seller Undisclosed Private McMoRan Hilcorp McMoRan W&T Dynamic Riverstone NGP/Northstar Stone Stone Moreno/SPN Exxon Mobil Gryphon/Woodside Maritech/TETRA National Fuel/Seneca Anglo-Suisse Exxon Mobil Plains Shell Trans. Reserves Value Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. (%) (IMM) (Befe) $160 $37 $550 $28 $32 $1.256 $201 $38 $38 $68 $183 $28 $150 $70 $201 $1,012 $158) $37 $1,256 $28 $240 $70 44.4 15.2 217.8 6.0 375.0 64.8 7.8 7.8 21.3 $1.0 12.6 54.6 34.4 48.6 296.7 60.0 54.4 375.0 6.0 78.3 46.5 Source: IHS Herold (1) Represents 19% of the total transaction value which is the share McMoRan allocated to proved reserves EVERCORE PARTNERS 78% 22% 42% 46% 23% 49% 50% 30% 84% 50% 88% 100% 4% 2% 47% 75% 46% 76% 18 Production Prod. (Micfed) 12.600 10,000 60,000 100% 100% 35% 92% 61% 72% 88% 100% 37% 89% 74% 75% 28,793 16% 76% 18,000 39% 68% 120,000 85% 72% 5,760 150,000 28.200 2,460 2.460 8.214 42.000 1 % Gas R/P (%) (Years) 9.7 4.2 9.9 70% 50% 48% 50% 30% 1% 1% 35% 60% i 76% 8% 47% 45,000 26,700 150,000 2,460 37,346 45% 26,700 49% 85% 73% 85% 2.9 6.8 6.3 8.7 8.7 7.1 5.3 3.3 7.4 6.8 3.7 5.6 9.9 5 6.4 6.8 HHUB Implied Value / Proved Res. Production 12-Mo Strip 12-Mo Strip (3/Micje) /Mefed) MMBtu) ($/bb $3.60 $2.42 $2.53 $3.81 $5.40 $3.35 $3.10 $4.92 $4.92 $3.19 $2.25 $2.18 $2.75 $2.03 $4.13 $3.41 $2.63 $0.67 $5.40 $0.67 $3.18 $3.15 $12,698 $3,680 $9,167 $5,621 $8,371 $7.128 $15,610 $15,610 $8,279 $4.345 Confidential $2,431 $11.150 $8,433 $3,501 $1,375 $15,610 $1,375 $7,827 $8,279 $3.91 $3.49 $3.42 $3.26 $3.02 $2.89 $3.75 $4.09 $4.09 $4.20 $4.52 $4.98 $4.57 $4.28 $4.72 $4.37 $4.44 $4.21 $4.98 $2.89 $4.01 $4.15 WTI $94.01 $92.50 $99.87 $96.84 $95.94 $99.10 $99.69 $92.51 $92.81 $87.47 $99.76 $114.41 $110.21 $106.32 $94.89 $83.60 $79.08 $86.18 $114.41 $79.08 $95.86 $95.41 McMoRan#24Financial Analysis Precedent Transactions Gulf Coast Onshore Date 12-Oct-12 Texas Petr. 4-Oct-12 Undisclosed 19-Mar-12 Undisclosed 4-Nov-11 Undisclosed Buyer 31-Aug-11 Encore Energy Part. 17-Aug-11 EnergyQuest II 6-Jun-11 Linc Energy Ltd. 13-May-11 Undisclosed Private 3-Mar-11 Legend Nat. Gas 18-Jan-11 Gulf Coast Energy 17-Jan-11 Undisclosed Maximum Minimum Mean Median Source: IHS Herold: EVERCORE PARTNERS Seller Selected Precedent Gulf Coast Onshore M&A Transactions Forest Carrizo Comstock Plains Undisclosed Swift ERG Energy XXI (Bermuda Smith Cypress Strike Trans. Reserves Value Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. (JMM) (Beje) (%) (%) 38% 45.0 $220 $20 $123 $185 $48 $54 $236 $41 $99 $95 $22 $236 $20 $104 $95 63.2 120.0 12.6 92.2 123.0 8.3 123.0 8.3 66.3 63.2 -- 84% 100% 17% 65% 6% 1 - 100% 19% 19 81 100% 100% 19% 6% 52% 59% 52% 59% Production Prod. % Gas R/P (Micfed) (%) (Years) 20.000 5,720 11,296 39,000 6.2 35% 87% 81% 100% 17% 2,580 10.600 65% 18,600 9,710 5,800 11,020 39,000 2,580 13,733 10,810 82% 65% 91% 100% 6% 63% 73% -- 15.3 8.4 13.4 23.8 18.1 23.8 6.2 14.2 14.4 Implied Value / HHUB WTI Proved Res. Production 12-Mo Strip 12-Mo Strip ($/bbi) (3/Mcje) ($/Mcfed) ($/MMBx) $4.89 - $1.95 $1.54 $3.78 $0.58 $1.92 - $2.63 $4.89 $0.58 $2.47 $1.95 $11,000 $3,409 $10,589 $4,744 $18,450 $5,047 $12,688 $4,222 $11.273 $8,621 Confidential $18,450 $3,409 $9,034 $9,755 $3.97 $3.77 $2.92 $3.96 $4.29 $4.31 $4.93 $4.57 $4.25 $4.73 $4.71 $4.93 $2.92 $4.22 $4.29 $93.91 $89.73 $108.62 $93.30 $90.64 $88.50 $102.35 $100.07 $104.61 $94.51 $95.10 $108.62 $88.50 $96.48 $94.51 MCMORan#25Financial Analysis Precedent Transactions - GOM Deepwater (Non-Proved) and Ultra-Deep Shelf GOM Deepwater (Net Recoverable Resources) Date Maximum Minimum 2-Jul-12 INPEX 1-Oct-10 Hess BP 22-Dec-09 Maersk/Various Devon Mean Median Buyer Date Seller Buyer Seller Anadarko Trans. Net Recoverable Value Resources (SMM) (Befe) $556 $40 $1,300 $1,300 $40 $632 $556 129.6 144.0 1,645.0 (Ice) 6.6 0.1 1,645.0 129.6 639.5 144.0 Ultra-Deep Shelf (Net Unrisked Potential) Transaction Value / Trans. Ultra-Deep Net Value Unrisked Potential (SMM) Ultra-Deep Net Unrisked Potential McMoRan Plains $672(¹) 20-Sep-10 8-Sep-11 McMoRan Whitney $49 Source: IHS Herolds (1) Represents $1% of the total transaction value which is the share McMoRan allocated to unevaluated oil and gas property EVERCORE PARTNERS Implied Value/ Net Recoverable Resources (S/Mcfe) $4.29 $0.28 $0.79 20 $4.29 $0.28 $1.79 $0.79 (5/Mcfe) $0.10 $0.57 HHUB 12-Mo Strip (S/MMBx) $3.29 $4.28 $5.90 $5.90 $3.29 $4.49 $4.28 HHUB 12-Mo Strip (S/MMBtx) $4.44 $4.33 WTI 12-Mo Strip ($/bbl) $87.14 $83.28 $76.43 $87.14 $76.43 $82.28 $83.28 WTI 12-Mo Strip (3/bbl) $79.08 $90.18 Confidential McMoRan#26Financial Analysis Precedent Transactions - Ultra-Deep Shelf Value Prospect Offshore Davy Jones Blackbeard East Lafitte Blackbeard West Offshore Discoveries Total England Barbosa Morgan Barataria Blackbeard West #3 Drake Davy Jones West Hurricane Hook Captain Blood Bonnet Queen Anne's Revenge Calico Jack Offshore Prospects Total Onshore Lineham Creek-Yegua Onshore Discoveries Total Highlander Lineham Tortuga Onshore Prospects Total Total Ultra-Deep Category WI % Ultra-Deep Shelf Valuation Precedent Transactions Gross Unrisked NRI Resource Potential Discovery 63.4% 50.0% Discovery 72.0% 57.4% Discovery 72.0% 58.3% Discovery 69.4% 53.1% Prospect 36.0% 28.8% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 69.4% 55.3% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 36.0% 28.8% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Prospect 36.0% 28.8% EVERCORE PARTNERS Discovery 36.0% 28.8% Near Term Drill 72.0% 57.6% Drilling 36.0% 28.8% Prospect 72.0% 57.6% Befe 3,248 1,040 2,342 804 7,434 27,300 2,588 1,000 2,820 498 14,580 1,400 1,575 4,890 18,000 3,150 1.296 7,000 $6,097 3.000 3,000 13,300 10,800 5,590 29,690 126,221 Net Unrisked Resource Potential Befe 1,631 597 1,365 427 4,020 7,862 1,491 576 1,624 276 8,395 403 907 2,817 10.368 1.814 746 2,016 39,300 864 564 7,661 3,110 3,220 13,991 58,175 21 Gross Risked Net Risked Resource Potential Resource Potential Befe 2,321 737 1,601 592 5,252 7,487 281 776 288 3,765 391 446 1.257 4.957 788 336 1.931 23,424 2,176 2,176 3.578 2,976 1.465 8,020 38,872 Befe 1,165 423 933 315 2,836 2,156 $ 415 $ 162 $ $ 160 $ 2,169 $ 113 257 724 $ $ 2,855 10,661 627 627 Low 4/Mofe 454 5 194 $ 556 S 3,762 $ 0.50 $ $ $ 0.25 $ 0.25 $ 0.25 $ $ 17,887 in in Metric Used 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 0.10 $ 0.15 0.10 $ 0.15 $ 0.10 S 0.15 0.10 S 0.10 S 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 2,061 S 857 $ 844 $ $ High 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.10 S 0.10 $ 0.10 S 0.50 $ 0.75 0.15 0.15 0.15 Confidential Implied Valuation Low SMM $563 106 233 79 $1,000 $216 42 16 45 16 217 11 26 286 45 19 56 $1,066 314 $314 $206 56 84 $376 $2,756 High SMM $699 211 467 157 $1,535 $323 62 24 67 325 17 39 109 428 68 83 $1,599 470 $470 $309 129 127 $564 $4,168 McMoRan#27Financial Analysis Precedent Transactions - Valuation Summary Metric Gulf of Mexico Shelf Proved Reserves (Bcfe) Current Production (Mcfed) Selected Gulf of Mexico Shelf Value Range Gulf Coast Onshore Proved Reserves (Bcfe) Current Production (Mcfed) Selected Gulf Coast Onshore Value Range Total Conventional Asset Value Range Ultra-Deep Assets Precedent Asset Transactions - Valuation Summary Net Risked Resources (Bcfe) EVERCORE PARTNERS Data 183.8 3.211 24.7 30,598 17,887 Relevant Multiples Low $2.50/Mcfe $5,000/Mcf $2.50 / Mcfe $3,500/Mcfed 22 High Implied Equity Value $3.50/Mcfe $7,000/Mcfed $4.00 / Mcfe $5,000/Mcfed Various (See Previous Page) Implied Enterprise Value Range Add: Cash Less: Debt Less: Preferred Shares Diluted Shares Outstanding Implied Equity Value per Share Value Range ($MM) Low High $460 $516 $475 $62 $107 $75 $550 $2,756 $3,306 192 (568) (700) Confidential $2.230 165.3 $13.49 $643 $722 $650 $99 $153 $125 $775 $4,168 $4,943 192 (300) 0 $4,835 232.1 $20.83 MCMoRan#28Financial Analysis Precedent M&A Transactions - Corporate Date Buyer 25-Apr-12 Halcon 17-Oct-11 Statoil ASA 15-Jul-11 BHP Billiton 9-Nor-10 Cherron Seller GeoResources Brigham Exploration Petrohauk Atlas Energy 2-Jun-10 SandRidge Energy Arenn Resources 15-Apr-10 Apache Mariner Energy STO 14-Dec-09 Exxon Mobil 1-Nor-09 Deabury Resources 27-Apr-09 Atlas Energy, Inc. 30-Apr-08 Stoce Energy 17-Jul-07 Plain: E&P 7-Jan-07 Forest Oil 23-Jun-06 Anadarko 23-Jun-06 Anadarko 21-Apr-05 Petrohawk 23-Jan-06 Heli 12-Dec-05 ConocoPhillips 13-Oct-05 Occidental Petrolen 19-Sep-05 North Hydro ASA Encore Acquisition Co. Ath: Energy Resources Bois d'Arc Energy Pogo Producing Co. Houston Exploration Western Gas Res. Kerr-McGee KCS Energy Remington Burlington Resources Vintage Petroleum Spinuaker Exploration Max Mean Median Min Transaction Value/ Premium Reserve & Production Statistics Trans. Equity Equity Value / Value Value Cash Flow Cash Flow EBITDA EBITDA Proved Res. Prod. 1 Day 1-Mo. 2-Mo. Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. R/P GEMM) (MM) Carreat Fernand Farmard /Mcft) G/Mcfol (%) (Refe) (Years) 12.4 10.9 11.2 27.9 23.1 (x) 190.2 36% 70% 400.8 22% 35% 3,391.5 92% 35% 547.0 99% 415.5 37% 1,067.1 53% 66% 14,827.3 54% 61% 1,321.7 33% 50% 517.6 99% 335.0 57% 1,3140 65% 9.6 14.0 13.4 27.9 5.0 12.2 60% 74% 73% 5.9 699.3 96% 67% 920.5 97% 12.S 5,388.0 62% 60% 10.0 5.4 463.0 55% 73% 276.9 60% 57% 68% 73% Source: IHS Herold, FactSet Note: Only includes transactions greater than $100 million EVERCORE PARTNERS $945 $973 $4,822 $4,465 $15,223 $12,065 $4,315 $3,215 $1,287 $1,394 $4,685 $2,770 $+0,495 $31,25+4 $4,465 $2,56+ $1,015 $482 $1,750 $1,736 $3,749 $3,59+ $1,627 $1,574 $5,355 $4,500 $19.623 $16,500 $2,000 $1,630 $1,312 $1,365 $36,400 $34.639 $4,119 $3,539 $2,592 $2,596 $40,496 $8,212 $4,119 $945 7.5x 14.7% 10.1m 15.1m 5.4 5.3x 5.3x 6.8 2.4x 5.4 5.5 10.T= 5.5 6.5x 7.9% 8.2 18.1x 7.8x 7.1x 2.4x 6.1x 15.2 6.4 5.5x 6.9x 5.0 6.2 3.6m 9.9% 5.7x 4.7% 4.7% 6.6x 6.5x 15.2x 6.4x 6.2x 2.4x 6.8 l 10.3x 17.1= 7.9x 5.9x 10.7% 3.3x 5.6 5.5x 4.1= 10.6 5.6 6.0 7.0x 7.9% 17.1x 7.9 7.0x 3.3x 5.2 5.0 7.6x 15.6m 6.1x 5.7x 6.6x 5.S 4.9% 5.2 3.5m 9.0 5.7% 4.9% 5.3x 6.1x 6.0 15.6 6.4x 5.7 3.2x 23 $4.97 $15,175 23% 26% $12.03 $47,537 20% 26% 11% $2.75 $11,274 65% 49% 46% $1.73 $17,605 37% 62% 49% $3.05 $25,728 (6%) 2% $3.13 $10,9++ 45% 68% 92% $1.92 $9,797 25% 20% $2.72 $13,256 35% 38% (5%) 32% $2.45 $11,095 15% 11% 19% $1.46 $14,827 0% 60% $4.45 $13,065 (4%) 21% $2.42 $7,544 5% $2.90 $13,563 49% $3.14 $11.450 27% $3.54 $10,822 10% 46% $4.29 22% 23% $2.58 $11,173 19% 26% 20% $1.38 $7,929 32% 31% 53% $6.04 $15,847 49% 36% $12.03 $47,837 65% 68% 92% $3.53 $15,098 26% 29% 29% $2.90 $13,068 23% 26% 26% $1.38 $7,844 (4%) (7%) (5%) 51% 15% 12,454.2 2,623.2 373.6 49% 34% 14,827 99% 80% 2,520 63% 58% 847 62% 61% 190 14% 34% 9.3 11.8 15.7 7.2 27.9 13.4 11.8 7.2 Confidential HHUB WTI Spot Price Spot Price /MMBix) (/) $103.16 56.50 95.69 $7.06 $1.97 3.49 4.42 3.49 4.39 4.15 5.21 4.11 3.31 10.94 6.32 5.52 6.51 6.51 7.93 S.TS 15.02 13.65 11.24 $15.02 6.68 5.52 1.97 72.58 $5.54 69.87 77.00 50.80 115.63 74.15 56.31 70.49 70.49 71.95 65.35 59.39 64.12 63.00 $115.63 75.93 71.95 50.80 MCMORan#29Financial Analysis Precedent M&A Transactions - Valuation Summary Metric 2012E Cash Flow (SMM) 2013E Cash Flow ($MM) 2012E EBITDAX ($MM) 2013E EBITDAX (SMM) Proved Reserves (Bcfe) LQ Production (Mcfed) Estimates as per MMR Operating Model EVERCORE PARTNERS Precedent Corporate Transactions - Valuation Summary Data 132.2 119.1 175.4 175.1 208.5 133,809 Low 145. 10.0x 145x 12.0x Relevant Multiples $8.00 / Mcfe $20,000/ Mcfed Selected Enterprise Value Range Add: Cash Less: Debt Less: Preferred Shares Implied Equity Value High 18.0x 15.0x 17.0x 15.5 $12.00 / Mcfe $25,000/ Mcfed 24 Diluted Shares Outstanding Implied Equity Value per Share Value Range ($MM) Low High $3,028 $2,284 $2,543 $2,101 $1,668 $2,676 $2,500 192 (568) (700) $1,424 164.5 Confidential $8.66 $3,532 $2,894 $2,982 $2,714 $2,502 $3,345 $3,000 192 (568) (700) $1,924 164.9 $11.67 MCMoRan#30Financial Analysis Precedent M&A Transactions - Corporate Takeover Premiums - 100% Cash Consideration Announced Date 11/27/12 Ralcorp Holdings Inc. 11/15/12 11/9/12 11/1/12 10/25/12 10/22/12 10/18/12 10/11/12 10/8/12 9/27/12 9/13/12 9/6/12 9/3/12 5/27/12 S/27/12 3/22/12 5/20/12 S/13/12 5/9/12 5/6/12 7/9/12 6/29/12 3/12/12 2/21/12 2/16/12 Target/Issuer Schiff Nutrition International Inc. Titanium Metals Corporation JDA Software Group Inc. PSS World Medical Inc. Ancestry.com Inc. Onent Express Hotels Ltd. Oshkosh Corporation TPC Group Inc Sealy Corporation Citizen: Republic Bancorp, Inc American Realty Capital Trust, Inc. Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. Kenema Corp. TPC Group Inc Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Coventry Health Care Inc. Focus Media Holding Ltd. Robbins & Myers Inc. Best Buy Co., Inc. AMERIGROUP Corporation Elster Group SE Pacific Capital Bancorp CH Energy Group Inc. CVR Energy, Inc. Buyers/Investors ConAgra Foods, Inc. Reckitt Benckiser LLC Precision Castpart: Corp. RedPrairie Corporation McKesson Corporation Permis/Spectrum The Indian Hotels Company Limited. Carl C. Icalin Innospec Inc. Tempur-Pedic International Inc. FirstMerit Corporation Realty Income Corp. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. IBM First Reserve SKC Capital Partners Health Care REIT, Inc. Actus Inc. The Carlyle Group National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Richard Schulze WellPoint Inc. Melrose Industries PLC UnionBanCal Corporation Fortis Inc. Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P. Mean Median Metric 1 Day Premium 5 Day Premium 1 Month Premium Source: Capital IQ Note: Includes public corporate takeover transactions announced or closed in 2012 YTD between $1.0 billion and $10.0 bilion EVERCORE PARTNERS 25 Transaction Value (MM) Metric $8.72 $8.18 $12.13 $7,045 1,453 3,011 2,213 1,941 1,609 1,825 3,636 1,093 1,015 1,025 2,882 3,155 1,397 1,063 1,469 7,311 3,655 2,570 9,875 5.104 2,881 1.525 1,500 3,231 1 Day Prior 26.2%, 23.9% 44.2% 15.0% 34.3% 9.7% 40.0% 21.0% 16.5% 2.8% 15.3% Low 39.4% 42.0% 16.7% 62.4% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 20.4% 15.5% 47.4% 43.0% 5.8% 60.3% 10.6% 5.7% Selected Valuation Range 26.4% 21.0% Relevant Multiples High 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Implied Equity Value Range Premiums 5 Day Prior 26.69 23.8% 35.7% 32.6% = 31.3% 11.8% 46.0%= 15.7% 15.6% 7.8% 15.0% 3.5% 34.5% 35.0% 14.9% 73.9% = 30.3% 28.1% 35.0⁰ a 44.0% 40.6% 5.8% 60.2% 12.4% 6.7% 27.8% 28.1% Confidential $10.46 $10.23 $15.77 $10.23 1 Month Value Range ($MM) Low High 24.2% 72.7% 35.7% 39.2% 25.8% 3.3% 32.8% 21.5% 12.29 39.2% $11.34 $11.04 $16.98 $16.98 17.5% 8.9% 31.0% 56.7% 15.5% 117.7% 31.09 38.5% 43.7% 20.49 47.2% +6.0% 61.3% 15.5% 36.6% 31.0% MCMORan#31Financial Analysis Research Analyst Recommendations Firm Name Susquehanna Financial Group Ladenburg Thalmann & Co Capital One Southcoast, Inc. EVA Dimensions JP Morgan RBC Capital Markets Howard Weil Inc Iberia Jefferies Guggenheim Securities LLC Analyst Duane Grubert Noel A Parks Richard Tullis Team Coverage Joseph Allman Leo P Mariani Joseph Bachmann Patrick Rigamer Biju Z Perinchenil Robert Cordray Summary Price Targets Recommendation Positive but add underweight underweight sector perform market perform outperform hold bur and Price Targets Max Min Median Average Date 11/29/2012 11/28/2012 11/28/2012 11/28/2012 11/27/2012 11/27/2012 11/27/2012 11/27/2012 11/27/2012 11/26/2012 12-Month Price Target $18.00 21.00 12.00 10.00 15.00 Price Target 26 12.00 20.00 $21.00 10.00 15.00 15.43 Discounted Price Target (1) Analst 12-month price target discounted back to present value at McMoRan's equity cost of capital of 13.3% to estimate a current share price target EVERCORE PARTNERS (1) $15.89 18.53 10.59 8.83 13.24 - 10.59 17.65 Premium/(Discount) to Market 146.2% 17.2% 75.8% 80.9% Analyst Recommendations Sell Confidential Hold 30.0% Buy 50.0% McMoRan#32Financial Analysis Net Asset Value Analysis - Potential Joint Venture Agreement NAV Summary -Potential Joint Venture Evercore also considered the risked net asset value of MMR assuming the Company enters into a hypothetical joint venture agreement - - - MMR would sell a 25.0% working interest in the Ultra-Deep Assets for $800 million in the form of a combination of cash and drilling capex carry $500 million of upfront cash $300 million of drilling capex carry NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and then held flat thereafter Utilizes the NAV Assumptions Partner pays its working interest share of insurance and operating expenses, and after the carry period, its working interest share of capex Partner tax basis step-up based on upfront cash plus the present value of the capex carry Taxable gain taxed at 35% EVERCORE PARTNERS Proved Developed Producing Proved Developed Behind-Pipe Proved Undeveloped Proved Reserves Probable Proved plus Probable Reserves Possible 3P Reserves Ultra Deep Upside (Risked) P&A Developed Properties) Gross Asset Value Less: G&A Less: Insurance Less: Sulphur Reclaimation Expense Pre-Tax Net Asset Value Less: Cash Taxes 27 After-Tax Net Asset Value Add: Cash Add: Upfront Cash from Joint Venture Less: Taxable Gain from Joint Venture Less: Debt Less: Preferred Shares Equity Value Fully Diluted Shares $/Share Discount Rate 8% - 10% 10% - 12% 15%-20% 20%-30% 30% -40% 10% -12% 8% - 10% 12%-15% 8% - 10% 10% 10% 12%-15% Confidential ($ in millions) Commodity Price NYMEX Strip (12/3/12) Low High $253 513 39 $805 90 $895 80 $975 3,333 (212) $4,095 (463) (260) (19) $3,352 (649) $2,704 192 500 (72) (568) (700) $2,056 165.1 $12.46 $258 550 48 $857 128 $985 102 $1,087 4,412 (224) $5,275 (575) (327) (19) $4,354 (933) $3,421 192 500 (72) (300) $3,741 231.9 $16.13 MCMORan#33Financial Analysis Overriding Royalty Interest Analysis - Assumptions Volumes and risking for specific ultra-deep prospects and discoveries (as per MMR estimates) Geologic and mechanical risking was estimated by Evercore and reviewed by MMR's technical team with Evercore Utilized an expected value analysis based on the assumed geologic and mechanical risking Each well has a 200 Bcfe EUR ■ ■ ■ ■ - 1 Lineham Creek Yegua wells begin drillingin January 2014 with an incremental non-operated drilling rig Production for each well of 70 MMcfed held flat for six years, then exponential decline (as per MMR estimates) Condensate is 5% of well stream (8.8 bb1/MMcf); Lineham Creek Yegua wells assumed a condensate ratio of 50.0 bb1/MMcf Wells take 1 year to drill and 6 months to complete with first production after 18 months NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and then held flat thereafter Natural gas prices of ($/Mcfe): 2013E: $3.73; 2014E: $4.10; 2015E: $4.27; 2016E: $4.42; Thereafter: $4.60 flat $0.15 per Mcfe of marketing and transportation costs (as per MMR estimates) ORRI Trust units based on fully-diluted shares as of December 31, 2012 Term of 20 years - Developed using a continuous four rig program through 2014, going to a six rig program in 2015 and finally an eight rig program by 2016, held constant thereafter 5% ORRI Confidential EVERCORE PARTNERS 28 MCMORan#34Financial Analysis Overriding Royalty Interest - Risked Risked Ultra Deep Revenue Marketing and Transportation Costs Severance and Ad Valorem Taxes Net Ultra Deep Revenue Overriding Royalty Interest 5.0% of Revenue Discount Rate 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 15.0% 20.0% Strip $609.9 557.1 509.9 467.8 430.0 338.0 234.3 Overriding Royalty Interest Summary - Risked 2013E $75/$3 $-- $- Price Deck $417.2 381.1 348.9 320.1 294.2 231.3 160.5 Risked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) - Price (Total Value) 2014E $90/54 $54.1 (1.8) $52.3 $2.6 $548.9 501.4 459.0 421.1 387.2 304.4 211.2 2015E $278.1 $105/ $5 $267.4 (8.7) $13.4 $680.6 621.7 569.2 522.2 480.1 377.5 262.0 2016E $542.6 (16.6) (5.5) $520.4 $26.0 2017E 29 $929.1 (26.7) (9.2) $893.3 $44.7 Discount Rate 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% ($ in millions, except per share values) 12.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2018E $1.350.6 (38.8) (12.7) $1,299.1 $65.0 Strip $2.66 2.43 2.22 2.04 2019E 1.88 1.47 1.02 $1.821.9 (52.4) (16.2) $1,753.2 $87.7 Risked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) - Price ($/unit) $75/ $3 2020E $1.82 1.66 1.52 1.40 $2,260.4 (65.1) (21.9) $2,173.4 Price Deck 1.28 1.01 0.70 $108.7 $90/ $4 $2.39 2.19 2.00 1.84 Confidential 1.69 1.33 0.92 2021E $2,406.8 (69.2) (36.0) $2,301.6 $115.1 $105/ $5 $2.97 2.71 2.48 2.28 2.09 1.65 1.14 Based on a $16.90 per share aggregate implied offer value and 229.2 million ORRI Trust units (based on 231.9 million fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date, less couverted options and RSU that roll into Freeport options and RSU:) EVERCORE PARTNERS 2022E $2,456.1 (70.5) (49.6) $2,336.0 $116.8 MCMoRan#35Financial Analysis Overriding Royalty Interest - Unrisked Unrisked Ultra Deep Revenue Marketing and Transportation Costs Severance and Ad Valorem Taxes Net Ultra Deep Revenue Overriding Royalty Interest 5.0% of Revenue Discount Rate (1) 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 15.0% 20.0% Strip $1.177.4 1,062.7 961.6 872.1 792.9 603.9 399.7 2013E $75/$3 Overriding Royalty Interest Summary - Unrisked $801.2 723.2 654.5 593.8 $-- 539.9 411.5 272.7 T Price Deck S-- Unrisked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) - Price (Total Value) 2014E $70.5 (2.3) $68.2 $3.4 2015E 711.6 542.3 359.4 $372.8 $358.6 (2.5) $17.9 $90/$4 $105/$5 $1,056.1 $1.311.0 953.3 1,183.4 862.7 782.6 1,070.9 971.5 883.4 673.2 446.0 2016E $731.5 (22.4) $701.9 $35.1 2017E 30 $1.260.1 (36.2 $1,211.7 $60.6 Discount Rate 8.0% 9.0% ($ in millions, except per share values) 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 15.0% 20.0% 2018E $1,945.4 (53.1) $1,775.3 $88.8 Strip $5.14 4.64 4.20 3.81 2019E 3.46 2.63 1.74 $2,491.9 (71.8) (21.9) $2,398.2 $119.9 Unrisked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) - Price ($/unit) $75/$3 2020E $3.50 3.16 $3,172.6 (91.6) (34.6) 2.86 2.59 2.36 1.80 1.19 $3,046.4 Price Deck $152.3 $90/ $4 $4.61 4.16 3.76 3.41 Confidential 3.10 2.37 1.57 2021E $3,736.9 (107.9) (78.4) $3,550.6 $177.5 $105/$5 $5.72 5.16 4.67 4.24 3.85 2.94 1.95 Based on a $16.90 per share aggregate implied offer value and 2292 million ORRI Trust units (based on 231.9 million fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date, less couverted options and RSUs that roll into Freeport options and RSU:) EVERCORE PARTNERS 2022E $4,201.5 (121.4) (124.0) $3,956.0 $197.8 (¹) McMoRan#36Appendix EVERCORE PARTNERS#37Appendix Unrisked Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Adjusted EBITDA Less: DD&A EBIT Less: Taxes @ 35.0% EBIAT Plus: DD&A Less: Growth Capital Expenditures Unlevered FCF Terminal Value Multiple/Growth Rate PV of Terminal Valme @ 10.0% Plus: Present Value of Unlerered FCF Plus: PV of 0.5 2017E NOL @ 10.0% Implied Enterprise Value WACC 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 4.0x $3.675 3,467 3,272 4.5x 2013E $4,010 3,784 3,572 $175 (396) (221) 396 (500) ($324.9) EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity EBITDA Multiple 5.0x $4,346 4,101 3,872 2014E Summary Results For the Years Ending December 31, 2015E $434 (785) (352) 5.5x $4,681 4,418 4,171 (352) 785 Add: Cach Less: Debt Less: Preferred Shares Implied Equity Value ($315.3) Dihted Share: Outstanding Implied Equity Value per Share 6.0x $5.017 4,735 4,471 $719 (551) $168.4 WACC 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 2016E $939 (652) 258 258 682 (459) $450.5 (0.5%) $5,559 4,837 4,246 2017E 3,755 3,341 $1,142 (637) 314 514 627 (493) $649.2 EBITDA Exit Multiple 0.0% $5,837 5,053 4,417 $1,142 5.0 $3,171 $4,101 $192 ($300) $3,993 231.8 $17.22 Perpetuity Growth Rate Sensitivity Perpetuity Growth Rate 0.5% $6,148 5,291 4.604 Confidential Terminal Value 3TS 151 1.0% $6,497 5.556 4,810 3,088 3,372 3,656 3,940 4,223 12.0% 3,892 4,042 4,205 2,916 3,185 3.453 3,722 3,991 13.0% 3,453 3,575 3,706 13.0% EBITDA and capen projections based on MMR Operating Model Tax depreciation based on existing MMR tax basis and NOL: and a 7-year MACRS depreciation schedule. Valuation date as of October 1, 2012 EVERCORE PARTNERS 31 Perpetuity Growth Rate $1,142 $1,141.7 (399.6) $742.1 $742.1 0.5% $4,362 35,291 $192 ($300) $5,183 232.0 $22.34 1.5% $6,893 5,853 5,038 4,384 3,849 McMoRan

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2021 Financial Overview image

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2021 Financial Overview

Financial

Organic Capital Generation and IFRS Transition Outlook image

Organic Capital Generation and IFRS Transition Outlook

Financial

Acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley Corp. image

Acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley Corp.

Financial

SMBC Group's Financial and Credit Portfolio image

SMBC Group's Financial and Credit Portfolio

Financial

Blue Stripe Fund Summary image

Blue Stripe Fund Summary

Financial

BRI Performance Highlights and Green Initiatives image

BRI Performance Highlights and Green Initiatives

Financial

Latvia Stability Programme Report image

Latvia Stability Programme Report

Financial

International Banking Volume & Growth Summary image

International Banking Volume & Growth Summary

Financial